The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[DroseReturnChi]

I think the problem is Simmons supporters are asking DM supporters to use stats and metrics to establish a reason for DM over Simmons.

To date no one has, instead they say well Utah has won 11 in a row and he is their top scorer. .

Mitchell has been doing things very few rookies have ever done. First rook in 6 years to score 40+. One of only 4 rookies to ever have multiple 40 point games before all star break. In elite company as far as 30+ games as well, and everybody else on the list was a #1 pick overall. First rookie since freaking Wilt to be leading scorer of a team during an 11 game streak.

Simmons can't shoot the 3 and shoots free throws like Shaq. I think there's a legit question whether or not he'll become a liability in the 4th quarter, while Mitchell plays better in the 4th quarter than any other time.

There are a lot of aspects to the game that don't show up in stats and metrics, but I don't blame Simmons fans for wanting to make it all about the stats.

DM's problem is he is too one dimensional. Simmons not being able to shoot is a massive problem but him improving his shot is more likely than DM developing an all-around game and becoming a two-way player. If DM becomes another clone of Derozan, that team using him as 1st option wont win anything like the Raptors have been doing in playoffs. I dont think he can reach Kobe's level of scoring ability. Probably should model after D-Wade and adapt to what the team needs most whether its scoring, rebounding, blocks, etc.

[Alex DeLarge]

So many obnoxious posters in this thread.

Is that really that difficult to acknowledge that both players have been outstanding (in different ways), and that both are locks to be all-stars for years to come?

If only fans would celebrate exciting new players like Simmons and Mitchell, rather than dumping on one or the other so that "their guy" wins the RealGM argument over ROTY.

[stitches]

I think the problem is Simmons supporters are asking DM supporters to use stats and metrics to establish a reason for DM over Simmons.

To date no one has, instead they say well Utah has won 11 in a row and he is their top scorer. .

Mitchell has been doing things very few rookies have ever done. First rook in 6 years to score 40+. One of only 4 rookies to ever have multiple 40 point games before all star break. In elite company as far as 30+ games as well, and everybody else on the list was a #1 pick overall. First rookie since freaking Wilt to be leading scorer of a team during an 11 game streak.

Simmons can't shoot the 3 and shoots free throws like Shaq. I think there's a legit question whether or not he'll become a liability in the 4th quarter, while Mitchell plays better in the 4th quarter than any other time.

There are a lot of aspects to the game that don't show up in stats and metrics, but I don't blame Simmons fans for wanting to make it all about the stats.

DM's problem is he is too one dimensional. Simmons not being able to shoot is a massive problem but him improving his shot is more likely than DM developing an all-around game and becoming a two-way player. If DM becomes another clone of Derozan, that team using him as 1st option wont win anything like the Raptors have been doing in playoffs. I dont think he can reach Kobe's level of scoring ability. Probably should model after D-Wade and adapt to what the team needs most whether its scoring, rebounding, blocks, etc.

Mitchell came into the league as the best point of attack defender in the draft class. This was actually his main strength coming into the league, not his offense. How is he one dimensional? He's a rookie who's not a liability on defense, while having the biggest offensive load from any rookie in this class(He was being compared to Avery Bradley, not to Lillard/Wade). Now he's not been the killer defender everyone expected, but IMO a lot of it is him preserving energy because of the huge burden he needs to shoulder on offense... plus... you know... being a rookie who's still learning how to play team defense in the league. I also think people underestimate his playmaking because of the system the Jazz run, which doesn't land itself to creating a ton of assists(just look at Rubio's assist numbers in Utah's system vs in Minny as an example). IMO he's not a worse playmaker than say Hayward was for the Jazz, for example and he will continue to get better. And Hayward was considered one of the most versatile wings in the league. Mitchell is very far from a one dimensional scorer. What I would like him to get much better at is rebounding, because he has the athleticism and length for it...

In his prime, Mitchell will be a two-way superstar IMO.

[michaelm]

Based on the last 11 games Mitchell is the ROTY.

You might want to check out what Simmons has been up to his past 12 games. Sixers are 8-4 and Simmons is posting an efficient like 18/7/7 and more importantly is about a +90. Team success is about team success and the Jazz have a great ensemble cast, doesn't make any sense to start basing things on wins and losses without taking any context into account.

