'17-'18 POY discussion

[E-Balla]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

[therealbig3]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

Disagree on Kemba. I think he's good, but not HM good.

I'm probably overlooking Oladipo though, mainly because he's Oladipo and I have this preconceived notion that he sucks based on his career up until this point, and also because I just haven't watched much Indiana. The numbers certainly say he belongs in the top 5 though, which really surprises me. Indiana is also at 7th in the league offensively, which means he's not putting up empty numbers either.

[ardee]

Hmm, the above posts gave me some insight into adjusting for missed games. I think I would currently roll with:

1. Harden
2. Westbrook
3. Curry
4. LeBron
5. Giannis

HM: Davis, Butler, Durant

2-4 have room to move up a fair bit.

I'm not punishing LeBron for his team's failings.

[ardee]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

What's wrong with KD? He's clearly inferior to Curry, but 26-7-6 on 50/40/90 splits, leading the league in blocks, on a 9 SRS team isn't worth an HM?

[E-Balla]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

Disagree on Kemba. I think he's good, but not HM good.

I'm probably overlooking Oladipo though, mainly because he's Oladipo and I have this preconceived notion that he sucks based on his career up until this point, and also because I just haven't watched much Indiana. The numbers certainly say he belongs in the top 5 though, which really surprises me. Indiana is also at 7th in the league offensively, which means he's not putting up empty numbers either.

I think everyone is sleeping on Kemba because his team is 20-28. Charlotte is a +5.1 team when he's on the floor (which is what I care about more than their record and total numbers because he can't control when he's on the bench). Their record might be 20-28 but they have a positive SRS thanks to him and only him.

Offensively we all realize he is a beast (if you didn't know Charlotte has a 101 ORTG with him on the bench the last 2 years combined and a 112 ORTG with him on the floor) but I think everyone is sleeping on his defense. Even at his size he's one of the best defensive Gs in the league (and I think a serious All-D candidate) based 100% off hustle. He's 2nd among all PGs in shots contested (under Lowry), 2nd in charges taken (under Jrue), and he leads all starting PGs in DRAPM. I think he 100% has a case for HM and possibly even the top 5.

And try to watch more Oladipo. He's a completely different player offensively. Like what he's doing now vs what he did every other year is completely different. Dude is now probably the 3rd or 4th best 3 point shooter off the bounce right now which is crazy to think about because through his while career he wasn't particularly good spotting up. Its completely opened his game up.

[dhsilv2]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

Possible minutes is rather misleading given the warriors can win games with curry playing low minutes, in part because of his great play. Missed games are a much better story and maybe we asterisk games a player can't play more minutes in.

[E-Balla]

I'm not punishing LeBron for his team's failings.

And what about Lebron's failings? He's possibly the worst defender in the league right now. Like its obvious when watching and the numbers? By RAPM Lebron is the 8th best offensive player in the league and 480th best defensive player. The Cavs are the 28th ranked defense in the league and he manages to lead all those guys in having the worst defensive on/off rating and the worst defensive on court rating. He's made plays like this:

Read on Twitter

A habit. If Lebron is a +6 offensively he's a -5.5 defensively. Dude is barely playing at an average level right now. I know its easy to ignore defense for big numbers but we went through this last year with Isaiah Thomas. Just because his name is Lebron James it doesn't make him any better.

What's wrong with KD? He's clearly inferior to Curry, but 26-7-6 on 50/40/90 splits, leading the league in blocks, on a 9 SRS team isn't worth an HM?

He's isn't leading the league in blocks and his defense is clearly a step down from last year. And offensively you mentioned his shooting splits but his turnovers are way up, his TS% is the lowest its been since 2012, his ORTG is the lowest its been since 2012, and his relative ORTG is the lowest it's been since 2009. Just watching him he doesn't seem to have that same ferocity headed to the rim and it seems to me like Curry is floating him. They're only a +5 team with KD on the court without Steph. That's not that impressive. Plus for the second straight year they improve by leaps and bounds when he's not playing. They have a +15.9 point differential in the games he's missed and if you take out the Sacramento game where they sat both him and Steph they've been undefeated and played at a +18.9 level when he's out. I just can't rank a guy that's dipping in production to the point where he's not top 10 in raw production, a guy that doesn't make an impact, and a guy that in the general sense doesn't matter for his team in my top 5. I need something to latch on to besides his reputation to rate him highly.

[E-Balla]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

Possible minutes is rather misleading given the warriors can win games with curry playing low minutes, in part because of his great play. Missed games are a much better story and maybe we asterisk games a player can't play more minutes in.

