The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[nurseryc]

I think I gave due credit to Simmons in my post - he’s spectacular. Especially on the defensive end. DM’s performance was not spectacular against the Blazers but he certainly wasn’t the worst and 8 from 20 isn’t the worst stat line for a SG rook who’s trying to carry the offense.

I just think that if the Jazz make the playoffs - and they’d need to win at least 43 imo it will be mostly because of DM and NOBODY expected them to make it after losing Hayward. If the 76ers win about 44 and sneak in then it would be because of Simmons but more so Embiid. And I think many expected them to break through this year.

So that’s my argument and you’re welcome to disagree. Of course I made my point assuming similar trajectory of win totals and stats (with some elevation for the Jazz because of their recent run)

Gobert and Ingles are chopped liver now? The Jazz winning streak coincided with the return of Gobert, who is a beast on the defensive end.

Yeah, right?

Gobert is the Jazz's MVP and the reason why they have been so hot lately.

Maybe not mvp but a huge factor and also the incredible emergence of Joe Ingles

[APettyJ]

On "scorer vs shooter": TS% is equal, whereas eFG% and FG% favor Simmons. So how is Mitchell better?

On ROTY race: Until last year, all ROTY since 1988 had been the leader in sum of PPG+RPG+APG, save 2003 when the top two were separated by 0.1 in their totals. It was crude, but a quick way to measure all-around effectiveness. The winner was not always the scoring champ among rookies neither. It's what makes Brogdan winning troubling, because there was no objective standard for him winning. Nonetheless, look at this race, if you go by the historical standard, the winner will be Simmons. If you go by the apparently more analytically-driven method used to choose Brogdan, I still don't see how Mitchell beats Simmons. Nevermind Simmons' team not only is ahead of the Jazz in record and even in being in the playoffs, and nevermind in the past ROTY team being in playoffs was not a criteria used before, consider Simmons BEAT Mitchell twice this year, once IN Utah WITHOUT Embiid.

Mitchell is nice, but save for people not wanting to give Sam Hinkie his due, how is this a "race"? That's the reason I choose for last year's race too, when they decided to go against three decades-worth of history.

[bebopdeluxe]

On "scorer vs shooter": TS% is equal, whereas eFG% and FG% favor Simmons. So how is Mitchell better?

On ROTY race: Until last year, all ROTY since 1988 had been the leader in sum of PPG+RPG+APG, save 2003 when the top two were separated by 0.1 in their totals. It was crude, but a quick way to measure all-around effectiveness. The winner was not always the scoring champ among rookies neither. It's what makes Brogdan winning troubling, because there was no objective standard for him winning. Nonetheless, look at this race, if you go by the historical standard, the winner will be Simmons. If you go by the apparently more analytically-driven method used to choose Brogdan, I still don't see how Mitchell beats Simmons. Nevermind Simmons' team not only is ahead of the Jazz in record and even in being in the playoffs, and nevermind in the past ROTY team being in playoffs was not a criteria used before, consider Simmons BEAT Mitchell twice this year, once IN Utah WITHOUT Embiid.

Mitchell is nice, but save for people not wanting to give Sam Hinkie his due, how is this a "race"? That's the reason I choose for last year's race too, when they decided to go against three decades-worth of history.

In most years, Mitchell would get the ROY.

This is not one of those years.

Nice point about head-to-head. Forgot about that.

I really do think that if Mitchell wins - after Brogdon beat Saric last season - it would be clear that voters simply HATE the fact that "The Process" seems to be working, and they want to ignore virtually every criteria - both raw "counting stats", advanced analytical data, and simple "scoreboard" analysis of team success. To be honest, I think that Simmons is going to win the award...but I would not be surprised if he gets screwed.

[Alex DeLarge]

Nice numbers, Ben...but how about making a FT down the stretch?

This aged well.

And where did I say he couldn't do it?

I'm an Australian. I want to see Simmons succeed.

I asked and he delivered. Fair play to him. These are the kinds of plays he needs to make throughout his career if he is to fulfil his potential. He can't continue to be a 50% FT shooter while being a primary ball handler.

You Sixers fans really need to get off the high horse.

[michaelm]

Nice numbers, Ben...but how about making a FT down the stretch?