I am a Simmons partisan and think he is ahead of Mitchell on a whole season basis, and am well aware of both the Sixers' results since January and Simmons' individual results over that time, and have pointed them out on this very thread.

If Utah continue their results from the last 11 games for the rest of the season they will win the title however. Do I think an 11 game stretch in the regular season decides anything?. Absolutely not, which was pretty much my point.

[Kolkmania]

The whole argument of Donovan Mitchell being the top scorer of the Jazz in their 11 game winning streak is weird imo. What if the Jazz lost the game he was sick? It would have changed zero things about Mitchell's impact, but people wouldn't make the same argument.

[PLO]

delete, wrong thread!

[cl2117]

Now you are being disingenuous. Celtics fans would be out in full force if Tatum had Simmons year and people were claiming DM should win ROY or that it was even close.

And they'd be annoying as ****. That's the point!

I'm not saying C's fans wouldn't be. I can tell you I wouldn't be because I don't need to trash one guy to acknowledge the other.

If you'd find it annoying if another fan base was doing it and you're doing it, then guess what? You're probably annoying to everyone else!

You are drawing generalised conclusions from a few individual posters as well.

What most Simmons partisans are saying is not that there is no discussion but that Ben Simmons all round game and statistics for the whole season trump Mitchell's better scoring ability, which has translated into a strong winning percentage for his team only rather recently, at this point in time.

If Utah continue for their next 25 games as they have for the last 10 or 11 Mitchell would go close to being MVP, not just ROTY, with Gobert probably out of the running for MVP even in that eventuality because of games missed.

No I'm not.

I've been calling out specifically those posters who are annoying fanboys who feel the need to downplay Mitchell to hype Simmons and caveating it all with "if you are not once of these people then I'm not talking about you". I say it in almost every post. There are just a bunch of Sixers fans who just start seeing red and ignore that as if a) I'm saying something bad about Simmons, whom I've only used superlatives when discussing or b) calling out the entire fanbase, which again I'm not, I'm specifically referring to those individual posters.

People need to learn to read. IF YOU ARE NOT TRASHING MITCHELL IN ORDER TO PUMP SIMMONS TIRES THEN I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT YOU.

Simmons doesn't need that. He's having a historic season in his own right. That's all I'm saying. It really shouldn't be a controversial statement. Mitchell is doing really impressive things as well, he deserves to be in the conversation even if he's a clear #2 behind Simmons in your mind. I'm not even a fan of either of the teams, I just can respect both of their truly impressive rookie campaigns. Acknowledging Mitchell takes NOTHING away from Simmons.

[michaelm]

And they'd be annoying as ****. That's the point!

I'm not saying C's fans wouldn't be. I can tell you I wouldn't be because I don't need to trash one guy to acknowledge the other.

If you'd find it annoying if another fan base was doing it and you're doing it, then guess what? You're probably annoying to everyone else!

You are drawing generalised conclusions from a few individual posters as well.

What most Simmons partisans are saying is not that there is no discussion but that Ben Simmons all round game and statistics for the whole season trump Mitchell's better scoring ability, which has translated into a strong winning percentage for his team only rather recently, at this point in time.

If Utah continue for their next 25 games as they have for the last 10 or 11 Mitchell would go close to being MVP, not just ROTY, with Gobert probably out of the running for MVP even in that eventuality because of games missed.

No I'm not.

I've been calling out specifically those posters who are annoying fanboys who feel the need to downplay Mitchell to hype Simmons and caveating it all with "if you are not once of these people then I'm not talking about you". I say it in almost every post. There are just a bunch of Sixers fans who just start seeing red and ignore that as if a) I'm saying something bad about Simmons, whom I've only used superlatives when discussing or b) calling out the entire fanbase, which again I'm not, I'm specifically referring to those individual posters.

People need to learn to read. IF YOU ARE NOT TRASHING MITCHELL IN ORDER TO PUMP SIMMONS TIRES THEN I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT YOU.

Simmons doesn't need that. He's having a historic season in his own right. That's all I'm saying. It really shouldn't be a controversial statement. Mitchell is doing really impressive things as well, he deserves to be in the conversation even if he's a clear #2 behind Simmons in your mind. I'm not even a fan of either of the teams, I just can respect both of their truly impressive rookie campaigns. Acknowledging Mitchell takes NOTHING away from Simmons.

