NBA Draft and NCAA Basketball

darealjuice · Post #1741 » by **darealjuice** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:16 am

Mulhollanddrive wrote:This is just for fun but last time there was a top 7 was the 2013 draft:

Bagley - Bennett
Doncic - Oladipo
Porter - Porter
Ayton - Zeller
Jackson - Len
Bamba - Noel
Young - McLemore

Everyone knew that draft sucked. People were calling it the worst draft since 2000 before the draft.

sunsbum · Post #1742 » by **sunsbum** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:17 am

No deal on Jackson when Kawhi has this potentially bad mystery injury. At this point with the progress I've seen after 25 games josh and book are rowing the same untouchable boat.

Josh has made more improvement than Booker did over his first season. Forget it. Foooooooorrrrget it.

darealjuice · Post #1743 » by **darealjuice** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:36 am

bwgood77 wrote:What is your general feel of the draft ranges of these players?

I figure Doncic and Ayton are 1-3. Bagley 1-6. Porter 3-7.

And then the others in the 4-7 range. Young is a wildcard though and I won't be that surprised wherever he goes.

Tough call. There's still a lot of time for things to shake up, especially with conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments coming up.

I think you're right about Doncic and Ayton. Doncic is one of the most proven prospects I can remember, and it's tough to see more than one team passing on Ayton's potential to be dominant on both ends knowing he's well on the way on offense.

Young is probably my top 3 dark horse. Even with his bad shooting his TS% in conference play is higher than Fultz last year, and he's still averaging 28/9/4 on the season. He's also doing it against the toughest schedule in college basketball according to KenPom, so he's about as tested as college prospects get.

Porter is a wild card right now. If he comes back playing as well as expected and looks healthy, knocks out his private workouts, and has good medical records, then it's not hard to see him going in the top 3 like he was projected. I don't think he drops too far unless his medical records are terrible though, his potential is too high and the scouting process for these teams starts well before college.

Bagley could go anywhere. He's very young, extremely productive and efficient, and looks like he could develop a 3-point shot, but you could also make an argument that he's a bit of a 4/5 tweener, his defensive impact is toward the worst of big men at the top of the draft, and his offensive skill set is the least likely to translate to the NBA. If he measures out and shoots the 3 well come draft workouts a team could easily fall in love with him.

Not sure about Bamba and JJJ. They're both strong rim protectors that have shown improvements in their offensive game over the season, but still have a ways to go on that end. I don't know if they're strong enough to bang with NBA centers yet either, and that might deter some teams. I wouldn't think they're top 3 guys right now, but then again I believe ESPN has Bamba at #3 so I could definitely be wrong.

NTB · Post #1744 » by **NTB** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:34 am

I think Doncic and Ayton is definitely 1-2 and the rest of the top 7 is 3-7.

cberry78 · Post #1745 » by **cberry78** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:49 am

I haven't seen these 2 compared, but which do you think is the better prospect? A or B?

POS PF PF
YR Fr Fr
HT 6'11" 6'10"
WT 220 lbs 257 lbs
WING 7'1" 7'3"
AGE 18 yrs 18 yrs
GAMES 24 28
MINUTES 32.8 27.4

STATS BELOW ARE PER-36-MINUTES
PTS 23.2 19.1
REB 12.5 12.5
AST 1.8 2.6
BKS 1.2 2.9
ST 1.1 0.8
TO 2.7 2.6
FG 8.9-15.0 6.9-11.9
FG% .596 .585
3P 0.8-2.2 0.8-1.7
3P% .354 .500
FT 4.6-7.5 4.4-6.1
FT% .620 .715
TS% .628 .647
EFG% .622 .621
USG% 27.1 22.7
OWS/40 .173 .162
DWS/40 .076 .089
WS/40 .249 .250
OBPM 7.5 6.8
DBPM 2.8 6.8
BPM 10.3 13.6

janmagn · Post #1746 » by **janmagn** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:23 am

cberry78 wrote:I haven't seen these 2 compared, but which do you think is the better prospect? A or B?

