The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[theo42]

Way to completely ignore the point when shown you’re wrong.

“Most people don’t think this is close”

Shown proof most people do.

“Well, here’s some stats!!” While you ignore the point.

Lol

No, that is the point. Delusion does not mean anything. Facts do in the end.

I agree. Like the fact that most people have this as a close race. Do you care to refute that by showing that most people do not?

It is "close" only in that DM is in 2nd place.

[bebopdeluxe]

Way to completely ignore the point when shown you’re wrong.

“Most people don’t think this is close”

Shown proof most people do.

“Well, here’s some stats!!” While you ignore the point.

Lol

No, that is the point. Delusion does not mean anything. Facts do in the end.

I agree. Like the fact that most people have this as a close race. Do you care to refute that by showing that most people do not?

I have no idea if it is a close race. The poll attached to this thread is not what I would call "scientific".

What I DO know is by the overwhelming majority of statistical analysis - both the top-10 "counting" stats listed above, as well as key advanced stats like WS, VORP and BPM, Simmons is SMOKING Mitchell. Fact.

Do I honestly care if Mitchell wins it? Nope...just like I didn't care that Brogdon beat Saric last year. Saric is smoking Brogdon in year 2 and THAT is what matters.

A simple question for you - an NBA GM poll of the other 28 GM's (no Jazz and Sixers) are asked simply which player they want - Simmons or Mitchell?

Who wins that poll?

I think Simmons wins in a landslide.

So...let Mitchell have the ROY. I don't care. We have SImmons.

[HurricaneKid]

FWIW, I'm a fan of neither team but I don't see how it's close between Simmons and Mitchell.

Simmons is only scoring <3 points less and actually sports a higher TS% - all while doing much more in all other facets of the game and putting up gaudier numbers than most other rookies in the history of the league. On the other hand, Mitchell's season so far is closer to OJ Mayo's than any transcendent player's.

TBH, I think only UTA fans think it's close.

Give Mitchell his props, but facts are facts.

Personally, need to see more of Mitchell. I do think he'll be a very good player - just not one on the level of Simmons, unfortunately. (Even after witnessing him absolutely torching my team not too long ago).

How about we take the first two weeks of the season when Mitchell was getting 12 min and rather just look at his stats since he started. He is 21/4/4 on .450 from the field, 36% from 3.

He turns the ball over too much, needs to work on his shot selection, and needs to add a little variance in speed (once he is by someone he needs to put them on his hip and slow down rather than staying at top speed). But suggesting OJ Mayo is a reasonable comp is just out of line.

Lets just drop the 21 to 20.2. Here are the players in the last 20 years to avg 20.2+ in their rookie seasons:
Duncan
LeBron
Melo
KD
Blake
Embiid

The last G to do it was AI. The last G to do it at 21 is MK. Lets stop pretending what Mitchell is doing is common. Its not. He might not win RoY, but he is going to be a special player.

Just providing my opinion from a third party's point-of-view.

Mitchell's season so far reminds me of OJ Mayo because he too had the green light to score and was a streaky shooter (though he wasn't as "chucker-y", if you will) who many called a star in his first season because of flashy numbers.

They were also both athletic 6-3 SG/PG types that scored in similar ways. Look at their percentages, reb/assists, A/TO, shot selection, low FTA, and etc. They are remarkably similar.

That's why I'm simply saying let's pump the brakes here when saying he's a transcendent player or anything like that.

I just need to see more. I'm sorry if that upsets UTA fans, but it is what it is. It's definitely impressive what he's doing so far.

Just not on the level of Simmons right now.

LOL@ OJ being in the REALM of Mitchell athletically.

OJ did it on a 24 win team. Mitchell is the primary scorer on what is now a playoff team. We've never seen a rookie G avg 20ppg on a playoff team and not win ROY.

I don't care if people think Simmons is RoY. I think he probably is. I just think its his supporters are electing to minimize Mitchell's performance rather than use Simmons' stellar season to bolster his claims. And that's a shame.

[loveandbeer]

How about we take the first two weeks of the season when Mitchell was getting 12 min and rather just look at his stats since he started. He is 21/4/4 on .450 from the field, 36% from 3.

He turns the ball over too much, needs to work on his shot selection, and needs to add a little variance in speed (once he is by someone he needs to put them on his hip and slow down rather than staying at top speed). But suggesting OJ Mayo is a reasonable comp is just out of line.

Lets just drop the 21 to 20.2. Here are the players in the last 20 years to avg 20.2+ in their rookie seasons:
Duncan
LeBron
Melo
KD
Blake
Embiid

The last G to do it was AI. The last G to do it at 21 is MK. Lets stop pretending what Mitchell is doing is common. Its not. He might not win RoY, but he is going to be a special player.

