theBigLip's Annual Playoff Predictor for 2017-18

[theBigLip]

Doing it again. I have to admit the BG trade got me excited and instead of trying to figure out where we fall in the lottery, we can figure out where we will land in the playoffs

So this isn't rocket science but it mostly provides a strength of remaining schedule analysis that does give us a better idea of what to expect. And the results for Philly and Washington really opened my eyes.

So the main assumption in this logic:
- All teams are either "Great", "Good" or "Bad" (we are "Good"). Good teams ALWAYS lose to Great teams, beat Bad teams, and then win at home versus Good teams and lose to them on the road. That's it. Here is the list of where I lumped the teams (and give me feedback - easy to re-categorize and then re-calculate).
Atlanta Bad
Boston Great
Brooklyn Bad
Charlotte Bad
Chicago Bad
Cleveland Good
Dallas Bad
Denver Good
Detroit Good
Golden State Great
Houston Great
Indiana Good
LA Clippers Good
LA Lakers Bad
Memphis Bad
Miami Good
Milwaukee Good
Minnesota Great
New Orleans Good
NY Knicks Good
Oklahoma City Great
Orlando Bad
Philadelphia Good
Phoenix Bad
Portland Good
Sacramento Bad
San Antonio Great
Toronto Great
Utah Good
Washington Good

With that out of the way, the results in the next post...

[theBigLip]

Here is the first pass on the Predictor:

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
3. Philadelphia (50-32) (26-9)
4. Cleveland (49-33) (20-13)
5. Miami (47-35) (18-14)
6. Indiana (46-36) (18-13)
7. Milwaukee (45-37) (18-15)
8. Detroit (45-37) (22-11)

9. Washington (41-41) (13-19)
10. New York (38-42) (15-16)

A couple of surprises - Philly has a totally easy schedule. They are done with the West and they don't play any "Great" teams the rest of the way. Crazy easy schedule. On the other hand, Washington has a tough remaining schedule. Combine that with Wall's injury, they look like they might actually miss the playoffs.

To be continued...

[theBigLip]

Also, I assume Boston and Toronto will remain in the top 2 slots so not going to bother to track them.

[theBigLip]

So Detroit's predicted record details:

Thu, Feb 1 vs Memphis Win 24 26
Sat, Feb 3 vs Miami Win 25 26
Mon, Feb 5 vs Portland Win 26 26
Wed, Feb 7 vs Brooklyn Win 27 26
Fri, Feb 9 vs LA Win 28 26
Sun, Feb 11 @ Atlanta Win 29 26
Mon, Feb 12 vs New Orleans Win 30 26
Wed, Feb 14 vs Atlanta Win 31 26
Fri, Feb 23 vs Boston Loss 31 27
Sun, Feb 25 @ Charlotte Win 32 27
Mon, Feb 26 @ Toronto Loss 32 28
Wed, Feb 28 vs Milwaukee Win 33 28
Fri, Mar 2 @ Orlando Win 34 28
Sat, Mar 3 @ Miami Loss 34 29
Mon, Mar 5 @ Cleveland Loss 34 30
Wed, Mar 7 vs Toronto Loss 34 31
Fri, Mar 9 vs Chicago Win 35 31
Tue, Mar 13 @ Utah Loss 35 32
Thu, Mar 15 @ Denver Loss 35 33
Sat, Mar 17 @ Portland Loss 35 34
Mon, Mar 19 @ Sacramento Win 36 34
Tue, Mar 20 @ Phoenix Win 37 34
Thu, Mar 22 @ Houston Loss 37 35
Sat, Mar 24 vs Chicago Win 38 35
Mon, Mar 26 vs Los Angeles Win 39 35
Thu, Mar 29 vs Washington Win 40 35
Sat, Mar 31 @ NY Knicks Loss 40 36
Sun, Apr 1 @ Brooklyn Win 41 36
Wed, Apr 4 vs Philadelphia Win 42 36
Fri, Apr 6 vs Dallas Win 43 36
Sun, Apr 8 @ Memphis Win 44 36
Mon, Apr 9 vs Toronto Loss 44 37
Wed, Apr 11 @ Chicago Win 45 37

[Kilo]

Lucky we have that 4 win cushion with 9th place, because there will be a learning curve with integrating Blake into the line-up AND Reggie isn't due back to first game after ASB at the earliest.

My only quibble would have Charlotte a "good" team would account for one more loss for us according to your rules as we play them on the road.

