The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[loveandbeer]

Tatum has hit the rookie wall a bit and not quite recovered. Hopefully post ASB he can bounce back and take the next step that the Hayward-less C's need him to if they want to advance in the playoffs.

Tatum is still playing really good basketball, but his insane efficiency has come back down to earth and he's stayed firmly in his roleplayer role rather than trying to step in and fill the scoring hole that Boston has. My big question with respect to that is whether or not that is part of a directive from Brad Stevens or just Tatum being a rookie and not asserting himself.

I wouldn't be surprised if it were the former as it would align with how Brad brought Jaylen Brown along. He spent a lot of time waiting in the wings for kickouts and just serving as a cog in the offense. Occasionally he'd have plays run for him (particularly after timeouts/out of bounds), but for the most part he was a secondary option. Tatum has gotten more opportunities than Brown did, and rightfully so given his polished scoring game, but he's similarly been relegated to a secondary option despite Boston's scoring woes.

Feels a bit greedy to watch a guy like Tatum play really good all around basketball and gripe that he isn't stepping up more on a team competing for HCA throughout the playoffs, but he was just SO good to start the season and his skillset fits so well with their needs, it's hard not to.

It's funny just how much Boston is going to have to rely on rookies during the stretch run. It's not just Tatum, but Semi Ojeleye on the wing is getting 15-20 mins in some games and Daniel Theis is a significant part of their (ineffective) big man rotation. Between those 3 they might be getting 60+ minutes out of rookies. I'd love to know the last time that happened for a team fighting for the #1 seed.

Tends to happen most (if not all) rookies as their game gets found out more and more and they are actually gameplanned for. I also think everyone knew his hot shooting would cool down eventually.

Hopefully he can bounce back from this and finish out strong.

Still averaging 13/5 which isn’t bad for a rookie.

[Damkac]

Watch on YouTube

[The_Hater]

As great as Simmons has been this season, has Mitchell now overtaken him?

I’d like to see this poll started over with only choice allowed to see what people think in the present.

[Ugly0598]

As great as Simmons has been this season, has Mitchell now overtaken him?

I’d like to see this poll started over with only choice allowed to see what people think in the present.

No on Mitchell, hasn't been shooting the ball that well lately.

[Stoked]

As great as Simmons has been this season, has Mitchell now overtaken him?

I’d like to see this poll started over with only choice allowed to see what people think in the present.

No on Mitchell, hasn't been shooting the ball that well lately.

Agreed. Mitchell has made it a two man race but Simmons is still in front I think.

[commentatorer]

As great as Simmons has been this season, has Mitchell now overtaken him?

I’d like to see this poll started over with only choice allowed to see what people think in the present.

Simmons is All-NBA Defense (and will make the team officially if its done honestly), so I can't imagine how Mitchell could be ahead of Simmons merely by outscoring him, considering Simmons also has big assists/rebounds numbers and pretty good scoring and shoots 9% better than Mitchell....so literally the only thing Mitchell has over Simmons, is perimeter shooting.

[bebopdeluxe]

Simmons 18/12/10/4

Yeah...but Mitchell is STILL ROY because he scored 24 and POINTZZZ

[Hipster Doofus]

Simmons 18/12/10/4

Yeah...but Mitchell is STILL ROY because he scored 24 and POINTZZZ

On 24 shats.

[bebopdeluxe]

Mitchell set a 2nd all time NBA record tonight.
#2. First rookie to lead his team in scoring during an 11 game win streak. Ever.

I love Mitchell but I hate these type of stats. He's shooting like 37% during the win streak and many of those games someone else led the team in scoring. (Plus some of those games he was playing badly in, and one he missed altogether).

The stat is really just pointing out that a team is rarely good enough to win 11 straight without having a primary scorer--leaving a rare opportunity for a rookie scoring 19ppg to lead the team. That stat is way more about the weirdness of the Jazz than anything historic that Mitchell himself is doing.

