Really, where do we stand?

[Wiz99]

I went into this season hoping to see the squad evolve. But now I feel we’ve just tread water vs last year. And other squads are noticeably improved in the East (Raptors, Pacers, 76ers) and West (Houston, Portland, even Pelicans).

If all the league’s squads were healthy, and they played a season with no conferences and playoffs seeded 1-16, with players at their current developmental level, where would the Wizards come out? I bucketize the NBA this way:

-1ST TIER: Warriors
-2ND TIER: Rockets (love em, but only a remote chance to knock off healthy GSW in 7 gm series)
-3RD TIER: Toronto, Cleveland, Boston, Portland, Spurs (can’t beat GSW HOU in playoffs)
-4TH TIER: OKC, TWolves, Pelicans (with healthy Boogie)
-5TH TIER: Wizards, Pacers, Denver, Utah
-6TH TIER: Sixers, Clippers, Bucks, Heat, Pistons (though if they keep playing like tonight...)
-7TH TIER: Charlotte, Knicks, Lakers
-8TH TIER: the bottom feeders

This puts us 11th best, but far from the elite. Fair? Can you make a case for the Wiz higher?

[trast66]

Agree with first two tiers. Maybe a 3rd tier just for LeBron. Your tiers 3 through 6 I think are just one big tier (but drop the pistons). The wizards could win or lose a 7 game series with any of those teams and I would not be shocked. Unless Kawhi has a miraculous recovery, then I think Spurs move up.

[Shanghai Kid]

My honest gut instinct is that we likely lose in the 2nd round again this year. We have the talent to beat Toronto or Boston, but factors like coaching and team chemistry will probably hold us back. We can take any team in the East to 7 games though.

[Illmatic12]

I don't agree with your tier system. That's far too granular based on what we actually know about the league

It's basically the Warriors in Tier 1 , Cleveland/Hou (maybe) in Tier 2, and then all the other playoff teams in the next tier. Tanking teams at the bottom.

[dangermouse]

Wolves, Pels and OKC a tier above us? Damn dude.

I mean, Wolves and Pels could be in a season or two give or take but not this year, with all teams healthy.

[TheBabyMaker]

Wolves, Pels and OKC a tier above us? Damn dude.

I mean, Wolves and Pels could be in a season or two give or take but not this year, with all teams healthy.

Guess you did not notice he has Portland 2 tiers above us and a tier above the teams you mention lol. No way. Wiz are a 3rd tier at worst. Clev, Boston, Toronto and Spurs need their own tier at 2, Rockets move to 1 slightly behind GSW.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I stand a little bit to the left and behind.

[Wiz99]

Wolves, Pels and OKC a tier above us? Damn dude.

I mean, Wolves and Pels could be in a season or two give or take but not this year, with all teams healthy.

Guess you did not notice he has Portland 2 tiers above us and a tier above the teams you mention lol. No way. Wiz are a 3rd tier at worst. Clev, Boston, Toronto and Spurs need their own tier at 2, Rockets move to 1 slightly behind GSW.

On Portland, yah, you’re right. I’d bring em down a tier.

With a healthy Kahwi, I’d move the Spurs to the front of Tier 3.

On OKC and Pelicans, I’d argue they would beat us in a 7 game playofff series. OKC has last year’s MVP and Pels have Davis who’s playing at such a high level that there’s a case for him to be #2 in this year’s MVP voting. Those guys can just takeover a game and a series. Wall hasn’t shown that killer instinct. And with Beal’s utter non-clutchedness, I’d give the the nod to Paul George and a healthy Boogie when it comes to second options.

On T-Wolves, Butler isn’t as physically talented as Westbrook or Davis, but he’s just as good as Wall as well as a better leader. The Wolves also have far superior coaching and other veteran leadership. If you watch them play, they're mentally much harder than us. That counts a lot in the playoffs.

[Illmatic12]

Wolves, Pels and OKC a tier above us? Damn dude.

I mean, Wolves and Pels could be in a season or two give or take but not this year, with all teams healthy.

Guess you did not notice he has Portland 2 tiers above us and a tier above the teams you mention lol. No way. Wiz are a 3rd tier at worst. Clev, Boston, Toronto and Spurs need their own tier at 2, Rockets move to 1 slightly behind GSW.

On Portland, yah, you’re right. I’d bring em down a tier.

With a healthy Kahwi, I’d move the Spurs to the front of Tier 3.

On OKC and Pelicans, I’d argue they would beat us in a 7 game playofff series. OKC has last year’s MVP and Pels have Davis who’s playing at such a high level that there’s a case for him to be #2 in this year’s MVP voting. Those guys can just takeover a game and a series. Wall hasn’t shown that killer instinct. And with Beal’s utter non-clutchedness, I’d give the the nod to Paul George and a healthy Boogie when it comes to second options.

