The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[Cappy_Smurf]

This thread isn't even rookie discussion anymore, it's just Simmons vs Mitchell with each base saying the other doesn't deserve it.

Other than a few people saying Ben isn't really a rookie, I haven't seen anybody saying he doesn't deserve it. The majority of debate here is Simmons fans saying he is a locke and Mitchell fans saying it's a close race.

[Blightor]

Could weigh their scoring efficiencies (particularly how his three point shooting affects it overall) by just citing their true shooting percentages.

Simmons 54.2 TS%. Mitchell 54.5 TS%

Advanced stats don't help Donovan. I think he leads in two, the scoring ones.

[Soul Patch]

The crux of the argument is this. A lot of the posters here think the race is a toss-up and they take it really personally when people like me say that Ben Simmons is the overwhelming favorite. But if you look at the CURRENT betting odds for the rookie of the year, this is the most popular bet.

Simmons: 2 to 5
Mitchell: 16 to 5

For those of you who know anything about betting, this indicates that Simmons is the overwhelming favorite to win the rookie of the year according to the bettors. This is much more objective than any of the aggregated opinions that you will find on this board. Yet, people are denying the obvious and that is source of the argument here.

Do you know the odds for co-roty? That's what I'd gamble on.

[Cappy_Smurf]

The crux of the argument is this. A lot of the posters here think the race is a toss-up and they take it really personally when people like me say that Ben Simmons is the overwhelming favorite. But if you look at the CURRENT betting odds for the rookie of the year, this is the most popular bet.

Simmons: 2 to 5
Mitchell: 16 to 5

For those of you who know anything about betting, this indicates that Simmons is the overwhelming favorite to win the rookie of the year according to the bettors. This is much more objective than any of the aggregated opinions that you will find on this board. Yet, people are denying the obvious and that is source of the argument here.

Do you know the odds for co-roty? That's what I'd gamble on.

Looks to me like some people gonna make bank by betting on Mitchell.

[AGE1207]

So there's really no problem. People that don't care want Mitchell to get the award and people that do care also want Mitchell to get it.

People like to hype up the underdog. Simmons' smug attitude and the national exposure of the sixers have probably biased many fans opinions towards Mitchell. Stats don't lie man (and Ben is ahead in almost every statistical category) and any GM who would take Mitchell over Simmons should be fired. Not trying to say that Mitchell isn't amazing, but Simmons is one of the most unique prospects in NBA history. Is there any objectivity in this award anymore?

Ah, that's an excellent question. It's not a computer deciding based on various statistics, is it? It's people and people are subjective by nature.

Subjectively, I may feel the 76' Tanking Culture shouldn't be rewarded and have more admiration for the Jazz. I may have more sympathy for the 13th pick in the 2017 draft than the nr 1 pick in the 2016 draft.
Would that be fair on Simmons? Absolutely not...Objectively, Simmons should probably get it and he has most of the statistics on his side, no doubt about it. Most statistics btw, not all of them and 3pt scoring ability tends to be important these days.

Does that mean this race is over or there's no race to start with? That part no one can convince me off.

[TTP]

If Simmons were on the Jazz and had to do what Donovan does every night, could he do it?

Don't want to get too much into the debate but just want to say that this form of argument always sucks whenever I see it.

Maybe Simmons couldn't replace Mitchell as a high usage scorer if he were on the Jazz. However, I also don't see Mitchell being the elite multi-position defender, rebounder, and distributor that Simmons is.

Their roles are different and they manage to create value in different ways.

[TTP]

Honestly, it's still frustrating that we (and pretty much any other team) could have had Mitchell too. He looked like such a great prospect on paper and it didn't take much to get that pick from the Nuggets. I thought he'd be a solid 3 and D player at minimum with scoring and playmaking upside. He would have been a great fit next to Simmons. I look forward to his continued development.

[CoreyGallagher]

Culminated most defensive metrics and statistics that I could think of for something else, but wanted to post it to demonstrate how impressive Simmons has been as a defender this season. If he wasn't a rookie then I think he'd be in consideration for an All-Defensive team, or should be at least.

4th among Guards in DRPM in noticeably the biggest role
12th in DBPM, 1st among Guards
t-2nd in DWS
20th in steal%, t-7th in steals per game
Blocks decent amount of shots as well, t-41st per game
10th in deflections per game
t-3rd in loose balls recovered per game

For those wondering the three Guards ahead of him in DRPM are Andre Roberson, in 26.6 mpg and injured, Dejounte Murray in 19.4 mpg, and Tyus Jones in 18.2 mpg.

[HurricaneKid]

So there's really no problem. People that don't care want Mitchell to get the award and people that do care also want Mitchell to get it.

People like to hype up the underdog. Simmons' smug attitude and the national exposure of the sixers have probably biased many fans opinions towards Mitchell. Stats don't lie man (and Ben is ahead in almost every statistical category) and any GM who would take Mitchell over Simmons should be fired. Not trying to say that Mitchell isn't amazing, but Simmons is one of the most unique prospects in NBA history. Is there any objectivity in this award anymore?

What does that have to do with anything? Do you think there are a lot of GMs out there that would take Brogdon over Embiid?

[jazzfan1971]

Culminated most defensive metrics and statistics that I could think of for something else, but wanted to post it to demonstrate how impressive Simmons has been as a defender this season. If he wasn't a rookie then I think he'd be in consideration for an All-Defensive team, or should be at least.

