The Great Heat Turd Quarter Mystery

[radikalBaller]

Ok guys, it is time we start to test our basketball knowledge and try to analyse game tape, game stats, and coaching rotations to unravel the blueprint of those 3rd quarter debacles with solid data and facts...

Maybe we can help our clueless coaching staff. I suggest that we reward the best theories and analysis with a boatload of and 1s...

I know we have some clever people on this board, Heat coaching staff is crying for help...any help...

[Pure_Basketball]

Has anyone got the numbers for this? Pretty much every game we lose the third quarter by double digits against every single team.

[radikalBaller]

I will get the data to back it up, but my first observations from those turd quarters are that:

- Spo does not ride the hot hands and instead stick to preset rotations no matter how bad they are
- Hassan and Winslow on the court together is bad for the offense without translating to any extraordinary defense
- JJ does not play well with the starters
- Ellington needs JJ to set him up for 3s
- Spo wait too long to change inifecient lineups
- Jrich plays better with the braids
- TJ needs to play with JJ
- For some reason Spo fails to use all his timeouts
- After each one of Winslow's layup misses, the team get brainfoaked, feels sorry for Justise and forget how to score
- Hassan plays with 50% energy and stars whinning
- Dragic differs too much

[eddieheatfan]

I will get the data to back it up, but my first observations from those turd quarters are that:

- Spo does not ride the hot hands and instead stick to preset rotations no matter how bad they are
- Hassan and Winslow on the court together is bad for the offense without translating to any extraordinary defense
- JJ does not play well with the starters
- Ellington needs JJ to set him up for 3s
- Spo wait too long to change inifecient lineups
- Jrich plays better with the braids
- TJ needs to play with JJ
- For some reason Spo fails to use all his timeouts
- After each of Winslow's layups misses layups, team get brainfoaked, feels sorry for Justise and forget how to score
- Hassan plays with 50% energy and stars whinning
- Dragic differs too much

andd we are done here

[radikalBaller]

I would suggest that we:

- Let the bench play most of the 3rd quarter minutes as the starters get tired and lazy pretty quick after the first half specially Whiteside

- Seat winslow, send him to the gleague to practice his layups and build back his confidance

- Play Jrich-TJ- Ellington-JJ-Bam alot in the turd these guys have chemistry

- Use a time out each time a lead shrunk by 5 points, and make it a rule to always use all timeouts in the turd

- Let UD curse the **** out of everyone that plays soft or lazy

[radikalBaller]

Kelly goos island, Mion "Mion" island, Dragon cock offensiv island, Hassan-Winslow tbt(until traded) island, JJ-bench mob island

Read on Twitter

This graph in the link is low key hilarious, and reflects what we see on the court, why would Spo play justise in the 3rd when we are offensively challenged ? I dont care how much defense you play you are not winnig a basketball game in 2018 by scoring 15-17 point per quarter...

When was the last time a nba game was won by scoring in the 60s 70s ? Spo is fulll of shiat ...

[radikalBaller]

That TPA graph further confirm that the players who shoud play in the turd are Jrich Ellington JJ Bam Olynyk ...nice data

[radikalBaller]

Heat officially worst 3rd quarter scoring team in the entire league

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/3rd-quarter-points-per-game

[radikalBaller]

On the other side we are 4th in defense in the turd, which further confirms that Spo is full of shiat, we most often lose those quarters because of poor offense not because of bad defense..

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-3rd-quarter-points-per-game

My theory us that once we get a lead, spo try to play it safe by putting his defensive players on the floor in the turd regardless of how much offensively challenged they are and how much it kills the spacing for others...

Opponent see it all the time, ramp up their defensive aggressivity to cause disruptions and turnovers which they score off...

Will try to get stats of point allowed off turnovers in the turd to confirm...

