Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric

[TTP]

That was the biggest criticizm by the Saric doubters. His D and his 3. After the 3 was fixed they started to doubt his ability to be in the NBA (and im not kidding) on the case of his D. Now he is a neutral on D. That means he started playing good D to catch up. I always said he played better D than all the negative hype said he did. But i honestly doubted he would fix it to this point that fast. He is a sophomore in the league. This development to this stage took less than a year and a half! That is insane! Who learns D so fast from being very bad at it? All this DURING a season. Why i never understood the hate for him like he was trash and would never improve. Who was so short in the NBA.
I belive that what he has shown is real. it has gone on long enough so it is steady. He doesnt think about it. And he will improve further. I have never seen him go back in his development after a certain point.
He still has alot to improve on. But even i am impressed to his development. I never dreamed he would go from %0.311 3 pt to .395 for the current season (that is with the bad start) from 3. Personaly i thought he would be around .36-37.
I think his finishing needs to improve, drives need to improve further, back to the basket and ofc D even further as much as he can. And i think he can do it. Even with all the handicaps.
Oh P.S. who ever said he is slow, he isnt he is actually fast for a PF. He has worked on his first step and that part he is not super fast on, but not bad either. But when he is on the move he is very fast and he is a bulldozer.

His 3 point shooting, his defense, and his decision making were all legitimate concerns coming into the season. It's great to see that he's shooting a lot better and I hope it continues, though I don't think he's going to shoot 37%+ going forward.

However, he's not a neutral on defense now. He's not a total liability like I feared he might be, but he's considerably below average for his position.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.

You dont because you had a bet with someone that he wasnt going to shoot .38 % i got your number lol
He isnt considerably below average on D. You are just being stubborn now. Him rocco and simmons and anderson line were actually praized and considered main reasons for winning plenty of games because they can switch on anybody effectively by experts (Celtics for example). So saying he is considerably below average is same as when u said he was the worst of the worst while in fact him being the best when degending isos for players over 30 iso plays for example. You can argue being below avrage now if u want but dont overdo it man. Especially when stats paint a certain picture.

More like I have a bet because I don't think he's going to shoot 38% going forward, not the other way around (which would be circular logic). I'd continue to make that same bet with anyone right now. Seems pretty foolish though to expect someone to sustain a shooting percentage that's not only well above their career average but more or less their peak performance. If he were shooting well below his career average, I wouldn't expect that to be sustainable either. In addition to natural regression, I'd also expect his percentages to go down as he gets more respect as a shooter and he receives fewer wide open opportunities. He's been mostly left wide open this year (96.0% of 3PA with 4+ feet of space, 60.5% with 6+ feet). Fortunately, the greater respect as a shooter will help out the rest of the offense.

The Saric/Roco/Simmons/Anderson line that has played 19 minutes together all season is being praised by experts? That's your evidence that someone is an average defender? You consider that a strong support for your argument?

The bolded is nice but you should keep in mind the sampling bias there. Guys that are perceived as weak iso defenders are more likely to be targeted with isos. I can't find the list but I recall that same list having a number of poor defenders on it for the same reason.

[Arsenal]

I also think the 3PT improvement is real. His mechanics look better, and his shot arc is more consistently pure instead of often being too flat last year.

Corroborating evidence is that his FT% is approaching 90% :-O, which is ridiculously awesome for a 6'10" PF. You don't shoot 90% FT% without being a good (if not great) shooter. It just doesn't happen.

[bobbeaver]

His 3 point shooting, his defense, and his decision making were all legitimate concerns coming into the season. It's great to see that he's shooting a lot better and I hope it continues, though I don't think he's going to shoot 37%+ going forward.

However, he's not a neutral on defense now. He's not a total liability like I feared he might be, but he's considerably below average for his position.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.

