Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 6

[nevetsov]

My prediction:

- we see out the season starting mostly Payton, Book, Warren, Bender, with the 5th starting spot going to either Chandler or Jackson depending on matchup.

- Payton continues to show a consistent 14/9/4 and is definitely worth keeping.
- Book does what Book does.
- Jackson continues to put up around 20/7 and cements himself as a starter next season.
- Bender has ups and downs but shows enough to maintain a starting spot and be a core piece.
- TJ still has 20+ scoring games, but they become a little less frequent. He continues to start because even though we have no plans to trade him, we know that the minute he gets benched his trade value depreciates markedly.

- we recognize that Book, Payton, Warren, an even Jackson are entering win now piece mode. Book agrees to his extension but wants assurance that we aren't going to spend another 3 years developing.

- we assess our depth and agree that having Booker, Jackson, Warren as your 3 best wings at their cumulative peaks is contender material. We are happy with Payton in the current climate as starting PG will ink him up on a nice deal. We recognize that Bender is a good complementary big man at this stage, but not good enough to be the #1 big on a contender. To be competitive, we deduce that we need that #1 go to alpha big to pair with Bender.

- given that draftees take years to develop, we are more receptive to flipping/ consolidating our firsts IF it gives us the big that is a ready made #1 big man that complements Bender and the rest of the team. This player can be either PF or C, depending on where we see Benders future.

- out of all the current bigs in the league, we see AD as our primary target. NO misses the playoffs and there is some concern about Cousin's status. We pitch both our first (4th), Miami's first (12th) and a future first for AD, which is considered, but ultimately declined. We up the offer to include TJ but they push for Jackson, which we decline.

- we end up drafting a project big at 4, a combo guard at 12.

We enter next season with:

Payton, Knight, Ulis
Booker, Reed, DRAFT
Jackson, Warren
Chriss, DRAFT, Dudley
Bender, Williams, Chandler

[thamadkant]

This off season depending on draft position .. Is the time to consolidate multiple young pieces for a legit cornerstone player. Suns cannot keep entering the season to develop players.

But at the same time... It has to be a cornerstone that will help long term.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

This off season depending on draft position .. Is the time to consolidate multiple young pieces for a legit cornerstone player. Suns cannot keep entering the season to develop players.

But at the same time... It has to be a cornerstone that will help long term.

It's a good thing that Shaq, Allen Iverson and TIm Duncan are all in this draft!

[Mulhollanddrive]

Don't have a player in the Rising Stars trade away the MVP.

[Waylay13]

This off season depending on draft position .. Is the time to consolidate multiple young pieces for a legit cornerstone player. Suns cannot keep entering the season to develop players.

But at the same time... It has to be a cornerstone that will help long term.

Cornerstone is Booker. From there you ask yourself what does Booker need to help him reach the level that he is capable of?
a defensive wing = Jackson
a defensive and pass first point = Payton
a shot blocking defensive big man = Ayton, Bamba or JJJ
a 4 that can spread the floor = Bender or Chriss (if he can pull his head out)
Talent around the team this might be the biggest need is that we dont have a lot of talent off the bench and it needs to get better. So is it time to put out multiple young pieces to get a cornerstone player? only if you like to lose more.

[thamadkant]

This off season depending on draft position .. Is the time to consolidate multiple young pieces for a legit cornerstone player. Suns cannot keep entering the season to develop players.

But at the same time... It has to be a cornerstone that will help long term.

Cornerstone is Booker. From there you ask yourself what does Booker need to help him reach the level that he is capable of?
a defensive wing = Jackson
a defensive and pass first point = Payton
a shot blocking defensive big man = Ayton, Bamba or JJJ
a 4 that can spread the floor = Bender or Chriss (if he can pull his head out)
Talent around the team this might be the biggest need is that we dont have a lot of talent off the bench and it needs to get better. So is it time to put out multiple young pieces to get a cornerstone player? only if you like to lose more.

You overrate potential.

