Political Roundtable Part XVIII

[closg00]

Read on Twitter

[cammac]

Four things to this. First, OECD's numbers show us at 26 odd percent - but we are really at 30+ for federal and state. Second, the 40+ percent does make a difference and is necessary in our case to understand our total receipts. Third, I agree a VAT would be a good place to start. Fourth, getting the cost drivers in hand should be done first - otherwise it won't matter - we will still outspend any new taxes as we have done in the past.

Yeah the OECD number is for 2012, you can see there's a dip there.

The only cost driver I’m aware there’s anything we could do anything about is health care. And the solution is single payer.

The other major expenditure that could put a dent in the problem is military adventurism. Obama came in saying let’s get the hell out of Iraq and Afghanistan, that turned out horribly. Trump tried something similar and he failed.

Zonk - three drivers to the deficit - spending, poor tax and substandard growth.
Cost drivers in healthcare (probably #1 thing that needs to be done - don't get distracted by coverage and the like), trimming the military to 3% of GDP, get rid of baseline spending, prisons, get rid as much funding coming from federal governments to state an local governments (incredibly inefficient) and instead fund it with your VAT - directly, get rid of pensions and replace with 401Ks at the federal/state and local level (most important at the local level).

On the taxation side, KILL the carveouts! Once you have done this - then you can start to work on optimal tax rates that balance growth and receipts. As it is now - there is no control. Before we pass any new taxes we should fix our tax policy.

On the growth side, increase immigration to .75 or 1% of the population annually targeting skilled workers in the right age range. Get rid of familial and birthright based immigration.

If we do those things, we will be fine. Sadly both parties have shown that they won't touch their babies - they are playing a game of chicken where one arm of the Rs are reducing taxes to try to reign in spending. The war hawks happily trade military spending for social spending and the Ds aren't willing to tackle baseline spending or changes to immigration.

#endrant

Basically I agree with most of what dckingfan proposes with a few exceptions!
Canada does bring .75% + of it's population every year through immigration but 25% is family unification in the a new immigrant may be bringing there family and in some cases parents a board family reunification isn't needed. I obviously brought my wife to Canada as family unification but she also would have qualified by other means.
Plus the need to bring refugees which have benefited both countries.
Yes getting the best and brightest is something that needs to be done but also people in key areas of need.

401Ks I'm not sure how much of America has them? Doesn't that eliminate a vast number of people excuse my ignorance on the subject?

Government transfer payments Canada does it effectively and is needed for a national healthcare system that want a equitable service across the country.

[closg00]

Watch on YouTube

Worse than Watergate

Here's a simple question for you to contemplate:

What if Schiff actually did include classified information that reveals sources on that memo? What exactly is Trump supposed to do?

The answer is obvious, the WH could have released the Dem memo with redactions, instead is it NUNES who controls the release. The DOJ and FBI can mark it up and send it back to Nunes for release, but it is up to him to release it. Clearly the fix is in, or the memo will be obliterated to the point of being useless. Putin would be proud of these moves.

Edit: Very interesting that the 3# person in the DOJ line of succession after Rosenstein, has been offered a job she could not refuse from Walmart. In the coming weeks, Nunes and his foot soldiers on Fox, will continue to push the narrative that Rosenstein should be fired. Mueller reports to Rosenstein.

[dckingsfan]

Yeah the OECD number is for 2012, you can see there's a dip there.

The only cost driver I’m aware there’s anything we could do anything about is health care. And the solution is single payer.

The other major expenditure that could put a dent in the problem is military adventurism. Obama came in saying let’s get the hell out of Iraq and Afghanistan, that turned out horribly. Trump tried something similar and he failed.

Zonk - three drivers to the deficit - spending, poor tax and substandard growth.
Cost drivers in healthcare (probably #1 thing that needs to be done - don't get distracted by coverage and the like), trimming the military to 3% of GDP, get rid of baseline spending, prisons, get rid as much funding coming from federal governments to state an local governments (incredibly inefficient) and instead fund it with your VAT - directly, get rid of pensions and replace with 401Ks at the federal/state and local level (most important at the local level).

On the taxation side, KILL the carveouts! Once you have done this - then you can start to work on optimal tax rates that balance growth and receipts. As it is now - there is no control. Before we pass any new taxes we should fix our tax policy.

On the growth side, increase immigration to .75 or 1% of the population annually targeting skilled workers in the right age range. Get rid of familial and birthright based immigration.

If we do those things, we will be fine. Sadly both parties have shown that they won't touch their babies - they are playing a game of chicken where one arm of the Rs are reducing taxes to try to reign in spending. The war hawks happily trade military spending for social spending and the Ds aren't willing to tackle baseline spending or changes to immigration.