You dont because you had a bet with someone that he wasnt going to shoot .38 % i got your number lol
He isnt considerably below average on D. You are just being stubborn now. Him rocco and simmons and anderson line were actually praized and considered main reasons for winning plenty of games because they can switch on anybody effectively by experts (Celtics for example). So saying he is considerably below average is same as when u said he was the worst of the worst while in fact him being the best when degending isos for players over 30 iso plays for example. You can argue being below avrage now if u want but dont overdo it man. Especially when stats paint a certain picture.

The actual bet is at 37% and it was with me. I’m feeling pretty good right now, but he is on a hot streak at the moment. A cold streak will happen at some point, and he could drop a lot when that happens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

[bobbeaver]

His 3 point shooting, his defense, and his decision making were all legitimate concerns coming into the season. It's great to see that he's shooting a lot better and I hope it continues, though I don't think he's going to shoot 37%+ going forward.

However, he's not a neutral on defense now. He's not a total liability like I feared he might be, but he's considerably below average for his position.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.

You dont because you had a bet with someone that he wasnt going to shoot .38 % i got your number lol
He isnt considerably below average on D. You are just being stubborn now. Him rocco and simmons and anderson line were actually praized and considered main reasons for winning plenty of games because they can switch on anybody effectively by experts (Celtics for example). So saying he is considerably below average is same as when u said he was the worst of the worst while in fact him being the best when degending isos for players over 30 iso plays for example. You can argue being below avrage now if u want but dont overdo it man. Especially when stats paint a certain picture.

More like I have a bet because I don't think he's going to shoot 38% going forward, not the other way around (which would be circular logic). I'd continue to make that same bet with anyone right now. Seems pretty foolish though to expect someone to sustain a shooting percentage that's not only well above their career average but more or less their peak performance. If he were shooting well below his career average, I wouldn't expect that to be sustainable either. In addition to natural regression, I'd also expect his percentages to go down as he gets more respect as a shooter and he receives fewer wide open opportunities. He's been mostly left wide open this year (96.0% of 3PA with 4+ feet of space, 60.5% with 6+ feet). Fortunately, the greater respect as a shooter will help out the rest of the offense.

The Saric/Roco/Simmons/Anderson line that has played 19 minutes together all season is being praised by experts? That's your evidence that someone is an average defender? You consider that a strong support for your argument?

The bolded is nice but you should keep in mind the sampling bias there. Guys that are perceived as weak iso defenders are more likely to be targeted with isos. I can't find the list but I recall that same list having a number of poor defenders on it for the same reason.

Well its not like he has had a long NBA career now has he? 1.5 years he has done alot of things that made him have above carrer stats from half a year to half a year. Thats not exactly a stat you should use. If he was 4 years in NBA i would agree with you it would mean something. But he reinvented his game as alot of freshmen and sophomores do. For one his stroke is completely different, he drives differently passes differently, guards differently and so on. As for his shooting percentage its what you call a breakout moment. Like many fresh NBA talents had when they figure things out. Only he had a few of those through 1.5 year NBA career. He had regression in his stroke in first half of the season slowly getting it set. Now you always see the same stroke.
As i said before it might not be .435 he has had in past 2 months, but it can be sustainable at .39.
As for getting open shots i dont think that will change that much due to how he gets those open shots. Its not like the other team backs off him. They are due to double teams on Biid and Simmons and his off the ball movement. Its a product of the game. But he has been successful with some off the screen shots he had aswell, looked very comfortable. I mean he is not Steph he only takes like 4-6 3s.
But as you said if they try not to leave him open so no double teams they will suffer from someone else. He would still be an asset and help with spaceing.
There was a big analysis on how Philly plays D that outside line can switch on anyone succesfully. It came out after the celtics because there was a string of wins due to the fact. If Saric was as bad defender as you say that kind of d would be a disaster since he would be switched on and ISOed all the time. That doesnt happen anymore. Why? BTW i said that line cause i liked that line up alot how they played.

Oh ofc i know that, but his efficiency in doing so, defending vs ISOs was the key, it was very high. Not so much the ranking (although it mattered aswell). Ill try to find it for ya. But i suspect this is the reason he isnt ISOed that much anymore.