This aged well.

And where did I say he couldn't do it?

I'm an Australian. I want to see Simmons succeed.

I asked and he delivered. Fair play to him. These are the kinds of plays he needs to make throughout his career if he is to fulfil his potential. He can't continue to be a 50% FT shooter while being a primary ball handler.

You Sixers fans really need to get off the high horse.

Sure, if he wants to be a top 5 or 10 player in the league, which he himself says he does, of course he has to improve his FT percentage.

In the context of ROTY, which I believe this thread concerns, if his team keeps winning and he is capable of hitting clutch free throws to aid them doing so then your argument seems to me to be similar to those who take Mitchell to task for his poor efficiency while his team keeps winning with him making clutch baskets in the 4th quarter.

[SkyHookFTW]

To me it's fairly simple at this point: Simmons is the clearly better overall player and I doubt that changes.

[bebopdeluxe]

Watching the Magic game tonight...Sixers down 15-6 when Ben basically said enough of that ish and started KILLING Jonathan Simmons.

We talk a lot around here about Mitchell’s offensive toolbox, and justifiably so. But a mixtape of Ben scoring the ball would be pretty dope too. You get lost in the overall skill package...the defensive chops. But the man can also SCORE THE BALL.

[_Joker]

Simmons' play is so smooth, he sells so much candy and can just step by his opponent

[downtownpie]

I love these "eye test" arguments for Mitchell...almost as much as the ROY buzz that Mitchell gets after his dunk in Rising Stars game (the game where he scored in single digits while Simmons pollutes the stat sheet).

Dude shot 8-for-20 last night, which passes my "eye test" of his typical box score. Pretty much forgettble numbers other than his scoring as well - as well as his 1-to-2 AST/TO ratio.

Between these "eye test" comments and references to "if the Jazz make the playoffs DM is the ROY", I wonder what the Sixers have to do as a team to offset this narrative. 4 seed? 50 wins?

I think I gave due credit to Simmons in my post - he’s spectacular. Especially on the defensive end. DM’s performance was not spectacular against the Blazers but he certainly wasn’t the worst and 8 from 20 isn’t the worst stat line for a SG rook who’s trying to carry the offense.

I just think that if the Jazz make the playoffs - and they’d need to win at least 43 imo it will be mostly because of DM and NOBODY expected them to make it after losing Hayward. If the 76ers win about 44 and sneak in then it would be because of Simmons but more so Embiid. And I think many expected them to break through this year.

So that’s my argument and you’re welcome to disagree. Of course I made my point assuming similar trajectory of win totals and stats (with some elevation for the Jazz because of their recent run)

Gobert and Ingles are chopped liver now? The Jazz winning streak coincided with the return of Gobert, who is a beast on the defensive end.

ssshhhhh. that doesnt fit the narative.

[michaelm]

Six rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to go with the 25 points and +16 for Mitchell tonight. He certainly would be a worthy ROTY, and his potential for aspects other than scoring may be high as well.

[Tomjas]

Watching the Magic game tonight...Sixers down 15-6 when Ben basically said enough of that ish and started KILLING Jonathan Simmons.

We talk a lot around here about Mitchell’s offensive toolbox, and justifiably so. But a mixtape of Ben scoring the ball would be pretty dope too. You get lost in the overall skill package...the defensive chops. But the man can also SCORE THE BALL.

IM completely worthless O, his biggest weakness this season was not the jumper but his passiveness for a few weeks on the offensive end

Given his skill set, he’s simply too big to be guarded by the vast majority of guards and too fast for the big men

Subject to injury, his floor is something like 20/8/8 with arguably elite defence

Add a serviceable jumper and fts (both of which are improving) and you have an incredible prospect

[bebopdeluxe]

Six rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to go with the 25 points and +16 for Mitchell tonight. He certainly would be a worthy ROTY, and his potential for aspects other than scoring may be high as well.

