Zach LaVine Rookie Extension - what to do?

[Indomitable]

I agree that there is no way we are going to sign Lavine for 4/60, but what Turner got is irrelevant now. This summer, role players are going to be receiving a lot less than they have in the past two seasons or so when there was a significant rise in the cap.

Not saying Zach is a role player, but yeah.

Agents probably aren't thinking that way, though. Their job is to establish a comparable floor and ceiling of recent contracts. The fact that players like Turner and Deng are a year removed from getting $72 million over four years will help his case.

Bad contracts (especially ones like that where everyone knew they were terrible the moment the ink dried) don't set markets. Conversely, if Lou Williams is going for 3/24, I struggle to see how Lavine could argue he's worth three times as much per year.

Lou is 32 and Lavine is 22. What is so hard to understand?

[Ccwatercraft]

I wouldn't cry if some other team offers Lavine huge money and the Bulls don't match...

Ugh. Holding out for superman?

I don't think he's out there.

[DroseReturnChi]

Agents probably aren't thinking that way, though. Their job is to establish a comparable floor and ceiling of recent contracts. The fact that players like Turner and Deng are a year removed from getting $72 million over four years will help his case.

Bad contracts (especially ones like that where everyone knew they were terrible the moment the ink dried) don't set markets. Conversely, if Lou Williams is going for 3/24, I struggle to see how Lavine could argue he's worth three times as much per year.

Lou is 32 and Lavine is 22. What is so hard to understand?

So one guy is posting stats of 23/5 and getting paid 7-8 mil/year.
The other guy has never scored above 20 ppg and based from potential alone, will get paid 25-30mil/ year because of one stupid team.
I just dont understand how being younger justifies nearly 20 million of yearly salary difference if they are the same type of players.
And age doesnt even matter that much unless your thinking Lavine is the core guy and keep 10+ years which I absolutely disagree with.
Some low tier team throwing max has nothing to do with Lavine's actual worth which is around 10 mil to this Bulls team based on his performance numbers.

[rtblues]

I wouldn't cry if some other team offers Lavine huge money and the Bulls don't match...

Ugh. Holding out for superman?

I don't think he's out there.

So, there's no middle ground. Just black and white.
Zach or superman. Oh okay.
I'll rephrase my original post and say, I don't like Lavine's game and I hope the the Bulls don't sign or keep him. Not a believer. You are. Cool, we agree to disagree.

[MissileMike]

Now that the deadline has passed, is there anywhere to get accurate cap numbers? I'd like to see who actually has money to offer Zach.

ie:
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2018/

is very different than:
https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/247355/The-Maximum-Available-2018-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams

[Ccwatercraft]

I wouldn't cry if some other team offers Lavine huge money and the Bulls don't match...

Ugh. Holding out for superman?

I don't think he's out there.

So, there's no middle ground. Just black and white.
Zach or superman. Oh okay.
I'll rephrase my original post and say, I don't like Lavine's game and I hope the the Bulls don't sign or keep him. Not a believer. You are. Cool, we agree to disagree.

sure. I happen to like his game more than you obviously, especially considering how badly we need a #1 option. I'm not going to be happy if he just walks, although a S&T wouldn't be terribly upsetting if the return was a quality player but in the meantime he's a bird in hand and a pretty talented bird at that. Sure he has faults, but he young enough that he can overcome those faults and our roster is far from strong enough to lose out on that kind of offensive talent. I'm confident that Fred can make him work very well within the system over time.

My only point if there was one is that if Zach isn't good enough to keep, then how short is the list of those that are?

[MisterRoy]

I agree with the previous question - if we don't give money to Zach, who do we replace him with?

This should be a fun discussion...

[Lauri_Legend]

I'm ok with Lavine being the 1B or the 2nd option on a good team we build. He is not THE GUY to build around. I mean, Bulls had a hard time committing to Jimmy as the 1A guy so they shipped him out of town instead of getting him more help. I don't think the Bulls will treat Lavine like a 1A nor should they..,even if they end up paying him like one based off potential.

[TheSuzerain]

I agree with the previous question - if we don't give money to Zach, who do we replace him with?

This should be a fun discussion...

People need to realize that barring absurd luck, this is not going to be a quick rebuild. We should almost certainly be tanking next season as well. And probably even the season after that.

That is assuming the goal is to actually build a contender which I'm not convinced is the actual goal of management.

