2018 Draft Thread #6

Red Larrivee · Post #101 » by **Red Larrivee** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:54 am

League Circles wrote:Dumb question, but by that do you mean Young can't defend?

Saying he can't defend is probably putting it nicely.

League Circles · Post #102 » by **League Circles** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:00 am

Red Larrivee wrote:
League Circles wrote:Dumb question, but by that do you mean Young can't defend?

Saying he can't defend is probably putting it nicely.

Damn, can't say it surprises me. I've almost never seen a player that size be a good defender. I had only focused on his offense when I watched a little of him.

Man, this draft is really only super appealing to me for these 3 or 4 guys now:

Doncic
Ayton
JJJ
Bagley

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League Circles · Post #103 » by **League Circles** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:04 am

I can see JJJ absolutely shutting down SFs that he's defending, if he plays on a unit where it makes sense for him to defend the 3, while playing bigger on offense.

Post #104 » by **AshyLarrysDiaper** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:08 am

From a scouting standpoint, who would you rather see in the tournament: Oklahoma or Texas? It won't be both. May be neither.

At this point I'd rather see another game or two of Bamba than Young.

DanTown8587 · Post #105 » by **DanTown8587** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:35 am

Scouting with stats is a dangerous game because in college, you can literally be dominant in a way that the NBA will never allow. How many times has a guy like Beasley gone top five the past decade and simply not panned out? Bennett, Williams, etc are all that way. I don't see a guy like that in this group of guys. That's not to say that there won't be disappointments but those guys fell out of the league or didn't have success because they didn't have enough versatility to their game.

Rose2Boozer · Post #106 » by **Rose2Boozer** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:44 am

League Circles wrote:If we get Bagley, who do you guys see defending opposing centers more, him or Lauri?

Lauri

The Force. · Post #107 » by **The Force.** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:50 am

Right now it's looking like the Bulls are probably a lock for the 9/10 spot. I doubt we out-tank Brooklyn and no way we catch Memphis, Sacramento or Orlando. I'm assuming NY will take our spot by mid-March leaving us at 9. I doubt both Charlotte AND LA out-tank us but one of them definitely could. This leaves us smack dab in Knox/Bridges territory which frankly, isn't half bad considering we desperately need a SF. You then hope Williams falls to us with the Pel's pick. If by some miracle Bamba is on the board you take him and either Musa or Troy Brown with the Pel's pick.

ArizonaBullsFan · Post #108 » by **ArizonaBullsFan** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:59 am

I doubt we out-tank Brooklyn

It is quite literally 100% impossible to out-tank a team that isn't tanking in any way, shape or form.

Dresden · Post #109 » by **Dresden** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:07 am

For Trae: 3/13, 1/5. He is going to fall out of the top 10 pretty soon.

WindyCityBorn · Post #110 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:26 am

DanTown8587 wrote:
RSP83 wrote:Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

I don't get that analogy because Randle's main problem is that he's too small to play a small ball five but Bagley has the length to do so. Also, Bagley doesn't have the same straight line/lefty drive that Randle does but he plays much bigger at the rim than Randle does. If you gave Randle Bagley's size and athleticism, you'd be looking at a legit superstar.

I think people are starting to sleep on Bagley and are forgetting that draft picks is far more about how they project than how good that guy is today. I get that Bagley isn't where Ayton is today for example but drafts aren't about projecting today.

Bagley never projects to be better than Ayton at any point.

WindyCityBorn · Post #111 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:30 am

Young has been trending downside since conference play started. Would not be surprised to see him fall out of the top 7, but I don't want him here.

The Force. · Post #112 » by **The Force.** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:43 am

ArizonaBullsFan wrote:
I doubt we out-tank Brooklyn

It is quite literally 100% impossible to out-tank a team that isn't tanking in any way, shape or form.

Inadvertently tanking.

Rose2Boozer · Post #113 » by **Rose2Boozer** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:42 am

AshyLarrysDiaper wrote:From a scouting standpoint, who would you rather see in the tournament: Oklahoma or Texas? It won't be both. May be neither.

At this point I'd rather see another game or two of Bamba than Young.

I'd say Oklahoma, just because I'd be more interested in seeing Young play on that stage compared to Bamba. I've seen enough of Bamba this season, and his question marks are more long term. It's mostly about strength and conditioning for Bamba going forward. As far as Young is concerned , it's always good to see how point guards adapt to the heightened tournament intensity.

RSP83 · Post #114 » by **RSP83** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:18 am

DanTown8587 wrote:
RSP83 wrote:Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

I don't get that analogy because Randle's main problem is that he's too small to play a small ball five but Bagley has the length to do so. Also, Bagley doesn't have the same straight line/lefty drive that Randle does but he plays much bigger at the rim than Randle does. If you gave Randle Bagley's size and athleticism, you'd be looking at a legit superstar.