I am not really a fan of either team, but have an interest in both because of the Australian players and I already really rated both Embiid and Gobert prior to this season which didn’t require much perception.

It seems to be cutting both ways to me just now in terms of supporters of one player denigrating the other.

I am happy to see how it plays out as you no doubt are as well. Utah are looking incredibly dangerous to me right now, with Mitchell obviously substantially contributing. My inclination overall is to Simmons and the Sixers, bur both probably need another year and Fultz to come out of hibernation imo.

[Black Mage]

So many obnoxious posters in this thread.

Is that really that difficult to acknowledge that both players have been outstanding (in different ways), and that both are locks to be all-stars for years to come?

If only fans would celebrate exciting new players like Simmons and Mitchell, rather than dumping on one or the other so that "their guy" wins the RealGM argument over ROTY.

I acknowledged long ago that I am a huge DM fan and that in any other year he'd be a runaway leader for ROY. Unfortunately for him, he hit a year where another rookie is just on a historical level and there isn't much other than points scored that DM does better than the other rookie.

I am personally thrilled for the Jazz because it was a nice break for them after losing Hayward. I wish them nothing but good health and luck going forward. But DM is not ROY this year at this stage of the season.

[Winglish]

It's a close race between Mitchell and Simmons.

TS% (Too close to call)
Mitchell .544
Simmons .542

PER (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 18.5
Mitchell 17.0

Assist % (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 33.7
Mitchell 19.3

TOV% (Advantage Mitchell)
Mitchell 12.6
Simmons 19.6

Win Shares and VORP both go to Simmons but both are plus players.

(Mitchell's 2.1 DWS is REALLY GOOD and people saying he does not defend are mind numbing idiots who do not understand actual basketball. Simmons is near elite at 3.3. BOTH players are Top 50 statistically! Clearly negates any statement about Utah's defense being all Gobert, even though Gobert is the best defender in the NBA.)




What have you done for me lately Donovan Mitchell?

Mitchell is 1 of 4 rookies in all of NBA history to record multiple 40 point games.

Mitchell has a 50 point game.

Mitchell is the first rookie to lead his team in scoring on a 10 game win streak since Wilt Freaking Chamberlain.

Donovan Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring points. (You know, that thing you have to do more of than your opponent to win basketball games.)

Has led the Jazz to a better record today than 2017 All-Star Gordon Hayward did last year. (Read that again!)



What have you done for me lately Ben Simmons?

4th in assists

6th in steals

3rd in DWS

4th in DBPM

6 triple doubles



Advantage today in my opinion is Ben Simmons by a hair's edge. If Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz to the playoffs in the year they lost Gordon Hayward I think everyone should take a hard look at Mitchell for ROY. How often does a rookie replace an NBA All-Star and lead the team in his first season to the same heights?



Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

[Sixerscan]

Mitchell has a 50 point game.

When? In high school? Not in the NBA...

[bebopdeluxe]

It's a close race between Mitchell and Simmons.

TS% (Too close to call)
Mitchell .544
Simmons .542

PER (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 18.5
Mitchell 17.0

Assist % (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 33.7
Mitchell 19.3

TOV% (Advantage Mitchell)
Mitchell 12.6
Simmons 19.6

Win Shares and VORP both go to Simmons but both are plus players.

(Mitchell's 2.1 DWS is REALLY GOOD and people saying he does not defend are mind numbing idiots who do not understand actual basketball. Simmons is near elite at 3.3. BOTH players are Top 50 statistically! Clearly negates any statement about Utah's defense being all Gobert, even though Gobert is the best defender in the NBA.)




What have you done for me lately Donovan Mitchell?

Mitchell is 1 of 4 rookies in all of NBA history to record multiple 40 point games.

Mitchell has a 50 point game.

Mitchell is the first rookie to lead his team in scoring on a 10 game win streak since Wilt Freaking Chamberlain.

Donovan Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring points. (You know, that thing you have to do more of than your opponent to win basketball games.)

Has led the Jazz to a better record today than 2017 All-Star Gordon Hayward did last year. (Read that again!)



What have you done for me lately Ben Simmons?

