Carmelo Anthony's role needs to be adjusted for this team to move forward (defensively) without Roberson

[Pillendreher]

Since Donovan ran the George+bench lineup the first time vs Denver on 11/09, Melo's minutes have been restricted to playing with only a handful of guys:

w/ Westbrook: 1265/1308 => 97 %
w/ Adams: 1027/1308 => 79 %
w/ George: 1019/1308 => 78 %
w/ Russ-Adams: 1011/1308 => 77 %
w/ Russ-George-Adams: 807/1308 => 62 %

He's basically been tied to Russ for every single minute he spent on the court; he's been on the floor without him for only one minute per game on average.
The same goes (to some lesser extent) for Adams.

On the season, this is how we've looked with Russ-Anthony-Adams on the floor:





As you can see, Roberson and George were big parts of multiple of those lineups. You can basically classify them as follows:

Spoiler:

Melo at the 4:

-Roberson 2, George 3
-Ferguson 2, George 3
-Abrines 2, George 3
-Abrines 2, Roberson 3
-George 2, Huestis 3
-Felton 2, George 3
-Roberson 2, Huestis 3

Melo at the 3:

-George 2, Grant 4

Out of these lineups, the following (I'm using stats.nba.com for this) rank above average defensively:

Russ-Roberson-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Roberson-Huestis-Anthony-Adams

And these are the lineups that rank above average offensively:

Russ-Huestis-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Ferguson-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-George-Anthony-Grant-Adams
Russ-Roberson-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Abrines-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Felton-George-Anthony-Adams

Combining both offense and defense, the following lineups have outperformed the opponent when on the floor:

Russ-Roberson-George-Anthony-Adams: 110.1|95.9|+14.2 (539 minutes)
Russ-George-Huestis-Anthony-Adams: 117.5|109.1|+8.5 (71 minutes)
Russ-Felton-George-Anthony-Adams: 106.6|106.2|+0.4 (46 minutes)

And here's to filter for Roberson with Russ-Anthony Adams:

Roberson ON: 108.6|97.0|+11.5 (543 minutes)
Roberson OFF: 111.8|114.1|-2.3 (468 minutes)

Obviously, this is not working without Roberson out there. The defense just goes to complete ****. Now of course the difference on the defensive end between Roberson and the other guys we've played in these lineups is not more than 15 points per 100 possessions, but it is reasonable to assume that we won't be able to find that kind of defensive player at the trade deadline and would still probably look at at least 105 DRtG or worse with a Roberson replacement. Now you can go and see 'Well, if we crack 110 ORtG, we'd still be fine', but I would argue that that assumption is a dangerous one: Our offense is very dependent on Russ and especially on Russ, Melo and George making mid-rangers while Adams grabs their bricks. That is quite a volatile approach. When you enter the postseason, you want to be able to compete at the highest level on both ends of the floor.

So what to do about this? Roberson ain't walking through that door this season. He's not gonna be able to save our defense. Russ ain't going anywhere. So do both George and Adams. Unless Presti is able to fleece another GM for a Robes equivalent on the defensive end, the one piece we have left is Melo.
Anthony's defense leaves a lot to be desired. At this point of his career, I'm not really blaming him for that with his regressed athleticism, but it is true nonetheless. Covering for Russ is one thing. We've been able to do that for years. But also covering for Melo while adding a Roberson replacement is close to impossible, I fear.

I'm not advocating for Anthony to get benched. But we have to adjust our rotations. We have to play way more Patterson with the starters: Roberson-Adams has a 96.7 DRtG and Patterson-Adams 96.9. Of course the sample size is quite small because Patterson keeps getting benched by the half-wit, but it is still quite obvious that Patterson-Adams works really well when they get the opportunity to play together.
To survice this defensively, Patterson-Adams needs to get at least 15 minutes a night. This means less minutes for Melo with the starters (unless he plays the 3), but it also gives him the opportunity to have another shot creator out there with the bench.

