Luka Doncic part II

[Alatan]

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

That is a simple summary of how i see Doncic in the NBA.

Linking 3 opponents and assist for open three. Not bad.

Switching will kill his offense as he is not able to beat even taller players of the dribble and other defenders will stick to their guys looking for the pass. His shot is also not good enough as he doesnt transfer momentum smoothly and his shot is a bit flat. He will be a ok/good starter but i dont expect much more.

[No-Man]

Have you seen the spacing (lack there of) in that play? in Europe is quite common still to try to involve bigs in mid-range, either mid or high post, and not be completely open, like compare that with 95% of NBA offense, he would've had enough space to a) get to the rim with a screen b) pull-up

[Nikson]

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

That is a simple summary of how i see Doncic in the NBA.

Linking 3 opponents and assist for open three. Not bad.

Switching will kill his offense as he is not able to beat even taller players of the dribble and other defenders will stick to their guys looking for the pass. His shot is also not good enough as he doesnt transfer momentum smoothly and his shot is a bit flat. He will be a ok/good starter but i dont expect much more.

You mean he will have more space and only one defender to beat, or?
It is a miracle he has any success in Euroleague at all. How good is he in Euroleague if you compare him only to his generation boys born in 1999 and younger? Let’s put older grown man out of this comparation as most of them are surely better than him.

[Memgrizz0]

He plays in about 10 minutes if anyone wants to watch.

http://www.sportingvideo1.com/20180301/vv5a97396209dbf3.85940695-1916981.html

[Alatan]

Linking 3 opponents and assist for open three. Not bad.

Switching will kill his offense as he is not able to beat even taller players of the dribble and other defenders will stick to their guys looking for the pass. His shot is also not good enough as he doesnt transfer momentum smoothly and his shot is a bit flat. He will be a ok/good starter but i dont expect much more.

You mean he will have more space and only one defender to beat, or?
It is a miracle he has any success in Euroleague at all. How good is he in Euroleague if you compare him only to his generation boys born in 1999 and younger? Let’s put older grown man out of this comparation as most of them are surely better than him.

He has less space to work with but also plays with guys that are much slower to cover that space and are bad at defending in general.

[Nikson]

It is a miracle he has any success in Euroleague at all. How good is he in Euroleague if you compare him only to his generation boys born in 1999 and younger? Let’s put older grown man out of this comparation as most of them are surely better than him.

[Nikson]

Switching will kill his offense as he is not able to beat even taller players of the dribble and other defenders will stick to their guys looking for the pass. His shot is also not good enough as he doesnt transfer momentum smoothly and his shot is a bit flat. He will be a ok/good starter but i dont expect much more.

You mean he will have more space and only one defender to beat, or?
It is a miracle he has any success in Euroleague at all. How good is he in Euroleague if you compare him only to his generation boys born in 1999 and younger? Let’s put older grown man out of this comparation as most of them are surely better than him.

He has less space to work with but also plays with guys that are much slower to cover that space and are bad at defending in general.

You are right. Statement is incorrect. They are all bad.

[narcolepsy]

Very good first half vs Fener. Gorgeous fake on fastbreak for easy two points.

[burek3]

Yeah, no, fakes don't work in the NBA...

[Thespianoid]

lol did he really just try to draw a shooting foul at half court instead of getting a good final shot?

you're down 3, what you doin? at least get the best look you can

[burek3]

This was mega face palm O_o

[SportsGuy8]

Obradovic probably instructed his players to foul intentionally (they very often do that in Europe when up 3), that's why Doncic put up that shot, but his opponent tricked him, or better said pulled his hands away quickly enough.

[SeattleJazzFan]

you read this thread, you wouldn't even draft Doncic in the 2nd round. man, he's getting killed here.

[Nikson]

He, he..

Good lesson. Better now than in NBA finals.

[Thespianoid]

you read this thread, you wouldn't even draft Doncic in the 2nd round. man, he's getting killed here.

it's mostly just nitpicking.

there's so much film of him over the last two years, basically all that's left to discuss are micro things or rehashes of the same tired arguments.