4th in assists

6th in steals

3rd in DWS

4th in DBPM

6 triple doubles



Advantage today in my opinion is Ben Simmons by a hair's edge. If Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz to the playoffs in the year they lost Gordon Hayward I think everyone should take a hard look at Mitchell for ROY. How often does a rookie replace an NBA All-Star and lead the team in his first season to the same heights?



Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

While you bring up some good points, I will refer you - and the board - to the article published by the Washington Post earlier his week, where the writer (whom I would assume has no “dog in this fight”) references data from Synergy Sports - who provides advanced analytical data for the D/G League and every D-1 and D-2 team - as to the player’s defensive metrics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/02/14/ben-simmons-is-more-deserving-than-donovan-mitchell-of-nba-rookie-of-the-year/?utm_term=.89bc2e4cedc1

In essence, the Sixers defense is 3.9 points per 100 possessions worse when Simmons is on the bench, while the Jazz defense is 1.6 points BETTER when Mitchell is on the bench. A difference of 5.5 points per 100 possessions is simply MASSIVE, IMO...and this difference is supported by the DPBM differences between the two players as well. This is one of the key differences between the two players - Simmons, based simply on the numbers, is playing at an All-Defensive Team level, which is unheard of for a rookie perimeter player - and especially one who guards multiple players on the floor. His ability to switch on the perimeter and guard everything 1-through-4 is in rarified, LBJ/PG air...which, when combined with Embiid’s post presnce, is why the Sixers’ defense is top-5 in the NBA.

Does Mitchell have the tools to become a great defensive player? Definitely. But, as the numbers show, he ain’t there yet.

The other area where Mitchell falls short is in his offensive efficiency. For a player with the USG% that he has, only shooting 3 FT’s a game is horrible efficiency - especially given that he is a good FT shooter. To be fair, DSJ has the same issue - a high-usage player who doesn’t get to the line. A random check of other high-usage players shows how out of line his low FT attempts are. I will defer to others who have watched him more than me, but it looks like shot selection is also a bit of an issue as well - which is probably a factor in his low VORP relative to Simmons. Mitchell is fourth in both WS and VORP on the Jazz, despite being #1 in USG% - and my guess is this offensive inefficiency is a key factor. I think it is why Mitchell and Simmons’ TS% is so close, in spite of Simmons’ challenges on the perimeter.

I am sure it is no surprise that I come down on the same side as the Washington Post reporter - Simmons is still the clear leader for ROY. It will probably come down to how the two teams finish the season as well. As of now, the Sixers have a better record - both overall and since January 1 - and they are currently in playoff seeding, only 2 games out of home-court in the 1st round. If the Jazz continue to play well and make the playoffs, and Mitchell continues to play well, the ROY race could tighten up more...but for now it is still Simmons’ race to lose, IMO.

[dukes_wild]

Simmons is the ROY imo, but I'm a huge fan of Mitchell's game. I think if the Jazz can complete this miracle run and sneak into the 8th/7th seed, Mitchell has a huge case for it since he's arguably had the less talented team and he's in a tougher conference.

[stitches]

It's a close race between Mitchell and Simmons.

TS% (Too close to call)
Mitchell .544
Simmons .542

PER (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 18.5
Mitchell 17.0

Assist % (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 33.7
Mitchell 19.3

TOV% (Advantage Mitchell)
Mitchell 12.6
Simmons 19.6

Win Shares and VORP both go to Simmons but both are plus players.

(Mitchell's 2.1 DWS is REALLY GOOD and people saying he does not defend are mind numbing idiots who do not understand actual basketball. Simmons is near elite at 3.3. BOTH players are Top 50 statistically! Clearly negates any statement about Utah's defense being all Gobert, even though Gobert is the best defender in the NBA.)




What have you done for me lately Donovan Mitchell?

Mitchell is 1 of 4 rookies in all of NBA history to record multiple 40 point games.

Mitchell has a 50 point game.

Mitchell is the first rookie to lead his team in scoring on a 10 game win streak since Wilt Freaking Chamberlain.

Donovan Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring points. (You know, that thing you have to do more of than your opponent to win basketball games.)

Has led the Jazz to a better record today than 2017 All-Star Gordon Hayward did last year. (Read that again!)