Bender has shown good things, but he needs to string them together so he is a LEGIT starting stretch PF/C for the Suns. Chriss becoming a legit Suns player is also slipping. They are behind a lot of players from their draft year and have a lot of work to do to catch up.


Jackson.. I believe is a keeper. Legit player next to Booker, good skill set to pair.


But the Suns need that STAR player to help push Booker and the rest to the next level. Someone to champion the burden until Booker hopefully carries it when he's in his mid 20s. Watching that McD interview, I think they will TRY to cash in their assets for a star in his prime or entering it... to be the team's co-leader with Booker.

[garrick]

I don't think Bender has the personality to be a star as he is way too passive but he looks to be a really good role player who will be even better if he can bulk up.

I like TJ but I think he should be a 6th man type unless he somehow expands his 3pt range overnight, maybe JJ can take his place eventually?

[Mjee]

Point blank .....Bender is never going to be a “star”

[Waylay13]

This off season depending on draft position .. Is the time to consolidate multiple young pieces for a legit cornerstone player. Suns cannot keep entering the season to develop players.

But at the same time... It has to be a cornerstone that will help long term.

Cornerstone is Booker. From there you ask yourself what does Booker need to help him reach the level that he is capable of?
a defensive wing = Jackson
a defensive and pass first point = Payton
a shot blocking defensive big man = Ayton, Bamba or JJJ
a 4 that can spread the floor = Bender or Chriss (if he can pull his head out)
Talent around the team this might be the biggest need is that we dont have a lot of talent off the bench and it needs to get better. So is it time to put out multiple young pieces to get a cornerstone player? only if you like to lose more.

You overrate potential.

Bender has shown good things, but he needs to string them together so he is a LEGIT starting stretch PF/C for the Suns. Chriss becoming a legit Suns player is also slipping. They are behind a lot of players from their draft year and have a lot of work to do to catch up.


Jackson.. I believe is a keeper. Legit player next to Booker, good skill set to pair.


But the Suns need that STAR player to help push Booker and the rest to the next level. Someone to champion the burden until Booker hopefully carries it when he's in his mid 20s. Watching that McD interview, I think they will TRY to cash in their assets for a star in his prime or entering it... to be the team's co-leader with Booker.

Overrate potential? you underrate everything that has to do with the Suns; there is nothing that they do that you are happy with. The simple fact is that I dont expect a team of superstars. i dont beleive that Bender will every be one. I dont beleive that Payton is going to be a superstar. I do believe that Jackson can reach that point if some shortsighted person doesnt force it on another team and more to the point I believe that Booker is closing in the door of being a superstar right now. It is a shortsighted person that would think that going out and bring in a player like Cousins would be the answer to all of our problem even if he has never done it before and more to the point it isnt promising that he will ever be the player that he was once he recovers from the injury he just got. The answer is not the grass is always greener on the other side; as a matter of fact it is rarely greener.

[sunsbum]

We don't need bender to be a star..we probably couldn't afford for him to be a star the way Jackson is improving along with whatever else we do this summer. We just need him to do what he's capable of doing consistently.

It's crazy to me how much people underate bender when his game is still evolving. Hes the best defensive rookie to play for the suns since Shawn Marion! He will be a very import starter/top tier role player for a super long time for us!

[thamadkant]

Cornerstone is Booker. From there you ask yourself what does Booker need to help him reach the level that he is capable of?
a defensive wing = Jackson
a defensive and pass first point = Payton
a shot blocking defensive big man = Ayton, Bamba or JJJ
a 4 that can spread the floor = Bender or Chriss (if he can pull his head out)
Talent around the team this might be the biggest need is that we dont have a lot of talent off the bench and it needs to get better. So is it time to put out multiple young pieces to get a cornerstone player? only if you like to lose more.

You overrate potential.

Bender has shown good things, but he needs to string them together so he is a LEGIT starting stretch PF/C for the Suns. Chriss becoming a legit Suns player is also slipping. They are behind a lot of players from their draft year and have a lot of work to do to catch up.