[bobbeaver]

1. Saric 0.682 points per possessions
2. J. Grant 0.723
3. Markannen 0.732
4. Cousins 0.735
5. Anthony 0.745
6. T. Young 0.764
7. Gibson 0.771
8. Harden 0.780
9. Simmons 0.820
10. Adams 0.822
.....

And this was back when he had not markedly improved on D mind you.

[TTP]

You dont because you had a bet with someone that he wasnt going to shoot .38 % i got your number lol
He isnt considerably below average on D. You are just being stubborn now. Him rocco and simmons and anderson line were actually praized and considered main reasons for winning plenty of games because they can switch on anybody effectively by experts (Celtics for example). So saying he is considerably below average is same as when u said he was the worst of the worst while in fact him being the best when degending isos for players over 30 iso plays for example. You can argue being below avrage now if u want but dont overdo it man. Especially when stats paint a certain picture.

The actual bet is at 37% and it was with me. I’m feeling pretty good right now, but he is on a hot streak at the moment. A cold streak will happen at some point, and he could drop a lot when that happens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

[bobbeaver]

The actual bet is at 37% and it was with me. I’m feeling pretty good right now, but he is on a hot streak at the moment. A cold streak will happen at some point, and he could drop a lot when that happens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

Read your own replay post lol dont piggy back
I answer everything there and also look bellow. P.S. his peak is .435 as i said not .39

[TTP]

im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

Read your own replay post lol dont piggy back
I answer everything there and also look bellow. P.S. his peak is .435 as i said not .39

You said 2 months. I gave you the numbers from 2 months ago to today. You must be choosing an even more arbitrary starting point that makes his shooting look as favorable as possible.

[bobbeaver]

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

Read your own replay post lol dont piggy back
I answer everything there and also look bellow. P.S. his peak is .435 as i said not .39

You said 2 months. I gave you the numbers from 2 months ago to today. You must be choosing an even more arbitrary starting point that makes his shooting look as favorable as possible.

Does it matter when his peak was? its still a peak is it not? Also this month one game threw off the numbers to bellow .40 right after that 5 day break.

[Sixerscan]

The actual bet is at 37% and it was with me. I’m feeling pretty good right now, but he is on a hot streak at the moment. A cold streak will happen at some point, and he could drop a lot when that happens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

I've heard that a 750 attempt sample is still ~50% noise so I'm not sure how much value I should put into that

Gotta just watch the games sometimes man. Dario can shoot now.

[TTP]

im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

I've heard that a 750 attempt sample is still ~50% noise so I'm not sure how much value I should put into that

Gotta just watch the games sometimes man. Dario can shoot now.

Right and I don't believe the 31% is a realistic forecast either.

I agreed that his shooting seems improved. I just don't think he's a 37% shooter going forward.

[bobbeaver]

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

I've heard that a 750 attempt sample is still ~50% noise so I'm not sure how much value I should put into that

Gotta just watch the games sometimes man. Dario can shoot now.

Right and I don't believe the 31% is a realistic forecast either.

I agreed that his shooting seems improved. I just don't think he's a 37% shooter going forward.

So for you to be on board on Saric and approve what numbers would he have to have?
What would he have to do? No trolling, seriously asking your honest opinion.
I mean i guess his D is a partly a subjective thing. His defensive +/- is 0 and as he is avg 27min per game on the 3rd best defense in the league (if im not mistaken, i heard it thrown around but didnt check it my self, but we are very good on D). It must count for something. Thats why i think he has improved alot and is not a very bad defender. If he was the team would suffer since he is in most of the game. That doesnt seam to be the case.

[TTP]

I've heard that a 750 attempt sample is still ~50% noise so I'm not sure how much value I should put into that

Gotta just watch the games sometimes man. Dario can shoot now.

Right and I don't believe the 31% is a realistic forecast either.

I agreed that his shooting seems improved. I just don't think he's a 37% shooter going forward.

