2018 All-Star Weekend Thread: No Magic In the Air

[Def Swami]

MCW has a good rookie season after being drafted outside the top 10. Mitchell is having a good rookie season after being drafted outside the top 10.

There is your comparison.

I expect the comparisons to continue in terms of a lack of ability to push their productivity forward and continue to improve. Mitchell has a lot of natural limitations.

MCW had inflated raw numbers on 19-63 team. All his efficiency numbers were ugly . For example , midway through a rookie year, in March and February he was shooting 18% and 21% for 3 on 38% FG overall and averaged 4,5 turnovers.

What do you mean "lack of ability to push their production forward and countinue to improve" ?
MCW was terrible from gates and stayed terrible, Mitchell already is better than half of nba at his position. Klay Thompson, Beal and Oladipo, all at age of 21 were less productive than he is now.

Klay at 21 - 12,5 ppg
Oladipo -13,8 ( medicore efficiency)
Beal - 15 ppg


all of them had around 2-3 apg and 2 to 3 rpg .

Again, what natural limitations you talk about ? Sorry to break it up to you, but taller doesn't mean more talented. Thabeet was taller than Harden

You need to start WATCHING basketball.

Everyone is infatuated with empty scoring numbers. This leads to fans worshiping the likes of Tobias Harris...

Watch his games. Again, he is starting off well but where is the spark that shows he can be the elite player you hope for with a top pick? It doesn’t exists. That is what I mean by natural limitations. His ceiling is almost here.

Watch on YouTube

I'm getting the impression that you are the one who hasn't watched any Donovan Mitchell. He's not just chucking up jumpshots. He's actually winning games for the Jazz on decent efficiency for a rookie. The Jazz don't run off 11 straight without him. On/off numbers show that he's a net positive on offense for a Jazz team that absolutely tanks without Mitchell on court.

There are no physical limitations; he's 6'3" with a 7' wingspan and 40 inch vertical. You saying he's reached his ceiling is just as foolish as saying '03 Wade reached his in his rookie year; Mitchell actually comes into the league younger with a jumper. You have no clue how this kid will end up, but he's got a lot more going in his favor than other draft prospects. God forbid we bank on basketball players who can actually shoot, pass, and dribble out the gate.

[MagicFan101]

Watch on YouTube

oh look ,it's Mitchell killing and owning team that has two 7'0 superstars one month into his nba career.

Take off your homer glasses, i don't mind Isaac at 6#, redraft this draft today and Tatum and Mitchell are going 1 and 2 and Lauri is probably going top 5 as well.

Top 5 picks are based on pojections and potential, not first year production.

Mitchell and Lauri do no go top 5 in any but the worst of the worst draft classes.

Draft Prospect != NBA Player

Lauri and MItchell are better prospects than most of players drafted in lottery from 2013 to this day. People just look at guys like Noel and see what is never there ( "elite defender, DPOY candidate ) and draft him based on nothing but what he might be if he becomes 50 times better version of 19 years old self. And what a suprise, most of them fail.
Literally most of people drafted on potential 3-4 years into nba career don't have single nba skill. That's how Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh got drafted over Šarić in nba.

But that is what a draft prospect is... an idea! You’re trying to use the present to predict the past which is pointless. Guys like Lauri and Mithell were drafted later for a reason and that will always be the case.

You laid it out perfectly. You clearly understand the difference between a player and a prospect but you seem unable to realize that you understand.

[BadMofoPimp]

Tiny SGs who score in bunches are fun. Pair them with a great PG or even a point forward and you can do well. But that is a hard combination to replicate.

Bravo to Mitchell for the strong start. He will have a very nice career in the NBA. But Isaac could be a cornerstone piece.

He is only an inch shorter than McCollum.

We don’t have a Lilliard... as an example of the scenario I gave where this COULD work.

Too many red flags to take a guy like that at 6. Find us that star franchise player and then we can look at safer (yet lower ceiling) picks. Especially since with that franchise player likely comes fewer top 10 picks.

I agree that Slim is the safer pick, but think it is possible that Mitchell may end up the better player. And, if he does end up the better player, then you make him fit. Mitchel is sure fitting with Jazz without Lilliard.

[pepe1991]

Top 5 picks are based on pojections and potential, not first year production.

Mitchell and Lauri do no go top 5 in any but the worst of the worst draft classes.

Draft Prospect != NBA Player

Lauri and MItchell are better prospects than most of players drafted in lottery from 2013 to this day. People just look at guys like Noel and see what is never there ( "elite defender, DPOY candidate ) and draft him based on nothing but what he might be if he becomes 50 times better version of 19 years old self. And what a suprise, most of them fail.
Literally most of people drafted on potential 3-4 years into nba career don't have single nba skill. That's how Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh got drafted over Šarić in nba.

But that is what a draft prospect is... an idea! You’re trying to use the present to predict the past which is pointless. Guys like Lauri and Mithell were drafted later for a reason and that will always be the case.

You laid it out perfectly. You clearly understand the difference between a player and a prospect but you seem unable to realize that you understand.

But you use draft position as Be-all and end-all manners. In same draft Jimmy Butler , Tobias Harris, Isaiah Thomas (60# Pick ) and Leonard were all selected outside lottery where guys like Ferdette, Vesely, Biyombo , T. Thompson, Brandon Knight and Derick Williams were lottery picks.
I argue against your notion that draft position has anything to do with real potential.

2011 draft, outside Irving , was one of worst drafts in terms of scouting. They got almost all picks wrong.

Just because guys like MItchell , Lauri now, or Kawihi and JImmy in past slipped in draft that doesn't mean they are worst or have less potential, it just means that scouts overlooked their skills and potential in favour of somebody else.

Again - Kawihi Leonard was 15# pick where Derrick Wiliams was contender for first overall pick.