The simple fact that Simmons and Mitchell are virtually tied in TS% is because Mitchell routinely throws up these 6-for-21, 10-for-24, 9-for-28 (!?!) type of nights. While he is unquestionably a talented offensive player, he is also - on many nights - a highly-inefficent volume scorer in the John Wall/Allen Iverson vein. As a lifelong Sixers fan, I do respect the value of having a volume scorer...but the fact that Mitchell is FOURTH in both WS and VORP on his team (despite being #1 in USG%) speaks to his relative inefficiency...as opposed to Simmons - who is 1st in both WS and VORP, despite Embiid leading in USG%.

And let's not even talk about the other side of the ball...where Simmons leads the team (with a higher DPBM than Embiid), while Mitchell has a NEGATIVE DPBM...behind even Joe Johnson, for crissakes.

[The_Hater]

As great as Simmons has been this season, has Mitchell now overtaken him?

I’d like to see this poll started over with only choice allowed to see what people think in the present.

Simmons is All-NBA Defense (and will make the team officially if its done honestly), so I can't imagine how Mitchell could be ahead of Simmons merely by outscoring him, considering Simmons also has big assists/rebounds numbers and pretty good scoring and shoots 9% better than Mitchell....so literally the only thing Mitchell has over Simmons, is perimeter shooting.

Mitchell is also a very good defender who regularly guards the opponents top perimeter player. Both of their teams are top 5 in the league. Simmons doesn’t gain many points here IMO.

Mitchell has Simmons beat in offensive efficiency, so I’m not sure what the point was in talking about the FG% gap. Simmons does not shoot better when we look at the proper numbers.

Overall, I think it’s fairly close and I like them both quite a bit.

[CoreyGallagher]

He has a 54.4 TS%, which is still better than Simmons 54.2 TS%. He's in a slump right now, but no reason to criticize him for it.

[bebopdeluxe]

As great as Simmons has been this season, has Mitchell now overtaken him?

I’d like to see this poll started over with only choice allowed to see what people think in the present.

Simmons is All-NBA Defense (and will make the team officially if its done honestly), so I can't imagine how Mitchell could be ahead of Simmons merely by outscoring him, considering Simmons also has big assists/rebounds numbers and pretty good scoring and shoots 9% better than Mitchell....so literally the only thing Mitchell has over Simmons, is perimeter shooting.

Mitchell is also a very good defender who regularly guards the opponents top perimeter player. Both of their teams are top 5 in the league. Simmons doesn’t gain many points here IMO.

Mitchell has Simmons beat in offensive efficiency, so I’m not sure what the point was in talking about the FG% gap. Simmons does not shoot better when we look at the proper numbers.

Overall, I think it’s fairly close and I like them bo5 quite a bit.

What do you base the assertion that "Simmons doesn't gain many points" relative to Mitchell based on defense? Huh?

Advanced stats say that it is a BLOWOUT in favor of Simmons.

DBPM:

Simmons: 3.4
Mitchell: - 0.6 (worse than all but like three of his teammates)

When you have a worse DPBM than Joe Johnson, you are in NO position to tout your defensive bonifides....right?

[bebopdeluxe]

He has a 54.4 TS%, which is still better than Simmons 54.2 TS%. He's in a slump right now, but no reason to criticize him.

His offensive skills - shooting and scoring the ball - are the key narrative as to why people think Mitchell should be ROY. He is a GREAT scorer, relative to Simmons. If the two guys' TS% are essentially a wash - in spite of Simmons' not-ready-for-prime-time perimeter offensive game - then by what metric can Mitchell be in the same universe as Simmons as a legit ROY candidate, given Simmons utter dominance in virtually every advanced statistical metric?

It just doesn't make any sense.

Mitchell is a great player...but this really isn't a contest by any objective measure. I honestly believe if Mitchell wins the ROY over Simmons (assuming no major changes from here), it will be all about 1) Simmons' redshirt year, and 2) "Process" haters.

By what objective criteria could the case be made for Mitchell other than POINTZZZ?

[HotelVitale]

Mitchell has Simmons beat in offensive efficiency, so I’m not sure what the point was in talking about the FG% gap. Simmons does not shoot better when we look at the proper numbers. Overall, I think it’s fairly close and I like them bo5 quite a bit.

Strange reasoning in this post. Mitchell's pretty good at defense and should improve with time, but Simmons is really really good right now. You didn't dispute that but sort of just said, 'Mitchell's not bad either so therefore they're even.'