#endrant

Basically I agree with most of what dckingfan proposes with a few exceptions!
Canada does bring .75% + of it's population every year through immigration but 25% is family unification in the a new immigrant may be bringing there family and in some cases parents a board family reunification isn't needed. I obviously brought my wife to Canada as family unification but she also would have qualified by other means.
Plus the need to bring refugees which have benefited both countries.
Yes getting the best and brightest is something that needs to be done but also people in key areas of need.

401Ks I'm not sure how much of America has them? Doesn't that eliminate a vast number of people excuse my ignorance on the subject?

Government transfer payments Canada does it effectively and is needed for a national healthcare system that want a equitable service across the country.

I think in this case and given the crisis we are in - we should table the refugee immigration for the time being.

Many have 401Ks. The point here is that federal, state and local governments aren't able to manage pensions (especially at the local level) and then underfund those same pensions. If you pay out as a 401K - the money actually gets to the workers and doesn't sink government finances.

There are some transfer payments that work - but a vast majority in the US are broken and cost dollar to dollar to implement. DOE jumps to mind.

[closg00]

Many of the Alternative Facts Russia probe narrative factually debunked in one place.

The Nunes memo actually revealed that the genesis of the FBI probe of Trump-Russia collusion was the activity of a Trump adviser (Papadopoulos) who had been apprised of dirt gathered by Russia on Clinton. It predated the FBI’s use of the Steele dossier, which is at the center of the grand alt-narrative, and showed that the FBI probe had been repeatedly validated by judges.

Republicans release a September 2016 text between the FBI’s Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, which said Barack Obama “wants to know everything we’re doing.” This is supposed to demonstrate Obama interference in the FBI probe of Clinton. But there was no Clinton probe at the time — it had been resolved in July (and was only reopened in late October). What’s more, associates of Strzok and Page say Obama actually wanted information on Russian meddling. This makes much more sense — and, if true, it shows that this “scandal” is that Obama wanted information on Russian sabotage of our democracy, which Trump still often maintains never happened.

Republicans darkly said another Strzok-Page text containing the words “secret society” signaled deep FBI corruption. Then the full text was released, and it turned out to be about calendars and appeared to be a joke.

Congressional GOP investigators are preparing to interview an informant who supposedly has the goods on the Uranium One “scandal,” in which Clinton supposedly authorized a deal in which Russia obtained uranium extraction rights in the United States, in exchange for kickbacks to the Clinton Foundation. But top Oversight and Intelligence committee Democrats just released a letter claiming that the Justice Department privately briefed committee staffers and told them that the Justice Department had actually dismissed the reliability of this informant in a separate investigation. To be fair, this has not been confirmed. But as it is, the idea that the Uranium One deal is a scandal has already been thoroughly debunked. And independent reporting is likely to confirm that account soon enough.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/02/09/devin-nunes-laughable-spin-to-protect-trump-crashes-and-burns/?utm_term=.350aa9d62fc8#comments

[cammac]

Zonk - three drivers to the deficit - spending, poor tax and substandard growth.
Cost drivers in healthcare (probably #1 thing that needs to be done - don't get distracted by coverage and the like), trimming the military to 3% of GDP, get rid of baseline spending, prisons, get rid as much funding coming from federal governments to state an local governments (incredibly inefficient) and instead fund it with your VAT - directly, get rid of pensions and replace with 401Ks at the federal/state and local level (most important at the local level).

On the taxation side, KILL the carveouts! Once you have done this - then you can start to work on optimal tax rates that balance growth and receipts. As it is now - there is no control. Before we pass any new taxes we should fix our tax policy.

On the growth side, increase immigration to .75 or 1% of the population annually targeting skilled workers in the right age range. Get rid of familial and birthright based immigration.

If we do those things, we will be fine. Sadly both parties have shown that they won't touch their babies - they are playing a game of chicken where one arm of the Rs are reducing taxes to try to reign in spending. The war hawks happily trade military spending for social spending and the Ds aren't willing to tackle baseline spending or changes to immigration.

#endrant

Basically I agree with most of what dckingfan proposes with a few exceptions!
Canada does bring .75% + of it's population every year through immigration but 25% is family unification in the a new immigrant may be bringing there family and in some cases parents a board family reunification isn't needed. I obviously brought my wife to Canada as family unification but she also would have qualified by other means.
Plus the need to bring refugees which have benefited both countries.
Yes getting the best and brightest is something that needs to be done but also people in key areas of need.

401Ks I'm not sure how much of America has them? Doesn't that eliminate a vast number of people excuse my ignorance on the subject?

Government transfer payments Canada does it effectively and is needed for a national healthcare system that want a equitable service across the country.

I think in this case and given the crisis we are in - we should table the refugee immigration for the time being.

Many have 401Ks. The point here is that federal, state and local governments aren't able to manage pensions (especially at the local level) and then underfund those same pensions. If you pay out as a 401K - the money actually gets to the workers and doesn't sink government finances.

There are some transfer payments that work - but a vast majority in the US are broken and cost dollar to dollar to implement. DOE jumps to mind.