[narcolepsy]

lol did he really just try to draw a shooting foul at half court instead of getting a good final shot?

you're down 3, what you doin? at least get the best look you can

Yeah that was super awkward. However there's another difference between NBA and European basketball here. If you're in this situation in Europe, the opposing team wont let you get a 3 point attempt. They'll foul you and send you to shoot FTs as soon as you get over the halfcourt.

For some reason in NBA teams just let opponents try to tie the game. I never understood that.

[Thespianoid]

But there's one thing to mention that is more valuable for discussion purposes: That everyone in this thread from someone who doesn't have a single right observation/perception about Euroleague to a random person who's apparently watching and following it for years, is making the mistake of holding Euroleague as a second division to the NBA rather than seeing it as a systematically way different extension of the same sport. Until you start to do the latter, your knowledge/information level on Euroleague really doesn't matter in the game translation discussions.

I've viewed Euroleague/European basketball as structurally very different from NBA basketball, due to court size/rules and systemic approach/priorities. Would you say that's an accurate surface level assessment?

*I'm not interested in watching any domestic cups that I wasn't able to watch through illness except that Fener-Efes game. But this last blowout RM win over Barca might be interesting with how bad Doncic looks from BS stats, would be worth a look if there are structural issues (re)surfacing on awful levels or if it's fatigue related as many claim here. I have a lot of catching up to do with everything basketball related lately, and need to PM two scouting reports on two players as it was an earlier promise to someone on this website which will take time, but still wanna watch that game to understand what is the case there, and if it's the former, might wanna do a film analysis on that as well if possible with my time as it could be the perfect game to showcase structural issues. But I know Olympiakos game is already worth a film look because of its accurate representation in a single game as much as possible. So below is that:

I'm excluding all the stuff I've already shown on the previous post in this thread obviously.

Plays are in chronological order. Just looking at the gifs without reading perhaps long descriptions/thoughts on the possessions is pretty useless in reading any film analysis imo, but read it however you wish obviously.

Spoiler:

Doncic is a player that has almost always good positioning on the weakside as he has here as well. He's also a player that has inherent problems in his close-out technique, sometimes he sucks at closing out because he's exhausted and plays terrible defense all game due to near non-existent effort, but that shouldn't mask flaws in close-out technique. Here he tries, but his technique allows the dribble drive which results in Milutinov FTs. It's something a defensive anchor can fix but he needs to be elite and it's harder to fix in the NBA due to differences in defensive rules and officiating. This to me, is an accurate possession reflecting on his inherent close-out technique problems.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Another classic Doncic possession. When the defender sits on his drive 1-on-1 and gives him the shot he never beats his defender to the rim. But he's never able to pull up immediately either. He's a capable pull-up shooter and has good handles if it is accepted that his carries are not gonna be called (and in the current NBA, it won't even as a rookie) but he needs to improve his yo-yo dribble. It's bad and potentially can cause trouble against disruptive defenders. Here it does. Ideally watching some Oscar tape would be great, or actually any great ball handler from 60s and 70s because of the dribbling rules back then. Magic is also great as he fits in the height + lead ball handler role combo as well with Doncic's game. He doesn't need improvement with getting low with the dribble, as shown just above in that missed 3 against K-Pap as well, but needs vast improvement with yo-yo dribble.
Its badness not only creates a near TOV here, but also his inability in that regard causes him to not pull-up immediately in that giving space possessions and reset himself and his handles to attack in a less favorable position. And the near-TOV comes here after that reset and attacking from a less favorable position against a disruptive defender.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Not all that much related to him, this one. An example of the effect of the slightly closer 3pt line and the def. 3 seconds rule compared to NBA. Lane is more crowded, Luka finds a drive opening on the switch on Milutinov's left but Printezis is able to get there immediately and then even close out to Thompkins. This is on Thompkins as much as the closer 3pt line (admittedly not even sure 3pt line plays that much of a role in here as Thompkins stands quite further back, it may just have a very minor effect because of other 2 shooters) + def 3 secs rule because that is simply poor court positioning. That's such a bad spot to stand. All other 4 Real players have good court positioning on the court, his mistake in court placement arguably costs the possession. He needs to be much closer to the corner.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