So for you to be on board on Saric and approve what numbers would he have to have?
What would he have to do? No trolling, seriously asking your honest opinion.
I mean i guess his D is a partly a subjective thing. His defensive +/- is 0 and as he is avg 27min per game on the 3rd best defense in the league (if im not mistaken, i heard it thrown around but didnt check it my self, but we are very good on D). It must count for something. Thats why i think he has improved alot and is not a very bad defender. If he was the team would suffer since he is in most of the game. That doesnt seam to be the case.

I'm not sure about an exact number, but if he were shooting in the low 40s for the season, it would be a lot less likely that 38% is an outlier.

By +/-, I'm assuming you're referencing BPM. 0 should still be below average for PFs. DRPM has Dario 76th out of 97 PFs.

As far as the bolded, Redick is playing on the same unit. That doesn't mean he's a non-negative defender. Our defense is stellar because we have 3 elite defenders (Embiid, Simmons, Covington) who are all among the top defenders at their position and a good defensive backup center in Amir. I'd imagine we'd be the #1 defense with stronger defenders replacing Redick and Saric.

[Kobblehead]

At this point, I can't complain. Dario has meshed well into being a productive member of the starting unit. I'll always have an underlying desire to upgrade into a better athlete with length at the position, but until Dario starts standing out negatively, I'll gladly take what he's been giving us.

[Von Bismarck]

Been checking some basic stats for PF's. Dario is ;


#1 FT % ( .884 )
#5 APG ( 2.7 )
#6 AST/TO ( 1.33 )
#10 3PT % ( .380 )
#11 PPG ( 14.0 )
#13 RPG ( 7.0 )
#14 DBL-DBL ( 8 )
#17 FG % ( .443 )
#17 SPG ( .073 )

[bobbeaver]

Right and I don't believe the 31% is a realistic forecast either.

I agreed that his shooting seems improved. I just don't think he's a 37% shooter going forward.

So for you to be on board on Saric and approve what numbers would he have to have?
What would he have to do? No trolling, seriously asking your honest opinion.
I mean i guess his D is a partly a subjective thing. His defensive +/- is 0 and as he is avg 27min per game on the 3rd best defense in the league (if im not mistaken, i heard it thrown around but didnt check it my self, but we are very good on D). It must count for something. Thats why i think he has improved alot and is not a very bad defender. If he was the team would suffer since he is in most of the game. That doesnt seam to be the case.

I'm not sure about an exact number, but if he were shooting in the low 40s for the season, it would be a lot less likely that 38% is an outlier.

By +/-, I'm assuming you're referencing BPM. 0 should still be below average for PFs. DRPM has Dario 76th out of 97 PFs.

As far as the bolded, Redick is playing on the same unit. That doesn't mean he's a non-negative defender. Our defense is stellar because we have 3 elite defenders (Embiid, Simmons, Covington) who are all among the top defenders at their position and a good defensive backup center in Amir. I'd imagine we'd be the #1 defense with stronger defenders replacing Redick and Saric.

Can you write again the first paragraph? I didnt understand what you said.

No his BPM is 1.1 his DBPM is 0.0. Still you are counting that with the fact he had a slow start as a Defender. Last year his BPM was -2.2 and DBPM -0.2. Wasnt he also among last in DRPM at the start of the season? So he made up alot of ground rather fast. The fact that he went from quite a negative to close to or is positive (depending on the stat) fast and up by atleast lets say 15 places among PFs in 2 months (although its more like month n a half) should indicate something. Dont you agree?

As for Redidck n Saric being in the line up, no matter how good the other 3 on D are you simply cant plug that hole if both are horrible. You would get punished on 3 or drives or any number ways. Defenitively you will not be 3rd in d league. You kinda makeing my point here.

[TTP]

So for you to be on board on Saric and approve what numbers would he have to have?
What would he have to do? No trolling, seriously asking your honest opinion.
I mean i guess his D is a partly a subjective thing. His defensive +/- is 0 and as he is avg 27min per game on the 3rd best defense in the league (if im not mistaken, i heard it thrown around but didnt check it my self, but we are very good on D). It must count for something. Thats why i think he has improved alot and is not a very bad defender. If he was the team would suffer since he is in most of the game. That doesnt seam to be the case.

