Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 6

[lilfishi22]

He's gotta be the most controversial player in the league that didn't generate the controversy.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Chandler is starting why no Center Bender.

[lilfishi22]

Chandler is starting why no Center Bender.

Who else is in the starting line up?

[bwgood77]

I wonder if we're the team here who offered Memphis the two seconds for Tyreke...(though I guess Woj could have been talking about Denver like Lowe was....at first I thought it sounded like another team)...from CleaningtheGlass.com

For example, Memphis may have overplayed its hand with Tyreke Evans. Adrian Wojnarowski reported that they had an offer of two second-round picks for Evans, and Zach Lowe indicated that they would have been able to get Mudiay and a second-round pick or two seconds from Denver. Without knowing the quality of the second rounders offered it’s difficult to fully judge their decision not to take either offer (if the reporting is correct). But at first glance it seems questionable: the Grizzlies are not trying to win the rest of the year and they have only non-Bird rights on Evans because he signed a 1-year deal in the offseason. Non-Bird rights allow a team to exceed the cap to re-sign their own player, but only up to 120% of their previous salary. Evans made $3.3M this year — it seems unlikely his starting salary will be low enough that Memphis will be able to use those non-Bird rights on him this offseason.

So the Grizzlies had no advantage to keeping him compared to letting him walk. If Evans wanted to return to Memphis for the full mid-level exception or even a portion, the Grizzlies could have traded him and then offered him that deal this offseason. If he commands more than the mid-level, they won’t be able to retain him. The only case to make is that perhaps continuity makes it more likely he’d accept a similar offer in Memphis to one he could get elsewhere, and the Grizzlies are looking at this upcoming offseason’s cap room numbers and figuring they’ll be able to get him on a good deal.

So even if it was a tactical misstep, it is tied into the cap spike. Memphis has over $100M in committed salaries next season — they don’t have the flexibility to take a hammer and smash open the piggy bank this offseason to pay Evans. That the Grizzlies felt they were going to try and keep Tyreke beyond this year suggests they think the market on him will be reasonable.

Looking at the picks...if there was another team offering two seconds, it was probably Philly.

[bwgood77]

More on the market possibly re-setting...from cleaningtheglass...

we have some early evidence of that. The Lou Williams extension may help reset the market. Williams will be coming off two consecutive career seasons where he has played with sky-high usage and sky-high efficiency — the stuff of offensive stars. And these don’t just seem to be empty stats: his offensive Real Plus-Minus ranks 7th in the entire NBA this year, and ranked 16th last year. His defense may be a disaster, but for a 31 year old who seemed to be slated to sign his last big contract this offseason, you couldn’t ask for better timing for these incredible numbers.

And yet Williams signed a contract for below the mid-level exception with a small, partial guarantee in the final year. Generally when players sign extensions, they do so because they feel they’re getting a deal they know is good for them. Otherwise they’re not being compensated for avoiding testing the market. But if this contract is a premium on what Williams would get this summer, there are a lot of players in for a rude awakening.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I wonder if we're the team here who offered Memphis the two seconds for Tyreke...(though I guess Woj could have been talking about Denver like Lowe was....at first I thought it sounded like another team)...from CleaningtheGlass.com

For example, Memphis may have overplayed its hand with Tyreke Evans. Adrian Wojnarowski reported that they had an offer of two second-round picks for Evans, and Zach Lowe indicated that they would have been able to get Mudiay and a second-round pick or two seconds from Denver. Without knowing the quality of the second rounders offered it’s difficult to fully judge their decision not to take either offer (if the reporting is correct). But at first glance it seems questionable: the Grizzlies are not trying to win the rest of the year and they have only non-Bird rights on Evans because he signed a 1-year deal in the offseason. Non-Bird rights allow a team to exceed the cap to re-sign their own player, but only up to 120% of their previous salary. Evans made $3.3M this year — it seems unlikely his starting salary will be low enough that Memphis will be able to use those non-Bird rights on him this offseason.

So the Grizzlies had no advantage to keeping him compared to letting him walk. If Evans wanted to return to Memphis for the full mid-level exception or even a portion, the Grizzlies could have traded him and then offered him that deal this offseason. If he commands more than the mid-level, they won’t be able to retain him. The only case to make is that perhaps continuity makes it more likely he’d accept a similar offer in Memphis to one he could get elsewhere, and the Grizzlies are looking at this upcoming offseason’s cap room numbers and figuring they’ll be able to get him on a good deal.