POS PF PF
YR Fr Fr
HT 6'11" 6'10"
WT 220 lbs 257 lbs
WING 7'1" 7'3"
AGE 18 yrs 18 yrs
GAMES 24 28
MINUTES 32.8 27.4

STATS BELOW ARE PER-36-MINUTES
PTS 23.2 19.1
REB 12.5 12.5
AST 1.8 2.6
BKS 1.2 2.9
ST 1.1 0.8
TO 2.7 2.6
FG 8.9-15.0 6.9-11.9
FG% .596 .585
3P 0.8-2.2 0.8-1.7
3P% .354 .500
FT 4.6-7.5 4.4-6.1
FT% .620 .715
TS% .628 .647
EFG% .622 .621
USG% 27.1 22.7
OWS/40 .173 .162
DWS/40 .076 .089
WS/40 .249 .250
OBPM 7.5 6.8
DBPM 2.8 6.8
BPM 10.3 13.6

Without comparing their athleticism and competition, I'll take B.

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NavLDO · Post #1747 » by **NavLDO** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:50 am

darealjuice wrote:I still haven't quite jumped on board the "JJJ as a Top 3 Prospect" train yet. It feels like we'd be taking another project on. His efficiency on offense has been elite, it's just the way he scores doesn't make me feel like he has a very developed game on that end. I also feel like he hasn't done it against top competition, as he has scored 5 points or under in 3 of their 4 matchups against ranked teams this year, and the game he scored 19 against #1 Duke was a pre-season tournament game where Bagley got injured mid-way through the first half.

The release on his shot isn't too bad, but I think he's only going to be a spot-up shooter until he figures out how to shoot without leaning and jumping forward like 2 feet. He gets a ton of wide open shots with that team, and I've seen his form get really thrown off when he doesn't have a good amount of space to shoot. He's also only made 3 unassisted jump shots all season according to hoop-math, so he probably isn't the most comfortable pulling up off the dribble when he gets chased off the 3 point line. I do like that he's shown a little bit of handle and slashing from the mid-range/perimeter, but I've rarely seen him do anything that wasn't straight line driving left with a spin back to his right to shoot when he can't get directly to the rim. I don't doubt that he can develop an offensive game, just that he's probably going to be more spot up shooting and energy plays for the first few years on that end.

His upside on defense is huge though. That combination of length, mobility, and shot blocking is only matched by Bamba for potential centers. However, his rebounding rate worries me compared to the other big men, especially considering our big men aren't great rebounders either, and I don't like that his foul problems have been a big reason why he's not able to be on the court more than 22 minutes per game. I like him a lot for a project and wouldn't shy away from drafting him if he was the best option left on the board, but sometimes it almost seems like people here feel like JJJ will have a smooth transition because his dad was a pro and Booker's dad was also a pro.

I know what you are saying, but read this article and it might put your mind at ease...

--ONE long-2 all year?
--Best TS% with lowest 2PT ATR? 3PT + FTs
--Umm...Defense...outside to inside...

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/2/6/16976438/jaren-jackson-jr-best-big-man-draft

He's versatile, is what this article is saying. I think it's hard to pin down anything he does well EXCEPT for being an insane shot blocker...which is scary. But apparently, his shooting form is on purpose and here to stay...and oh...it works.

So, while I agree with you, I also read through this article, and a lot of it makes sense. But TBH, I'd have a heck of a hard time selecting him over Ayton, and he's about on par with Bagley for me (but that's me; many have JJJ ahead of Bagley now).

But if McD took JJJ, I wouldn't be surprised; it's his MO--highly-developmental, high-ceiling types. I'm not sure if he has time for that, though, IMO. I think he needs to win this year, so if I'm him, I'm taking a contributor from day one, and that's Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, or, Miles Bridges (PF), Carter, and leaving Young, JJJ, and maybe even Bamba for other teams to develop. Shot-blocking is nice; scoring is better. If you want Blocked shots, get Gafford or Robert Williams with the Miami pick.

NavLDO · Post #1748 » by **NavLDO** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:23 am

bwgood77 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:I think this recent stretch does drop Young unless he can ball out for this final stretch. Partly because I don't think he had risen as much for teams as he had with some draft sites and with fans. Teams have scouting reports on these guys since high school so a guy like him who was ranked in the 20's for his class coming in teams will put some stock into that and when I guy shoots up the boards I think they sometimes try to find reasons doubt that rise; this stretch is giving them those reasons and confirmation on their original thoughts on him.

