Bucks pick is going to convey

[Beetlejuice]

Tldr; 80-90% get pick, bucks struggling, schedule actually not that easy,most other teams rolling.

I have found out that the bucks pick is going to convey this year. There are a lot of factors going in why I do think that it is going to happen.

I stumbled on a quote from suns sports radio, which basically said that its good if the Bucks pick is not going to convey this year. While i dont agree with said opinion, it did spike my interest and today i have looked into and thought about it for a bit.





First i looked at the pick protections and then standings. We get their pick if they dont beat out any western conference playoff team by achieving a better record and also do not rise higher than 7th in eastern conference.

Gauging the state of bucks performance lately. A acceptable litmus test for that imho is to venture into that teams forum and read around a bit.
They have lost 4 home games in a row and there is bound to be a bit more doom than gloom in there but you can try to adjust for that kind of bias a bit. But there are several key points to take away:

*Giannis seems to be a bit hobbled, some greek interview at ASB break did mention some knee rest etc(rumor). They are playing him lately close to 40 minutes a game. Struggling with his shot also.

*Fans not pleased with Giannis iso style that he and Bledsoe seem to have fallen into. We all know too well about Bledsoe offence debilitating ball pounding issues.

*3pt shooting is not up to bar to play good drive and kick game. A couple of “Bender” like plays seem to happen every game where guys are not taking good shots also.

* Coaching change honeymoon phase seems to be over. They are not happy at all about bucks defense, not even close. If there even was any phase at all, wins came vs Phoenix, Brooklyn, Chicago, Philadelphia(no Embiid), Knicks, Brooklyn, Orlando, Atlanta and at Toronto (!) . They have struggled versus playoff teams.

*Brogdon out for a month : Brogdon (quad) said that he has four more weeks to go in his recovery, Joe Zenzola of 105.7 The Fan reports. Iso heavy with poor 3 pont shooting is going to continue in march at least.

*Rebounding issues. Thon seems to be way worse at that than any of our bigs.

So all in all I think they are going to lose games vs playoff teams and mostly take care of non playoff teams.





Remaining schedule: 9 home games . 12 road games. They are 19-13 home and 14-16 away.
Right now they are sitting on 33-29

Sun, Mar 4 vs Philadelphia LOSS ..... if we consider how hot/cold both teams have been.

This is really important game to watch

Mon, Mar 5 @ Indiana LOSS ..... back to back on a road while Giannis probably has battled 40 minutes with Embiid the night before.

This is even more important game to watch.

Wed, Mar 7 vs Houston ... LOSS 0-1
Fri, Mar 9 vs NY Knicks ... WIN 1-1
Mon, Mar 12 @ Memphis ... WIN 2-1
Wed, Mar 14 @ Orlando ... WIN 3-1(this is at Orlando who is healthy atm, vegas odds might be 50/50 here.)
Sat, Mar 17 vs Atlanta ... WIN 4-1
Mon, Mar 19 @ Cleveland ... LOSS 4-2
Wed, Mar 21 vs LA ... LOSS 4-3 (clippers are playing better ball lately, but this probably might be close)
Fri, Mar 23 @ Chicago WIN 5-3
Sun, Mar 25 vs San Antonio LOSS 5-4
Tue, Mar 27 @ LA ... LOSS 5-5
Thu, Mar 29 @ Golden State ... LOSS 5-6
Fri, Mar 30 @ Los Angeles ... WIN 6-6 (road back to back with LA who this moment is playing well this might even out clips)

APRIL OPPONENT
Sun, Apr 1 @ Denver ... LOSS 6-7
Tue, Apr 3 vs Boston ... LOSS 6-8
Thu, Apr 5 vs Brooklyn ... WIN 7-8
Sat, Apr 7 @ NY Knicks ... WIN 8-8
Mon, Apr 9 vs Orlando ... WIN 9-8
Wed, Apr 11 @ Philadelphia ... LOSS 9-9

I think best case scenario is 44 - 38
Most likely for me is 42-40
Taking Bucks forum "feel" into formula ... 40-42 or 41-41 is likely too.