I only know that Canadian Pension plans are actuarial sound and government can't touch them and they are players in the world markets. Example CPP ( Canada Pension Plan ) owned 25% of Skype when Microsoft bought it.

[nate33]

Here's a simple question for you to contemplate:

What if Schiff actually did include classified information that reveals sources on that memo? What exactly is Trump supposed to do?

There is certainly some classified info that none of us would want revealed. Problem is that Trump has already proven to us--time and time again--that he's a prolific liar. So it's right and reasonable that he not be trusted in this instance as well.

Answer my question. What is Trump supposed to do? How is it possible for Trump not to be blamed for Schiff including classified information into the memo?

[nate33]

Watch on YouTube

Worse than Watergate

Here's a simple question for you to contemplate:

What if Schiff actually did include classified information that reveals sources on that memo? What exactly is Trump supposed to do?

The answer is obvious, the WH could have released the Dem memo with redactions, instead is it NUNES who controls the release. The DOJ and FBI can mark it up and send it back to Nunes for release, but it is up to him to release it.

I think that's still on the table. I expect a redacted version to be released eventually.

[cammac]

Mueller is a man that Americans should admire a war hero and a patriot that devoted most of his life to the FBI & DOJ. He took his current post as a act of patriotism at a significant financial cost and knew that his efforts would be smeared and his integrity questioned. But his investigation has been leak proof and in relationship to other Special Prosecutors fruitful with early success.

I will take some excerpts from this article Trump-Russia Isn't About the Cover-Up. It's About the Crime. I will preface it is from the Daily Beast which is LIBERAL but fair. I also want to add something in that Mueller has been working with State officials with Trump information that can't be pardoned by the Trumpster. Sorry SD20 no crayons or pictures to amuse you!

In the Russia scandal, special counsel Robert Mueller has credible proof of obstruction of justice—i.e., the cover-up. But in a highly politicized climate, where “memos” and insults are weapons of distraction, that won’t likely be enough. Even if Democrats take control of Congress in November, most Republicans—like most juries in run-of-the-mill criminal cases—will demand significant evidence of an underlying crime as a motive for the obstruction before turning on President Trump, much less voting in the Senate to remove him from office

Flynn didn’t just vaguely admit he lied. The law doesn’t allow that. He admitted in writing that his lie “had a material impact” on the FBI’s probe “into the existence of any links or coordination between individuals associated with the [Trump] Campaign and Russia’s efforts to intervene in the 2016 election.”

The conspiracy case--the heart of Mueller’s efforts-- almost certainly boils down to an old-fashioned quid pro quo. Flynn’s “quid”—the substance of his recorded conversations with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak— was lifting the sanctions that President Obama imposed on Russia in late 2016 and the earlier sanctions related to Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. The “quo” was collusion (“conspiracy” in legal terms) with Russians to harm Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, which Flynn effectively admitted was “material” to his lies after the election. Anyone associated with this deal is in deep legal trouble.

Conspiracy is a much broader crime than is generally understood. The guidelines for judges who instruct juries say that the prosecution need only prove that there was “a mutual understanding, either spoken or unspoken, [Emphasis added] between two or more people to cooperate with each other to accomplish an unlawful act.”

It doesn’t matter whether the “mutual understanding” was before, during or after the crime was committed. “It is not necessary that a defendant be fully informed of all the details of the conspiracy, or all of its participants,” the model jury instructions continue. “You need not find that the alleged members of the conspiracy met together and entered into any express or formal agreement.”

Much more good stuff great read!

[nate33]

Many of the Alternative Facts Russia probe narrative factually debunked in one place.

The Nunes memo actually revealed that the genesis of the FBI probe of Trump-Russia collusion was the activity of a Trump adviser (Papadopoulos) who had been apprised of dirt gathered by Russia on Clinton. It predated the FBI’s use of the Steele dossier, which is at the center of the grand alt-narrative, and showed that the FBI probe had been repeatedly validated by judges.

Republicans release a September 2016 text between the FBI’s Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, which said Barack Obama “wants to know everything we’re doing.” This is supposed to demonstrate Obama interference in the FBI probe of Clinton. But there was no Clinton probe at the time — it had been resolved in July (and was only reopened in late October). What’s more, associates of Strzok and Page say Obama actually wanted information on Russian meddling. This makes much more sense — and, if true, it shows that this “scandal” is that Obama wanted information on Russian sabotage of our democracy, which Trump still often maintains never happened.

Republicans darkly said another Strzok-Page text containing the words “secret society” signaled deep FBI corruption. Then the full text was released, and it turned out to be about calendars and appeared to be a joke.