I've talked about it a few times here, has big issues navigating through screens. A simple off-ball Printezis screen leaves him behind his defender here, but RM switches these all the time now as they did here and gets rid of the issue at least for off-ball screens. Doncic's ability to stay on bigs for the remainder of a possession with size is valuable but both teammates are less aware of these things and necessary adjustments, and also NBA coaches take more time to figure these things out and a lot of them don't care/try to/focus on making adjustments like these. This consistent adjustment is a European Xs-and-Os thing, Luka can hope to find an NBA coaching staff and teammates that are willing to make regular season adjustments like these and have good awareness of these in the NBA. But there are quite a lot of them that won't, even if he mentions it himself to coaching staff explicitly like "I suck at navigating through screens so can we switch at least off-ball ones all the time" that's just a tactical difference in Europe and the NBA.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This looks like a handles issue that is not. At first glance it looks like that but upon a slower review, his hip and lower body doesn't generate enough power to step back after the forward momentum. Do a 90 minute lower body workout heavy on squats and then try this move on a defender after the workout immediately. Same thing will happen. The issue isn't ball handling here.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Can't speak to if anything is wrong with body mechanics here but has good lowness during the attack here. Can't pull-off that Bodiroga move as Milutinov completely sits on the pump fake and has to reset the offense back. Crowded lane doesn't do any favors him here and Milutinov's defense. But it's a negative. Had good lowness when attacking, maybe other things are wrong in his body mechanics. But definitely this is also related to inability of one-two finishes. But good perimeter defending bigs can shut him down in these possessions as long as they have the awareness against that Bodiroga move. Vesely did this against Doncic a couple times as well.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Another usual Doncic possession. Another laggy gif, sorry. Tavares' length bothers Spanoulis and forces the bad pass but this is a rotation he makes a lot. Radoncic is jailed and his man is available for the pass and the bucket, Doncic makes the rotation to get in front of him & create a TOV/force a miss as Radoncic is able to switch to Doncic's man. Tavares' length makes those things unnecessary in this possession but he creates TOVs this way not so rarely.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This miss is interesting. The front rimming may show exhaustion and lack of power on lower body to most people. But it's actually quite knowingly done. On a previous possession you can remember how he had a TOV because of lack of power generation by lower body. And I mentioned going through a squat heavy, tough lower body workout and doing the move would cause the same for a lot of people. Basketball is an instinctual game, these kind of adjustments are usually done by players preconsciously or subconsciously not consciously. Even though the player can spot what he's done in the game tape, it doesn't happen consciously.
So I think Luka uses the split legs and that final single dribble to disallow the same situation that happened earlier, meaning losing the ball because his lower body doesn't generate enough power on the stepback after the move to the front. So there's not a radical move up and down on the stepback here, split legs and that final single dribble eases the transition but those adjustments themselves will make you make front rim the shot. Like, the adjustment is done because of lack of power generation by the lower body, but even if there was that power, if you execute this move this way exactly, you'd front rim the shot more than likely.
So the lack of power generation here is both not at all the reason and also the reason for front rimming the shot. It depends on whether you are asking the indirect reason that causes it, or the direct reason (movement) that causes it.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This is what happens here: Doncic drives, but Printezis helps one pass away and is on his drive path. So he passes to his man. But Printezis closes out fast. One pass aways are punished more in the NBA due to a more open halfcourt game. And guys like Harden and Doncic who pass to the even slightly open shooter are rewarded more in the NBA (or current NBA at least) and punished to usually reset the offense in Europe. Which I love about European game (and older NBA game). Anyways, so they reset the offense and go to secondary PnR. Doncic attacks left this time, forces Printezis to help further, finds his man again but close-out distance is harder this time, shooter is more open and bucket.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