He's worse if we go by missed games. He's missed 30% of their games. That's a significant amount of the season. If he ends the season having only played 57 games how can you rate him over guys like Giannis, Jimmy, and Westbrook that had to carry their teams all year long?

[dhsilv2]

Curry has played 48% of his possible minutes. Harden has played 63%. You're basically saying Curry is 30+% better than Harden. So if you have Curry as a +6 guy Harden is a +4.5.... Which now that I think about it sounds about right. Seems I need to bump Curry into my top 5. I'd have the same top 5 as you then just swap out Harden with AD and take Lebron and KD way off that HM and add Dipo and Kemba.

Possible minutes is rather misleading given the warriors can win games with curry playing low minutes, in part because of his great play. Missed games are a much better story and maybe we asterisk games a player can't play more minutes in.

He's worse if we go by missed games. He's missed 30% of their games. That's a significant amount of the season. If he ends the season having only played 57 games how can you rate him over guys like Giannis, Jimmy, and Westbrook that had to carry their teams all year long?

Under ~65 I would have a hard time calling anyone POY unless the competition was bad. But comparing Curry to say Butler, I'm rather OK with a big minute gap. I'm less ok with a huge game gap.

[Missing Rings]

1. Butler
2. Harden
3. Curry
4. Westbrook
5. Durant
6. Giannis
7. LeBron
8. Davis

[freypies]

I personally do not care too much about games played as long as you have played a significant number and have clearly shown that you can consistently keep it up.

For me, so far:

1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Westbrook
4. DeRozan
5. LeBron

[E-Balla]

Possible minutes is rather misleading given the warriors can win games with curry playing low minutes, in part because of his great play. Missed games are a much better story and maybe we asterisk games a player can't play more minutes in.

He's worse if we go by missed games. He's missed 30% of their games. That's a significant amount of the season. If he ends the season having only played 57 games how can you rate him over guys like Giannis, Jimmy, and Westbrook that had to carry their teams all year long?

Under ~65 I would have a hard time calling anyone POY unless the competition was bad. But comparing Curry to say Butler, I'm rather OK with a big minute gap. I'm less ok with a huge game gap.

Effectively they're the same thing. Curry plays 33 mpg to Butler's 37. The reason for bringing up the minutes gap is to say "Curry got hurt in short PT" which I think does matter.

[dhsilv2]

He's worse if we go by missed games. He's missed 30% of their games. That's a significant amount of the season. If he ends the season having only played 57 games how can you rate him over guys like Giannis, Jimmy, and Westbrook that had to carry their teams all year long?

Under ~65 I would have a hard time calling anyone POY unless the competition was bad. But comparing Curry to say Butler, I'm rather OK with a big minute gap. I'm less ok with a huge game gap.

Effectively they're the same thing. Curry plays 33 mpg to Butler's 37. The reason for bringing up the minutes gap is to say "Curry got hurt in short PT" which I think does matter.

For a career recap I can see "injury prone" being a concern. For POY as long as a player is available for a reasonable number of a games, I don't see the issue. I understand where people disagree, but Curry is prepping for 20+ playoff games, Butler is being asked to get his team to the playoffs. I take into account the expectations on the player, after all the warriors are far far more likely to give curry an extra game or two off to be safe than the wolves with butler.

[Outside]

He's worse if we go by missed games. He's missed 30% of their games. That's a significant amount of the season. If he ends the season having only played 57 games how can you rate him over guys like Giannis, Jimmy, and Westbrook that had to carry their teams all year long?

Under ~65 I would have a hard time calling anyone POY unless the competition was bad. But comparing Curry to say Butler, I'm rather OK with a big minute gap. I'm less ok with a huge game gap.

Effectively they're the same thing. Curry plays 33 mpg to Butler's 37. The reason for bringing up the minutes gap is to say "Curry got hurt in short PT" which I think does matter.

I'll dock a guy who misses 15-20 RS games, but it's not disqualifying. This is POY including playoffs, and if Curry misses 20 RS games but plays at the level he's demonstrated in 62 RS games and has a stellar PS, I'd have no problem voting him for POY.

Giannis, Butler, and Westbrook deserve credit if they carry their teams as iron men in the RS, but it's not as if each doesn't have his own flaws in the RS resume.

Giannis -- the Bucks have underperformed as a team, currently 6th in the East and only four games over .500. For being the point forward of the future, he has low assist stats -- 4.7 APG and 23.7 AST%, nowhere near the top 20 in either category. His shooting percentages outside of three feet are abysmal -- 37.7 for 3-10 ft, 38.9 for 10-16 ft, 34.7 for 16-3pt, and 31.0 on threes.