[League Circles]

I agree with the previous question - if we don't give money to Zach, who do we replace him with?

This should be a fun discussion...

People need to realize that barring absurd luck, this is not going to be a quick rebuild. We should almost certainly be tanking next season as well. And probably even the season after that.

That is assuming the goal is to actually build a contender which I'm not convinced is the actual goal of management.

No judgement, just curious, do you think a team should tank til they have a key franchise player (most would say we don't right now, some may say Lauri or Lavine are - they'd be wrong IMO), or only until doing so is no longer a reasonable shot at getting such a player? By that I mean like a team that projects to be 10-15 or so, as it is pretty unrealistic to project on a player in that range rver being a franchise guy?

For me it's the latter. Now, I'm not against tanking next year necessarily, as free agency sucks this summer (deciding whether or not to sign guys is really the essence of deciding to tank or not). But for me it would take bad play for the rest of the year (bottom 5ish caliber play), and then you've really got to somehow clear Lavine and Lopez for next year. But if we play like 12ish draft spot ball the rest of the year, I'm def not trying to tank next year.

[TheSuzerain]

I agree with the previous question - if we don't give money to Zach, who do we replace him with?

This should be a fun discussion...

People need to realize that barring absurd luck, this is not going to be a quick rebuild. We should almost certainly be tanking next season as well. And probably even the season after that.

That is assuming the goal is to actually build a contender which I'm not convinced is the actual goal of management.

No judgement, just curious, do you think a team should tank til they have a key franchise player (most would say we don't right now, some may say Lauri or Lavine are - they'd be wrong IMO), or only until doing so is no longer a reasonable shot at getting such a player? By that I mean like a team that projects to be 10-15 or so, as it is pretty unrealistic to project on a player in that range rver being a franchise guy?

For me it's the latter. Now, I'm not against tanking next year necessarily, as free agency sucks this summer (deciding whether or not to sign guys is really the essence of deciding to tank or not). But for me it would take bad play for the rest of the year (bottom 5ish caliber play), and then you've really got to somehow clear Lavine and Lopez for next year. But if we play like 12ish draft spot ball the rest of the year, I'm def not trying to tank next year.

If the goal is to actually build a contender, then yes I think the team should tank until a franchise player is acquired. If a team is finishing in the 10-15 draft slot without a franchise guy, then that signals that it's time to liquidate most of your talent for draft assets.

Realistically, a General Manager is not going to have the stomach for that due to their own job security. It's much easier/safer to just build a middling playoff team.

[kodo]

Lou Williams will be 32 starting his next contract, so he's not going to get the same kind of money or length as a 22 year old. Especially at 6' 0" and unathletic.

Lou also took less because he felt he's better than some guy who just goes from team to team, and to have at least 3 years in once place for himself & his family. He knows he signed for cheap, he had his reasons.

I feel like I'm a quality basketball player and usually quality basketball players don't get moved so much, but I understand," Williams said. "I had a relatively cheap deal.

"But personally, it's like my kids didn't know who to root for anymore. They were confused. They walk around with Rockets shorts and Lakers jerseys. They just didn't know what was going on. So it's just nice to have that one consistent to know you're going to be somewhere for an extended period of time."

It's also LA, we're not ever going to be the city that players sign at a discount for the weather & lifestyle.

[Axolotl]

...build a middling playoff team.

Draft 2 players next summer, neither of them a game changer, but at best both good players. Sign LaVine for whatever is needed. Sign Portis, or trade him, if a good opportunity presents itself. Keep Roloday, maybe Vonleh and Nwaba too. Play the next season, get close to playoffs, maybe even in. Make a meaningless draft pick 2019, and go for FAs. Sign a second tier FA, maybe even two. Mission accomplished.

[kodo]

We have $57M in likely contracts next season...even assuming we keep all the vets in the offseason like Lopez. Get rid of Lopez, we have $43M.

The salary floor is $91M. If we don't spend it, the NBA & PA will spend it for us and just give that money to the rest of the team, so that $34-$48M will go to everyone including Felicio, Payne, Holiday, Grant, etc..

The idea of "I don't want to overpay for Lavine", so instead let's give $34M to this team of scrubs, doesn't make much sense to me.
Felicio doesn't need more money. Grant doesn't need more money. Payne doesn't need more money.