Congressional GOP investigators are preparing to interview an informant who supposedly has the goods on the Uranium One “scandal,” in which Clinton supposedly authorized a deal in which Russia obtained uranium extraction rights in the United States, in exchange for kickbacks to the Clinton Foundation. But top Oversight and Intelligence committee Democrats just released a letter claiming that the Justice Department privately briefed committee staffers and told them that the Justice Department had actually dismissed the reliability of this informant in a separate investigation. To be fair, this has not been confirmed. But as it is, the idea that the Uranium One deal is a scandal has already been thoroughly debunked. And independent reporting is likely to confirm that account soon enough.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/02/09/devin-nunes-laughable-spin-to-protect-trump-crashes-and-burns/?utm_term=.350aa9d62fc8#comments

Democrats are trying to have it both ways. They turn Carter Page into the next Algier Hiss to justify spying on Trump. And then when we complain about the scant evidence they had against Page, they change the subject and focus on Papadopolous. The problem is Papadopolous is a harmless striver who wasn't even on the payroll of the Trump campaign. You can't wiretap a whole campaign because of a drunken conversation some volunteer has with an Australian diplomat.

[nate33]

Mueller is a man that Americans should admire a war hero and a patriot that devoted most of his life to the FBI & DOJ. He took his current post as a act of patriotism at a significant financial cost and knew that his efforts would be smeared and his integrity questioned. But his investigation has been leak proof and in relationship to other Special Prosecutors fruitful with early success.

I will take some excerpts from this article Trump-Russia Isn't About the Cover-Up. It's About the Crime. I will preface it is from the Daily Beast which is LIBERAL but fair. I also want to add something in that Mueller has been working with State officials with Trump information that can't be pardoned by the Trumpster. Sorry SD20 no crayons or pictures to amuse you!

In the Russia scandal, special counsel Robert Mueller has credible proof of obstruction of justice—i.e., the cover-up. But in a highly politicized climate, where “memos” and insults are weapons of distraction, that won’t likely be enough. Even if Democrats take control of Congress in November, most Republicans—like most juries in run-of-the-mill criminal cases—will demand significant evidence of an underlying crime as a motive for the obstruction before turning on President Trump, much less voting in the Senate to remove him from office

Conspiracy is a much broader crime than is generally understood. The guidelines for judges who instruct juries say that the prosecution need only prove that there was “a mutual understanding, either spoken or unspoken, [Emphasis added] between two or more people to cooperate with each other to accomplish an unlawful act.”

It doesn’t matter whether the “mutual understanding” was before, during or after the crime was committed. “It is not necessary that a defendant be fully informed of all the details of the conspiracy, or all of its participants,” the model jury instructions continue. “You need not find that the alleged members of the conspiracy met together and entered into any express or formal agreement.”

Much more good stuff great read!

That's ridiculous. There's no proof of a quid pro quo.

It's certainly likely that Flynn discussed with Russia that the Trump campaign wasn't in support of the Obama sanctions, but that's not evidence of anything nefarious. It is only evidence that Obama was irresponsible in slapping on significant sanctions on a world superpower one week before leaving office without consulting the Trump team.

[cammac]

Many of the Alternative Facts Russia probe narrative factually debunked in one place.

The Nunes memo actually revealed that the genesis of the FBI probe of Trump-Russia collusion was the activity of a Trump adviser (Papadopoulos) who had been apprised of dirt gathered by Russia on Clinton. It predated the FBI’s use of the Steele dossier, which is at the center of the grand alt-narrative, and showed that the FBI probe had been repeatedly validated by judges.

Republicans release a September 2016 text between the FBI’s Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, which said Barack Obama “wants to know everything we’re doing.” This is supposed to demonstrate Obama interference in the FBI probe of Clinton. But there was no Clinton probe at the time — it had been resolved in July (and was only reopened in late October). What’s more, associates of Strzok and Page say Obama actually wanted information on Russian meddling. This makes much more sense — and, if true, it shows that this “scandal” is that Obama wanted information on Russian sabotage of our democracy, which Trump still often maintains never happened.

Republicans darkly said another Strzok-Page text containing the words “secret society” signaled deep FBI corruption. Then the full text was released, and it turned out to be about calendars and appeared to be a joke.

Congressional GOP investigators are preparing to interview an informant who supposedly has the goods on the Uranium One “scandal,” in which Clinton supposedly authorized a deal in which Russia obtained uranium extraction rights in the United States, in exchange for kickbacks to the Clinton Foundation. But top Oversight and Intelligence committee Democrats just released a letter claiming that the Justice Department privately briefed committee staffers and told them that the Justice Department had actually dismissed the reliability of this informant in a separate investigation. To be fair, this has not been confirmed. But as it is, the idea that the Uranium One deal is a scandal has already been thoroughly debunked. And independent reporting is likely to confirm that account soon enough.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/02/09/devin-nunes-laughable-spin-to-protect-trump-crashes-and-burns/?utm_term=.350aa9d62fc8#comments

Democrats are trying to have it both ways. They turn Carter Page into the next Algier Hiss to justify spying on Trump. And then when we complain about the scant evidence they had against Page, they change the subject and focus on Papadopolous. The problem is Papadopolous is a harmless striver who wasn't even on the payroll of the Trump campaign. You can't wiretap a whole campaign because of a drunken conversation some volunteer has with an Australian diplomat.