Butler -- his basic stats of 21.7 pts, 5.4 reb, and 5.0 ast are well below other candidates, and he trails other candidates in BBRef advanced stats like ORtg, win shares, box plus/minus, and VORP. Much of his candidacy is based on turning Minnesota around and the improvement the Wolves have shown over last season, and he does deserve credit for that, but part of the reason that change is so dramatic is because they underperformed drastically last season (many people had them picked to be in the 4-8 range in the West last season). He's also not the only change from last season; Taj Gibson also deserves credit for injecting defense and toughness, and Jamal Crawford has added much-needed bench scoring.

Westbrook -- the Thunder have been coming around, but they still don't look like the viable contenders in the West they were expected to be. Westbrook's brute force stats of points, rebounds, and assists are once again impressive, but his TS% of 51.9 is well below the league average of 55.6 and not even in the same area code as other candidates, most (all?) of whom are above 60 percent.

Those guys do deserve credit for leading their teams, but I still have them in the bottom tier of candidates, below the top tier of Harden and Curry and a middle tier of LeBron, DeRozan, and Irving.

Again, no reason why missing 20 games in the RS should be disqualifying for POY if a guy shows himself to be the best, most impactful player in 20 PS games.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't see how Harden can't be at the top of the list at this point based on stats, team performance, and ability to mesh with Chris Paul, which I thought would be a problem. Based on the eye test, he is just a spectacularly skilled offensive player who can shoot from deep, drive, finish, and dish. Penetrating and kicking to a perimeter shooter at a predetermined spot doesn't take special skill, but where I see him as a gifted passer is on his interior passes, because some of those are spectacular. And from what I've seen (not just based on a couple of plays), he's far better on defense this year than at any time in Houston.

Since this is a RS plus PS award, it will come down to the PS. Harden is in the lead now, but other guys are close enough that they can overtake him in the playoffs.

Y'know I'm a Harden fan, but actually the two guys I have atop my list are Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.

I'll start of by noting that I have a kind of "but did it really hurt?" approach to considering injuries in POY discussions. So, Bill Walton, for example, I quite agree with him winning the MVP in '77-78 but he had no prayer when we did the Retro POY for that year. He missed a ton of time in the regular season but the team was so good when he was on the floor that it basically clinched the 1st seed in the West, so all's well that end's well. He was the most valuable player in the league when he played, and he was valuable enough to get his team to the #1 seed. Good enough for me. But of course come playoff time Walton's inability to play like he'd been doing meant that his team went nowhere during the most important season.

So right now, Curry leads the league in raw +/- despite his missed time. When a player is so clearly the most impactful player in the league, and missed time isn't keeping his team from being the toast of the league, and he still has experienced more raw "winning" than everyone else...why overthink it? MVP in a nutshell.

Jimmy Butler is the other guy who comes to mind. Butler's team has actually done about as well when he's on the floor as Harden, so that's no small thing. But really the thing that gives Butler a serious argument in my mind is the possibly culture-changing influence he's had on the Wolves this year.

I think injuries matter. Who cares if they've won without him Curry has won 29 games. There's been tons of people that have won more games and contributed more to wins in total. In 78 Bill Walton won 48 games. The runner up in MVP, George Gervin, won 52. Even in 58 games there's a legit argument Walton lead his team to more wins than anyone else in the league over the whole 82 games. That argument isn't there for Curry.

But broken down in finer detail, raw +/-, Curry's already done more "winning" the entire league despite the missed time.

I do understand your argument, but know that my perspective is one where I look for reasons to ignore blips so as to settle on the actual top players.

[bondom34]

Just for fun checked BBR's MVP probabilities. Harden had a massive lead last I looked a week or 2 ago and Lebron a clear 2nd. Now Harden relatively close to Curry (about 43 percent chance to 28). He's been scorching hot at this point. Not even sure where my top 5 is right now. Westbrook approaching it too. Lebron falling, Curry flying up. Butler's missed a couple games so not really sure where to go there.

[dhsilv2]

Just for fun checked BBR's MVP probabilities. Harden had a massive lead last I looked a week or 2 ago and Lebron a clear 2nd. Now Harden relatively close to Curry (about 43 percent chance to 28). He's been scorching hot at this point. Not even sure where my top 5 is right now. Westbrook approaching it too. Lebron falling, Curry flying up. Butler's missed a couple games so not really sure where to go there.

Injuries this year are really making the choices difficult along with a lot of turnover on teams that lead to slow starts (or in the rockets case..the opposite?).