Mitchell also doesn't beat Simmons in any basic efficiency stats--they're exactly tied in TS% at 54%, and Simmons asst:TO is of course much better than Mitchell's. Simmons also gets three times the amount of orebs. Mitchell's a great offensive talent but he's not doing anything numbers wise at all that's clearly better or more efficient.

Not trying to start an endless back and forth (cuz ROY is stupid anyway), just didn't see the logic here.

[The_Hater]

Simmons is All-NBA Defense (and will make the team officially if its done honestly), so I can't imagine how Mitchell could be ahead of Simmons merely by outscoring him, considering Simmons also has big assists/rebounds numbers and pretty good scoring and shoots 9% better than Mitchell....so literally the only thing Mitchell has over Simmons, is perimeter shooting.

Mitchell is also a very good defender who regularly guards the opponents top perimeter player. Both of their teams are top 5 in the league. Simmons doesn’t gain many points here IMO.

Mitchell has Simmons beat in offensive efficiency, so I’m not sure what the point was in talking about the FG% gap. Simmons does not shoot better when we look at the proper numbers.

Overall, I think it’s fairly close and I like them bo5 quite a bit.

What do you base the assertion that "Simmons doesn't gain many points" relative to Mitchell based on defense? Huh?

Advanced stats say that it is a BLOWOUT in favor of Simmons.

DBPM:

Simmons: 3.4
Mitchell: - 0.6 (worse than all but like three of his teammates)

When you have a worse DPBM than Joe Johnson, you are in NO position to tout your defensive bonifides....right?

The problem I see is that you’re picking one advanced stat, the one that is often skewed by the players you’re asked to guard on the other team. It’s the same reason the like of Klay Thompson and Avery Bradley don’t grade out well in DPBM and Andre Drummond and Kyle Anderson are the top 2 in the league right now. It’s an imperfect stat.

[HotelVitale]

I love Mitchell but I hate these type of stats. He's shooting like 37% during the win streak and many of those games someone else led the team in scoring. (Plus some of those games he was playing badly in, and one he missed altogether).

Mitchell has been the leading scorer in 7 of the 11 games. Not sure I'd consider the 4 games he wasn't "many" but, meh.

Ha, not sure what adjective you'd prefer. If you're talking about a quantity that's less than 50% but still a significant number, we do indeed use the word 'many.' I think 36% of games qualifies as a 'many' situation.

My point was about those '1st person to do ___ on ___days with ___.' Us 76ers Process survivors heard so many of them over the past 5 years, and after a while it's clear they're trying to make accomplishments seem bigger than they are. Tony Wroten was the first guy to average 15/5/5 in 50 games as a starter under age 21 since Lebron, MCW the first to average 2.5 steals over two weeks straight since Magic, etc etc.

You know as well as anyone that Mitchell's a big part of the team but that win streak isn't because of him. Rubio totally carried them in the early part of it, then Jingles was at least as important as Mitchell, Gobert of course is key. The Jazz are an ensemble cast and have given a rare opportunity to Mitchell to step in and be a high-volume meh efficiency player who's still helping them win. That's cool and I think Mitchell's gonna be a legit star but there should be a rule against stats that need more than two points of elaboration.

[bebopdeluxe]

Mitchell is also a very good defender who regularly guards the opponents top perimeter player. Both of their teams are top 5 in the league. Simmons doesn’t gain many points here IMO.

Mitchell has Simmons beat in offensive efficiency, so I’m not sure what the point was in talking about the FG% gap. Simmons does not shoot better when we look at the proper numbers.

Overall, I think it’s fairly close and I like them bo5 quite a bit.

What do you base the assertion that "Simmons doesn't gain many points" relative to Mitchell based on defense? Huh?

Advanced stats say that it is a BLOWOUT in favor of Simmons.

DBPM:

Simmons: 3.4
Mitchell: - 0.6 (worse than all but like three of his teammates)

When you have a worse DPBM than Joe Johnson, you are in NO position to tout your defensive bonifides....right?

