Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric

[Sixerscan]

I like the Dario - Elfrid Payton trade more and more and more

Thank you Sam Hinkie

Saved our draft pick this year too. Would have had to convey it to the Magic if it fell outside the top 8.

[Ericb5]

If we get a good player from that pick it will just add to Hinkie’s legacy.


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[bobbeaver]

You didnt answer my initial question. What would it take or what numbers should he have for you to be on board on Saric?

And Im sorry but this math just seams silly. That kind of math is almost arbitrary because in early carreers it changes alot. only after 4 years can you make any real assumptions on Career stats and frankly doesnt make any sense. It just seams a nice way to twist thing to make him worse no matter how well he shoots. Occams razor says how he does this season overall is an indication where he will be in couple of years. I wouldnt even count the difference between first and second year because it usually is a big margin for any player. While it is hard to predict how he will shoot as a mature NBA player you can make certain assumtions on his trajectory (baring injuries) by visual cue and that years stats or development during that year. For example last night 2 3s were made i belive on a set defender over his hand no hesitation. You couldnt imagine him doing it earlier this season.And his FTs are a good indication of his shooting form and trajectory.

As for D ill stand by my argument because of the D sixers play. If you play all switching D bad players will get exposed and bring down team D simple as that. Biid could save some things but not all lapses simple as that. And in NBA there are a few teams with all excellent defenders and are not so high up, let me rephrase with one bad or neutral defenders. 2 players would expose them.

" If he's neutral, that makes him a below average defensive power forward." And there you go we finally agree. You said earlier (how it started) he was way bellow average but not attrocious, I said he is neutral but you can make a case he is bellow average.
Can we now agree he is bellow average and not waaayyy bellow?
We still can argue of his D trajectory if you want

I answered your question with my initial post where I stated that I think he'll be a rotation contributor if he continues to shoot well. I'll copy it again and bold it for you so you can read it again.

His 3 point shooting, his defense, and his decision making were all legitimate concerns coming into the season. It's great to see that he's shooting a lot better and I hope it continues, though I don't think he's going to shoot 37%+ going forward.

However, he's not a neutral on defense now. He's not a total liability like I feared he might be, but he's considerably below average for his position.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.

I'm not sure if you understand what the word arbitrary means. I'm attempting to account for the entire sample of data to draw conclusions. An example of being arbitrary would be stating that only after 4 years can you make any real assumptions about someone's career stats.

I don't understand the bolded statement at all. If you were going to create a probability distribution around Dario's 3 point percentage outcomes going forward and you have 2 years worth of data, you're likely going to center that distribution around a number between the outcomes of those two years, weighted more towards the second year because of recency and potential improvement. So yes, no matter what he shoots this year, I'd forecast his future shooting to be below what he shoots this year because you still have to account for what he did in his first season.

I still think it's pretty likely that he's considerably below average on defense for his position. DRPM considers him a 22nd percentile player for his position this year after being 15th percentile last season. He doesn't generate stocks and my eye test doesn't suggest that the data is wrong.

Im not sure YOU understand what arbitrary means and what a fact is. Fact is you can look at career stats only after he has had a somewhat of a carreer. Its plain simple logic. If you cant see that and call that arbitrary (which use of that word in your sentence doesnt even make sense btw neither lexicaly or in syntax) than we cant really have a worthwhile disucssion.
And i said your are using illogical math to prove your own point that his progress is not real nor his further outlook. And its not 2 years of data but 1.5 of which first year is pretty much worthless as he went from an utter non player for most of it to a to a double double machine n first option. By that measure you could go to his u16 days n find out his career stats n see the outlook of his game. Who in their right mind puts that much meaning on the first year.

Buttt anyhow im tired of this discussion since its leading us nowhere. And i have never seen you admite to a single point ever of your opponent in a descussion or even found a middle ground. Even when beaten with logic or facts in the past.
You keep hating on him and we will love what he does out there and be impressed with his growth and chamilion like aptitude to change his game n fit in at a high lvl.