[slick_watts]

it's a problem that has no solution unless 1 ) andre roberson can be replaced with a competent defensive wing or 2 ) carmelo anthony's role is adjusted to align more with enes kanter's last year and he's restricted from match-ups that take advantage of him at pf.

i don't think starting grant and shifting everyone 'down' is a tenable change. it won't solve the defensive problems.

carmelo anthony is the third option on the court with the big three, and oftentimes could be considered the fourth depending on how steven adams is playing. he's just superfluous against certain teams. last night against the wizards, they were playing big with gortat and morris in the front court. what was carmelo anthony providing the team that patrick patterson couldn't on offense? and obviously, patterson closes the gap substantially on defense. we've had a lot of games like this where anthony probably belonged on the bench.

i view anthony almost how i view kevin martin when we had him. a great weapon to have, but there were plenty of times that season where brooks chose to play thabo over martin and rightfully so. that's the role anthony should have.

it's going to be a mess unless we make that sort of change or somehow sam presti can pull a rabbit out of his hat at the deadline.

[Pillendreher]

carmelo anthony is the third option on the court with the big three, and oftentimes could be considered the fourth depending on how steven adams is playing. he's just superfluous against certain teams. last night against the wizards, they were playing big with gortat and morris in the front court. what was carmelo anthony providing the team that patrick patterson couldn't on offense? and obviously, patterson closes the gap substantially on defense. we've had a lot of games like this where anthony probably belonged on the bench.

i view anthony almost how i view kevin martin when we had him. a great weapon to have, but there were plenty of times that season where brooks chose to play thabo over martin and rightfully so. that's the role anthony should have.

it's going to be a mess unless we make that sort of change or somehow sam presti can pull a rabbit out of his hat at the deadline.

I wonder if internally people think that's just too much to ask of him. I bet they thought of it this way when they got him, but given all this public praise for him and talk about him, I think they had to do some real convincing. Maybe they think that asking him to take an even lesser role is too much? On the other hand tho, he should be willing to do what's best for the team. We won't survive defensively if this use of him continues.

[ThunderBolt]

I agree with what was posted but until moves are made, it’s basically like rearranging the chairs on the titanic. We’ve got no bench and a massive whole in our starting lineup. We could make some improvements but eventually Grant, josh useless and Abrines will play and it all falls apart.

[oken]

I agree with what was posted but until moves are made, it’s basically like rearranging the chairs on the titanic. We’ve got no bench and a massive whole in our starting lineup. We could make some improvements but eventually Grant, josh useless and Abrines will play and it all falls apart.

Thanks for improving the lexicon of non-native English speakers like me

[oken]

We could make some improvements but eventually Grant, josh useless and Abrines will play and it all falls apart.

We should make a Buy 3 get 1 free package of:
Jerami Can't
Josh Sure Miss
Alex Regress
Kyle SpineTingler

[dakomish23]

Would seem to make sense. Just not sure if Billy would change anything after seeing the ceiling of this team with Melo and the other starters.

More likely they try to add some better wing perimeter defenders.

You could always just play him the first few minutes and go with Melo and an improved bench. Or you could also have more rotations where hey stagger 2 starters at a time to not let the bench minutes go to complete garbage.

[bbconair]

i've been tracking carmelo. i don't think advanced stats are the end all be all, but he's top 10...in worst players in the nba lol. it's pretty hilarious.

he's actually negative win share - that's amazing.

[bbms]

carmelo anthony is the third option on the court with the big three, and oftentimes could be considered the fourth depending on how steven adams is playing. he's just superfluous against certain teams. last night against the wizards, they were playing big with gortat and morris in the front court. what was carmelo anthony providing the team that patrick patterson couldn't on offense? and obviously, patterson closes the gap substantially on defense. we've had a lot of games like this where anthony probably belonged on the bench.

i view anthony almost how i view kevin martin when we had him. a great weapon to have, but there were plenty of times that season where brooks chose to play thabo over martin and rightfully so. that's the role anthony should have.

it's going to be a mess unless we make that sort of change or somehow sam presti can pull a rabbit out of his hat at the deadline.

I wonder if internally people think that's just too much to ask of him. I bet they thought of it this way when they got him, but given all this public praise for him and talk about him, I think they had to do some real convincing. Maybe they think that asking him to take an even lesser role is too much? On the other hand tho, he should be willing to do what's best for the team. We won't survive defensively if this use of him continues.

What he’d do? Stop competing? Sabotage us from the inside? Is he that kind of loser?