4th among Guards in DRPM in noticeably the biggest role
12th in DBPM, 1st among Guards
t-2nd in DWS
20th in steal%, t-7th in steals per game
Blocks decent amount of shots as well, t-41st per game
10th in deflections per game
t-3rd in loose balls recovered per game

For those wondering the three Guards ahead of him in DRPM are Andre Roberson, in 26.6 mpg and injured, Dejounte Murray in 19.4 mpg, and Tyus Jones in 18.2 mpg.

This is why I favor Simmons. I won't be terribly shocked if Mitchell wins, voters often just reward PPG over all else. But to play that kind of defense even as a red shirt is pretty damn impressive. I think it is pretty close over all and the next couple months will hopefully separate them out a bit.

I love both guys. Loved Simmons the first time I saw him in summer league. Such a rare talent. And the Jazz getting a primary scorer is HUGE. Many years of highlight film to enjoy from both guys IMHO.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

1. He draws fouls at an incredible rate(averaging 6 attempts per game this month). Not even DJ or Drummond who get fouled on purpose got to the line as much as him their rookie seasons.

2. He's a great passer, he's averaging 2.5 assists this month with 0.8 turnovers. He's ranked 16th among centers in assists per game and he doesn't even play more than 21 minutes a game. He also rarely has a bad pass(8 bad passes this entire season compared to Cousins' 84 his rookie season).

3. He's an elite defender already. He can guard 1-5 and doesn't make rookie mistakes on the defensive end(3.7 fouls per 36, Embiid 5.1 rookie season, 3.9 this season).

4. He has range. Hasn't shown it much this season(he's a rookie) but he's better than most young players at shooting beyond 3 feet from the hoop. The fact that he's shooting 73.8% on freethrows (11th best among centers) shows that there's a high probability that'll he develop a consistent 3-point shot. Enes Kanter is the only center who shoots better than him on freethrows, that doesn't shoot 3s(he's #1).

5. He's a lottery pick, big man from UK. Lottery pick, big man from Kentucky tend to be good to great players(Cousins, Davis, Randle, KAT, Willie from the Kings, Kanter, Noel.

[clyde21]

He's gonna be a good one. Was one of my favorites coming out. Had him in the top 10.

[RIPskaterdude]

Grats to kings for having 3 players in rising stars game

[clyde21]

Honestly, it's still frustrating that we (and pretty much any other team) could have had Mitchell too. He looked like such a great prospect on paper and it didn't take much to get that pick from the Nuggets. I thought he'd be a solid 3 and D player at minimum with scoring and playmaking upside. He would have been a great fit next to Simmons. I look forward to his continued development.

Don't be so greedy.

[JunkYardDog6ix]

Number 5 really seals it for me. Kanter especially gained a lot of experience at Kentucky

[loveandbeer]

Loved the pick, thought he would be a useful player in today’s NBA at the very least.

Seems he’s further along thab many expected.

[dc]

I'm impressed by his footwork, shooting touch and ability to stay in front of people on defense.

The only knock on him is that he's undersized as a full time C, but that matters less in the modern game. Definitely a good pick by the Heat.

[The_Hater]

Definitely going to be a very good player even if you’re overrating where he’s at right now. Seems to have most of the skill set you’d want in a modern Center with a base to improve those skills that need work.

[PhilBlackson]

Star?! Hmm depends what you mean or better yet what level?!?

Do I think he can make a name for himself as a very good modern C which will be a quicker, athletic C that has the lateral quickness to defend some perimeter as well as rebound?! Absolutely and he has a good base with some ballhandling and ok touch in the mid range that can be improved on that he can with time be considered one of the better young bigmen.

But star?!

Hmm with guys like Embiid, KAT, AD etc nevermind Ayton, Bagley etc coming in I don't think he comes close to measuring up to them and they're considered stars (or potential ones). He'll need to make substantial improvement in his shooting range and playmaking ability to really be considered a star player but he certainly has nice potential.

[rate_]

1. He draws fouls at an incredible rate(averaging 6 attempts per game this month). Not even DJ or Drummond who get fouled on purpose got to the line as much as him their rookie seasons.

2. He's a great passer, he's averaging 2.5 assists this month with 0.8 turnovers. He's ranked 16th among centers in assists per game and he doesn't even play more than 21 minutes a game. He also rarely has a bad pass(8 bad passes this entire season compared to Cousins' 84 his rookie season).

3. He's an elite defender already. He can guard 1-5 and doesn't make rookie mistakes on the defensive end(3.7 fouls per 36, Embiid 5.1 rookie season, 3.9 this season).

4. He has range. Hasn't shown it much this season(he's a rookie) but he's better than most young players at shooting beyond 3 feet from the hoop. The fact that he's shooting 73.8% on freethrows (11th best among centers) shows that there's a high probability that'll he develop a consistent 3-point shot. Enes Kanter is the only center who shoots better than him on freethrows, that doesn't shoot 3s(he's #1).

5. He's a lottery pick, big man from UK. Lottery pick, big man from Kentucky tend to be good to great players(Cousins, Davis, Randle, KAT, Willie from the Kings, Kanter, Noel.

Among qualified rookies (MP/G requirement) Bam Adebayo:

1st in WS/48
1st in FTr
3rd in TS%
3rd in BPM
4th in Win Shares
4th in PER
5th in VORP