[bobbeaver]

I like the Dario - Elfrid Payton trade more and more and more

Thank you Sam Hinkie

Saved our draft pick this year too. Would have had to convey it to the Magic if it fell outside the top 8.

They are so down on Elf in Magic. They are total opposites really coming in. Elf has great tools and athleticism and had skill minus the 3pt but low motor and low mental and physical toughness. Unsure of himself. Saric had low athleticism (he is still fast), short arms (not so good physical tools), high motor and high mental and physical toughness, high IQ. Skill while more versitile was not on par with Elfs coming in. Onlything similar was passing.
Amazing what high motor, mental n physical toughnes and IQ does and what difference does it make in the long run.

[pepe1991]

Saric with every new game makes TTP look like complete tool.

[TTP]

Saric with every new game makes TTP look like complete tool.

Enjoy the ban.

[pepe1991]

Saric with every new game makes TTP look like complete tool.

Enjoy the ban.

You literally do nothing but use and manipulate stats to fill your agenda.
When he had bad start you couldn't stop posting about his low FG,TS% and offensive box plus minus.
When Šarić turned around did you say anything positive ? Ofc not.

Downalking one player because you don't like him is laughable on so many levels, and now you are threatening with ban ?

Saric is disliked by advanced stats, is a defensive zero, and doesn't have a track record of production (he was not very good last year despite popular opinion here). If he was in a shooting slump but was providing positive value everywhere else, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

By the way, from January 1 to the end of season, the Sixers were -7.0 NRtg with Dario on the floor (102.9 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG) and -1.5 with him off (108.4 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG). So even during the period where he was playing his best, the Sixers were far better when he was on the bench.

If you want to change it to January 21 (the first game Embiid sat down post-injury), it's still -6.6 on and -5.1 off. The gap was much smaller, but they were still playing better when he was off the floor.

November 9th from you, nothing but love as always, later you used 12 games sample size to mock his finishing around rim comparing him to Ullis .

As usual, nothing but love

[TTP]

I answered your question with my initial post where I stated that I think he'll be a rotation contributor if he continues to shoot well. I'll copy it again and bold it for you so you can read it again.

His 3 point shooting, his defense, and his decision making were all legitimate concerns coming into the season. It's great to see that he's shooting a lot better and I hope it continues, though I don't think he's going to shoot 37%+ going forward.

However, he's not a neutral on defense now. He's not a total liability like I feared he might be, but he's considerably below average for his position.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.

I'm not sure if you understand what the word arbitrary means. I'm attempting to account for the entire sample of data to draw conclusions. An example of being arbitrary would be stating that only after 4 years can you make any real assumptions about someone's career stats.

I don't understand the bolded statement at all. If you were going to create a probability distribution around Dario's 3 point percentage outcomes going forward and you have 2 years worth of data, you're likely going to center that distribution around a number between the outcomes of those two years, weighted more towards the second year because of recency and potential improvement. So yes, no matter what he shoots this year, I'd forecast his future shooting to be below what he shoots this year because you still have to account for what he did in his first season.

I still think it's pretty likely that he's considerably below average on defense for his position. DRPM considers him a 22nd percentile player for his position this year after being 15th percentile last season. He doesn't generate stocks and my eye test doesn't suggest that the data is wrong.

Im not sure YOU understand what arbitrary means and what a fact is. Fact is you can look at career stats only after he has had a somewhat of a carreer. Its plain simple logic. If you cant see that and call that arbitrary (which use of that word in your sentence doesnt even make sense btw neither lexicaly or in syntax) than we cant really have a worthwhile disucssion.
And i said your are using illogical math to prove your own point that his progress is not real nor his further outlook. And its not 2 years of data but 1.5 of which first year is pretty much worthless as he went from an utter non player for most of it to a to a double double machine n first option. By that measure you could go to his u16 days n find out his career stats n see the outlook of his game. Who in their right mind puts that much meaning on the first year.