When I just watched the move before the shot now, I said "this won't be a front rimmer" and it turned out to be a make.
Not all that surprising because there's rhythm to the move this time, he feels the power on his lower body for the stepback.
He closes his feet together to generate power for the lateral movement first, and pulls off a successful stepback upon using the rhythm that is created by the power for the initial lateral step, his feet alignment is also better. All this makes this shot look in better rhythm. Rhythm is a reflection on power generation from lower body on shots. The reason you cannot practice shooting for 6 hours straight for example, after a certain point you don't have any rhythm in the shot and it is like playing shot put. Even on spot-ups let alone step backs, pull-ups, etc. That's not because of lack of power in your wrist or whatever, it is because lack of power on your lower body after hours of shooting practice which is one of the least intense individual practices. You're likely to fall on your stepback with no defender in sight after like 5 hours of shooting practice for example, there's not just any power left. Your rhythm on stepbacks won't be the same after two hours compared to beginning of the practice for the same reason. As it isn't the same for week 1 against Efes and week 22 against Olympiakos in a season. Luka needs to solve this. This season with no offseason might be an outlier, work on lower body might cause improvements but he needs to solve this. If it's late January and he's having the same issues in his 3rd season in the NBA, it puts a ceiling on his off-the-dribble shooting. His touch is elite anyway, he can't solve these problematic shooting slumps by shooting 2000 shots on offseason.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This one made me go "not a front rim either" as well. Nothing to criticize for shot balance and mechanics really, just another miss. Only thing I can point out is about the shot selection. It's a perfect one for a crossover to the right as defender is in perfect position to get beaten by that and there's sufficient space for a midrange pull-up on the right. So crossover + optional single dribble to the pull-up is a better shot selection imo. However, shot clock is running out, so I can't really call out that one.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

He has to carry because he can't yo-yo dribble. He has to have issues with ball placement on top of the ball/palming.
Can't really spot it without working with him or playing together with him. His low crossover after is great though. He's probably one of 3 best Euro prospects ever, definitely the best in the last 30 years and his handles are overall good but he couldn't make a high school team in 60s with the same handles. Seriously, over the top dribble needs a lot of work.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Another example of high dribble issues. He can't beat the defender in transition to the rim not because of any athletic issues here, but because of inability to high dribble. His inability to high dribble with a tried in & out disallows him to get lowness and attack to the rim. He always gets low by getting low from a non-dribbling start or with a carry like the previous possession,
but inability of "high dribble into the getting low" limits him one-on-one quite a lot.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Again, carry allows him to get lowness out of the dribble which results in FTs. He won't get called for these carries in the NBA and doesn't get called in Euroleague either. But as exemplified above, carries don't solve every problem. Still needs to improve the high dribble.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

A non-carry lowness example. I also mentioned non-dribble starts as possessions he gains lowness. Well, a non-dribbling start here. He's low from the beginning, hang dribble isn't a carry but he's able to hang dribble because of the non-dribbling start which allows him to get low from the beginning. But again, for dribbling starts, carrying doesn't solve everything, he needs to work on high dribble. I don't wanna comment on physicality here, but I think I have to. Foul is called on Spanoulis FWIW, not Thompson's smacks. Euroleague officiating pulls out weak calls all the time, but doesn't try to protect perimeter offensive players at any costs like NBA refs do. But that's a bad thing for many Doncic fans here, because that's an argument for them as in "European officating allows physicality that NBA refs don't" while I like how it is in Europe. So don't wanna underline this as if it's bad officiating.
I like it.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Lack of power on lower body problems again. His behind leg which is left leg, can't generate enough power to carry his momentum to the back. His left break sort of breaks under pressure, but then he crossovers to the right and gains the foul.
Remember when I talked about crossing over to the right as a criticism of shot selection on that shot with a running out shot clock?
This time he did it (shot clock is also not running out here) and even did it when his left leg broke under pressure from his momentum shift. But that lack of power on legs is still valuable to look at here, even with the drawn foul. Worth to remember he played (I think) all of the second half and this is the final minute of the game.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

On the final possession of the game, I don't think he falls because he slips or due to contact. His behind leg broke under pressure of his own momentum the previous possession. I think he falls because both of his legs can't carry his momentum on the spin this time, left one turns outwards where it doesn't supposed to and the right one completely stretches out probably with no power under pressure and causes the fall.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

However accurate this game might be to show a bunch of different things about '18 Doncic. It misses two major things about him:

*Off-ball scoring ability.
*Much of the playmaking for others due to Olympiakos switching majority of the PnRs all game.