Jackson.. I believe is a keeper. Legit player next to Booker, good skill set to pair.


But the Suns need that STAR player to help push Booker and the rest to the next level. Someone to champion the burden until Booker hopefully carries it when he's in his mid 20s. Watching that McD interview, I think they will TRY to cash in their assets for a star in his prime or entering it... to be the team's co-leader with Booker.

Overrate potential? you underrate everything that has to do with the Suns; there is nothing that they do that you are happy with. The simple fact is that I dont expect a team of superstars. i dont beleive that Bender will every be one. I dont beleive that Payton is going to be a superstar. I do believe that Jackson can reach that point if some shortsighted person doesnt force it on another team and more to the point I believe that Booker is closing in the door of being a superstar right now. It is a shortsighted person that would think that going out and bring in a player like Cousins would be the answer to all of our problem even if he has never done it before and more to the point it isnt promising that he will ever be the player that he was once he recovers from the injury he just got. The answer is not the grass is always greener on the other side; as a matter of fact it is rarely greener.

I judge the Suns without bias that is all... I underrate them? They're tied for worst record in the league. Have 2 under achieving top 10 picks from last year. The problem with you and some are the optimism... Yes, its good to be optimistic... but its also good to see the reality of it. If you watch other young teams in the league, they have legit pieces moving forward as much if not more than the Suns.


Booker a superstar?
he's not even an all-star yet. A superstar is someone like Durant, Westbrook, Curry, Harden, Davis, Leonard, Lebron.... those are the legit Superstars in the league, the rest are Genuine All-Stars and some borderline depending if they're having a good season (Lowry etc.)

Booker is on the path to be a Genuine All-Star one day, but he needs to continue improving or he will be surpassed by even younger SGs... Donovan Mitchell comes to mind.


Jackson... now, he's the one that has made my view of the Suns future being bright again. He will be one of the better 2 way players in the league and compliment Booker. But its not enough...

Bender needs to be a consistent 14ppg 8rpg 1.5bpg 1.5spg stretch Big to really help the Suns reach the playoffs as a starter... if not then they need someone else who can.


This coming draft is a make or break for the Suns....

[gaspar]

NBA.com/Stats added some interesting new stats to their site: box outs and defensive box scores.

[NavLDO]

I disagree. Heat could be 12 through 14; buck pick im not as sold on, but i think 16 or 17 is possible.

The 12th, 16th, *31st and Chriss for the number 7 maybe? I dont know for certain if any team will, but i know you dont know for certain every team wont

Heat pick have one of easiest schedules left...look at their easy games... http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength and they are only 2 games out of sitting in the 21 spot...I think late teens..worst case early 20s...Milwaukee in 23rd slot right now. http://www.tankathon.com/

IDK what McD was thinking with the reverse protection. Giannis hasn't even peaked, their entire roster is still young. They are going to improve every year for at least the next 3 years IMO. I think maybe they were assuming Bledsoe would decline enough to make the Bucks get worse eventually, but being in the East, I just don't see that happening. Would have been okay with no reverse protection at all.

Wait...what?? Giannis hasn't peaked?? Oh boy, we are all in trouble...

Anyway, McD may have been thinking that, hey, I'd rather have some 2nd Rd picks as as ammo for situations like Elfrid, and I'l save that extra 1st for a couple years out...unless it's really good and I can use it to trade up in the lottery, or something, like, between 11-16th. Outside of that, I don't want it, because I already have that kind of pick in the Miami Heat pick.

IDK, just a theory...

[NavLDO]

If Suns draft someone like JJJ or Ayton.

They may have an issue with having too many young bigs that need minutes.


I think Chriss is the odd man out. On court... He may not get it ever... Or it may be too late... Like Michael Beasley

Except Beasley had basketball talent where Chriss just has athleticism.

C'mon...that's being a bit hyperbolic. Chriss has quite a bit of talent that just needs some coaching to be harnessed. You are mistaking young punkish attitude and uncontrolled play as not having talent, and that's just not true. Chriss has quite a bit of offensive and defensive talent.