The problem I see is that you’re picking one advanced stat, the one that is often skewed by the players you’re asked to guard on the other team. It’s the same reason the like of Klay Thompson and Avery Bradley don’t grade out well in DPBM and Andre Drummond and Kyle Anderson are the top 2 in the league right now. It’s an imperfect stat.

Fair point. In general, it would be expected for rookies to struggle on D, which is why Simmons' D - both statistically as well as via the "eye test" is so surreal. It is also important to note that Simmons has guarded several different positions while he is out there...I have not seen enough of Mitchell to know this, but I wonder if part of his struggles have to do with learning the nuances of switches and P'n'R defense - something that Simmons (who can basically guard every position on the floor) has handled extremely well.

[The_Hater]

What do you base the assertion that "Simmons doesn't gain many points" relative to Mitchell based on defense? Huh?

Advanced stats say that it is a BLOWOUT in favor of Simmons.

DBPM:

Simmons: 3.4
Mitchell: - 0.6 (worse than all but like three of his teammates)

When you have a worse DPBM than Joe Johnson, you are in NO position to tout your defensive bonifides....right?

The problem I see is that you’re picking one advanced stat, the one that is often skewed by the players you’re asked to guard on the other team. It’s the same reason the like of Klay Thompson and Avery Bradley don’t grade out well in DPBM and Andre Drummond and Kyle Anderson are the top 2 in the league right now. It’s an imperfect stat.

Fair point. In general, it would be expected for rookies to struggle on D, which is why Simmons' D - both statistically as well as via the "eye test" is so surreal. It is also important to note that Simmons has guarded several different positions while he is out there...I have not seen enough of Mitchell to know this, but I wonder if part of his struggles have to do with learning the nuances of switches and P'n'R defense - something that Simmons (who can basically guard every position on the floor) has handled extremely well.

I’m not trying to slam Simmons defense, he’s obviously very good. Great instincts. Great size. Great quickness. And these two players likely have the two best defensive Centers in the entire league backing them up. And you’re right that those defensive stats as posted paint Simmons as a star and Mitchell as a negative. I’ve used them myself in debates. But I do think they’re much closer in overall impact than that.

For the record I still see Simmons winning the ROY, perhaps I’m just surprised that somebody has actually made it a closer race? Simmons looked like he was unanimous lock back in mid December.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Simmons looked like he was unanimous lock back in mid December.

Simmons should still be a unanimous lock now. The only reason he isn't is because people are excited to have another top quality rookie to talk about and probably a certain overvaluation of points on their own combined with a few other reasons.

Mitchell is very good. I'm not sure how good, but he sure looks like a future allstar to me with the potential to be somewhere between Klay Thompson and Dwyane Wade. Despite that it still really shouldn't be a debate. Simmons is just simply better. The only thing Mitchell does better is score. He's a brilliant scorer who happens to do a lot of other things pretty damn well, too, but it's kind of like comparing, say, Kyrie Irving to Chris Paul. Both are absolutely fantastic players, but the only thing Irving does better is score, and Paul is a pretty good scorer himself. Everything else is Chris Paul to varying degrees. Not a knock on Irving or Mitchell, just a reality. To be honest, just ignoring being a rookie, Simmons' season is simply more amazing than he's getting credit for right now.

[The_Hater]

Simmons looked like he was unanimous lock back in mid December.

Simmons should still be a unanimous lock now. The only reason he isn't is because people are excited to have another top quality rookie to talk about and probably a certain overvaluation of points on their own combined with a few other reasons.

Mitchell is very good. I'm not sure how good, but he sure looks like a future allstar to me with the potential to be somewhere between Klay Thompson and Dwyane Wade. Despite that it still really shouldn't be a debate. Simmons is just simply better. The only thing Mitchell does better is score. He's a brilliant scorer who happens to do a lot of other things pretty damn well, too, but it's kind of like comparing, say, Kyrie Irving to Chris Paul. Both are absolutely fantastic players, but the only thing Irving does better is score, and Paul is a pretty good scorer himself. Everything else is Chris Paul to varying degrees. Not a knock on Irving or Mitchell, just a reality. To be honest, just ignoring being a rookie, Simmons' season is simply more amazing than he's getting credit for right now.

If the vote was held today, I’m confident Simmons would not win unanimously. Regardless of the reasons why.