Miami and Portland will be tough this next week for us - first games with Griffin and still now Reggie.

It's going to be close for us making the play-offs this season. We gave away too many - especially recently.

But maybe we win the lottery if we do miss the play-offs.

[bballnmike]

I always enjoy these posts. I especially enjoy when someone inevitably gets too caught up about a particular team, like, "oh this model is bs, no way Philly wins 50 games. Or no way team x beats team y." Instead of just looking at it as a basic tool for remaining SoS

[MotownMadness]

Predicting Ws is so hard anymore in the 3pt era. Just so many lead swings and big runs throughout a game.

[bstein14]

Our remaining 8 games before the AS break are huge... this model predicts us winning them all which obviously won't happen but it is an incredibly important stretch that we must play at 5-3 or better if we're going to have a chance to make the playoffs.

[theBigLip]

I always enjoy these posts. I especially enjoy when someone inevitably gets too caught up about a particular team, like, "oh this model is bs, no way Philly wins 50 games. Or no way team x beats team y." Instead of just looking at it as a basic tool for remaining SoS

Thanks. You get it.

[MotownMadness]

I like how the trade deadline is before the AllStar break now. Gives you that time off to get some practice in with any new pieces. Especially such a big roster overhaul like we just had.

[theBigLip]

Our remaining 8 games before the AS break are huge... this model predicts us winning them all which obviously won't happen but it is an incredibly important stretch that we must play at 5-3 or better if we're going to have a chance to make the playoffs.

Agree that 8 in a row (that is wins ) is not super likely, but it does look like a string of easier games that should help us integrate BG.

[topsearch92]

Does Phili get downgraded to a bad team in back to backs due to the Embiid factor lol?

[thesack12]

8 of the next 9 are at home. Only road game being Atlanta. Only playoff teams during that stretch are Miami, Portland, and Boston.

The Boston game isn't until Feb 23, the last of that 9 game stretch. The first 8 in that stretch are all winnable games.

All those home games affords lots of practices. Its pretty much the perfect time to incorporate a new star addition.

[bstein14]

Some of the good/bad will also depend on trades that happen over the next 8 days (Thursday Feb 8th this year). Hopefully that away game against Charlotte becomes easier because they decide to blow it up before the deadline. Same thing could happen with that Feb 9th game vs the Clippers if they get rid of Lou, Jordan, and maybe even Harris/Bradley to fuel their rebuild.

[theBigLip]

Does Phili get downgraded to a bad team in back to backs due to the Embiid factor lol?

Good point, and I've looked into factoring in back-to-backs. But I'm doing it in Excel and it gets a bit challenging. I can easily do it to the team that has the back to back and have them lose that second game. The hard part is conveying that to the other team's record since their schedule knows nothing about the other teams back-to-back. But now that you brought it up, I think I'll take a closer look to see if I can pull that off.

[theBigLip]

ESPN Playoff Predictor does have Philly up and Washington down but not but as much as I have them moving. And as of now? THey have Pistons at #9. Hope they are wrong and my predictor is right

Here is the ESPN Predictor with records and playoff liklihood
TOR 57-25 >99.9%
BOS 56-26 >99.9%
CLE 47-35 98.4%
MIA 45-37 96.0%
PHI 45-37 95.0%
WSH 45-37 93.8%
MIL 44-38 87.3%
IND 42-40 73.5%
DET 40-42 43.0%
CHA 37-45 7.4%
NY 36-46 5.7%

[Liqourish]

Pistons are now only 2 games out of the playoffs with 33 games left to play. They have a very easy schedule down the stretch and added a top talent and should get their starting PG back, while teams like Washington and Cleveland just lost key players and might struggle. Embiid still can't play back to back games and Milwaukee just fired their head coach. I'm struggling to see how this is insurmountable for the Pistons.

[DETermination]

I think we catch the sixers and with how much time is left this season maybe we move up to the 6th/7th seed. Wizards don't play that bad without Wall but still I'm hoping they fall off big time.

[MotownMadness]

Can see the Bucks and Sixers maybe dropping and that's realistically who we need to watch. Maybe Pacers start to finally fall apart but they play tough.

[bstein14]

If Philly really has the easiest schedule remaining its going to make making the playoffs that much harder because we're 4 games behind Indy and the Bucks. The Bucks seem to be refocused with a new coach so now we're banking on Indy to stumble a bit down the stretch so we can catch them.