Paradise wrote:vincecarter4pres wrote:MrDollarBills wrote:trading everyone and their mother for picks in the teens and 2nd rounders all but will insure that this will be a 10-12 year long rebuild.
Well, we're in year 3 of a rebuild, 3 years where we obviously haven't had our own picks. I think 10 to 12 years is an extreme exaggeration, but realistically looking at things, if Marks feels the need to take a step backwards to take a few forward, this very well maybe a 5 or 6 year rebuild, maybe even 7 total. Which honestly isn't that crazy unless you're a team who hits on 1 if not 2 generational level talents first or 2nd try, especially again under these specific circumstances of losing 3 unprotected picks in a row, who all look like they're going to be really good players, plus if we did the same trade down Ainge did, picking up a 4th lotto pick.
This isn’t equating drafting the next Wiggins, Parker instead of the next Towns, KP, Embiid. Milwaukee’s entire franchise is built around a guy that was taken 15th. Not the guy they lost 60+ games for.
I have 100% trust in our scouting but I don’t believe you make your franchise any better by rebuilding over and over again. Ask Orlando, Phoenix how is that working despite having a talented star. Even GS didn’t need to do that.
I get that there are franchise cornerstone players and franchise changing players who go late, but it's definitely more the outlier then the standard.
But my point isn't necessarily to have to have a high pick, but especially if we're not going to wind up top 10, the more shots Marks has to hit on a later pick, the better. And GSW is still built around the 7th overall pick, the 11th and the 2nd overall pick, along with one real late guy and a ton of added role players through trade and free agency.
Look at all the actual franchise guys and then the near franchise guys(we'll exclude real young unestablished guys):
Kyrie - 1st
Gordon Hayward - 9th
Lebron - 1st
Blake - 1st
Curry - 7th
KD - 2nd
Klay - 11th
Harden - 3rd
CP3 - 4th
Oladipo - 2nd
Greak Freak - 15th
Jimmy Butler - 30th
Karl-Anthony Towns - 1st
Anthony Davis - 1st
Cousins - 5th
Westbrook - 4th
Paul George - 10th
Embiid - 3rd
Lillard - 6xth
McCollum - 10th
LMA - 2nd
Kawhi - 15th
DeRozan - 9th
Wall - 1st
Beal - 3rd
That's 4 guys out of the current 25 franchise and near-franchise guys outside the top 10.
5 of them between 9 and 11. 2 others outside the top 5 but higher than 9th.
15 in the top 5 picks and only 3 of those outside the top 3 picks.
You can find really good players, straight All Stars outside the top 10 picks, hell the top 15. You can even find a few franchise guys there. But the odds are definitely not in your favor.