OLD AXIOM LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS!

[TGW]

LOL so it looks like the Trump Administration is set to destroy the federal budget. But let me guess....FAKE NEWS!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/03/the-u-s-government-is-set-to-borrow-nearly-1-trillion-this-year/?utm_term=.d3d264ea11e9

The U.S. government is set to borrow nearly $1 trillion this year, an 84 percent jump from last year


By Heather Long
February 3

It was another crazy news week, so it's understandable if you missed a small but important announcement from the Treasury Department: The federal government is on track to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year — Trump's first full year in charge of the budget.

[b]That's almost double what the government borrowed in fiscal 2017.[/b]

Here are the exact figures: The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $955 billion this fiscal year, according to documents released Wednesday. It's the highest amount of borrowing in six years, and a big jump from the $519 billion the federal government borrowed last year.

Treasury mainly attributed the increase to the “fiscal outlook.” The Congressional Budget Office was more blunt. In a report this week, the CBO said tax receipts are going to be lower because of the new tax law.

The uptick in borrowing is yet another complication in the heated debates in Congress over whether to spend more money on infrastructure, the military, disaster relief and other domestic programs. The deficit is already up significantly, even before Congress allots more money to any of these areas.

“We're addicted to debt,” says Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. He blames both parties for the situation.

What's particularly jarring is this is the first time borrowing has jumped this much (as a share of GDP) in a non-recession time since Ronald Reagan was president, says Ernie Tedeschi, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Treasury who is now head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI. Under Reagan, borrowing spiked because of a buildup in the military, something Trump is advocating again.


Trump didn't mention the debt — or the ongoing budget deficits — in his State of the Union address. The absence of any mention of the national debt was frustrating for Goldwein and others who warn that America has a major economic problem looming.

“It is terrible. Those deficits and the debt that keeps rising is a serious problem, not only in the long run, but right now,” Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, a former Reagan adviser, told Bloomberg News.

1:09
Dow sees biggest drop since 2016
A strong jobs report and disappointing earnings slammed Wall Street on Feb. 2. The Dow suffered its worst percentage drop since June 2016. (Reuters)

The White House got a taste this week of just how problematic this debt situation could get. Investors are concerned about all the additional borrowing and the likelihood of higher inflation, which is why the interest rates on U.S. government bonds hit the highest level since 2014. That, in turn, partly drove the worst weekly sell-off in the stock market in two years.

The belief in Washington and on Wall Street has long been that the U.S. government could just keep issuing debt because people around the world are eager to buy up this safe-haven asset. But there may be a limit to how much the market wants, especially if inflation starts rising and investors prefer to ditch bonds for higher-returning stocks.

“Some of my Wall Street clients are starting to talk recession in 2019 because of these issues. Fiscal policy is just out of control,” says Peter Davis, a former tax economist in Congress who now runs Davis Capital Investment Ideas.

The Federal Reserve was also buying a lot of U.S. Treasury debt since the crisis, helping to beef up demand. But the Fed recently decided to stop doing that now that the economy has improved. It's another wrinkle as Treasury has to look for new buyers.

Tedeschi, the former Treasury adviser to the Obama administration, calls it “concerning, but not a crisis.” Still, he says it's a “big risk” to plan on borrowing so much in the coming years.

Trump's Treasury forecasts borrowing more than $1 trillion in 2019 and more than $1.1 trillion in 2020. Before taking office, Trump described himself as the “king of debt,” although he campaigned on reducing the national debt.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts the U.S. deficit will hit $1 trillion by 2019 and stay there for a while. The latest borrowing figure — $955 billion — released this week was determined from a survey of bond market participants, who tend to be even faster to react to the changing policy landscape and change their forecasts.

Both parties claim they want to be “fiscally responsible,” but Goldwein says they both pass legislation that adds to the debt. Politicians argue this is the last time they'll pass a bill that makes the deficit worse, but so far, they just keep going.

The latest example of largesse is the GOP tax bill. It's expected to add $1 trillion or more to the debt, according to nonpartisan analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation (and yes, that's after accounting for some increased economic growth).

But even before that, Goldwein points to the 2015 extension of many tax cuts and the 2014 delays in Medicare reimbursement cuts.

“Every time you feed your addiction, you grow your addiction,” says Goldwein.

There doesn't seem to be any appetite for budgetary restraint in Washington, but the market may force Congress's hand.

Popper/DCkings...what's going on here?