I know it's easy to pick on the kid that is having some issues right now, but one doesn't play competitive basketball for 4 years, then get drafted into the NBA top 8 without talent and with athleticism alone; that just doesn't happen. You can point to X player that didn't make it in the NBA, but that doesn't mean the kid didn't have talent, that just means he didn't make in the NBA for whatever reason--likely a mixture of lack of opportunity, coaching, attitude, drive, and yes, talent that did not translate to the NBA level. But Chriss has already proven he has the talent to play at the NBA level; he is just sporadic when doing so. To me, that's a development problem, not a talent problem.

[NavLDO]

I wouldn't trade Josh Jackson for Ball right now.

I wouldn't have even drafted Ball ahead of Jackson, let alone take him now. I was ZERO to do with that clown. I like the IDEA of his game, big and pass first mentality, but watching him pisses me off. Hearing about him and his Dad pisses me off more. Not touching that train wreck of a family. Glad we got over our BROTHER obsession.

Dont look now, but we could draft two Bros this year.

Porter 1 and Porter 2

That's fine by me, so long as they want to be together, which I'm guessing they do, based upon both going to Mizzou.

Jontay needs some time to develop, but if he has the inkling of talent his 'big' (LOL) brother has...more like his 'little, older' brother, then, heck yeah, let's take them, say 4th and 19th (or however the ball bounces). Then take Landry Shamet (if still available at 31/32), and if not, take Jalen Brunson (yeah, ?s about his athleticism for the next level, but that's why he's going 2nd Rd).

Then, if he's gone, I would take a shot at Tony Carr from Penn St. I haven't been over to the Draft Thread, so not sure if he's been mentioned yet or not by anyone, but I think this kid comes out this season, after having an amazing season this year. He's 6'4" 205lbs, so already has an NBA body, I've seen him range from anywhere late 1st to undrafted. So, the NBA GMs no better where his value lies, so if he's a 31/32-value selection, then take him there. Shooting 46% on 5.2 3PT att/gm. 82.4% FT%. 19.6/4.8/4.5.

So with the Porter's in town, and say Jevon Carter and Carr, as well, because we get lucky, and Jevon falls to the 50s since his numbers aren't gawdy...

Elfrid / Booker / JJ / Porter / Bender (Yes, we beef him up and play him full time there)

Carter / Carr / Warren / other Porter / Sauce

Boom - done! We play Carr and Carter together, since Carter seems to be a dish-machine, and Carr has NBA SG size, the two can play well together...IF necessary (but doubt we run a straight 10 man rotation, anyway, so the time together on the court would be minimal) Anyway, I'm good with this!

[Son of Ra]

If Suns draft someone like JJJ or Ayton.

They may have an issue with having too many young bigs that need minutes.


I think Chriss is the odd man out. On court... He may not get it ever... Or it may be too late... Like Michael Beasley

Except Beasley had basketball talent where Chriss just has athleticism.

C'mon...that's being a bit hyperbolic. Chriss has quite a bit of talent that just needs some coaching to be harnessed. You are mistaking young punkish attitude and uncontrolled play as not having talent, and that's just not true. Chriss has quite a bit of offensive and defensive talent.

I know it's easy to pick on the kid that is having some issues right now, but one doesn't play competitive basketball for 4 years, then get drafted into the NBA top 8 without talent and with athleticism alone; that just doesn't happen. You can point to X player that didn't make it in the NBA, but that doesn't mean the kid didn't have talent, that just means he didn't make in the NBA for whatever reason--likely a mixture of lack of opportunity, coaching, attitude, drive, and yes, talent that did not translate to the NBA level. But Chriss has already proven he has the talent to play at the NBA level; he is just sporadic when doing so. To me, that's a development problem, not a talent problem.

I don't think Qwigglez is really off with that statement. I mean it's undeniable that coming out of college Beasley was on a different planet. He was way better and had way more talent than Chriss. But they both have/had attitude issues. Every player that has made it to the league has talent. It's the attitude that separates them.