Maybe. He’s 6’3” - so consistently high rebounds probably aren’t in the cards, or blocks. But he could be a 5 assist guy with 1-2 steals a game. That would be solid. He will be limited by his sheer size on the defensive side of the ball - if I were an opposing coach I would run a ton of perimeter switches and see if I can get a big wing to bully him or take him down to the block. He is lucky to be on a team with an elite rim protector like Gobert. One advantage that AI had during his prime years is he had Ratliff and Mutumbo behind him, as well as other perimeter defenders who could allow him to usehis athleticism to gamble for steals. Mitchell is bigger than Iverson, but he’s not as big as Wade or Kobe or other scoring SG’s.

I definitely understand that the Jazz need him to take 20 shots a game to win, and they will live with 40% as long as he hits enough from 3. He also played 37 minutes tonight (Ben only played 28). It will be interesting to see if he hits the wall over the next few weeks playing all of these high-leverage 4th quarter minutes, having to be the guy to score the ball.

[vossy_3]

Six rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to go with the 25 points and +16 for Mitchell tonight. He certainly would be a worthy ROTY, and his potential for aspects other than scoring may be high as well.

Shot the ball well early, but Mitchell's 4th qtr was awful.

Some really awkward looking shots and sloppy ball handling nearly cost the Jazz the win against a very bad Mavs team.

[michaelm]

Six rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to go with the 25 points and +16 for Mitchell tonight. He certainly would be a worthy ROTY, and his potential for aspects other than scoring may be high as well.

Shot the ball well early, but Mitchell's 4th qtr was awful.

Some really awkward looking shots and sloppy ball handling nearly cost the Jazz the win against a very bad Mavs team.

Obviously I only saw the box score and didn’t watch the game, but am trying to be fair about ROTY despite being a Simmons fan.

[Catchall]

Six rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to go with the 25 points and +16 for Mitchell tonight. He certainly would be a worthy ROTY, and his potential for aspects other than scoring may be high as well.

Shot the ball well early, but Mitchell's 4th qtr was awful.

Some really awkward looking shots and sloppy ball handling nearly cost the Jazz the win against a very bad Mavs team.

In any case, Mitchell was the leading scorer in the game and the best player on the floor. It's pretty rare for a rookie to lead his team to the playoffs, if that's indeed what happens.

[downtownpie]

Read on Twitter

[LordCovington33]

Read on Twitter

It would be a bit weird if Simmons does not get the award given his historic all-round stats. However, I wouldn't mind too much. It didn't hurt Embiid any. In fact, if he doesn't get it, it might light a flame under his butt and work even harder on developing a reliable jumpshot to prove his doubters wrong. He has also picked up his game after the All Star snub. Might make him even hungrier.

[vossy_3]

Six rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to go with the 25 points and +16 for Mitchell tonight. He certainly would be a worthy ROTY, and his potential for aspects other than scoring may be high as well.

Shot the ball well early, but Mitchell's 4th qtr was awful.

Some really awkward looking shots and sloppy ball handling nearly cost the Jazz the win against a very bad Mavs team.

In any case, Mitchell was the leading scorer in the game and the best player on the floor. It's pretty rare for a rookie to lead his team to the playoffs, if that's indeed what happens.

Jazz will not make the playoffs....

There a couple games back with a tough 2 coming up. They also looked really average against pretty bad Mavs team.

Credit also needs to go to Ingles tonight who was far and away the most important player for the Jazz. Quin assigned him to Barea who was killing it and totally shut him down.

DM was good early but Ingles really won them the game.

[downtownpie]

Read on Twitter

It would be a bit weird if Simmons does not get the award given his historic all-round stats. However, I wouldn't mind too much. It didn't hurt Embiid any. In fact, if he doesn't get it, it might light a flame under his butt and work even harder on developing a reliable jumpshot to prove his doubters wrong. He has also picked up his game after the All Star snub. Might make him even hungrier.

From that tweet Simmons is the only player in the nba with min 900/400/400/100/50.

Thats just ridiculous and can't be right.

[Sixersftw]

It would be a bit weird if Simmons does not get the award given his historic all-round stats. However, I wouldn't mind too much. It didn't hurt Embiid any. In fact, if he doesn't get it, it might light a flame under his butt and work even harder on developing a reliable jumpshot to prove his doubters wrong. He has also picked up his game after the All Star snub. Might make him even hungrier.

I kinda don't want him to get it. He's been a savage since the All-Star snub and I'd love to get that kinda motivation going into the offseason.