[nate33]

LOL so it looks like the Trump Administration is set to destroy the federal budget. But let me guess....FAKE NEWS!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/03/the-u-s-government-is-set-to-borrow-nearly-1-trillion-this-year/?utm_term=.d3d264ea11e9

The U.S. government is set to borrow nearly $1 trillion this year, an 84 percent jump from last year


By Heather Long
February 3

It was another crazy news week, so it's understandable if you missed a small but important announcement from the Treasury Department: The federal government is on track to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year — Trump's first full year in charge of the budget.

That's almost double what the government borrowed in fiscal 2017.

Here are the exact figures: The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $955 billion this fiscal year, according to documents released Wednesday. It's the highest amount of borrowing in six years, and a big jump from the $519 billion the federal government borrowed last year.

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Treasury mainly attributed the increase to the “fiscal outlook.” The Congressional Budget Office was more blunt. In a report this week, the CBO said tax receipts are going to be lower because of the new tax law.

24:43
Watch Trump’s full speech on the economy
President Trump said during a Jan. 18 speech in Coraopolis, Pa., that Republicans’ tax overhaul is already benefiting the U.S. economy. (The Washington Post)

The uptick in borrowing is yet another complication in the heated debates in Congress over whether to spend more money on infrastructure, the military, disaster relief and other domestic programs. The deficit is already up significantly, even before Congress allots more money to any of these areas.

“We're addicted to debt,” says Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. He blames both parties for the situation.

What's particularly jarring is this is the first time borrowing has jumped this much (as a share of GDP) in a non-recession time since Ronald Reagan was president, says Ernie Tedeschi, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Treasury who is now head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI. Under Reagan, borrowing spiked because of a buildup in the military, something Trump is advocating again.


Trump didn't mention the debt — or the ongoing budget deficits — in his State of the Union address. The absence of any mention of the national debt was frustrating for Goldwein and others who warn that America has a major economic problem looming.

“It is terrible. Those deficits and the debt that keeps rising is a serious problem, not only in the long run, but right now,” Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, a former Reagan adviser, told Bloomberg News.

1:09
Dow sees biggest drop since 2016
A strong jobs report and disappointing earnings slammed Wall Street on Feb. 2. The Dow suffered its worst percentage drop since June 2016. (Reuters)

The White House got a taste this week of just how problematic this debt situation could get. Investors are concerned about all the additional borrowing and the likelihood of higher inflation, which is why the interest rates on U.S. government bonds hit the highest level since 2014. That, in turn, partly drove the worst weekly sell-off in the stock market in two years.

The belief in Washington and on Wall Street has long been that the U.S. government could just keep issuing debt because people around the world are eager to buy up this safe-haven asset. But there may be a limit to how much the market wants, especially if inflation starts rising and investors prefer to ditch bonds for higher-returning stocks.

“Some of my Wall Street clients are starting to talk recession in 2019 because of these issues. Fiscal policy is just out of control,” says Peter Davis, a former tax economist in Congress who now runs Davis Capital Investment Ideas.

The Federal Reserve was also buying a lot of U.S. Treasury debt since the crisis, helping to beef up demand. But the Fed recently decided to stop doing that now that the economy has improved. It's another wrinkle as Treasury has to look for new buyers.

Tedeschi, the former Treasury adviser to the Obama administration, calls it “concerning, but not a crisis.” Still, he says it's a “big risk” to plan on borrowing so much in the coming years.

Trump's Treasury forecasts borrowing more than $1 trillion in 2019 and more than $1.1 trillion in 2020. Before taking office, Trump described himself as the “king of debt,” although he campaigned on reducing the national debt.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts the U.S. deficit will hit $1 trillion by 2019 and stay there for a while. The latest borrowing figure — $955 billion — released this week was determined from a survey of bond market participants, who tend to be even faster to react to the changing policy landscape and change their forecasts.

Both parties claim they want to be “fiscally responsible,” but Goldwein says they both pass legislation that adds to the debt. Politicians argue this is the last time they'll pass a bill that makes the deficit worse, but so far, they just keep going.

The latest example of largesse is the GOP tax bill. It's expected to add $1 trillion or more to the debt, according to nonpartisan analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation (and yes, that's after accounting for some increased economic growth).

But even before that, Goldwein points to the 2015 extension of many tax cuts and the 2014 delays in Medicare reimbursement cuts.

“Every time you feed your addiction, you grow your addiction,” says Goldwein.

There doesn't seem to be any appetite for budgetary restraint in Washington, but the market may force Congress's hand.

No, it's not fake news. The Republicans are indeed destroying the budget. It's easy to cut taxes. It's hard to cut spending. (Just as for Democrats, it's easy to increase spending and hard to increase taxes.) The problem is that the Republicans and Trump don't have the political capital right now to make the tough decisions on cutting spending. So they didn't.

[Doug_Blew]

The problem is Papadopolous is a harmless striver who wasn't even on the payroll of the Trump campaign. You can't wiretap a whole campaign because of a drunken conversation some volunteer has with an Australian diplomat.