I'm not sure about an exact number, but if he were shooting in the low 40s for the season, it would be a lot less likely that 38% is an outlier.

By +/-, I'm assuming you're referencing BPM. 0 should still be below average for PFs. DRPM has Dario 76th out of 97 PFs.

As far as the bolded, Redick is playing on the same unit. That doesn't mean he's a non-negative defender. Our defense is stellar because we have 3 elite defenders (Embiid, Simmons, Covington) who are all among the top defenders at their position and a good defensive backup center in Amir. I'd imagine we'd be the #1 defense with stronger defenders replacing Redick and Saric.

Can you write again the first paragraph? I didnt understand what you said.

No his BPM is 1.1 his DBPM is 0.0. Still you are counting that with the fact he had a slow start as a Defender. Last year his BPM was -2.2 and DBPM -0.2. Wasnt he also among last in DRPM at the start of the season? So he made up alot of ground rather fast. The fact that he went from quite a negative to close to or is positive (depending on the stat) fast and up by atleast lets say 15 places among PFs in 2 months (although its more like month n a half) should indicate something. Dont you agree?

As for Redidck n Saric being in the line up, no matter how good the other 3 on D are you simply cant plug that hole if both are horrible. You would get punished on 3 or drives or any number ways. Defenitively you will not be 3rd in d league. You kinda makeing my point here.

Rephrasing the first paragraph, the higher his shooting percentage is over a growing sample of data (whether it be season, career, etc), the higher his real shooting percentage going forward likely is. However, I'm not going to completely eliminate a previous season's worth of info, and certainly am not going to eliminate the beginning of the current season. He might be a better shooter now, but that doesn't mean that the percentage he's shot the current season (or worse, the past couple of months) is the best representation of what I'd expect him to shoot going forward. I'd instead look at his career average and then weigh the current season a bit more. He's shooting 33.8% career. After considering that he's a better shooter now than a year ago, I'd probably forecast him to be closer to a 35% shooter from 3 going forward.

In order for me to forecast him as a 38% shooter going forward, I'd probably want to see his career average somewhere around 36.5%, which means he'd need to be shooting ~45% so far this season and somewhere around 41-42% at the end of the year.

The defensive stats indicate that he's better than last season, but that doesn't mean that he's an average defender for his position. Most bigs are positive defenders. If he's neutral, that makes him a below average defensive power forward.

Not sure what you're saying in your last paragraph. Your initial argument a few posts back seemed to be that Saric can't be that bad of a defender if he's able to be a part of a great defense. I fully disagree with that statement, as Kyrie, Tony Parker, and Carmelo are all part of top defenses this season while being terrible defenders.

I also disagree with your claim that a great defense can't have two defensive liabilities. Embiid almost singlehandedly makes us a great defense, and he, Simmons, and Covington are all top defenders for their positions and with their versatility, are able to cover for the defensive shortcomings of Redick, Saric, Bayless, etc. We have 206 minutes of Embiid/Redick/Bayless lineups and they give up 100.4 points per possession, which would be the top defense in the league by a solid margin (the Celtics are currently 1st giving up 102.0). Going back to the previous season, we have another 77 minutes of Embiid/Sergio/Stauskas giving up 98.1 PPP, which would be the top defense by a massive margin. Last season, Embiid/Stauskas/Saric lineups gave up 97.9 PPP in 144 minutes. Embiid/Sergio/Stauskas lineups gave up 99.4 in 161 minutes.

Your logic is "We're a great defense, and a great defense can't have multiple poor defenders, therefore Saric must not be a poor defender." Obviously there's a lot of overlap in those samples from last year and the size of the samples is far from conclusive (though still 400+ minutes of data), but all of the evidence we have points to Embiid being good enough defensively to support multiple defensive liabilities, enough to counter the bolded part of your claim and ultimately weaken your argument.