Now it only takes one team desperate for a PG to fall in love with what he does well and draft him around the 5-7 range but it wouldn't shock me if he went closer to 10 than 5 at this point.

The very best the Suns could hope for with the Miami pick is probably around 12 (they finish 9th in the East and two non-playoff teams in the West are better). I doubt he makes it there but I don't think it's completely impossible.

Most everywhere I've looked had him more at like 6-7, but the thing is, Collin Sexton has dropped more and no other pgs have been terribly impressive. Even comparing side by side you can see he still has by far the highest 3pt fg%....Sexton down at 32% and the other guys don't really shoot them much...very low volume.

By far the best TS%, the most assists...now some can point out he has the most turnovers, but still a better ast/to ratio than Sexton and Gilgeous-Alexander. Duval has a slightly better one but he passes less and shoots 27% from 3.

For the comparison... http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?preset=top-pg

So for a team that wants a PG, he should be ranked the highest, not counting Doncic. I think Orlando and Cleveland probably takes PGs, so it depends on where we draft and who we want.

There is a lot to determine for us watching these prospects down the stretch and also watching Payton. I'd be pretty shocked though if McD ever had Young higher than 7, unless he just had a wide tier there and was going to go for need and before getting Payton would have taken him atop his second tier (wherever that started).

I am still hesitant taking Bamba over him...and don't think I'd take Carter over him. I think I like the likely C's there at the Miami pick than the PGs.

But when you compare him to upperclassmen PG...

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=devonte-graham--aaron-holiday--shake-milton--landry-shamet--trae-young

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=grayson-allen--jalen-brunson--jevon-carter--tra-holder--trae-young

You see he doesn't fair as well, especially on the Defensive side.

I don't get the fascination with NBA Teams that downgrade 21YO kids for being, well, 21, when they are solid players and have shown as much throughout their career. Now, why didn't they go pro after their rookie year? Well, they didn't have a Trae Young year that vaulted them into the spot light, I'm assuming. And Trae Young will be 20 by the time he plays next year, so it's not like he's some uber-young talent.

With SGA, it's really about whether you want the big, defensive-type PG, or the Offensive, 'James Harden'-type of PG, I think. And hey, Harden's and All-Star, so...

Young could come in and blow it up, but I think he needs to go to a team with some established talent, already. If he ends up being the 'center of attention', well, we see what happens...his numbers plummet. So if the Cavs grab him with BKN's pick, that would likely be ideal for him.

For us?? I'd rather steer clear, the more I think about it. I think we should bring in two of those 8 above compared...and add in Tony Carr from Penn St. to that group, so 9, and see which one pans out.

Then with our 1st and Miami's 1st, we select 2 bigs...and if one is like a Diop or Miles Bridges type...6'7" PF-built type, that's fine...

If Young is BPA...like, at Miami's pick? Well, yeah, ok, let's not be stupid. But I'm saying, not to take young with a top 7 pick.

carey · Post #1749 » by **carey** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:47 pm

I kind of want Bamba so I can market my "Thanks, Mo Bamba!" stickers.

ImNotMcDiSwear · Post #1750 » by **ImNotMcDiSwear** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:04 pm

cberry78 wrote:I haven't seen these 2 compared, but which do you think is the better prospect? A or B?

POS PF PF
YR Fr Fr
HT 6'11" 6'10"
WT 220 lbs 257 lbs
WING 7'1" 7'3"
AGE 18 yrs 18 yrs
GAMES 24 28
MINUTES 32.8 27.4

STATS BELOW ARE PER-36-MINUTES
PTS 23.2 19.1
REB 12.5 12.5
AST 1.8 2.6
BKS 1.2 2.9
ST 1.1 0.8
TO 2.7 2.6
FG 8.9-15.0 6.9-11.9
FG% .596 .585
3P 0.8-2.2 0.8-1.7
3P% .354 .500
FT 4.6-7.5 4.4-6.1
FT% .620 .715
TS% .628 .647
EFG% .622 .621
USG% 27.1 22.7
OWS/40 .173 .162
DWS/40 .076 .089
WS/40 .249 .250
OBPM 7.5 6.8
DBPM 2.8 6.8
BPM 10.3 13.6

Is this Bagley vs Carter?