Just providing my opinion from a third party's point-of-view.

Mitchell's season so far reminds me of OJ Mayo because he too had the green light to score and was a streaky shooter (though he wasn't as "chucker-y", if you will) who many called a star in his first season because of flashy numbers.

They were also both athletic 6-3 SG/PG types that scored in similar ways. Look at their percentages, reb/assists, A/TO, shot selection, low FTA, and etc. They are remarkably similar.

That's why I'm simply saying let's pump the brakes here when saying he's a transcendent player or anything like that.

I just need to see more. I'm sorry if that upsets UTA fans, but it is what it is. It's definitely impressive what he's doing so far.

Just not on the level of Simmons right now.

LOL@ OJ being in the REALM of Mitchell athletically.

OJ did it on a 24 win team. Mitchell is the primary scorer on what is now a playoff team. We've never seen a rookie G avg 20ppg on a playoff team and not win ROY.

I don't care if people think Simmons is RoY. I think he probably is. I just think its his supporters are electing to minimize Mitchell's performance rather than use Simmons' stellar season to bolster his claims. And that's a shame.

I think I now see why people are hating on Mitchell/UTA in this thread...

[HurricaneKid]

Just providing my opinion from a third party's point-of-view.

Mitchell's season so far reminds me of OJ Mayo because he too had the green light to score and was a streaky shooter (though he wasn't as "chucker-y", if you will) who many called a star in his first season because of flashy numbers.

They were also both athletic 6-3 SG/PG types that scored in similar ways. Look at their percentages, reb/assists, A/TO, shot selection, low FTA, and etc. They are remarkably similar.

That's why I'm simply saying let's pump the brakes here when saying he's a transcendent player or anything like that.

I just need to see more. I'm sorry if that upsets UTA fans, but it is what it is. It's definitely impressive what he's doing so far.

Just not on the level of Simmons right now.

LOL@ OJ being in the REALM of Mitchell athletically.

OJ did it on a 24 win team. Mitchell is the primary scorer on what is now a playoff team. We've never seen a rookie G avg 20ppg on a playoff team and not win ROY.

I don't care if people think Simmons is RoY. I think he probably is. I just think its his supporters are electing to minimize Mitchell's performance rather than use Simmons' stellar season to bolster his claims. And that's a shame.

I think I now see why people are hating on Mitchell/UTA in this thread...

I have no attachment to Mitchell, to Utah, to anyone being discussed in this thread. If you think I am out of line for pointing out that Mitchell is having a GREAT rookie season and why it is so special in a RoY thread, please let me know why.

[Stoked]

No, that is the point. Delusion does not mean anything. Facts do in the end.

I agree. Like the fact that most people have this as a close race. Do you care to refute that by showing that most people do not?

I have no idea if it is a close race. The poll attached to this thread is not what I would call "scientific".

What I DO know is by the overwhelming majority of statistical analysis - both the top-10 "counting" stats listed above, as well as key advanced stats like WS, VORP and BPM, Simmons is SMOKING Mitchell. Fact.

Do I honestly care if Mitchell wins it? Nope...just like I didn't care that Brogdon beat Saric last year. Saric is smoking Brogdon in year 2 and THAT is what matters.

A simple question for you - an NBA GM poll of the other 28 GM's (no Jazz and Sixers) are asked simply which player they want - Simmons or Mitchell?

Who wins that poll?

I think Simmons wins in a landslide.

So...let Mitchell have the ROY. I don't care. We have SImmons.

Hmm, interesting question. I’ll say Simmons wins that vote but it’s not a landslide.

But that’s not scientific either.

But either way both players are phenomenal and we are witnessing the ascension of two superstars.

[lilswift01]

I fear Mitchell way more than Ben Simmons.

[bebopdeluxe]

How about we take the first two weeks of the season when Mitchell was getting 12 min and rather just look at his stats since he started. He is 21/4/4 on .450 from the field, 36% from 3.

He turns the ball over too much, needs to work on his shot selection, and needs to add a little variance in speed (once he is by someone he needs to put them on his hip and slow down rather than staying at top speed). But suggesting OJ Mayo is a reasonable comp is just out of line.

Lets just drop the 21 to 20.2. Here are the players in the last 20 years to avg 20.2+ in their rookie seasons:
Duncan
LeBron
Melo
KD
Blake
Embiid

The last G to do it was AI. The last G to do it at 21 is MK. Lets stop pretending what Mitchell is doing is common. Its not. He might not win RoY, but he is going to be a special player.

