2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[DingleJerry]

One would think after Yu finally makes his decision that there will be cluster of activity all over the league. Spring training is two weeks out at this point.

[Kerb Hohl]

Brewer's FO calling for big meeting later today. My source is not part of it. This all I know at this point.

[Turk Nowitzki]

Brewer's FO calling for big meeting later today. My source is not part of it. This all I know at this point.

The pessimist in me thinks this might be that Darvish has informed them he is going elsewhere and they are gathering to plot their next move.

[dbrodz7]

If Darvish says no they should take that money and give it Lynn and Cobb.

[Kerb Hohl]

If Darvish says no they should take that money and give it Lynn and Cobb.

As a starting point, I'll say that I think it is unlikely that they get both of those guys.

However, I do think that does lend to a very interesting fantasy down the road:

You could have Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Lynn, Cobb in your rotation with Woodruff in it for now in Nelson's place.

You could have a bullpen that includes Woodruff, Suter, Burnes (later this year/next year), Hader, Knebel, Ortiz (2019), and the current set of other solid relievers they have like Albers.

That would be a full-blown modern baseball dream. You could start the game with Lynn, but if he's in trouble in the 3rd inning, you could go to Woodruff for 2 innings, Burnes if you're still in the lead for 2 more, and then close it out. It would make for some long games, though.

And of course, you'd have all of those other guys as A. replacement options for injury or under-performance (Burnes slides in if Cobb is bad in 3 years) and B. trade bait if we're in it and need a bat.

EDIT: I completely forgot about Chacin.

[MickeyDavis]

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. I hope Darvish chose the Cubs.

[wichmae]

Its surprising to me that were two weeks from ST and basically the entire top tier FA's have not signed.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'd take Darvish (FA) over Archer. Darvish likely isn't choosing the Brewers and they likely won't pony up enough, but if given a choice of Darvish at 2-3x the cost, I'd still take it over unloading the farm for Archer.

[Turk Nowitzki]

Its surprising to me that were two weeks from ST and basically the entire top tier FA's have not signed.

I don't know what Martinez and Hosmer are waiting for but I don't blame the other pitchers for waiting on Darvish. You want the teams that miss on him to start bidding on you if you're Arrieta, Cobb,and Lynn.

[Ryan5UW]

I'd take Darvish (FA) over Archer. Darvish likely isn't choosing the Brewers and they likely won't pony up enough, but if given a choice of Darvish at 2-3x the cost, I'd still take it over unloading the farm for Archer.

I definitely agree with this.

[wichmae]

Its surprising to me that were two weeks from ST and basically the entire top tier FA's have not signed.

I don't know what Martinez and Hosmer are waiting for but I don't blame the other pitchers for waiting on Darvish. You want the teams that miss on him to start bidding on you if you're Arrieta, Cobb,and Lynn.

I understand it from a market price point but were getting down to missing ST time. Just doesnt make a ton of sense to me. Its obvious the FA market itself as a whole is adjusting with the new lux tax penalties. Those crazy contracts just arent going to be available.

[Thunder Muscle]

I'd take Darvish (FA) over Archer. Darvish likely isn't choosing the Brewers and they likely won't pony up enough, but if given a choice of Darvish at 2-3x the cost, I'd still take it over unloading the farm for Archer.

I definitely agree with this.

Agree too. If we're getting Archer, we'll need to drain another good crop of the farm system I'd think.

[Kerb Hohl]

Its surprising to me that were two weeks from ST and basically the entire top tier FA's have not signed.

I don't know what Martinez and Hosmer are waiting for but I don't blame the other pitchers for waiting on Darvish. You want the teams that miss on him to start bidding on you if you're Arrieta, Cobb,and Lynn.

I understand it from a market price point but were getting down to missing ST time. Just doesnt make a ton of sense to me. Its obvious the FA market itself as a whole is adjusting with the new lux tax penalties. Those crazy contracts just arent going to be available.

The mega contracts will be back next year (I think). Everyone just wants to reset them, it appears.

[wichmae]

I don't know what Martinez and Hosmer are waiting for but I don't blame the other pitchers for waiting on Darvish. You want the teams that miss on him to start bidding on you if you're Arrieta, Cobb,and Lynn.

I understand it from a market price point but were getting down to missing ST time. Just doesnt make a ton of sense to me. Its obvious the FA market itself as a whole is adjusting with the new lux tax penalties. Those crazy contracts just arent going to be available.

The mega contracts will be back next year (I think). Everyone just wants to reset them, it appears.

IDK. I dont think the guys like Martinez and Hosmer will get them again. Harper, yes. The upper mid level players borderline all star I think will market adjust. Especially with the years that are being handed out.