It's starting to look like I'm going to die alone atop Bagley mountain.

WeekapaugGroove · Post #1751 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:57 pm

NTB wrote:I think Doncic and Ayton is definitely 1-2 and the rest of the top 7 is 3-7.

Yeah I think this is where we're at although porter is the guy who could potentially jump into the top 2.

I'll be pretty shocked if doncic doesn't go 1st. He's easy to fit on any team and he looks ready to contribute day one.

ImNotMcDiSwear · Post #1752 » by **ImNotMcDiSwear** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:03 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
NTB wrote:I think Doncic and Ayton is definitely 1-2 and the rest of the top 7 is 3-7.

Yeah I think this is where we're at although porter is the guy who could potentially jump into the top 2.

I'll be pretty shocked if doncic doesn't go 1st. He's easy to fit on any team and he looks ready to contribute day one.

I agree. Doncic should go #1.

I could see Carter jumping into the top 7.

Wilber85 · Post #1753 » by **Wilber85** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:21 pm

ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
cberry78 wrote:I haven't seen these 2 compared, but which do you think is the better prospect? A or B?

POS PF PF
YR Fr Fr
HT 6'11" 6'10"
WT 220 lbs 257 lbs
WING 7'1" 7'3"
AGE 18 yrs 18 yrs
GAMES 24 28
MINUTES 32.8 27.4

STATS BELOW ARE PER-36-MINUTES
PTS 23.2 19.1
REB 12.5 12.5
AST 1.8 2.6
BKS 1.2 2.9
ST 1.1 0.8
TO 2.7 2.6
FG 8.9-15.0 6.9-11.9
FG% .596 .585
3P 0.8-2.2 0.8-1.7
3P% .354 .500
FT 4.6-7.5 4.4-6.1
FT% .620 .715
TS% .628 .647
EFG% .622 .621
USG% 27.1 22.7
OWS/40 .173 .162
DWS/40 .076 .089
WS/40 .249 .250
OBPM 7.5 6.8
DBPM 2.8 6.8
BPM 10.3 13.6

Is this Bagley vs Carter?

It's starting to look like I'm going to die alone atop Bagley mountain.

Are you going to explain this or leave this as is?

darealjuice · Post #1754 » by **darealjuice** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:32 am

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22559284/sean-miller-arizona-christian-dawkins-discussed-payment-ensure-deandre-ayton-signing-according-fbi-investigation

Where my Zona fans at lol? Sean Miller on a wire talking 100K for Ayton, yikes.

DirtyDez · Post #1755 » by **DirtyDez** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:36 am

Deuces, Sean... Dueces.

Mulhollanddrive · Post #1756 » by **Mulhollanddrive** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:57 am

Is there any chance anyone Ayton will be disqualified from the draft?

RunDogGun · Post #1757 » by **RunDogGun** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:58 am

darealjuice wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22559284/sean-miller-arizona-christian-dawkins-discussed-payment-ensure-deandre-ayton-signing-according-fbi-investigation

Where my Zona fans at lol? Sean Miller on a wire talking 100K for Ayton, yikes.

I saw this, does it in turn affect Ayton and/or the upcoming draft.

darealjuice · Post #1758 » by **darealjuice** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:03 am

Doubt it impacts his draft status or stock at all, but I don't think there's much precedent for the upcoming scandal either.

WeekapaugGroove · Post #1759 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:10 am

Mulhollanddrive wrote:Is there any chance anyone Ayton will be disqualified from the draft?

No. NBA teams don't give a **** if a guy takes the bag in college. Tons of guys do.

Now it might end aytons college career but he'll just start prepping for the draft.

Post #1760 » by **ATTL** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:19 am

Sucks for the wildcats, i was really looking forward to watching them in march madness.
This wont hurt ayton at all.

I wish they would market the hell out of gleague to make it a true minor league, push it to the 18 year olds so they don't go to school since they don't care about school.

Who would you take at 3 if Ayton/Doncic gone?