Chriss has lost me too. Yes I can get excited about his flashes as they happen but overall I don't think he'll put it together. We've seen this so many times over in the league. Barely any player with his attitude/approach to the game puts it together.
Jackson was pouting, complaining and pointing gun fingers and now he's just sucking it up, turning around and keeps on playing - hard. Within a 2/3 season.
Chriss' body language is getting worse by the game. Complaining about everything, not going back on D, half assed effort when things are not going his way. Lazy fouls. And it's getting worse and more as his second year is coming to a close.

[BobbieL]

I don't think Bender has the personality to be a star as he is way too passive but he looks to be a really good role player who will be even better if he can bulk up.

I like TJ but I think he should be a 6th man type unless he somehow expands his 3pt range overnight, maybe JJ can take his place eventually?

I am okay if Bender is not a star - but he needs to become an effective rotational player - that's top 8. I do think Warren will fit better in a 6th man scoring role as the team evolves. Booker we know is the guy to build around with Jackson as his wing man type so to speak. Have to see if Payton can become that PG

I am not sure about Chriss but have to see what the draft picks are to help build out the roster. I would be up for making a trade this summer with a guy like Chriss - but not sure the player. And since GOrdon is an RFA - I am not sure you can sign and trade for him.

[NavLDO]

I disagree. Heat could be 12 through 14; buck pick im not as sold on, but i think 16 or 17 is possible.

The 12th, 16th, *31st and Chriss for the number 7 maybe? I dont know for certain if any team will, but i know you dont know for certain every team wont

Heat pick have one of easiest schedules left...look at their easy games... http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength and they are only 2 games out of sitting in the 21 spot...I think late teens..worst case early 20s...Milwaukee in 23rd slot right now. http://www.tankathon.com/

Thanks for posting that link, I read it again!

Now, with the assumption that i used more than magic 8 ball to form 'MY OPINION.'

Since the official Blake trade:

Philly 6-2 (easiest remaining schedule)
Pistons 6-3
Heat 1-8

You're right, going into tonight's game Detroit's strength of schedule is harder than Miami's, bbut by the narrowest of margins, .013.

The Heat, not playing well as of late, are essentially 1.5 games ahead of the Pistons for that final 8th spot (they have one more game against each other). If Pistons, who are playing better as of late, with virtually idential schedule stregnth going into tonights game, get that 8 spot.....Heat drop to picks 12-14.

Bucks are a little trickier, but they're looking at a tough 9 game stretch that will determine if we can expect their pick this year or not. If you're bottom 4 playoffs spots in the east, as of now, you want that 5 or 8 spot. Bucks will get in the playoffs, curious to their final stretch approach if this 9 game stretch puts them closer to the 8 spot. I prefer 2020 myself....but...

As for a possible draft trade...way too soon to say it wont happen. Unlikely? Ok! But what if dallas or sac get that 7th spot and trae is the 7th man waiting....they wouldnt consider grabbing the 12 AND the 17, or chriss, if they would be forced to grab carter, knox, williams or one of the bridges instead of Trae.

Or if a team like the magic has the 7 spot, young is off the board, they want sexton, you can probably get him at the 12 spot and we give you another draft pick a few spots down, hell, well throw in our high 2nd round pick you initially tried to get for Elfrid. I dont know they would, dont know they wouldnt.

Definitely possible scenario...

Sixers have a pretty easy remaining schedule, so I think they are in. The Heat's schedule is not as easy as it seems on paper, IMO, but I think they DO win their last 7 straight games...5 of which are at home, and the 2 away games are at ATL and NYK. The last two games are against opponents that likely won't have much to play for, except avoiding injury, while MIA will be fighting for a playoff spot.

So, unless the Heat really implode, I think they end up with the 7th seed at 44-38, and the Bucks and Pistons fighting for the 8th seed being 43-39/42-40-ish, which is bad for us, because if they finish with the 7th/8th seed, that pits them near that magic 17th number, depending on how the West finishes...ugh.