[bobbeaver]

I'm not sure about an exact number, but if he were shooting in the low 40s for the season, it would be a lot less likely that 38% is an outlier.

By +/-, I'm assuming you're referencing BPM. 0 should still be below average for PFs. DRPM has Dario 76th out of 97 PFs.

As far as the bolded, Redick is playing on the same unit. That doesn't mean he's a non-negative defender. Our defense is stellar because we have 3 elite defenders (Embiid, Simmons, Covington) who are all among the top defenders at their position and a good defensive backup center in Amir. I'd imagine we'd be the #1 defense with stronger defenders replacing Redick and Saric.

Can you write again the first paragraph? I didnt understand what you said.

No his BPM is 1.1 his DBPM is 0.0. Still you are counting that with the fact he had a slow start as a Defender. Last year his BPM was -2.2 and DBPM -0.2. Wasnt he also among last in DRPM at the start of the season? So he made up alot of ground rather fast. The fact that he went from quite a negative to close to or is positive (depending on the stat) fast and up by atleast lets say 15 places among PFs in 2 months (although its more like month n a half) should indicate something. Dont you agree?

As for Redidck n Saric being in the line up, no matter how good the other 3 on D are you simply cant plug that hole if both are horrible. You would get punished on 3 or drives or any number ways. Defenitively you will not be 3rd in d league. You kinda makeing my point here.

Rephrasing the first paragraph, the higher his shooting percentage is over a growing sample of data (whether it be season, career, etc), the higher his real shooting percentage going forward likely is. However, I'm not going to completely eliminate a previous season's worth of info, and certainly am not going to eliminate the beginning of the current season. He might be a better shooter now, but that doesn't mean that the percentage he's shot the current season (or worse, the past couple of months) is the best representation of what I'd expect him to shoot going forward. I'd instead look at his career average and then weigh the current season a bit more. He's shooting 33.8% career. After considering that he's a better shooter now than a year ago, I'd probably forecast him to be closer to a 35% shooter from 3 going forward.

In order for me to forecast him as a 38% shooter going forward, I'd probably want to see his career average somewhere around 36.5%, which means he'd need to be shooting ~45% so far this season and somewhere around 41-42% at the end of the year.

The defensive stats indicate that he's better than last season, but that doesn't mean that he's an average defender for his position. Most bigs are positive defenders. If he's neutral, that makes him a below average defensive power forward.

Not sure what you're saying in your last paragraph. Your initial argument a few posts back seemed to be that Saric can't be that bad of a defender if he's able to be a part of a great defense. I fully disagree with that statement, as Kyrie, Tony Parker, and Carmelo are all part of top defenses this season while being terrible defenders.

I also disagree with your claim that a great defense can't have two defensive liabilities. Embiid almost singlehandedly makes us a great defense, and he, Simmons, and Covington are all top defenders for their positions and with their versatility, are able to cover for the defensive shortcomings of Redick, Saric, Bayless, etc. We have 206 minutes of Embiid/Redick/Bayless lineups and they give up 100.4 points per possession, which would be the top defense in the league by a solid margin (the Celtics are currently 1st giving up 102.0). Going back to the previous season, we have another 77 minutes of Embiid/Sergio/Stauskas giving up 98.1 PPP, which would be the top defense by a massive margin. Last season, Embiid/Stauskas/Saric lineups gave up 97.9 PPP in 144 minutes. Embiid/Sergio/Stauskas lineups gave up 99.4 in 161 minutes.

Obviously there's a lot of overlap in those samples from last year and the size of the samples are far from conclusive, but all of the evidence we have points to Embiid being good enough defensively to support multiple defensive liabilities, enough to seriously call into question your bolded claim.

You didnt answer my initial question. What would it take or what numbers should he have for you to be on board on Saric?