So even if it was a tactical misstep, it is tied into the cap spike. Memphis has over $100M in committed salaries next season — they don’t have the flexibility to take a hammer and smash open the piggy bank this offseason to pay Evans. That the Grizzlies felt they were going to try and keep Tyreke beyond this year suggests they think the market on him will be reasonable.

Looking at the picks...if there was another team offering two seconds, it was probably Philly.

I wouldn't be shocked if the deal was - PHX sends 2 2ds to MEM, BOS gets Evans, PHX gets Smart.

In any case, if the 2ds were coming from us, I guarantee there was a third team involved.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

More on the market possibly re-setting...from cleaningtheglass...

we have some early evidence of that. The Lou Williams extension may help reset the market. Williams will be coming off two consecutive career seasons where he has played with sky-high usage and sky-high efficiency — the stuff of offensive stars. And these don’t just seem to be empty stats: his offensive Real Plus-Minus ranks 7th in the entire NBA this year, and ranked 16th last year. His defense may be a disaster, but for a 31 year old who seemed to be slated to sign his last big contract this offseason, you couldn’t ask for better timing for these incredible numbers.

And yet Williams signed a contract for below the mid-level exception with a small, partial guarantee in the final year. Generally when players sign extensions, they do so because they feel they’re getting a deal they know is good for them. Otherwise they’re not being compensated for avoiding testing the market. But if this contract is a premium on what Williams would get this summer, there are a lot of players in for a rude awakening.

My guess is there will be a lot of Opt-Outs that don't get exercised this summer. DAJ ain't getting $24 mil per this summer.

[BobbieL]

I wonder if we're the team here who offered Memphis the two seconds for Tyreke...(though I guess Woj could have been talking about Denver like Lowe was....at first I thought it sounded like another team)...from CleaningtheGlass.com

For example, Memphis may have overplayed its hand with Tyreke Evans. Adrian Wojnarowski reported that they had an offer of two second-round picks for Evans, and Zach Lowe indicated that they would have been able to get Mudiay and a second-round pick or two seconds from Denver. Without knowing the quality of the second rounders offered it’s difficult to fully judge their decision not to take either offer (if the reporting is correct). But at first glance it seems questionable: the Grizzlies are not trying to win the rest of the year and they have only non-Bird rights on Evans because he signed a 1-year deal in the offseason. Non-Bird rights allow a team to exceed the cap to re-sign their own player, but only up to 120% of their previous salary. Evans made $3.3M this year — it seems unlikely his starting salary will be low enough that Memphis will be able to use those non-Bird rights on him this offseason.

So the Grizzlies had no advantage to keeping him compared to letting him walk. If Evans wanted to return to Memphis for the full mid-level exception or even a portion, the Grizzlies could have traded him and then offered him that deal this offseason. If he commands more than the mid-level, they won’t be able to retain him. The only case to make is that perhaps continuity makes it more likely he’d accept a similar offer in Memphis to one he could get elsewhere, and the Grizzlies are looking at this upcoming offseason’s cap room numbers and figuring they’ll be able to get him on a good deal.

So even if it was a tactical misstep, it is tied into the cap spike. Memphis has over $100M in committed salaries next season — they don’t have the flexibility to take a hammer and smash open the piggy bank this offseason to pay Evans. That the Grizzlies felt they were going to try and keep Tyreke beyond this year suggests they think the market on him will be reasonable.

Looking at the picks...if there was another team offering two seconds, it was probably Philly.

I wouldn't be shocked if the deal was - PHX sends 2 2ds to MEM, BOS gets Evans, PHX gets Smart.

In any case, if the 2ds were coming from us, I guarantee there was a third team involved.

With salaries going down that might have the Suns gets a pretty good player of value. Tyreke Evans possibly. He might be good with the mid-level for a few years. Maybe with Knight too . But scoring the ball is so hard for these guys

Suns need scoring so bad. I am liking Payton so far - looking forward to him and Booker - after the ASB.

Suns have the most losses in the league. They are 2-12 in last 14 games. 18-40 - looking at 25 wins. They will earn this top 3 pick without tanking. They deserve decent ping pong balls. Atlanta, Dallas, Suns, Sac-town -- Cavs and Celtics don't need the top picks NBA!