[Missing Rings]

Butler -- his basic stats of 21.7 pts, 5.4 reb, and 5.0 ast are well below other candidates, and he trails other candidates in BBRef advanced stats like ORtg, win shares, box plus/minus, and VORP. Much of his candidacy is based on turning Minnesota around and the improvement the Wolves have shown over last season, and he does deserve credit for that, but part of the reason that change is so dramatic is because they underperformed drastically last season (many people had them picked to be in the 4-8 range in the West last season). He's also not the only change from last season; Taj Gibson also deserves credit for injecting defense and toughness, and Jamal Crawford has added much-needed bench scoring.

Quick retort: Once Jimmy Butler put his foot on the gas pedal and said "This is my team", his numbers have been phenomenal. 24.2/5.2/5.3 with only 1.7 turnovers and 2.1 steals is nothing to scoff at. Considering he has a free throw rate of 46% in those games and is making his 3's at a decent clip (36%), he is an elite offensive and defensive presence. His on/off of +16.7 is comparable to any player in the NBA, and his on-court rating of +8.9 is impressive given the fact it is 1) Highest of the starters by a comfortable margin and 2) One of only 6 players on the team to have a positive net rating.

There is no point in using statistics like ORtg, Win Shares, and VORP because all of these are based upon box-score statistics which do not capture much of what Jimmy Butler is bringing to the table. They do a piss-poor job at capturing defense, and they do not capture what you do on offense without the ball (or with the ball if what you do doesn't show up on the stat sheet).

The things that ultimately stick out with Jimmy Butler are leadership and defense. Butler has been a better defensive player than every other player listed on most top 5 lists so far, and it isn't close.

I don't think you are making this mistake, but many people are looking at box-scores, determining their "best" players, and then watching them play. What should be happening is we are watching them play and utilizing the box-score as support to what we have seen, not the other way around.

[dhsilv2]

Butler -- his basic stats of 21.7 pts, 5.4 reb, and 5.0 ast are well below other candidates, and he trails other candidates in BBRef advanced stats like ORtg, win shares, box plus/minus, and VORP. Much of his candidacy is based on turning Minnesota around and the improvement the Wolves have shown over last season, and he does deserve credit for that, but part of the reason that change is so dramatic is because they underperformed drastically last season (many people had them picked to be in the 4-8 range in the West last season). He's also not the only change from last season; Taj Gibson also deserves credit for injecting defense and toughness, and Jamal Crawford has added much-needed bench scoring.

Quick retort: Once Jimmy Butler put his foot on the gas pedal and said "This is my team", his numbers have been phenomenal. 24.2/5.2/5.3 with only 1.7 turnovers and 2.1 steals is nothing to scoff at. Considering he has a free throw rate of 46% in those games and is making his 3's at a decent clip (36%), he is an elite offensive and defensive presence. His on/off of +16.7 is comparable to any player in the NBA, and his on-court rating of +8.9 is impressive given the fact it is 1) Highest of the starters by a comfortable margin and 2) One of only 6 players on the team to have a positive net rating.

There is no point in using statistics like ORtg, Win Shares, and VORP because all of these are based upon box-score statistics which do not capture much of what Jimmy Butler is bringing to the table. They do a piss-poor job at capturing defense, and they do not capture what you do on offense without the ball (or with the ball if what you do doesn't show up on the stat sheet).

The things that ultimately stick out with Jimmy Butler are leadership and defense. Butler has been a better defensive player than every other player listed on most top 5 lists so far, and it isn't close.

I don't think you are making this mistake, but many people are looking at box-scores, determining their "best" players, and then watching them play. What should be happening is we are watching them play and utilizing the box-score as support to what we have seen, not the other way around.

Those stats do take team defensive ratings and offensive ratings into some account, as well as some just general team metrics. They're poor judges but they capture a bit more than you're giving credit for, all be it I'd agree Butler is likely underrated by them.

[bondom34]

Just for fun checked BBR's MVP probabilities. Harden had a massive lead last I looked a week or 2 ago and Lebron a clear 2nd. Now Harden relatively close to Curry (about 43 percent chance to 28). He's been scorching hot at this point. Not even sure where my top 5 is right now. Westbrook approaching it too. Lebron falling, Curry flying up. Butler's missed a couple games so not really sure where to go there.

Injuries this year are really making the choices difficult along with a lot of turnover on teams that lead to slow starts (or in the rockets case..the opposite?).

Agreed, Harden was a clear cut 1 for me but just looked and Curry's last 15 games:
31.5/6.5/5.3 on 55/51/87 shooting splits! (80.4%TS) and over 30% Usage