And one non-major thing: Set-up postups that happen every other game.

I have to admit I'm a bit discouraged to write these long posts in this thread from now on because it doesn't generate much discussion/debate which is okay but also I see a lot of continued trends in arguments here that I specifically want to end. And if noone argues, debates about them with me but those same trends, opinions continue in basically the same discussions every time I start reading this thread a little, well then it's pretty useless for me to write those things. But a few people asked for this (when Luka Doncic was an 18 year old, I might add) and I wanted to write it as soon as I could write it (when now Luka Doncic is a 19 year old) so I did. Sorry for any mistakes in the post, I won't proofread this one as I'm still ill although much better compared to last 20 days. Anyway back to bed.

Thanks for this scouting section, wanted to reply with some questions to get some discussion going. Tried to leave in the clips of the relevant topic areas.

On the first clip I agree with what you've mentioned, that his closeout technique is quite poor. I'm seeing how he kinda hops around lately instead of using smaller steps to get to a spot like he did last season, and by hopping into a spot it's much more difficult to change momentum/direction in an instant. Would that be an accurate reading?

You mention a lot about how Doncic needs considerable improvement in high dribbles. I'm not very familiar with what that is, Is that a sort of push dribble that allows a guy to get to speed from a standstill? Maintain already built up speed? And could you maybe elaborate on what improvements we might see if Luka does add a high dribble?

His lack of one-two finishes is a weird problem, as it seems this season especially he has preferred the motor pattern of a two foot plant before finishing at the basket. Last season he was better at getting the footwork right for at-basket finishes, but would take off too early. Not sure exactly if it's just a preference thing or if split second motor patterns can be retrained.

Also in isolation situations vs switches, really seems like he needs better change of pace in conjunction with fixing one-two motor patterns, you can always tell when he is going to attack maybe due to the lack of a high dribble? Like a big intake breath before exhale + aggressive drive.

And lastly, it's good to see more confirmation that his lower body force production has regressed quite a lot, quite noticeable with how his left leg collapses twice, and that there's definite room for improvement there. I think that may be a big reason for of his declining outside shot percentages, as on some of his misses it really looks like the inconsistent base is a big contributing factor. But also seems like he's changed from a more stable wide base, simple up and down/two foot landing to something where both feet are closer together on shot prep, and lands on foot afterward?

[SportsGuy8]

lol did he really just try to draw a shooting foul at half court instead of getting a good final shot?

you're down 3, what you doin? at least get the best look you can

Yeah that was super awkward. However there's another difference between NBA and European basketball here. If you're in this situation in Europe, the opposing team wont let you get a 3 point attempt. They'll foul you and send you to shoot FTs as soon as you get over the halfcourt.

For some reason in NBA teams just let opponents try to tie the game. I never understood that.

When I was a kid I spent a lot of time thinking about these end of game situations, and actually, NOT fouling is actually mostly the correct play. When it comes to these end of game situations, it seems like the whole Europe sucks at basic logic, statistics and probabilities.

Sure, there are exceptions where it would be better to foul, but they're rare.

Two main things everyone in Europe seems to miss:
1. The possibility of opposing team either grabbing an offensive rebound after 2nd FT, or STEALING the ball if the 2nd FT is hit. This dramatically changes the probabilities.
2. If you do let your opponent shoot a 3, they are not going to hit that often, almost surely under 30% of the time (since its usually impossible to execute a real play; players often shoot some crazy shot over defenders). But even if they hit it, quite often there's still going to be time left on the clock. But the latter is much more important in the NBA, where a team often has a timeout left and are going to be able to advance the ball.

Not even mentioning that there's still going to be an OT if they hit! But if you foul intentionally, there's actually a decent chance of you losing:
A) By losing the FT battle/lottery.
B) 1 hit FT, miss, rebound & 3.
C) The most likely and often completely disregarded: 2 hit FTs, STEAL after inbound (smarter teams are really good at trapping), then only a 2 is needed to win and you to lose.