[hollywood6964]

More on the market possibly re-setting...from cleaningtheglass...

we have some early evidence of that. The Lou Williams extension may help reset the market. Williams will be coming off two consecutive career seasons where he has played with sky-high usage and sky-high efficiency — the stuff of offensive stars. And these don’t just seem to be empty stats: his offensive Real Plus-Minus ranks 7th in the entire NBA this year, and ranked 16th last year. His defense may be a disaster, but for a 31 year old who seemed to be slated to sign his last big contract this offseason, you couldn’t ask for better timing for these incredible numbers.

And yet Williams signed a contract for below the mid-level exception with a small, partial guarantee in the final year. Generally when players sign extensions, they do so because they feel they’re getting a deal they know is good for them. Otherwise they’re not being compensated for avoiding testing the market. But if this contract is a premium on what Williams would get this summer, there are a lot of players in for a rude awakening.

My guess is there will be a lot of Opt-Outs that don't get exercised this summer. DAJ ain't getting $24 mil per this summer.

I really hope so. But I do think Payton will account for 2-3 extra wins, at least. N I think we'll drop out of the top 3 with that, if healthy.

Like I said before he played his first game, you'll see the impact he has, especially because we were playing a huge hope at pg all season. N w book..... You'll see some wins against some lesser opponents. We'll have a 4 out of 6 little run that knock us out of it.

But like I said, hopefully not, we really need the pick as an asset, plus that mean we can resign Payton for even less.

[BobbieL]

More on the market possibly re-setting...from cleaningtheglass...

My guess is there will be a lot of Opt-Outs that don't get exercised this summer. DAJ ain't getting $24 mil per this summer.

I really hope so. But I do think Payton will account for 2-3 extra wins, at least. N I think we'll drop out of the top 3 with that, if healthy.

Like I said before he played his first game, you'll see the impact he has, especially because we were playing a huge hope at pg all season. N w book..... You'll see some wins against some lesser opponents. We'll have a 4 out of 6 little run that knock us out of it.

But like I said, hopefully not, we really need the pick as an asset, plus that mean we can resign Payton for even less.

if the Suns do drop out of the top five because of signing Payton and getting wins - hopefully the ping pong balls will go there way

knowing the NBA - the Celtics and Cavs will draft both in the top 3 but hopefully the Suns will be rewarded with their record

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

My guess is there will be a lot of Opt-Outs that don't get exercised this summer. DAJ ain't getting $24 mil per this summer.

I really hope so. But I do think Payton will account for 2-3 extra wins, at least. N I think we'll drop out of the top 3 with that, if healthy.

Like I said before he played his first game, you'll see the impact he has, especially because we were playing a huge hope at pg all season. N w book..... You'll see some wins against some lesser opponents. We'll have a 4 out of 6 little run that knock us out of it.

But like I said, hopefully not, we really need the pick as an asset, plus that mean we can resign Payton for even less.

if the Suns do drop out of the top five because of signing Payton and getting wins - hopefully the ping pong balls will go there way

knowing the NBA - the Celtics and Cavs will draft both in the top 3 but hopefully the Suns will be rewarded with their record

I don't think there's a huge drop off within the top 5. I do think that we could pick it up and get out of the cellar, even with our difficult schedule, by the end of the year. But I find it hard to be very concerned about the downside there.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I think the drop off point in this draft is pick 8. So as long as they finish in the bottom 6 record wise that gives them a buffer of one team jumping them and still picking top 7 (the chances of more than one team outside of the top 6 moving up is very slim).

Of course of those 7 there are guys I would rather have so picking higher is best but **** this team is so bad with so many needs if any of those top 7 play up to their potential they help this team. Say they pick 6 or 7 and have to pick Bamba or Bagley well not my top choices but Bagley instantly helps their post scoring and rebounding and Bamba gives them the rim protection that Chandlers corpse is currently not giving them. Say they take JJJ around 5 or 6 well he gives them much needed defense and hopefully can keep hitting outside shots. Young gives them another dynamic shot maker and passer and at least makes them more competitive. Ayton inside scoring and rebounding. Porter would give them another dynamic player on offense. I'm actually starting to think he might have to move up on the Suns board because they still need another high impact player and Porter might have the highest upside in the draft. Doncic is my dream scenario because I think he gives them multiple things they need and I think he's going to be a good player the day he steps on an NBA court. I don't know how anyone watches five minutes of Luka play and doesn't simply say 'oh yeah that dude is good'.

[BobbieL]

I think the drop off point in this draft is pick 8. So as long as they finish in the bottom 6 record wise that gives them a buffer of one team jumping them and still picking top 7 (the chances of more than one team outside of the top 6 moving up is very slim).