Anyway, while it's possible the Heat do not make the Playoffs, my money is on them getting the 7th seed...possibly the 6th seed if the Sixers end up being, well, the Sixers...lol. But they've put themselves in a really good position by winning their last 5 games; they conceivably good very well end up 47-35, in my estimation, while the Wizards and Pacers could end up the same, or 46-36.

It will be interesting to see, but Miami kind of screwed themselves (not like they were TRYING to lose) by letting off the gas these last 2 weeks. With their easy schedule, they could have put themselves in a position to finish 4th, pretty easily, but now? Even in the best scenario, I don't see them finishing above 46-36...that's basically them going 16-8 the rest of the way. Very possible, but I do not see 17-7 in that schedule, but that's just me.

[Hesh]

Well when we drafted Bender most people were just hoping that he could become the same player Andrei Kirilenko was

[NavLDO]

I know some of these creative extension scenarios with booker sound good in theory but its not going to happen. The first big extension is a life changing amount of money and no player or anyone advising them will do anything but want to get that done as soon as its available. Theres a reason no player has EVER turned down a max rookie extension.

Its easy for us fans to say 'just wait and sign that extension in the summer of 19' but when you have the chance to guarantee yourself over $100mil you do it. Lifes unpredictable and injuries happen its just too big of a risk to ask of a guy.

If they beleive in booker you just get it done this summer. I know these aren't exactly the same circumstances but a couple teams in recent history have hurt themselves with messing around extending stars. Love was pissed they wouldn't give him the 5 year max and that started his eventual leaving. Gordon hayward would still be under contract with the jazz had they extended him instead of letting him hit RFA and matching his deal.

Yep. That makes sense. However, so does the fact that the GM being able to convince the player NOT to take the Max until we get a FA or Trade under contract first. So maybe it's not a whole year, but just a couple of months?

I think (and this is just an example), if we were able sign get Boogie's interest, and told Booker "Hey, we are trying to get Boogie under contract, can you wait a few weeks for us to iron this out?" I'm sure he'd be ok with that.

But absolutely, we need to sign him this summer, if that is what is supposed to happen, and the right thing to do (I'm not overly clear, as you can tell, on how this all works).

But worst case scenario, we do the best we can in the draft, we sign both Booker and Elfrid, which, I fear, is going to be closer to $12-16M per vs $8M per, as some are thinking, and we attempt to compete with what we have so far, until Dudley, Chandler, and BK are resolved.

I'm thinking, if Elfrid maintains something anywhere close to what he's putting up now, say 15/7/5 with at least 37% on 2 Att/Gm, we do everything we can to keep him, draft JJJ and SJA, and move on.

Elfrid / Booker / JJ / Bender / JJJ

SJA / Reed / Warren / Chris / Sauce

+ what ever 2nd Rd picks we get

See what we can do with those, and think about stretching BK next summer for funds...

If we tried to get a top tier free agent this summer such as Boogie it doesn't impact Booker's extension at all. He wouldn't have to wait a couple of weeks. Besides Boogie though I don't see us being remotely interested in the other free agents available, maybe DJ if we drafted anyone but a center in this draft.

No, but it impacts our ability to sign Boogie, doesn't it? Or is it a scenario like Warren's, where if Booker signs now, it just ends up being a PPP, where the money will BE there, but it's not there yet. That's the part I don't understand enough, and I get the feeling some other posters on this forum do not either.

If we can sign Booker's extension/next Max, whatever you call it, this summer, can we conceivably sign someone like Boogie this Summer, as in, Booker's NEW contract, not inhibiting us from sign Boogie at all? I understand we'd need to clean up a little bit of other stuff; I'm just strictly talking about Booker's new contract's effect on our ability to sign a high-priced FA. When does Booker's money come into play?

This might alleviate a lot of misunderstanding around here, if you, or someone else, knows the answer. It may have already been posted, but it's a hard to read every post on every page.