If we're afraid that Lavine will make too much money when he's 25 or 26 (fast decline huh), fine at least give him a 2 year deal. But to dump a functional SG in order to overpay Felicio even more money makes zero sense to me.

[the ultimates]

Which teams with cap space are going to go after Lavine? The vast majority of them are tanking and aren't going to spend huge free agent dollars. The Bulls feel they are a step ahead than most teams rebuilding with Dunn, Lauri, and Lavine along with two first-round picks this season.

The whole tank until you get a franchise player I'll never understand. We've seen Cleveland before Lebron and after Lebron with multiple high picks and not even a playoff appearance. Would Minnesota be going to the playoffs without Jimmy if they were led by Towns and Wiggins two number one overall picks. What about Orlando and Phoenix how long have they been tanking, rebuilding or whatever marketing term you want to call it.

[TheSuzerain]

...build a middling playoff team.

Draft 2 players next summer, neither of them a game changer, but at best both good players. Sign LaVine for whatever is needed. Sign Portis, or trade him, if a good opportunity presents itself. Keep Roloday, maybe Vonleh and Nwaba too. Play the next season, get close to playoffs, maybe even in. Make a meaningless draft pick 2019, and go for FAs. Sign a second tier FA, maybe even two. Mission accomplished.

It's an all too likely scenario.

[the ultimates]

...build a middling playoff team.

Draft 2 players next summer, neither of them a game changer, but at best both good players. Sign LaVine for whatever is needed. Sign Portis, or trade him, if a good opportunity presents itself. Keep Roloday, maybe Vonleh and Nwaba too. Play the next season, get close to playoffs, maybe even in. Make a meaningless draft pick 2019, and go for FAs. Sign a second tier FA, maybe even two. Mission accomplished.

The funny thing is look around at these teams with franchise players and yet their middling playoff teams. Milwaukkee with Giannis, Wall and Beal with Washington. Miami with I guess Whiteside and Dragic. Detroit might sneak in with Blake but are definitely middling. The Pelicans with AD and the unfortunately hurt Cousins. Portland with CJ and Lillard.

[Leslie Forman]

Which teams with cap space are going to go after Lavine? The vast majority of them are tanking and aren't going to spend huge free agent dollars. The Bulls feel they are a step ahead than most teams rebuilding with Dunn, Lauri, and Lavine along with two first-round picks this season.

When LA ends up with nobody but Paul George, I could easily see them bidding.

If Sacramento and Philly have enough cap room, they make plenty of sense as bidders.

[Jahensle]

...build a middling playoff team.

Draft 2 players next summer, neither of them a game changer, but at best both good players. Sign LaVine for whatever is needed. Sign Portis, or trade him, if a good opportunity presents itself. Keep Roloday, maybe Vonleh and Nwaba too. Play the next season, get close to playoffs, maybe even in. Make a meaningless draft pick 2019, and go for FAs. Sign a second tier FA, maybe even two. Mission accomplished.

It's an all too likely scenario.

Our first rounder this year and Lauri will need to develop into perrenial All-Stars for us to have a chance of not being in "NBA hell" imo. Kris Dunn and Zach will both improve, but neither will ever be top 3 at their positions. Perhaps we can build a detroit pistons style squad where we just have a bunch of good players, but no one superstar.

[TheSuzerain]

...build a middling playoff team.

Draft 2 players next summer, neither of them a game changer, but at best both good players. Sign LaVine for whatever is needed. Sign Portis, or trade him, if a good opportunity presents itself. Keep Roloday, maybe Vonleh and Nwaba too. Play the next season, get close to playoffs, maybe even in. Make a meaningless draft pick 2019, and go for FAs. Sign a second tier FA, maybe even two. Mission accomplished.

The funny thing is look around at these teams with franchise players and yet their middling playoff teams. Milwaukkee with Giannis, Wall and Beal with Washington. Miami with I guess Whiteside and Dragic. Detroit might sneak in with Blake but are definitely middling. The Pelicans with AD and the unfortunately hurt Cousins. Portland with CJ and Lillard.

The only bona fide franchise player you listed there is Giannis. He's the only one of those who can win a title as a #1. AD is fringe as he's more of a Robin. No one else you listed is close.

I realize it's an absurdly high standard. But we just jettisoned a guy for not meeting that standard even though he's better than everyone you listed other than Giannis.