What have you done for me lately Ben Simmons?

4th in assists

6th in steals

3rd in DWS

4th in DBPM

6 triple doubles



Advantage today in my opinion is Ben Simmons by a hair's edge. If Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz to the playoffs in the year they lost Gordon Hayward I think everyone should take a hard look at Mitchell for ROY. How often does a rookie replace an NBA All-Star and lead the team in his first season to the same heights?



Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

While you bring up some good points, I will refer you - and the board - to the article published by the Washington Post earlier his week, where the writer (whom I would assume has no “dog in this fight”) references data from Synergy Sports - who provides advanced analytical data for the D/G League and every D-1 and D-2 team - as to the player’s defensive metrics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/02/14/ben-simmons-is-more-deserving-than-donovan-mitchell-of-nba-rookie-of-the-year/?utm_term=.89bc2e4cedc1

In essence, the Sixers defense is 3.9 points per 100 possessions worse when Simmons is on the bench, while the Jazz defense is 1.6 points BETTER when Mitchell is on the bench. A difference of 5.5 points per 100 possessions is simply MASSIVE, IMO...and this difference is supported by the DPBM differences between the two players as well. This is one of the key differences between the two players - Simmons, based simply on the numbers, is playing at an All-Defensive Team level, which is unheard of for a rookie perimeter player - and especially one who guards multiple players on the floor. His ability to switch on the perimeter and guard everything 1-through-4 is in rarified, LBJ/PG air...which, when combined with Embiid’s post presnce, is why the Sixers’ defense is top-5 in the NBA.

Does Mitchell have the tools to become a great defensive player? Definitely. But, as the numbers show, he ain’t there yet.

The other area where Mitchell falls short is in his offensive efficiency. For a player with the USG% that he has, only shooting 3 FT’s a game is horrible efficiency - especially given that he is a good FT shooter. To be fair, DSJ has the same issue - a high-usage player who doesn’t get to the line. A random check of other high-usage players shows how out of line his low FT attempts are. I will defer to others who have watched him more than me, but it looks like shot selection is also a bit of an issue as well - which is probably a factor in his low VORP relative to Simmons. Mitchell is fourth in both WS and VORP on the Jazz, despite being #1 in USG% - and my guess is this offensive inefficiency is a key factor. I think it is why Mitchell and Simmons’ TS% is so close, in spite of Simmons’ challenges on the perimeter.

I am sure it is no surprise that I come down on the same side as the Washington Post reporter - Simmons is still the clear leader for ROY. It will probably come down to how the two teams finish the season as well. As of now, the Sixers have a better record - both overall and since January 1 - and they are currently in playoff seeding, only 2 games out of home-court in the 1st round. If the Jazz continue to play well and make the playoffs, and Mitchell continues to play well, the ROY race could tighten up more...but for now it is still Simmons’ race to lose, IMO.

The on-off numbers are very context dependent. For example, Simmons has played much more minutes with Philly's real defensive anchor - Embiid than Mitchell has played with Gobert. (following numbers by nbawowy)

Embiid+Simmons have played 1949 possessions together in which Philly is posting 101.1 defensive rating
Gobert+Mitchell have played 1338 possessions together in which Utah is posting 100.1 defensive rating
Simmons has played 1922 possessions without Embiid in which Philly is posting 111.1 defensive rating
Mitchell has played 2130 possessions without Gobert in which Utah is posting 111.5 defensive rating

As you can see the defensive rating numbers in comparable situations are very close to each other. I would say eerily similar. What is different and what I assume makes up for the difference in the on-off defensive numbers is the proportion of minutes each of them has played with and without the respective true defensive anchor of the team.

Some additional data(both too small of samples probably):
Gobert without Mitchell defensive rating - 110.1(577 possessions)
Embiid without Simmons defensive rating - 107.4(893 possessions)

[bebopdeluxe]

It's a close race between Mitchell and Simmons.

TS% (Too close to call)
Mitchell .544
Simmons .542

PER (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 18.5
Mitchell 17.0

Assist % (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 33.7
Mitchell 19.3

TOV% (Advantage Mitchell)
Mitchell 12.6
Simmons 19.6

Win Shares and VORP both go to Simmons but both are plus players.