Just providing my opinion from a third party's point-of-view.

Mitchell's season so far reminds me of OJ Mayo because he too had the green light to score and was a streaky shooter (though he wasn't as "chucker-y", if you will) who many called a star in his first season because of flashy numbers.

They were also both athletic 6-3 SG/PG types that scored in similar ways. Look at their percentages, reb/assists, A/TO, shot selection, low FTA, and etc. They are remarkably similar.

That's why I'm simply saying let's pump the brakes here when saying he's a transcendent player or anything like that.

I just need to see more. I'm sorry if that upsets UTA fans, but it is what it is. It's definitely impressive what he's doing so far.

Just not on the level of Simmons right now.

LOL@ OJ being in the REALM of Mitchell athletically.

OJ did it on a 24 win team. Mitchell is the primary scorer on what is now a playoff team. We've never seen a rookie G avg 20ppg on a playoff team and not win ROY.

I don't care if people think Simmons is RoY. I think he probably is. I just think its his supporters are electing to minimize Mitchell's performance rather than use Simmons' stellar season to bolster his claims. And that's a shame.

To be clear, I am not denigrating Mitchell's season - he's been great. And - as with Brogdon vs Saric last season - I don't give a rat's azz if Simmons wins the award. What I care about, however, is what the player will become in the future...not what hardware the media give them. And just like Saric's improvement is clearly separating him from Brogdon (who has actually regressed by most advanced metrics), I believe that Simmons - because of his unicorn-like skill package - will continue to develop at a more rapid clip than Mitchell, because he can do so much more. I mean really - where can Mitchell go? Let's say he becomes a 25 ppg scorer and an All-Star over the next 3-5 years. Great! However, there are SO many more ways that Simmons can grow...because he impacts the game in ways that Mitchell can only dream of. His defensive metrics - as a player who guards multiple positions out on the floor - are RIDICULOUS for a rookie.

I am going to stop. Good luck to Mitchell - he's a great player. For Jazz fans, I hope he wins the ROY.

[bebopdeluxe]

I agree. Like the fact that most people have this as a close race. Do you care to refute that by showing that most people do not?

I have no idea if it is a close race. The poll attached to this thread is not what I would call "scientific".

What I DO know is by the overwhelming majority of statistical analysis - both the top-10 "counting" stats listed above, as well as key advanced stats like WS, VORP and BPM, Simmons is SMOKING Mitchell. Fact.

Do I honestly care if Mitchell wins it? Nope...just like I didn't care that Brogdon beat Saric last year. Saric is smoking Brogdon in year 2 and THAT is what matters.

A simple question for you - an NBA GM poll of the other 28 GM's (no Jazz and Sixers) are asked simply which player they want - Simmons or Mitchell?

Who wins that poll?

I think Simmons wins in a landslide.

So...let Mitchell have the ROY. I don't care. We have SImmons.

Hmm, interesting question. I’ll say Simmons wins that vote but it’s not a landslide.

But that’s not scientific either.

But either way both players are phenomenal and we are witnessing the ascension of two superstars.

It may not be scientific, but I will take the opinions of 28 guys who get paid to know this stuff over a couple of internet yabos like you and me ANY DAY.

[dautjazz]

I'm not running him down, I love him as a player and wish we could have traded up for him.

Having said that, he isn't better than Ben this year or probably ever. Just another level of talent for Ben that he is just scratching the surface of.

Anyone saying otherwise just isn't being honest.

Sure, let's just ignore the fact that Ben can't shoot the three and shoots free throws like he's Shaq.

Simmons isn't nearly the perfect player some are making him out to be, and Mitchell deserves every bit of recognition he's getting here. The majority of people see this as a close race and it's always funny when a loud minority feel like if they scream loud enough, their opinion will override the opinion of the majority.

Mitchell is showing signs of a chucker (attempting 20 shots in the last 4 games) which is probably why his stats are so inflated as a 1st option on a non-contender. If he went to Boston, or some other team where your forced to be 3rd, 4th options, I dont see him developing this much so he was fortunate to have this environment. He seems to be more Lou Williams than Wade projected.

But I am not really high on Simmons either since he basically redshirted the entire rookie season and pretty much exploited the NBA experience for full year. Whether he can be a superstar or not depends on his jumpshooting and he might never improve as a respectable shooter the opponents leave him open. Still, I have to give Simmons the upper hand since he has time to improve.