Buttt anyhow im tired of this discussion since its leading us nowhere. And i have never seen you admite to a single point ever of your opponent in a descussion or even found a middle ground. Even when beaten with logic or facts in the past.
You keep hating on him and we will love what he does out there and be impressed with his growth and chamilion like aptitude to change his game n fit in at a high lvl.

Maybe there's a language barrier issue here. Stating that you can only make assumptions about career stats after 4 years is arbitrary. Why not 3 years? Why not 5? Are all 4 year samples for all players equal? So you're saying a 4 year sample of a player that starts at age 19 is the same as a 4 year sample that starts at age 23? What if a player is a non rotation player his first year, a 20 min player his second, and doesn't become a 30+ minute player until his fourth year? That player might have half the minutes played after four years compared to a player that was playing 30+ minutes for all 4 years. Yet we must wait the same amount of time for the latter player as the former to start making projections?

Your statement is both clearly arbitrary and clearly wrong. You can certainly start making assumptions and projections for players without waiting 4 years. That doesn't mean you're claiming certainties. You don't need 4 years of NBA data to make probabilistic forecasts for a player's 3 point shooting growth. I certainly don't need 4 years of NBA data to project Lauri Markkanen as a better 3 point shooter than Bam Adebayo.

If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected

My initial post that you responded to literally shows me conceding that Saric has been better than I expected, and yet you say I don't find middle ground? I and1 plenty of people on this forum. If you want me to agree with your points, maybe start making good points?

Also, how is that post hating? I said he will be useful if he continues to shoot well. If anything, that's praise.

I agree that we're done here though. I don't think you support your arguments well and if you're going to criticize me for not conceding ground in a debate that literally started with me making a post that conceded ground on Saric, I'm going to have to conclude that you are not rational.

[TTP]

Saric with every new game makes TTP look like complete tool.

Enjoy the ban.

You literally do nothing but use and manipulate stats to fill your agenda.
When he had bad start you couldn't stop posting about his low FG,TS% and offensive box plus minus.
When Šarić turned around did you say anything positive ? Ofc not.

Downalking one player because you don't like him is laughable on so many levels, and now you are threatening with ban ?

Saric is disliked by advanced stats, is a defensive zero, and doesn't have a track record of production (he was not very good last year despite popular opinion here). If he was in a shooting slump but was providing positive value everywhere else, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

By the way, from January 1 to the end of season, the Sixers were -7.0 NRtg with Dario on the floor (102.9 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG) and -1.5 with him off (108.4 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG). So even during the period where he was playing his best, the Sixers were far better when he was on the bench.

If you want to change it to January 21 (the first game Embiid sat down post-injury), it's still -6.6 on and -5.1 off. The gap was much smaller, but they were still playing better when he was off the floor.

November 9th from you, nothing but love as always, later you used 12 games sample size to mock his finishing around rim comparing him to Ullis .

As usual, nothing but love

It seems like you take criticism of Saric as a personal attack because of some weird nationalism to the point that it affects you emotionally. Maybe it's a cultural difference, but I think it's pretty irrational to avoid criticism of a player because you like them, and likewise, to assume that anyone that is constantly criticizing a player doesn't like them.

I didn't downtalk him because I didn't like him. Saric seems likable as a person. He tries hard and seems loyal. I simply criticized his lack of production last season and was bearish about him improving the skills that he'd need to improve to become useful. I even said in the post you quoted that if he was having positive impact but was simply in a slump, I wouldn't have been criticizing him.

Regardless, my first post in the present discussion led off with me admitting that he's been fitting better than I expected. I had a previous viewpoint based on known information at the time, and adjusted that viewpoint as I gained additional information and Saric improved. Yet you're calling me a tool why exactly?

[BullyKing]

Saric with every new game makes TTP look like complete tool.

Enjoy the ban.

Pepe, you've been warned before about personal attacks on this board. This time is a time out. Next time will be a full board ban.

TTP, just report the post, replies like this are counterproductive

[maRioGrande]

Pepe - always looking for trouble.