If Papadopolous was such a nobody, who are all these high level Trump officials that are talking to him that are being caught on his wiretap?

[stilldropin20]

LOL so it looks like the Trump Administration is set to destroy the federal budget. But let me guess....FAKE NEWS!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/03/the-u-s-government-is-set-to-borrow-nearly-1-trillion-this-year/?utm_term=.d3d264ea11e9

The U.S. government is set to borrow nearly $1 trillion this year, an 84 percent jump from last year


By Heather Long
February 3

It was another crazy news week, so it's understandable if you missed a small but important announcement from the Treasury Department: The federal government is on track to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year — Trump's first full year in charge of the budget.

That's almost double what the government borrowed in fiscal 2017.

Here are the exact figures: The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $955 billion this fiscal year, according to documents released Wednesday. It's the highest amount of borrowing in six years, and a big jump from the $519 billion the federal government borrowed last year.

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Treasury mainly attributed the increase to the “fiscal outlook.” The Congressional Budget Office was more blunt. In a report this week, the CBO said tax receipts are going to be lower because of the new tax law.

24:43
Watch Trump’s full speech on the economy
President Trump said during a Jan. 18 speech in Coraopolis, Pa., that Republicans’ tax overhaul is already benefiting the U.S. economy. (The Washington Post)

The uptick in borrowing is yet another complication in the heated debates in Congress over whether to spend more money on infrastructure, the military, disaster relief and other domestic programs. The deficit is already up significantly, even before Congress allots more money to any of these areas.

“We're addicted to debt,” says Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. He blames both parties for the situation.

What's particularly jarring is this is the first time borrowing has jumped this much (as a share of GDP) in a non-recession time since Ronald Reagan was president, says Ernie Tedeschi, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Treasury who is now head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI. Under Reagan, borrowing spiked because of a buildup in the military, something Trump is advocating again.


Trump didn't mention the debt — or the ongoing budget deficits — in his State of the Union address. The absence of any mention of the national debt was frustrating for Goldwein and others who warn that America has a major economic problem looming.

“It is terrible. Those deficits and the debt that keeps rising is a serious problem, not only in the long run, but right now,” Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, a former Reagan adviser, told Bloomberg News.

1:09
Dow sees biggest drop since 2016
A strong jobs report and disappointing earnings slammed Wall Street on Feb. 2. The Dow suffered its worst percentage drop since June 2016. (Reuters)

The White House got a taste this week of just how problematic this debt situation could get. Investors are concerned about all the additional borrowing and the likelihood of higher inflation, which is why the interest rates on U.S. government bonds hit the highest level since 2014. That, in turn, partly drove the worst weekly sell-off in the stock market in two years.

The belief in Washington and on Wall Street has long been that the U.S. government could just keep issuing debt because people around the world are eager to buy up this safe-haven asset. But there may be a limit to how much the market wants, especially if inflation starts rising and investors prefer to ditch bonds for higher-returning stocks.

“Some of my Wall Street clients are starting to talk recession in 2019 because of these issues. Fiscal policy is just out of control,” says Peter Davis, a former tax economist in Congress who now runs Davis Capital Investment Ideas.

The Federal Reserve was also buying a lot of U.S. Treasury debt since the crisis, helping to beef up demand. But the Fed recently decided to stop doing that now that the economy has improved. It's another wrinkle as Treasury has to look for new buyers.

Tedeschi, the former Treasury adviser to the Obama administration, calls it “concerning, but not a crisis.” Still, he says it's a “big risk” to plan on borrowing so much in the coming years.

Trump's Treasury forecasts borrowing more than $1 trillion in 2019 and more than $1.1 trillion in 2020. Before taking office, Trump described himself as the “king of debt,” although he campaigned on reducing the national debt.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts the U.S. deficit will hit $1 trillion by 2019 and stay there for a while. The latest borrowing figure — $955 billion — released this week was determined from a survey of bond market participants, who tend to be even faster to react to the changing policy landscape and change their forecasts.

Both parties claim they want to be “fiscally responsible,” but Goldwein says they both pass legislation that adds to the debt. Politicians argue this is the last time they'll pass a bill that makes the deficit worse, but so far, they just keep going.

The latest example of largesse is the GOP tax bill. It's expected to add $1 trillion or more to the debt, according to nonpartisan analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation (and yes, that's after accounting for some increased economic growth).

But even before that, Goldwein points to the 2015 extension of many tax cuts and the 2014 delays in Medicare reimbursement cuts.

“Every time you feed your addiction, you grow your addiction,” says Goldwein.

There doesn't seem to be any appetite for budgetary restraint in Washington, but the market may force Congress's hand.

No, it's not fake news. The Republicans are indeed destroying the budget. It's easy to cut taxes. It's hard to cut spending. (Just as for Democrats, it's easy to increase spending and hard to increase taxes.) The problem is that the Republicans and Trump don't have the political capital right now to make the tough decisions on cutting spending. So they didn't.

