lvckv wrote:gmoney411 wrote:ken6199 wrote:There is almost zero chance you can build a team to beat the Warriors.
Think how it all started. Curry's 'ankle contract', and good drafting in Klay and Draymond, allowed them to win their 1st title and the 73W season afterwards. Without those success, Durant wouldn't be joining. Plus the sudden salary jump AFTER they locked Klay and Draymond in super friendly deals. Tell me, all 4 of those things happen again, at the same time, what are the chances?
Even getting CP by giving away pretty much nothing is a miracle itself. Adding Lebron without gutting the roster? Little chance. Even with that big 3, you need Tucker LMAM Capela stay on peanut contracts, Ariza earning half of what Evan Turner earns, while all having to give max contribution to just compete with the Warriors.
What Warriors did is once in a life time incident. It's easy to say "Lebron joins A/B/C to go against the Warriors".
If LeBron can be acquired in a sign and trade the roster won't have to be gutted. Anderson and Gordon are only about $1MM away from LeBron's opt in number. If you give CP3 and Clint a combined 50 the Rockets are paying $123 for Harden/CP3/LeBron/Clint/PJ. That's only $7MM more than the Warriors are paying for Curry/KD/Klay/Green/Iggy. And that Warriors number will be higher if Durant opts out and asks for more money which he likely will.
Ariza and Luc are the guys that will have to take pay cuts. I think Ariza will but Luc probably won't want to sign another minimum deal. Nene is already locked in at 3.6. The rest of the roster will be ring chasing guys on low end deals like the Warriors have.
A sign-and-trade means LeBron opts in to his player option for $35.6m with Cleveland, or opts out re-signs for $35.3m before getting traded.
The Cavaliers have to take on at least $28m to trade him, meaning Anderson and Tucker/Gordon (plus presumably a number of firsts) for LeBron is a trade that happens - pretty bad return for the Cavs.
This sign-and-trade hard-caps the Rockets, so they absolutely cannot go over $128m (projected based on $101m cap projection) under any circumstances. So now they have LeBron, Harden, Tucker, Nene, Onuaku under guaranteed contracts at $79m. That leaves
$49m to spend on Chris Paul (who wants a $35m max), Capela (who wants a big contract too), Ariza, and then 7 other players.
Would CP3 going to take a huge discount to keep Capela and Ariza? Or would he take the max, as everyone assumes he absolutely will, and then Morey has $14m to spend on 9 players...
A sign-and-trade could be feasible if CP3 and Capela take big one-year discounts, then re-sign long-term the next year. Would be a **** move though.
The roster would have to be totally gutted to sign him as a free agent, yeah.
Houston has $81m in guaranteed contracts for next season. Chris Paul's cap hold is $36m, Ariza's is $11m, Capela's is $7m. That's $135m - the cap is projected at $101m, the tax line at $123m.
So they need to clear space. Anderson $20m, Gordon $13.5m, Tucker $8m, Nene $3m are gone immediately - down to $92m assuming a team will take them without shedding a cent of guaranteed salary back to the Rockets, which is out of this world unlikely. Black, Brown, Mbah a Moute, Onuaku, Qi - the end of bench dudes - go next and they're down to $84m.
Ok, now renounce Ariza and Capela - $66m left now, just Harden's contract and CP3's hold. Just about enough room to max LeBron and sneak under the $101m cap. So after CP3 signs, your 2018-19 Houston Rockets are those 3 stars, a $8m non-taxpayer MLE, and 10 minimum contracts (ranging from $800k for rookies, to $2m+ for 7+year vets). No chance.