Western conference playoff team will likely get 45 wins . Utah is rolling and Clippers are playing really well, so is Denver. Most likely team to fall right now is the Spurs as crazy as it sounds but Kawhi is going to come back and i think they are going to go 8-11 or better and even if they dont, Utah might take their place with 45 wins.

So for me it all boils down the Bucks not making the 6th seed in the eastern conference.

First they have to beat out the Miami Heat who has the tiebreaker and 3 more home games remaining than the bucks. Although a bit tougher schedule http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/mia/miami-heat I can still count likely 9 wins and if they win more bucks are pretty much done with their 2018 pick. (9 wins get Heat to 42 wins and then bucks have to win 43 games to beat Heat).

Next one up is Philadelphia who may win all their remaining games ! Go check out their schedule http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/phi/philadelphia-76ers . No real roadblocks in there. Bucks cant leapfrog Philly even if they win tonight.

So the Bucks must beat out Pacers or the Wizards. Since Washington is playing well and has a division winner tiebreaker over Bucks we must assume that Indiana is the one to falter.

Pacers do have a horrible schedule and they have lost 2 games to Mavs and Hawks lately(road games). Especially if we write in losses vs washington and bucks i can see them manage to win only 5 games and end up with 41 wins. But if they split with washington and win vs Bucks at home i think its over . They very likely have tiebreaker too even if the bucks win tomorrow.

If pacers win tomorrow at home while bucks are on a home-road back to back(pacers are too back to back) with hobbled up Giannis. They likely end up with 42-43 wins at least and bucks must win some really tough games to make up for this loss.


The bucks must win today and tomorrow to keep their pick. They have to do it vs hot team in Philadelphia who with Embiid is a tough matchup and they have to beat Indiana at road tomorrow who at home so far has been a really good team at home (7th best this year) . They have to do that after playing lackluster ball for a while now.


To me all this points to -> we get their pick the vast majority of times.

Please if you have anything to add or correct -> do so !


Some snippets from bucks forum :

No doubt Giannis has been awful. His jumper is as bad as it's ever been and I can't remember the last time he converted a 3-point play. But the guy has to create everything for himself. Every shot he takes he creates for himself. There's no offensive sets getting him open looks in the paint, and there sure as hell ain't any PG setting him up. And if he drives, opposing teams just collapse the paint because they aren't at all scared of our "shooters." This offense lacks any kind of creativity, so since it was designed by one Joe Prunty, it's pretty clear he has no future with this team.

When this team went on their Prunty winning streak, I said we have to give it a few weeks to analyze if it could last. It turned out when the new car smell wore off and their competition got better, this team folded again like under Kidd.

I'm now 99% sure it's a heart thing. We have a bunch of unmotivated guys who lack consistency and don't play all out every game. The sooner the organization realizes who these players are (I have at least 3/4 in mind) the sooner we take the next step.

The positive is as of now I see a 4-1 first round exit at the hands of the Celtics/Raps and it will be a house-cleaning in the organization. I predict Prunty and staff go but also taking Horst with him. I see LED being very embarrassed when all is said and done.

Giannis looks physically and mentally spent. Of course the shot isn't consistent and that's frustrating. It shouldn't be so volatile by now. However, I don't know if we need to over-analyze overall contribution. He got burned out to compensate for all the franchise's mistakes the last few years. Hopefully he's not doing any permanent damage to the knee.

The offense is discombobulated. Dribble hand-offs, iso, and driving into a crowd. Combo of spacing, b-ball i.q., and coaching.

Trade deadline was a crossroads and they chose the wrong path. We're pot committed now. It sucks. Going to just have to tweak for a couple years before players clear off the cap and hope for the best. Hopefully they at least keep their pick this year, hit on that, and get passed the first round. But I don't think that last goal is likely. Hell, don't know if any of it is.

[Beetlejuice]

Posted in its own thread because today/tomorrow is absolutely critical time for this as you can read above.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I think its 50/50 it conveys. They aren't too far back of philly or indi and I don't totally trust either of those teams.