I think people are starting to sleep on Bagley and are forgetting that draft picks is far more about how they project than how good that guy is today. I get that Bagley isn't where Ayton is today for example but drafts aren't about projecting today.

the comparison to Randle is not a direct comparison, although I don't know whether that's what the Ringer's hosts meant to say or not, but I don't see it as a direct comparison. What I'm comparing is that Randle can't play small ball C like a Horford, lacks the range to stretch the floor like a modern 4, while he can dribble and pretty shifty for his size he lack skills to play Point-4 like a Draymond Green or James Johnson. I guess that's what's called a tweener right? in today's game? (definition of tweener was different in the 90s).

I see similar problem with Bagley, I'm not sure if Center is going to be his position in the NBA, because that's not his game on offense. On defense, he's not really known as an interior defender. And it's rare to develop defensive awareness suddenly in the NBA, especially interior defense, it's usually instincts. Shot blockers just has a knack for it, they possess natural timing and positioning. I don't see this in Bagley. As a modern NBA 4 he has potential, this is where I think he has the best chance to be successful, but how does he fit as a 4 in modern NBA game? his 3 point shot is still work in progress, his game is more mid-range. His length and athleticism alone won't be enough. He does have some skills with the ball, but sort of meh as well, shaky ball-handling and ok passer (not CWebb type passing ability and court vision). I agree that Bagley is in a much better position than Randle, but he's difficult to project in today's game... he's not in Anthony Davis mold, is he going to better than KP? is he going to stretch the floor like KP, KLove, or our very own Markkanen? This is a league now where Lebron and KD plays 4 as well.

Of course we are projecting for the future, but Kwame Brown was supposed to be a perennial All-Star as well judging by potential.

kodo · Post #115 » by **kodo** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:06 am

Dresden wrote:For Trae: 3/13, 1/5. He is going to fall out of the top 10 pretty soon.

I don't think he was ever going to go very high when the draft order was set...not due to stats but because so few teams need a PG.

Atlanta has Schroeder.
Dallas has DSJ.
Kings have Fox.
Memphis has Conley and they're not blowing it up.
I don't think we'd draft Trae, a Trae-Dunn-Lavine perimeter has a lot of issues.
NY has Frank.
Sixers have Fultz and Simmons really runs point anyway.
Charlotte has Kemba.

It would have to be Cleveland if Lebron leaves and they go full rebuild from scratch.
Or Charlotte blowing it all up and trading Kemba as rumored.

Suns could use him the most but I think they'll draft too high to consider him, they'll probably take Ayton or the best big available like JJJ.

UcanUwill · Post #116 » by **UcanUwill** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:43 am

RSP83 wrote:Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

He reminds me a big of Thomas Robinson. I really dont buy Bagley hype. I am way higher on young than most people here.

UcanUwill · Post #117 » by **UcanUwill** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:47 am

Red Larrivee wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:If Michael Beasley the college prospect was in this draft, I'd have him as a top pick as well. He had all the talent in the world to be a star NBA player. Sometimes things just don't come together at the NBA level for a myriad of reasons.

I think the other point is that great college numbers don't necessarily equal great NBA players. Sure, you'd prefer to see a player producing well, but the idea is to project traits before numbers. Not much is said by saying "Oh, Player X is one of 3 players to put up stats like this in the last 20 years and the other two players became all-stars."

For instance, here's the numbers of a 19-year-old, five-star recruit freshman about six years ago:

16.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, .533/.375/.701 (.609 TS%) shooting line in 27.1 mpg.

Per 40, that rounds out to:

23.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks.

Sounds like a great talent right?

Spoiler:
Anthony Bennett

Man, and some people act like college players are more proven than ones in the Euroleague...

Benedict Miller · Post #118 » by **Benedict Miller** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:24 am

UcanUwill wrote:
RSP83 wrote:Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

He reminds me a big of Thomas Robinson. I really dont buy Bagley hype. I am way higher on young than most people here.

How does Bagley remind you of Thomas Robinson, may I ask?

RSP83 · Post #119 » by **RSP83** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:44 am

GimmeDat wrote:If Michael Beasley the college prospect was in this draft, I'd have him as a top pick as well. He had all the talent in the world to be a star NBA player. Sometimes things just don't come together at the NBA level for a myriad of reasons.

I remember Beasley put up that monster number in Kansas State, just a year after KD put up similar monster stat in Texas. And KD's scoring ability translated in the NBA, so I thought at the time, Beasley will be the same. I thought at least Beas was going to be a more rugged version of Melo, cause Beas dominated the glass in college. That Derrick Rose draft class was supposed to be one of the best since Lebron's. Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, KLove, Eric Gordon. Gordon really surprised me, I really liked him in college, but he's injury prone early in his career, he's finally making it in Houston.

GameBredAPBT · Post #120 » by **GameBredAPBT** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:52 am

DanTown8587 wrote:Scouting with stats is a dangerous game because in college, you can literally be dominant in a way that the NBA will never allow. How many times has a guy like Beasley gone top five the past decade and simply not panned out? Bennett, Williams, etc are all that way. I don't see a guy like that in this group of guys. That's not to say that there won't be disappointments but those guys fell out of the league or didn't have success because they didn't have enough versatility to their game.

BS. Mike Beasley had no success because he had no work ethic