Come on, this is by design. This is by preferrence.

[Pillendreher]

I am still all for this. Not just defensively, even though that also clearly needs to happen 9 games since Robes went down):



But also offensively. It is insane how much we adjust our whole game to Anthony out there. For all this talk about how his role has changed, we still just dump the ball into him and get out of the way. We still act like he should initiate the offense. We still ask George to play with the bench instead of Melo even though the whole thing has never worked:

Russ ON, George ON, Melo ON: 111.1 ORtG | 105.3 DRtG | +5.8 NetRtG (1334 minutes)
Russ ON, George ON, Melo OFF: 109.5 ORtG | 95.5 DRtG | +14.0 NetRtG (270 minutes)
Russ ON, George OFF, Melo ON: 105.5 ORtG | 108.9 DRtG | -3.4 NetRtG (293 minutes)
Russ OFF, George ON, Melo ON: 91.5 ORtG | 98.2 DRtG | -6.7 NetRtG (44 minutes)

Russ ON, George OFF, Melo OFF: 108.7 ORtG | 98.6 DRtG | +10.1 NetRtG (127 minutes)
Russ OFF, George OFF, Melo ON: 103.5 ORtG | 90.5 DRtG | +13.0 NetRtG (104 minutes)
Russ OFF, George ON, Melo OFF: 95.4 ORtG | 110.8 DRtG | -15.4 NetRtG (358 minutes)

Russ ON, George ON: 110.8 ORtG | 103.6 DRtG | +7.3 NetRtG (1604 minutes)
Russ ON, Melo ON: 110.1 ORtG | 106.0 DRtG | +4.1 NetRtG (1627 minutes)
Russ ON, George ON, Adams ON, Melo OFF: 106.5 ORtG | 91.5 DRtG | +15.0 NetRtG (148 minutes)

Russ+George without Melo would be our 2nd best 2-man-lineup with at least 250 mp behind George+Roberson (+14.2 NetRtG). Russ+George+Adams without Amda would be our best 3-man-lineup with at least 140 mp.

If there's one of these combinations we need to keep going, it's Russ-George. Yet Donovan insists of building everything around Carmelo. Last night, George spent 8 minutes on the bench while James was on the floor. In those 8 minutes, we were a -6. Meanwhile Anthony didn't play a single minute when James was on the bench.
The whole rotation is out of whack. Anthony is playing too many minutes next to Russ and Adams which means way too few minutes for Patterson next to them. This also pushes George to the bench which means less minutes for George next to Russ and Adams.

This **** needs to stop. But I fear it won't.

[slick_watts]

everyone knows melo is a problem on defense without andre roberson around.

[Old Man Game]

Yep. Was just coming her to rant about Melo. He doesn't make sense in that starting lineup without another elite defender to help cover for him.

[Pillendreher]

Yep. Was just coming her to rant about Melo. He doesn't make sense in that starting lineup without another elite defender to help cover for him.

The way we're using him is probably the worst way possible. His role with the starters should be like Ryan Anderson's with the Rockets, yet he's playing like he normally does while providing very little defensively. And the one guy who's really thriving next to Russ gets forced to play with the bench even though that should be Melo's job.

[NOOB77]

Russ OFF, George OFF, Melo ON: 103.5 ORtG | 90.5 DRtG | +13.0 NetRtG (104 minutes)
Russ OFF, George ON, Melo OFF: 95.4 ORtG | 110.8 DRtG | -15.4 NetRtG (358 minutes)

This still confuses me. No clue why Billy went away from Melo with bench. Makes no sense.

[Kizz Fastfists]

This still confuses me. No clue why Billy went away from Melo with bench. Makes no sense.

It worked and Billy's brain couldn't handle it so he had to find something that didn't work. It's like being OCD only you seek chaos and insanity instead of organization and order. If you find a rotation that works you must break it.

[Pillendreher]

Adams-Melo without Dre: 114 DRtG in over 600 minutes
Adams without Dre and Melo: 102 DRtG in over 280 minutes
Adams-Patterson without Dre and Melo: 100 DRtG in 136 minutes

Donovan's riding Melo even more with the starters since Robes went down. That has to stop. Roberson is not coming back this season. Anthony next to Adams is not playable without him.