It's debatable if it's in the suns best interest if it conveys this year. Because of the protections its could convey at a better spot in 19 or 20 but it also could be much worse in a weaker draft.

If it doesn't convey it has more flexibility as an asset. I'm all for taking as many swings in the draft as possible but if they have 3 picks in the top 16 and 4 in the top 35 I can see how they will be pressured to trade at least one of those picks.

[bigfoot]

Playoff predictions show Heat/Bucks both making the playoffs in the East but having the 13th and 14th worst records in the league. So we have pretty good odds of getting the 15/16 picks in addition to ours. Sadly they won't move up unless the Hornets or Pistons make a strong run.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

[NBA Fiend]

Thanks for this great wrire up, very in depth. Too bad Detriot has gone off the rails. They ran off a few after the Blake trade but they appear to traped in no mans land with that roster. Charolette would have to go insane to make the playoffs. Best case 15 and 16. Lots of trade capital. Guess it's time to start looking for draft and stash guys. So when the Suns go on their finals runs like the Bulls back in the 90s they can bring in their very own Kucoc player to bolster their roster

[lilfishi22]

Not sure how I feel about when we want the picks to be conveyed. If we assume they'll get better next year with this year's pick and whatever else they do in the offseason, then that pick may not convey until 2020 in which it could potentially be in the 20's. I don't think they will be a worse team the next few seasons so this might be the highest pick we'll get from them.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I don't think we're desperate for another mid first so either way.

[lilfishi22]

I don't think we're desperate for another mid first so either way.

We're not but the Bucks appear to be trending up which means if not a mid-first now, it may not convey until 2020 and be an early 20's pick.

[Beetlejuice]

Had the Philly 60% favorites for today, but bucks got it going after letting sixers score season high 43 points in the first quarter, a good comeback win. But indiana won also . If the Bucks beat Indiana today their odds of keeping their pick is going to double.

[Bogyo]

Had the Philly 60% favorites for today, but bucks got it going after letting sixers score season high 43 points in the first quarter, a good comeback win. But indiana won also . If the Bucks beat Indiana today their odds of keeping their pick is going to double.

Yeah, very important game for us! I want that pick this year, beocuse next years protection is worse, and the Bucks could be better if Parker plays whole year, etc... Plus we need to be as agressive as we can be this years free agency/lottery.

[AtheJ415]

Yeah, we'd rather it convey this year. It's a solid draft, and there are guys at 16 who could help us. I know many think we can't keep 3 rookies on the team but we can always draft international guys (including both who are projected to go around 15-16) and bring them over in a year or 2. Bogdon bailed but that doesn't mean others wouldn't come on the rookie scale.

Also, we can easily make room for the rookies if needed or package the picks to move up into the 10-12 range for a guy we might covet more (like Robert Williams, who has the tools but has slipped in this draft or Sexton, who might be there around that range at this point).

[Mulhollanddrive]

I have a different view those 3 future picks are the key to landing a superstar via trade I'd rather not spend them before then. A bunch of non lottery picks is unlikely to change much if we use them ourselves.

[Young gun 6]

I have a different view those 3 future picks are the key to landing a superstar via trade I'd rather not spend them before then. A bunch of non lottery picks is unlikely to change much if we use them ourselves.

That’s a good point. Miami obviously has to convey but I wouldn’t be against Milwaukee pick not conveying and then trading Milwaukee 2019 pick and Miami 2021 unprotected pick in a blockbuster.

I’m sure someone would take the punt that that Milwaukee pick might be top 15 and if not I’m sure someone would punt on Miami 2021 pick potentially being anything.

I’d be happy trading that away at some point on the proviso that the other team trading respects it and are taking a gamble that it’ll be a top 10 pick. I reckon Miami will turn things around and land someone big sooner or later. Even if they don’t, in the east they are likely a decent chance for Playoffs especially if teams like Wizards and Cavs fall off the cliff in a couple of years.