Call Donovan a chucker all you want, but his TS% is higher than Simmons, and Donovan barely gets to the line. In fact, Donovan gets fouled A LOT and gets the rookie treatment. Donovan could probably be around 22-23ppg with a close to 60% TS% if he got the calls he deserved. He gets hacked often and will the miss the shot because of that. Simmons hasn't dealt with the assortment of injuries that Donovan has had to, he doesn't need to shoot as much, he has someone better than him offensively on the team. Also Donovan has been shooting well outside the games since his flu and the first handful of games of the season. The only thing is that those games have massively skewed his percentages. Also, he isn't one dimensional, he could definitely playmake if he had to. Last night as PG he had 5asts. Donovan never has been a PG, but he has some great passing skills for a rookie SG, Donovan doesn't rebound like a near 7fter in Simmons, but he rebounds well for a small guard like Mitchell, with 3.9rpg PER36. Mitchell is also a very good defender, just look at the clutch steal last night. Donovan does what he supposed to do as a SG, and with his inefficiences he still scores more efficiently than SImmons, Simmons is a RARE breed at 6'10" with guard like skills, and he naturally does better in those areas than MItchell. For now individually, I'd say Simmons is better, at least statistically, but I don't enough about Simmons to know if he has the heart and leadership of Mitchell. Anyways, I almost wish they could be CO-ROY, because they both deserve it, this is one of the closest races in a LONG time.

[HurricaneKid]

Just providing my opinion from a third party's point-of-view.

Mitchell's season so far reminds me of OJ Mayo because he too had the green light to score and was a streaky shooter (though he wasn't as "chucker-y", if you will) who many called a star in his first season because of flashy numbers.

They were also both athletic 6-3 SG/PG types that scored in similar ways. Look at their percentages, reb/assists, A/TO, shot selection, low FTA, and etc. They are remarkably similar.

That's why I'm simply saying let's pump the brakes here when saying he's a transcendent player or anything like that.

I just need to see more. I'm sorry if that upsets UTA fans, but it is what it is. It's definitely impressive what he's doing so far.

Just not on the level of Simmons right now.

LOL@ OJ being in the REALM of Mitchell athletically.

OJ did it on a 24 win team. Mitchell is the primary scorer on what is now a playoff team. We've never seen a rookie G avg 20ppg on a playoff team and not win ROY.

I don't care if people think Simmons is RoY. I think he probably is. I just think its his supporters are electing to minimize Mitchell's performance rather than use Simmons' stellar season to bolster his claims. And that's a shame.

To be clear, I am not denigrating Mitchell's season - he's been great. And - as with Brogdon vs Saric last season - I don't give a rat's azz if Simmons wins the award. What I care about, however, is what the player will become in the future...not what hardware the media give them. And just like Saric's improvement is clearly separating him from Brogdon (who has actually regressed by most advanced metrics), I believe that Simmons - because of his unicorn-like skill package - will continue to develop at a more rapid clip than Mitchell, because he can do so much more. I mean really - where can Mitchell go? Let's say he becomes a 25 ppg scorer and an All-Star over the next 3-5 years. Great! However, there are SO many more ways that Simmons can grow...because he impacts the game in ways that Mitchell can only dream of. His defensive metrics - as a player who guards multiple positions out on the floor - are RIDICULOUS for a rookie.

I am going to stop. Good luck to Mitchell - he's a great player. For Jazz fans, I hope he wins the ROY.

I think we are in agreement for the most part. I do think Mitchell has more upside that you seem to. His athletic gifts are really incredible and he is just scratching the surface on how to utilize them. He certainly didn't get to play an NBA style at Louisville where he averaged 15.6/gm. So in some ways he is a LOT farther away from his ceiling than Simmons is. And he will NEVER have Simmons playmaking or defensive prowess, despite not being a slouch in either department himself. Outside of the shooting struggles which are really magnified in today's game, Simmons is a really polished player. But teams are going to force him into shots, going under screens at 16 feet come playoff time, maybe even playing him overly aggressively in the backcourt (and if they foul him putting a 56.8% FT shooter on the line is a fine thing). So he has plenty of growth opportunities himself.

[bebopdeluxe]

Sure, let's just ignore the fact that Ben can't shoot the three and shoots free throws like he's Shaq.

Simmons isn't nearly the perfect player some are making him out to be, and Mitchell deserves every bit of recognition he's getting here. The majority of people see this as a close race and it's always funny when a loud minority feel like if they scream loud enough, their opinion will override the opinion of the majority.

Mitchell is showing signs of a chucker (attempting 20 shots in the last 4 games) which is probably why his stats are so inflated as a 1st option on a non-contender. If he went to Boston, or some other team where your forced to be 3rd, 4th options, I dont see him developing this much so he was fortunate to have this environment. He seems to be more Lou Williams than Wade projected.