[Mirotic12]

When I was a kid I spent a lot of time thinking about these end of game situations, and actually, NOT fouling is actually mostly the correct play. When it comes to these end of game situations, it seems like the whole Europe sucks at basic logic, statistics and probabilities.

Sure, there are exceptions where it would be better to foul, but they're rare.

Two main things everyone in Europe seems to miss:
1. The possibility of opposing team either grabbing an offensive rebound after 2nd FT, or STEALING the ball if the 2nd FT is hit. This dramatically changes the probabilities.
2. If you do let your opponent shoot a 3, they are not going to hit that often, almost surely under 30% of the time (since its usually impossible to execute a real play; players often shoot some crazy shot over defenders). But even if they hit it, quite often there's still going to be time left on the clock. But the latter is much more important in the NBA, where a team often has a timeout left and are going to be able to advance the ball.

Not even mentioning that there's still going to be an OT if they hit! But if you foul intentionally, there's actually a decent chance of you losing:
A) By losing the FT battle/lottery.
B) 1 hit FT, miss, rebound & 3.
C) The most likely and often completely disregarded: 2 hit FTs, STEAL after inbound (smarter teams are really good at trapping), then only a 2 is needed to win and you to lose.

If I was a general manager of a pro basketball team...the first time my head coach didn't foul a guy taking a 3 pointer at the end of the game, and the team lost because of it....I would tell the coach to never do that again, and to foul every time. If he failed to have the team foul a second time in that same situation (regardless if the team won or lost)...I would immediately fire him.

It is absolutely ridiculous to me that NBA teams do not automatically foul in that situation. There is no argument anyone could possibly make that justifies not fouling. Point blank, it's actually purposely trying to sabotage your own team from winning, to not foul in those instances.

It's a totally bizarre aspect of American basketball, and there is a reason why most leagues all around the world always foul in that situation. It's honestly really weird that American coaching tolerates such outdated thinking and strategy.

[916fan]

When I was a kid I spent a lot of time thinking about these end of game situations, and actually, NOT fouling is actually mostly the correct play. When it comes to these end of game situations, it seems like the whole Europe sucks at basic logic, statistics and probabilities.

Sure, there are exceptions where it would be better to foul, but they're rare.

Two main things everyone in Europe seems to miss:
1. The possibility of opposing team either grabbing an offensive rebound after 2nd FT, or STEALING the ball if the 2nd FT is hit. This dramatically changes the probabilities.
2. If you do let your opponent shoot a 3, they are not going to hit that often, almost surely under 30% of the time (since its usually impossible to execute a real play; players often shoot some crazy shot over defenders). But even if they hit it, quite often there's still going to be time left on the clock. But the latter is much more important in the NBA, where a team often has a timeout left and are going to be able to advance the ball.

Not even mentioning that there's still going to be an OT if they hit! But if you foul intentionally, there's actually a decent chance of you losing:
A) By losing the FT battle/lottery.
B) 1 hit FT, miss, rebound & 3.
C) The most likely and often completely disregarded: 2 hit FTs, STEAL after inbound (smarter teams are really good at trapping), then only a 2 is needed to win and you to lose.

If I was a general manager of a pro basketball team...the first time my head coach didn't foul a guy taking a 3 pointer at the end of the game, and the team lost because of it....I would tell the coach to never do that again, and to foul every time. If he failed to have the team foul a second time in that same situation (regardless if the team won or lost)...I would immediately fire him.

It is absolutely ridiculous to me that NBA teams do not automatically foul in that situation. There is no argument anyone could possibly make that justifies not fouling. Point blank, it's actually purposely trying to sabotage your own team from winning, to not foul in those instances.

It's a totally bizarre aspect of American basketball, and there is a reason why most leagues all around the world always foul in that situation. It's honestly really weird that American coaching tolerates such outdated thinking and strategy.

It's because NBA teams trust their defenses. SportsGuy did a great job breaking it down..but it comes down to defense. If European coaches don't trust their defense, then oh well.