[RexBoyWonder]

No mystery - simple combination of robotic coaching that doesn't react to in-game developments mixed with a lack of scoring star that can lead on the court, gets you buckets on his own and posses the talent and attitude to take the team on his shoulders when times get tough. Dragon is the closest we've got - but at his age he' not enough.

[Heat3]

tip for spo, call a timeout before a team goes on a 12-0 run.

[radikalBaller]

This is one of the best offensive lineup we have had so far:

B. Adebayo | W. Ellington | T. Johnson | K. Olynyk | J. Richardson

With Olynyk out you just have to replace him with JJ, specially when playing his best game of the season, is it too much common sense to ask to Spo ?

[Flash4thewin]

Maybe I’m wrong but didn’t we have problems in the third quarter even with the big three?

[radikalBaller]

Maybe I’m wrong but didn’t we have problems in the third quarter even with the big three?

Yes from what I recall those turd quarters existed even in the big 3 era, the difference was that we were talented enough to come back and win in the 4th most of the time...

[radikalBaller]

Read on Twitter

Nuff said

[BaDaBo]

I will get the data to back it up, but my first observations from those turd quarters are that:

- Spo does not ride the hot hands and instead stick to preset rotations no matter how bad they are
- Hassan and Winslow on the court together is bad for the offense without translating to any extraordinary defense
- JJ does not play well with the starters
- Ellington needs JJ to set him up for 3s
- Spo wait too long to change inifecient lineups
- Jrich plays better with the braids
- TJ needs to play with JJ
- For some reason Spo fails to use all his timeouts
- After each one of Winslow's layup misses, the team get brainfoaked, feels sorry for Justise and forget how to score
- Hassan plays with 50% energy and stars whinning
- Dragic differs too much

I wanted to bold just the ones I agree with...then a strange thing happened

[KingDavid]

Where do I begin...a lot of it has been covered already though.

How hard is it to roll with the hot hand?

Will the group you guys are saying is our best, perform against rested starters in the third?

Reading what the scout said, yeah Riley and Arison **** up. We only have Jrich and Bam that are worth keeping. Everyone else is hot trash, old, or overpaid. Of course we don't try to score (28th place) in a scorers league because our coach is an offensively inept baboon that cares too much about the side of the ball that has very little meaning in a vacuum. He needs a real offensive coach to help him because this is ridiculous.

[Flash4thewin]

Maybe I’m wrong but didn’t we have problems in the third quarter even with the big three?

Yes from what I recall those turd quarters existed even in the big 3 era, the difference was that we were talented enough to come back and win in the 4th most of the time...

Doesn’t that imply that part of our problem is on the coaching side. Not to beat a dead horses but let’s look at Golden State as an example. The organization had faith in Kerr but they hired the best assistant coaches money could buy to make sure he succeeded. Then one looks at our assistant coaches...

[KingDavid]

Maybe I’m wrong but didn’t we have problems in the third quarter even with the big three?

Yes from what I recall those turd quarters existed even in the big 3 era, the difference was that we were talented enough to come back and win in the 4th most of the time...

Doesn’t that imply that part of our problem is on the coaching side. Not to beat a dead horses but let’s look at Golden State as an example. The organization had faith in Kerr but they hired the best assistant coaches money could buy to make sure he succeeded. Then one looks at our assistant coaches...

Lmao bruh. Pure trash.

[radikalBaller]

Another day, another source, to help our coaching staff solve The Great Heat Turd Quarter Mistery..

Here is a podcast aout Tony Fiorentino take on the Mistery

http://heatbeatmiami.com/podcast/143-looking-stats-tony-fiorentino-miami-heat-color-commentator/

He tries to be very diplomatic and carefull about not burning the clueless coaching staff but his take is that they have not figured it out yet after all this tine and that they ususally try to go with defensive lineups in the Turd which in my opinion allow our opponent to pressure us on defense because of the poor spacing created by the inept heat offensive players. That pressure defense lead to turnovers allowing our opponents to come back and build confidence...