And Im sorry but this math just seams silly. That kind of math is almost arbitrary because in early carreers it changes alot. only after 4 years can you make any real assumptions on Career stats and frankly doesnt make any sense. It just seams a nice way to twist thing to make him worse no matter how well he shoots. Occams razor says how he does this season overall is an indication where he will be in couple of years. I wouldnt even count the difference between first and second year because it usually is a big margin for any player. While it is hard to predict how he will shoot as a mature NBA player you can make certain assumtions on his trajectory (baring injuries) by visual cue and that years stats or development during that year. For example last night 2 3s were made i belive on a set defender over his hand no hesitation. You couldnt imagine him doing it earlier this season.And his FTs are a good indication of his shooting form and trajectory.

As for D ill stand by my argument because of the D sixers play. If you play all switching D bad players will get exposed and bring down team D simple as that. Biid could save some things but not all lapses simple as that. And in NBA there are a few teams with all excellent defenders and are not so high up, let me rephrase with one bad or neutral defenders. 2 players would expose them.

" If he's neutral, that makes him a below average defensive power forward." And there you go we finally agree. You said earlier (how it started) he was way bellow average but not attrocious, I said he is neutral but you can make a case he is bellow average.
Can we now agree he is bellow average and not waaayyy bellow?
We still can argue of his D trajectory if you want

[TTP]

You didnt answer my initial question. What would it take or what numbers should he have for you to be on board on Saric?

And Im sorry but this math just seams silly. That kind of math is almost arbitrary because in early carreers it changes alot. only after 4 years can you make any real assumptions on Career stats and frankly doesnt make any sense. It just seams a nice way to twist thing to make him worse no matter how well he shoots. Occams razor says how he does this season overall is an indication where he will be in couple of years. I wouldnt even count the difference between first and second year because it usually is a big margin for any player. While it is hard to predict how he will shoot as a mature NBA player you can make certain assumtions on his trajectory (baring injuries) by visual cue and that years stats or development during that year. For example last night 2 3s were made i belive on a set defender over his hand no hesitation. You couldnt imagine him doing it earlier this season.And his FTs are a good indication of his shooting form and trajectory.

As for D ill stand by my argument because of the D sixers play. If you play all switching D bad players will get exposed and bring down team D simple as that. Biid could save some things but not all lapses simple as that. And in NBA there are a few teams with all excellent defenders and are not so high up, let me rephrase with one bad or neutral defenders. 2 players would expose them.

" If he's neutral, that makes him a below average defensive power forward." And there you go we finally agree. You said earlier (how it started) he was way bellow average but not attrocious, I said he is neutral but you can make a case he is bellow average.
Can we now agree he is bellow average and not waaayyy bellow?
We still can argue of his D trajectory if you want

I answered your question with my initial post where I stated that I think he'll be a rotation contributor if he continues to shoot well. I'll copy it again and bold it for you so you can read it again.

His 3 point shooting, his defense, and his decision making were all legitimate concerns coming into the season. It's great to see that he's shooting a lot better and I hope it continues, though I don't think he's going to shoot 37%+ going forward.

However, he's not a neutral on defense now. He's not a total liability like I feared he might be, but he's considerably below average for his position.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.

I'm not sure if you understand what the word arbitrary means. I'm attempting to account for the entire sample of data to draw conclusions. An example of being arbitrary would be stating that only after 4 years can you make any real assumptions about someone's career stats.

I don't understand the bolded statement at all. If you were going to create a probability distribution around Dario's 3 point percentage outcomes going forward and you have 2 years worth of data, you're likely going to center that distribution around a number between the outcomes of those two years, weighted more towards the second year because of recency and potential improvement. So yes, no matter what he shoots this year, I'd forecast his future shooting to be below what he shoots this year because you still have to account for what he did in his first season.

I still think it's pretty likely that he's considerably below average on defense for his position. DRPM considers him a 22nd percentile player for his position this year after being 15th percentile last season. He doesn't generate stocks and my eye test doesn't suggest that the data is wrong.

[Wilfried]

I like the Dario - Elfrid Payton trade more and more and more

Thank you Sam Hinkie