(Mitchell's 2.1 DWS is REALLY GOOD and people saying he does not defend are mind numbing idiots who do not understand actual basketball. Simmons is near elite at 3.3. BOTH players are Top 50 statistically! Clearly negates any statement about Utah's defense being all Gobert, even though Gobert is the best defender in the NBA.)




What have you done for me lately Donovan Mitchell?

Mitchell is 1 of 4 rookies in all of NBA history to record multiple 40 point games.

Mitchell has a 50 point game.

Mitchell is the first rookie to lead his team in scoring on a 10 game win streak since Wilt Freaking Chamberlain.

Donovan Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring points. (You know, that thing you have to do more of than your opponent to win basketball games.)

Has led the Jazz to a better record today than 2017 All-Star Gordon Hayward did last year. (Read that again!)



What have you done for me lately Ben Simmons?

4th in assists

6th in steals

3rd in DWS

4th in DBPM

6 triple doubles



Advantage today in my opinion is Ben Simmons by a hair's edge. If Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz to the playoffs in the year they lost Gordon Hayward I think everyone should take a hard look at Mitchell for ROY. How often does a rookie replace an NBA All-Star and lead the team in his first season to the same heights?



Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

While you bring up some good points, I will refer you - and the board - to the article published by the Washington Post earlier his week, where the writer (whom I would assume has no “dog in this fight”) references data from Synergy Sports - who provides advanced analytical data for the D/G League and every D-1 and D-2 team - as to the player’s defensive metrics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/02/14/ben-simmons-is-more-deserving-than-donovan-mitchell-of-nba-rookie-of-the-year/?utm_term=.89bc2e4cedc1

In essence, the Sixers defense is 3.9 points per 100 possessions worse when Simmons is on the bench, while the Jazz defense is 1.6 points BETTER when Mitchell is on the bench. A difference of 5.5 points per 100 possessions is simply MASSIVE, IMO...and this difference is supported by the DPBM differences between the two players as well. This is one of the key differences between the two players - Simmons, based simply on the numbers, is playing at an All-Defensive Team level, which is unheard of for a rookie perimeter player - and especially one who guards multiple players on the floor. His ability to switch on the perimeter and guard everything 1-through-4 is in rarified, LBJ/PG air...which, when combined with Embiid’s post presnce, is why the Sixers’ defense is top-5 in the NBA.

Does Mitchell have the tools to become a great defensive player? Definitely. But, as the numbers show, he ain’t there yet.

The other area where Mitchell falls short is in his offensive efficiency. For a player with the USG% that he has, only shooting 3 FT’s a game is horrible efficiency - especially given that he is a good FT shooter. To be fair, DSJ has the same issue - a high-usage player who doesn’t get to the line. A random check of other high-usage players shows how out of line his low FT attempts are. I will defer to others who have watched him more than me, but it looks like shot selection is also a bit of an issue as well - which is probably a factor in his low VORP relative to Simmons. Mitchell is fourth in both WS and VORP on the Jazz, despite being #1 in USG% - and my guess is this offensive inefficiency is a key factor. I think it is why Mitchell and Simmons’ TS% is so close, in spite of Simmons’ challenges on the perimeter.

I am sure it is no surprise that I come down on the same side as the Washington Post reporter - Simmons is still the clear leader for ROY. It will probably come down to how the two teams finish the season as well. As of now, the Sixers have a better record - both overall and since January 1 - and they are currently in playoff seeding, only 2 games out of home-court in the 1st round. If the Jazz continue to play well and make the playoffs, and Mitchell continues to play well, the ROY race could tighten up more...but for now it is still Simmons’ race to lose, IMO.

The on-off numbers are very context dependent. For example, Simmons has played much more minutes with Philly's real defensive anchor - Embiid than Mitchell has played with Gobert. (following numbers by nbawowy)

Embiid+Simmons have played 1949 possessions together in which Philly is posting 101.1 defensive rating
Gobert+Mitchell have played 1338 possessions together in which Utah is posting 100.1 defensive rating
Simmons has played 1922 possessions without Embiid in which Philly is posting 111.1 defensive rating
Mitchell has played 2130 possessions without Gobert in which Utah is posting 111.5 defensive rating

As you can see the defensive rating numbers in comparable situations are very close to each other. I would say eerily similar. What is different and what I assume makes up for the difference in the on-off defensive numbers is the proportion of minutes each of them has played with and without the respective true defensive anchor of the team.