Of course of those 7 there are guys I would rather have so picking higher is best but **** this team is so bad with so many needs if any of those top 7 play up to their potential they help this team. Say they pick 6 or 7 and have to pick Bamba or Bagley well not my top choices but Bagley instantly helps their post scoring and rebounding and Bamba gives them the rim protection that Chandlers corpse is currently not giving them. Say they take JJJ around 5 or 6 well he gives them much needed defense and hopefully can keep hitting outside shots. Young gives them another dynamic shot maker and passer and at least makes them more competitive. Ayton inside scoring and rebounding. Porter would give them another dynamic player on offense. I'm actually starting to think he might have to move up on the Suns board because they still need another high impact player and Porter might have the highest upside in the draft. Doncic is my dream scenario because I think he gives them multiple things they need.

that's kind of why I am hoping it somehow goes
Ayton
team that needs a forward like Porter or Bagley
Suns - Doncic

I am locking Ayton in at 1 right now because the physical ability is off the charts. Comparisons the Admiral and Dream with his footwork and body size. So after Ayton, where do teams go:

The Hawks have Schroeder (granted, he can be traded) so they have a Guard. Also Collins I believe. The Mavs have Dennis Smith - not saying Doncic is out but just saying -- they probably go frontcourt with a pick at 2 or 3. The Magic probably want Doncic

Suns - they can use a high impact player like Ayton or Porter - but if not those two Doncic.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I think the drop off point in this draft is pick 8. So as long as they finish in the bottom 6 record wise that gives them a buffer of one team jumping them and still picking top 7 (the chances of more than one team outside of the top 6 moving up is very slim).

Of course of those 7 there are guys I would rather have so picking higher is best but **** this team is so bad with so many needs if any of those top 7 play up to their potential they help this team. Say they pick 6 or 7 and have to pick Bamba or Bagley well not my top choices but Bagley instantly helps their post scoring and rebounding and Bamba gives them the rim protection that Chandlers corpse is currently not giving them. Say they take JJJ around 5 or 6 well he gives them much needed defense and hopefully can keep hitting outside shots. Young gives them another dynamic shot maker and passer and at least makes them more competitive. Ayton inside scoring and rebounding. Porter would give them another dynamic player on offense. I'm actually starting to think he might have to move up on the Suns board because they still need another high impact player and Porter might have the highest upside in the draft. Doncic is my dream scenario because I think he gives them multiple things they need.

that's kind of why I am hoping it somehow goes
Ayton
team that needs a forward like Porter or Bagley
Suns - Doncic

I am locking Ayton in at 1 right now because the physical ability is off the charts. Comparisons the Admiral and Dream with his footwork and body size. So after Ayton, where do teams go:

The Hawks have Schroeder (granted, he can be traded) so they have a Guard. Also Collins I believe. The Mavs have Dennis Smith - not saying Doncic is out but just saying -- they probably go frontcourt with a pick at 2 or 3. The Magic probably want Doncic

Suns - they can use a high impact player like Ayton or Porter - but if not those two Doncic.

I agree that Ayton is the one guy that GM's could talk themselves into over Doncic simply because of his unreal physical traits but 2 is probably the floor for Doncic. The nice thing with Doncic is he's such a good all around player and at 6'8 you can slot him in at any position 1-3 so need won't come into play as much. I think teams are going to fall in love with his 'star' personality; dude just has a killer 'it' about him at a crazy young age.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Trade related question. Say Atlanta grabs Young or Doncic and decides to trade Schroeder. Would you rather have Schroeder at $15m and whatever you would need to trade for him or Payton at whatever they can resign him at? I'd probably lean Payton and spend that trade asset in another area of need.

[bwgood77]

I think the drop off point in this draft is pick 8. So as long as they finish in the bottom 6 record wise that gives them a buffer of one team jumping them and still picking top 7 (the chances of more than one team outside of the top 6 moving up is very slim).

Of course of those 7 there are guys I would rather have so picking higher is best but **** this team is so bad with so many needs if any of those top 7 play up to their potential they help this team. Say they pick 6 or 7 and have to pick Bamba or Bagley well not my top choices but Bagley instantly helps their post scoring and rebounding and Bamba gives them the rim protection that Chandlers corpse is currently not giving them. Say they take JJJ around 5 or 6 well he gives them much needed defense and hopefully can keep hitting outside shots. Young gives them another dynamic shot maker and passer and at least makes them more competitive. Ayton inside scoring and rebounding. Porter would give them another dynamic player on offense. I'm actually starting to think he might have to move up on the Suns board because they still need another high impact player and Porter might have the highest upside in the draft. Doncic is my dream scenario because I think he gives them multiple things they need and I think he's going to be a good player the day he steps on an NBA court. I don't know how anyone watches five minutes of Luka play and doesn't simply say 'oh yeah that dude is good'.