[Pillendreher]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2759749-okc-thunder-need-more-from-carmelo-anthony-to-enter-championship-conversation

If things don't turn around, the Thunder may have to consider scaling back Anthony's reduced role even more. Despite the feel-good memory Melo left fans with against Memphis, the team heads into the All-Star break with an underwhelming 33-26 record, one-and-a-half games out of the ninth seed. They're also 4-6 in the 10 games since losing defensive star Andre Roberson (ruptured patellar tendon) for the season.

The Thunder offense overall has been fine during Anthony's slump, but the defense has suffered. It has surrendered nearly 109 points per 100 possessions in the last 10 games compared to a defensive rating of 104 for the season.

While teams have feasted on raw rookie Terrance Ferguson in Roberson's absence, Anthony is the bigger culprit. Over that same 10-game stretch, the Thunder have a defensive rating of 115.1 when Melo is on the floor and 116.6 when Ferguson plays. The problem here is that Ferguson is averaging just 9.6 minutes per contest in February, while Anthony (excluding his six-minute showing against the Warriors thanks to a sprained ankle) is playing 34 minutes a night.

Before Roberson's season-ending injury, the Thunder defense with Anthony on the floor was acceptable, clocking in at 103.8 points per 100 possessions. It's a concerning trend for a team that needs to begin building momentum toward the postseason; however, the list of available fixes is dwindling.

[...]

Even if the Thunder can scrounge up a serviceable veteran to help their defense, that still leaves the question of how to handle Melo, the future Hall of Famer and four-time Olympian.

To his credit, Anthony has willingly adjusted over the course of the season. The pace-halting, one-on-one isolations that were a staple early in the season have decreased. He's become less of a shot-creator and more of a facilitator, and he's an upbeat locker room presence.

And he can still occasionally hit a big shot. His reputation keeps opponents honest.

As Presti and coach Billy Donovan continue to search for solutions, some of the fix may already be in-house. Donovan has tried lineups with Paul George and Jerami Grant on the wings in the hopes of somewhat replicating Roberson's role. Grant is on a tear lately, averaging 12 points and 6.9 rebounds in February.

Patrick Patterson made key contributions against the Warriors and Grizzlies recently. He's a much more versatile defender than Melo and can also space the floor when he's involved in the offense, though his inconsistency has limited his minutes.

More ideally, Anthony gets back on track. When he's locked in and playing well, he adds another dimension for the Thunder as a catch-and-shoot threat. Melo's presence helps open up room for Westbrook, George and Steven Adams to operate, but opponents will be encouraged to cheat off him if he continues misfiring.

He's played occasionally capable defense this season—against Blake Griffin, for instance—but lately has been worked over by the likes of Julius Randle and Grizzlies journeymen. Without Roberson, the Thunder can't afford another weak link defensively, and Donovan may not have options to hide Anthony.

Anthony can be the player to move Oklahoma City into—or at least closer to—the top tier in the Western Conference. But if this recent trend continues, Donovan will have to consider curtailing Anthony's minutes and easing him out of clutch-situation lineups.

Hamm is stealing my takes.

[dakomish23]

It’s all about the ceiling. They even mention it in the article.

[Pillendreher]

I always thought the 'Melo has changed' thing was overblown and the #'s point towards me being right.

2012-2014:

Layups, Hook Shots, Dunks, Tip Shots: 741/3132 - 24 % Freq
2pt Jumpers: 1562/3132 - 50 % Freq
3pt Jumpers: 829/26 % Freq

2017/2018:

Layups, Hook Shots, Dunks, Tip Shots: 115/873 - 13 % Freq
2pt Jumpers: 425/873 - 49 % Freq
3pt Jumpers: 333/873 - 38 % Freq

He can't be on the floor this much if he can't shoot at least 40 % from 3 with this kind of shot selection. If he did that, he'd be at 58 TS% right now, even with this bad shot selection.

EDIT:

Sorry, my maths was wrong. With 40 % from 3, he'd be at 53.5 TS% now. For 55.0 TS%, he'd have to shoot ~ 43 % from 3. To match Ryan Andersons' 59.6 TS% this season, he'd have to shoot ~51 % from 3 this season.