But I am not really high on Simmons either since he basically redshirted the entire rookie season and pretty much exploited the NBA experience for full year. Whether he can be a superstar or not depends on his jumpshooting and he might never improve as a respectable shooter the opponents leave him open. Still, I have to give Simmons the upper hand since he has time to improve.

Call Donovan a chucker all you want, but his TS% is higher than Simmons, and Donovan barely gets to the line. In fact, Donovan gets fouled A LOT and gets the rookie treatment. Donovan could probably be around 22-23ppg with a close to 60% TS% if he got the calls he deserved. He gets hacked often and will the miss the shot because of that. Simmons hasn't dealt with the assortment of injuries that Donovan has had to, he doesn't need to shoot as much, he has someone better than him offensively on the team. Also Donovan has been shooting well outside the games since his flu and the first handful of games of the season. The only thing is that those games have massively skewed his percentages. Also, he isn't one dimensional, he could definitely playmake if he had to. Last night as PG he had 5asts. Donovan never has been a PG, but he has some great passing skills for a rookie SG, Donovan doesn't rebound like a near 7fter in Simmons, but he rebounds well for a small guard like Mitchell, with 3.9rpg PER36. Mitchell is also a very good defender, just look at the clutch steal last night. Donovan does what he supposed to do as a SG, and with his inefficiences he still scores more efficiently than SImmons, Simmons is a RARE breed at 6'10" with guard like skills, and he naturally does better in those areas than MItchell. For now individually, I'd say Simmons is better, at least statistically, but I don't enough about Simmons to know if he has the heart and leadership of Mitchell. Anyways, I almost wish they could be CO-ROY, because they both deserve it, this is one of the closest races in a LONG time.

Ummm...about Mitchell's defense...

DBPM:

Mitchell: -0.6
Simmons: 3.4 (!?!)

Glad to hear that Mitchell had a CLUTCH steal. Bottom line is stats don't lie.

WS...VORP...BPM...

Simmons SMOKES Mitchell.

Again - give Mitchell the ROY. I don't care. I still have Simmons.

[AGE1207]

So there's really no problem. People that don't care want Mitchell to get the award and people that do care also want Mitchell to get it.

[HurricaneKid]

FTR, Mitchell is currently only ~3:1 to win the award. Simmons is 1:2 and still definitively the favorite. But 3:1 is hardly a runaway any longer.

[theo42]

FTR, if both keep going the way they are, I would expect a Co-ROY. Short an injury or massive falloff for one of them, this is how it should play out. Not that I care that much, I see Embiid and Saric getting screwed last year has done nothing for how good of players they are haha

[HurricaneKid]

FTR, if both keep going the way they are, I would expect a Co-ROY. Short an injury or massive falloff for one of them, this is how it should play out. Not that I care that much, I see Embiid and Saric getting screwed last year has done nothing for how good of players they are haha

Its virtually impossible to tie. There are 100 voters and the tie would likely have to be ~398-398.

RoY is hardly a big deal. I mean MCW, Wiggins, and Brogdon have won three of the last 4 awards. Both these guys, as well as Tatum and Markky Markk are going to be really good players for a really long time.

[clyde21]

Sorry, but this has to be Mitchell at this point.

Simmons isn't even a rookie.

[sixerhp3]

Sorry, but this has to be Mitchell at this point.

Simmons isn't even a rookie.

very original take sir. Rules are rules and Blake Griffin won ROY so Simmons shouldn't be penalized. Get over it.

[clyde21]

Sorry, but this has to be Mitchell at this point.

Simmons isn't even a rookie.

very original take sir. Rules are rules and Blake Griffin won ROY so Simmons shouldn't be penalized. Get over it.

Not my own rules. Mitchell is more impressive to me as he's a true rookie. Not a redshirt. He gets my vote.

[Catchall]

The thing that's building Mitchell's lore here is that he's carrying a huge load for the Jazz, more than any other rookie. Last night against the Spurs, Rubio was out and Mitchell had to play the 1. The Spurs were game planning against Mitchell all night (since the Jazz had beat the Spurs in their last meeting). Mitchell scored 8 of the Jazz's 9 points in the final 3 minutes and the Jazz pulled out an improbable win after being down double digits in the 4th quarter. He made several big plays under pressure and changed the outcome of the game. He has to do more than any other rookie in order for the Jazz to be successful, and he's doing it.

If Simmons were on the Jazz and had to do what Donovan does every night, could he do it?

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