[wichmae]

We'll have to see. I just dont know if that kind of money is still there for all of baseball.

[Kerb Hohl]

I understand it from a market price point but were getting down to missing ST time. Just doesnt make a ton of sense to me. Its obvious the FA market itself as a whole is adjusting with the new lux tax penalties. Those crazy contracts just arent going to be available.

The mega contracts will be back next year (I think). Everyone just wants to reset them, it appears.

IDK. I dont think the guys like Martinez and Hosmer will get them again. Harper, yes. The upper mid level players borderline all star I think will market adjust. Especially with the years that are being handed out.

Yeah, there's a declining TV revenue stream from some of the mega markets potentially.

That said, with all of these teams resetting their luxury tax situations (except maybe the Red Sox, but they're working on it), you will have something like this:

Next year, say the Yankees get Machado, Cubs get Harper, Dodgers get Kershaw, etc.

All of the losers of those sweepstakes (Giants, Angels, etc.) + the mid-markets will be bidding for those 2nd tier contracts and they'll get pretty expensive again just due to bidding.

The one weird thing that will create less big contracts is Miami and probably Detroit having ownership that is less willing to spend big. Just a few bidders for big ticket items out of the mix.

[wichmae]

I think theres quite a few bidders who will be out of the mix. The Yankees and a few others have massive contracts coming off. I have to think though a bunch of those teams are rebuilding. Or would have to rebuild. Like you said the Tigers arent contending. CHI-WS not close. Toronto probably has to re-tool. Which leaves basically Texas, WAS, and SF with some money to spend. Then you have the mid tier teams like us and how much you think were going shell out. Or SEA for instance. I just dont know if all that money is there for those guys.

Minny has Mauer coming off so they could bid. Idk. Were going to really have to see if that money is out there.

[Kerb Hohl]

Its surprising to me that were two weeks from ST and basically the entire top tier FA's have not signed.

I don't know what Martinez and Hosmer are waiting for but I don't blame the other pitchers for waiting on Darvish. You want the teams that miss on him to start bidding on you if you're Arrieta, Cobb,and Lynn.

It somewhat fascinates me because I honestly don't know what these guys will be stuck with.

I think both would wish that a few of the larger markets would be in the bidding to set the market.

I think the larger markets are sitting back to reset their lux tax situation. Some of them may be willing to go over for Darvish, but I'd think the Yankees are waiting back to see if they can squeeze Darvish in under theirs and the Dodgers seem to be trying to unload players to then sign Darvish and remain under the threshold.

All of this means that basically nobody is bidding on Hosmer or Martinez. Hosmer has the Royals vs. Padres and will have a suitor for an overpriced deal, so I don't totally get that one, but maybe he's waiting for some of the teams that strike out on the pitchers to come his way to get one final bump.

At a certain point, Martinez may have to live with a bidding war of a few out-of-the-blue teams on lesser terms. I don't know who that is. Large-ish markets that aren't flirting with the lux tax threshold. Philly? Baltimore? Toronto? Atlanta? Something like that.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think theres quite a few bidders who will be out of the mix. The Yankees and a few others have massive contracts coming off. I have to think though a bunch of those teams are rebuilding. Or would have to rebuild. Like you said the Tigers arent contending. CHI-WS not close. Toronto probably has to re-tool. Which leaves basically Texas, WAS, and SF with some money to spend. Then you have the mid tier teams like us and how much you think were going shell out. Or SEA for instance. I just dont know if all that money is there for those guys.

Minny has Mauer coming off so they could bid. Idk. Were going to really have to see if that money is out there.

Red Sox - ~$5 million over
Yankees - $20 million under but still some work to do this offseason
Dodgers - $17 million under
Cubs - $30 million under but may want to save going over for next year
Giants - Right on the line

So you can see why the teams that usually set the market on these contracts are not giving out large offers and it is causing a ripple effect.

The Twins are ready to make a splash, just not one as large as the Yankees generally make on someone like Darvish. Darvish is hoping that someone makes an offer that the Dodgers and Yankees normally make but they haven't made it yet because they're all pinching pennies to stay under the mark.

The Twins have plenty to spend and will but Darvish is stuck in the middle of trying to drive up the Brewers and Twins with not getting those Yankee and Dodger offers.

The money is out there (maybe a bit less). I think these theories of all 30 owners waking up this offseason and becoming fully enlightened on contracts AND this quick of a decline in money to throw around for contracts is a bit of wishful thinking on small market team fans' side of things.

[Kerb Hohl]

My god, bf.net is a cesspool.

You get yelled out of the room for suggesting that the Rays aren't going to give up Jake Odorizzi for our **** bench bats over there.