We desperately need shooting so bad, my top 3 are Doncic, Young and Porter. JJJ would be great too because he addresses both things we desperately need...shooting and defense. I think with a frontcourt of JJJ and Bender our rim protection and ability to switch is excellent. We would just struggle against bigger guys so may need to sign a cheap brute for guys like that.

Ayton and his physical stuff his good and Bagley's energy but neither of those guys address our two biggest needs...defense and shooting....we are just clogging things more in a clogged offense and not improving our D both at the same time.

[RunDogGun]

Trade related question. Say Atlanta grabs Young or Doncic and decides to trade Schroeder. Would you rather have Schroeder at $15m and whatever you would need to trade for him or Payton at whatever they can resign him at? I'd probably lean Payton and spend that trade asset in another area of need.

I’d like to see Booker with Payton before making any judgements. So far without Booker, Payton has played well, and worthy of the starting point position.

[RunDogGun]

I think the drop off point in this draft is pick 8. So as long as they finish in the bottom 6 record wise that gives them a buffer of one team jumping them and still picking top 7 (the chances of more than one team outside of the top 6 moving up is very slim).

Of course of those 7 there are guys I would rather have so picking higher is best but **** this team is so bad with so many needs if any of those top 7 play up to their potential they help this team. Say they pick 6 or 7 and have to pick Bamba or Bagley well not my top choices but Bagley instantly helps their post scoring and rebounding and Bamba gives them the rim protection that Chandlers corpse is currently not giving them. Say they take JJJ around 5 or 6 well he gives them much needed defense and hopefully can keep hitting outside shots. Young gives them another dynamic shot maker and passer and at least makes them more competitive. Ayton inside scoring and rebounding. Porter would give them another dynamic player on offense. I'm actually starting to think he might have to move up on the Suns board because they still need another high impact player and Porter might have the highest upside in the draft. Doncic is my dream scenario because I think he gives them multiple things they need and I think he's going to be a good player the day he steps on an NBA court. I don't know how anyone watches five minutes of Luka play and doesn't simply say 'oh yeah that dude is good'.

We desperately need shooting so bad, my top 3 are Doncic, Young and Porter. JJJ would be great too because he addresses both things we desperately need...shooting and defense. I think with a frontcourt of JJJ and Bender our rim protection and ability to switch is excellent. We would just struggle against bigger guys so may need to sign a cheap brute for guys like that.

Ayton and his physical stuff his good and Bagley's energy but neither of those guys address our two biggest needs...defense and shooting....we are just clogging things more in a clogged offense and not improving our D both at the same time.

Is Williams strong enough to be that brute off the bench? I want JJJr with our pick, unless we can get Ayton. Then try and move up to get Shai. Get a solid coach with a proven system, and roll from there.

[BobbieL]

Trade related question. Say Atlanta grabs Young or Doncic and decides to trade Schroeder. Would you rather have Schroeder at $15m and whatever you would need to trade for him or Payton at whatever they can resign him at? I'd probably lean Payton and spend that trade asset in another area of need.

I’d like to see Booker with Payton before making any judgements. So far without Booker, Payton has played well, and worthy of the starting point position.

I think I need to see Payton with Booker and Warren - hopefully after the allstar break


I would agree - if possible - sign Payton and use other trade assets to get some scoring and defense

[carey]

We desperately need shooting so bad, my top 3 are Doncic, Young and Porter. JJJ would be great too because he addresses both things we desperately need...shooting and defense. I think with a frontcourt of JJJ and Bender our rim protection and ability to switch is excellent. We would just struggle against bigger guys so may need to sign a cheap brute for guys like that.

Ayton and his physical stuff his good and Bagley's energy but neither of those guys address our two biggest needs...defense and shooting....we are just clogging things more in a clogged offense and not improving our D both at the same time.

I feel like you're sleeping on Bagley. He looks like young Amare with a 3-point shot (35%) to me out there. He's relentless in attacking the rim on the block like Amare was the first few years.

I absolutely agree with you regarding our biggest problems at the moment. We need shooting and defense badly. Still, I think you go BPA in the draft.