[rzzzzz]

meanwhile...Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric! really dug when the team looked to him at the start of the 3rd qtr last night, and he just EXPLODED. looking forward to further improvement as the young team continues to learn to go with the hot hand. (and hoping this spring we can avoid last year's foot problem, and then he'll actually take off some time to recoop after the season.)

[Sixerscan]

meanwhile...Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric! really dug when the team looked to him at the start of the 3rd qtr last night, and he just EXPLODED. looking forward to further improvement as the young team continues to learn to go with the hot hand. (and hoping this spring we can avoid last year's foot problem, and then he'll actually take off some time to recoop after the season.)

The World Cup isn't until 2019 but I think they'll have to qualify this summer. Maybe one of our Croatian friends can clarify?

I think him playing for his national team is just something we will always have to deal with. Trying to get him to limit it is probably more trouble than it's worth. Best thing to hope for might be that Croatia becomes so dominant than he can pace himself more.

[maRioGrande]

meanwhile...Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric! really dug when the team looked to him at the start of the 3rd qtr last night, and he just EXPLODED. looking forward to further improvement as the young team continues to learn to go with the hot hand. (and hoping this spring we can avoid last year's foot problem, and then he'll actually take off some time to recoop after the season.)

The World Cup isn't until 2019 but I think they'll have to qualify this summer. Maybe one of our Croatian friends can clarify?

I think him playing for his national team is just something we will always have to deal with. Trying to get him to limit it is probably more trouble than it's worth. Best thing to hope for might be that Croatia becomes so dominant than he can pace himself more.

Croatia has 2 qualifying matches this summer, 28.6 vs Italy and 1.7. vs Romania. He will probably play, we started with 2 losses and have 2 games in a few weeks also without nba players so WC is not looking reachable atm.

[rzzzzz]

Croatia has 2 qualifying matches this summer, 28.6 vs Italy and 1.7. vs Romania. He will probably play, we started with 2 losses and have 2 games in a few weeks also without nba players so WC is not looking reachable atm.

2 games this summer and probably none the following? am i reading this right? well, you'd expect him to go home and visit.

[Negrodamus]

Orlando was lucky to get such a defensive savant in Elf Payton in this trade. Do you think he was forced to get Harden's name tattooed on his ass tonight?

[76ciology]

Ahaha you never mess with TTP he's a human algorithm that is locked in area 51.

[SOUL]

Orlando was lucky to get such a defensive savant in Elf Payton in this trade. Do you think he was forced to get Harden's name tattooed on his ass tonight?

Elfrid hasn't been great defensively this year, but Harden was not his man tonight. He found himself on Harden on like 3-4 possessions because of switches, but it was mostly Simmons/Hezonja/bigger guards on Harden.

[TTP]

Ahaha you never mess with TTP he's a human algorithm that is locked in area 51.

I checked my numbers but it’s inconclusive whether this is a compliment or an insult.

[Stribor]

The actual bet is at 37% and it was with me. I’m feeling pretty good right now, but he is on a hot streak at the moment. A cold streak will happen at some point, and he could drop a lot when that happens.


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im not so sure about that. His hot streak has been going on for 2 months now with a big 4-5 days break in the middle when he should have cooled off. Im not saying he will be shooting .435 he is doing in the last 2 months, but i dont think the cool off will be so sever. Mostly cause he gets better as the season comes closer to a close. But we will see. I think the number .38-.39% is sustainable.
But it also depends if he will continue to have open shots for 3, which i believe wount change. The fact he has shot some of the screen shots aswell tells me he locked the stroke in. But as i said we will see.

So in the last post you referenced a 19 minute sample size of good defense. In this post you're referencing 2 months of 3 point shooting. You place far too much emphasis on small sample sizes of data.

The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.

Do you care to explain what do you mean by 50% noise? I assume you assume a stationary binomial probability distribution, but do not get what is the definition of noise? Are you relating to variance or to some significance bounds in Bayesian estimator of true probability parameter???