Yeah, I'm beginning to think that the 15-month political witch-hunt from mainstream media... every single day 24/7... has Robbed the American people of what they elected Donald Trump to do which what was to run the United States like a business and make the tough decisions to cut spending. To target and end wasteful programs that didn't move needles.

Democrats and the mainstream media just did not want to give this man any chance at all to run our government.

Hopefully he can recover. They need to find a way to force mueller to lay his cards or on collusion. He has it or he doesn't. It's time to know. Keep looking into meddling for sure but it's time for the collusion narrative to end.



Sent from my SM-N920T using RealGM mobile app

[cammac]

LOL so it looks like the Trump Administration is set to destroy the federal budget. But let me guess....FAKE NEWS!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/03/the-u-s-government-is-set-to-borrow-nearly-1-trillion-this-year/?utm_term=.d3d264ea11e9

No, it's not fake news. The Republicans are indeed destroying the budget. It's easy to cut taxes. It's hard to cut spending. (Just as for Democrats, it's easy to increase spending and hard to increase taxes.) The problem is that the Republicans and Trump don't have the political capital right now to make the tough decisions on cutting spending. So they didn't.

Yeah, I'm beginning to think that the 15-month political witch-hunt from mainstream media... every single day 24/7... has Robbed the American people of what they elected Donald Trump to do which what was to run the United States like a business and make the tough decisions to cut spending. To target and end wasteful programs that didn't move needles.

Democrats and the mainstream media just did not want to give this man any chance at all to run our government.

Hopefully he can recover. They need to find a way to force mueller to lay his cards or on collusion. He has it or he doesn't. It's time to know. Keep looking into meddling for sure but it's time for the collusion narrative to end.



Sent from my SM-N920T using RealGM mobile app

Get serious!
What has doomed Trump is Trump
His obsession with Hillary Clinton and Obama!
His lack of leadership!
His hires in the White House how many have legitimate security clearance?
Without a doubt the worst cabinet for competence in USA modern Presidential history.
Lack of accomplishments!
Obsession with a Wall which is opposed by many Republicans.
Gutting environment protections for "CLEAN COAL"
Turnover of top people in the "White House" looking at a likely change in Chief of Staff.
Nepotism
More time watching Fox than doing the nations business.
Strapping the American public with huge costs because of his golfing obsession.
But he does control the Congress, Senate & White House why can't he accomplish anything.
Even Nate knows the tax cuts were a fraud!!!!!!

[TGW]

So even though the Republicans own the House, Congress, and the Whitehouse...BLAME THE DEMOCRATS!

Pathetic.

[DCZards]

Yeah, I'm beginning to think that the 15-month political witch-hunt from mainstream media... every single day 24/7... has Robbed the American people of what they elected Donald Trump to do which what was to run the United States like a business and make the tough decisions to cut spending. To target and end wasteful programs that didn't move needles.

Democrats and the mainstream media just did not want to give this man any chance at all to run our government.

Hopefully he can recover. They need to find a way to force mueller to lay his cards or on collusion. He has it or he doesn't. It's time to know. Keep looking into meddling for sure but it's time for the collusion narrative to end.

Get serious!
What has doomed Trump is Trump
His obsession with Hillary Clinton and Obama!
His lack of leadership!
His hires in the White House how many have legitimate security clearance?
Without a doubt the worst cabinet for competence in USA modern Presidential history.
Lack of accomplishments!
Obsession with a Wall which is opposed by many Republicans.
Gutting environment protections for "CLEAN COAL"
Turnover of top people in the "White House" looking at a likely change in Chief of Staff.
Nepotism
More time watching Fox than doing the nations business.
Strapping the American public with huge costs because of his golfing obsession.
But he does control the Congress, Senate & White House why can't he accomplish anything.
Even Nate knows the tax cuts were a fraud!!!!!!

SD20 is true and consistent Trump acolyte. He absolutely refuses to hold the Liar-in-Chief accountable for the damage that he's doing to this country.

I'm expecting #45 to name SD20 the Honorary Grand Marshall for his ridiculous military parade.

[JWizmentality]

Here's a simple question for you to contemplate:

What if Schiff actually did include classified information that reveals sources on that memo? What exactly is Trump supposed to do?

There is certainly some classified info that none of us would want revealed. Problem is that Trump has already proven to us--time and time again--that he's a prolific liar. So it's right and reasonable that he not be trusted in this instance as well.

Answer my question. What is Trump supposed to do? How is it possible for Trump not to be blamed for Schiff including classified information into the memo?

Stop with the games. The DOJ and FBI warned Trump not to release the Nunes crap and they did anyway. So stop with the fake concern. It's beyond pathetic

Oh yeah I forgot.

FBI/DOJ = Deep State
Trump = Honest man. Victim.