Some additional data:
Gobert without Mitchell defensive rating - 110.1(577 possessions)
Embiid without Simmons defensive rating - 107.4(893 possessions)

Good post. There is no question that Gobert changes EVERYTHING for the Jazz. He is arguably the team's most valuable player.

Of course, if you make this case, then you must also consider that the REAL driver behind the Jazz's recent good play is not Mitchell, but the return of Gobert.

Without Gobert (12/15 - 1/19): 4-and-11
With Gobert (since return): 12-and-2, with an 11 game winning streak

The good thing is the last 25-27 games will likely decide this. Should be fun to watch.

[stitches]

Good post. There is no question that Gobert changes EVERYTHING for the Jazz. He is arguably the team's most valuable player.

Of course, if you make this case, then you must also consider that the REAL driver behind the Jazz's recent good play is not Mitchell, but the return of Gobert.

Without Gobert (12/15 - 1/19): 4-and-11
With Gobert (since return): 12-and-2, with an 11 game winning streak

The good thing is the last 25-27 games will likely decide this. Should be fun to watch.

Gobert is definitely the more impactful(and better) player than Mitchell right now. That doesn't mean that we would have been able to win all those games without Mitchell. As you can see by the stats I posted above, they seem to have amplifying effect with eachother(at least defensively). But the same situation applies to Embiid and Simmons.

For what it's worth the last 10 games or so have probably been the worst 10 game stretch for Mitchell since November. Part of it is him playing several games sick. He lit up PHX while puking before the game, then missed a game sick, then he seemed totally out of sorts the next two games... Another part of it IMO is him getting harder shots because of the return of Gobert and the more crowded paints he sees in lineups with Gobert and Favors on the floor(the dirty little secret on Mitchell in the last 2 months before this stretch has been that the reason for him being efficient was his ability to go to the rim, not his shooting). Now with Favors and Gobert not spacing the floor he faces multiple defenders around the rim and it has made him take much harder/inefficient shots. It will be interesting to see if he manages to adjust and how he does it. His offensive development and adjustments have been remarkable to me. He's doing things right now I didn't imagine he will ever be able to do at draft time.

For what it's worth, I think Simmons probably deserves it more right now because he's been having an amazing season himself and impacts the game in multiple ways and I wouldn't be upset at all if he wins it. Whatever happens it's fun to have a ROTY race that's actually between rookies who are not just helping, but being integral parts in their teams winning games in the playoff hunt well into February. I don't know when the last time was when we had such a race between rookies who were not part of teams at the bottom of the standings.

[bebopdeluxe]

The one thing that Mitchell has that you cannot teach is what Brian Dawkins calls “dog”...he wants the ball in the guts of the game. He wants to be a closer. To be honest, that is what we all thought Fultz would be (and still hope he will potentially be). A guy who - with the game tied and 40 seconds to go - who can SCORE THE BALL. It is one of the hardest things to find in the NBA, and Mitchell is potentially that guy for you, which is simply huge. Simmons does not have that in his toolbox right now...and he may never have it. Does not take away from his massive impact, but he is wired to be a facilitator, first and foremost. Perhaps, as his game develops, he will get there...but he is not there now.

It will be interesting to see whether the Sixers choose this summer to see if Fultz can still be that guy, or whip out the checkbook to see if LBJ wants to take our money (but that is something for another thread).

[Kobblehead]

Assist % (Advantage Simmons)
Simmons 33.7
Mitchell 19.3

TOV% (Advantage Mitchell)
Mitchell 12.6
Simmons 19.6

Why not just consolidate this category?

Assist Percentage to Turnover Percentage:
Simmons: +14.1%
Mitchell: +6.7%

Advantage Simmons, by a wide margin.

[Black Mage]

Finally getting some facts and stats to discuss. It is a real shame, last year we were begging for a rookie to step up and win the award. This year we have two amazing rookies but one unfortunately will miss out.

I wonder which would get the bigger chip on their shoulder if they lost. We already saw Simmons turn his game up a notch after the All Star snub. Pretty sure DM would do the same.

[New_Hawks_Era]

Obviously it's gonna be John Collins