On T-Wolves, Butler isn’t as physically talented as Westbrook or Davis, but he’s just as good as Wall as well as a better leader. The Wolves also have far superior coaching and other veteran leadership. If you watch them play, they're mentally much harder than us. That counts a lot in the playoffs.

Wall hasn't shown that? He averaged 27/10 in the playoffs last season. Dropped 42 vs Atlanta in a closeout game on the road .
Davis has played 4 postseason games in his entire career. John has played in 31 and Beal has played in 34.

Also, Paul George is one of the worst clutch players in the league lol, he is notorious for that.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/6yym0g/from_20102017_paul_george_had_the_worst_game/


Somehow just about everything you said in that post was wrong. Minnesota, with a supposed "great coach" has a bottom 5 defense in the league. I feel like there's no point to this kind of ranking anyways, we'll never play most of these teams in a playoff series. Wizards only have to worry about beating teams in the East.

[Dat2U]

I look at it this way.

There's two teams capable of winning it all:
Warriors & Rockets

There's 4 teams in the East with a legitimate shot at getting to the NBA finals:
Cavs, Celtics, Raptors & Wizards

The rest of the playoff teams in the West are likely blocked by the Warriors & Rockets.

[Dark Faze]

If John gets back to what he was last year, I think we could be a stealth finals team.

[Wiz99]

What I’m learning from these responses is there’s belief that the Wizards are already championship contenders. Maybe lower odds, but you see a path now with this squad as currently constructed.

I don’t. We need some combination of:

1. One of Wall, Beal, Porter or Oubre going from a good player to transcendent (like LeBron/KD/Harden). It’s almost impossible to win a ‘chip without at least one. 27 of the last 30 have been won by a team with 1 of 8 guys (Curry, LeBron, Duncan, Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, Olajuwon, Magic).

2. Improved player leadership demanding consistent defense, reduced mental errors, and a killer instinct in the clutch.

3. Coaching that enables the above AND makes good decisions in crunch time

We could potentially pull an ‘04 Pistons and win with a combo of #2 and #3, but it’s far easier with #1 and one of the others.

But we don’t have 1, 2 or 3.

[Dat2U]

What I’m learning from these responses is there’s belief that the Wizards are already championship contenders. Maybe lower odds, but you see a path now with this squad as currently constructed.

I don’t. We need some combination of:

1. One of Wall, Beal, Porter or Oubre going from a good player to transcendent (like LeBron/KD/Harden). It’s almost impossible to win a ‘chip without at least one. 27 of the last 39 have been won by a team with 1 of 8 guys (Curry, LeBron, Duncan, Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, Olajuwon, Magic).

2. Improved player leadership demanding consistent defensive performance, reduced mental errors, and a killer instinct in the clutch.

3. Coaching that enables the above AND makes good decisions in crunch time

We could potentially pull an ‘04 Pistons and win with a combo of #2 and #3, but it’s far easier with #1 and one of the others.

But we don’t have 1, 2 or 3.

Well there's only two legitimate contenders in the league. So when you make this argument, your making it for all but two teams in the league. The Wizards are a Draymond Green or Clint Capela away from the Warriors or Rockets. They'll be lucky to win one game from the Warriors. Maybe 2 from the Rockets if they play lights out...

But in the East they can legitimately beat any team in a 7 game series. That's because none of the teams in the East are true contenders THIS year. This could easily change next year, especially with Boston & Philly on the rise.

Keep in mind Wall hasn't been very good but the Wall/Beal/Oubre/Porter lineup is still one of the very best in the league this season and was running most teams off the floor.

I also believe our ceiling has increased significantly with the development this season of Porter, Oubre & Sato. Porter is the modern day Shane Battier, with much better length & skill - his impact his max contract-like even if he goes unnoticed at times. Oubre in time will be a hybrid version of Ariza, an aggressive slasher & gunner with elite defensive tools. Sato is still finding himself but once he gets a bit of aggression with his shot he's a starting caliber guy coming off your bench at 3 positions.

We've lacked the depth in the past to be a legitimate contender. This season we've actually closed the gap significantly despite John's struggles. I'm excited to see how much better we can be with a healthy Wall.

[CobraCommander]

Tier1- Rockets and Warriors
Tier2- Cavs
Tier3 - All of the rest of playoff teams...if healthy. I think the rest of the teams could win or lose a 7 game series to each other and no one should be surprised.

The Wiz at full strength would be favorites in a series against a lot of the teams you have in tier3 and 4 if we took it to Vegas (Portland-Twolves-Pelicans)

[dangermouse]

Tier1- Rockets and Warriors
Tier2- Cavs
Tier3 - All of the rest of playoff teams...if healthy. I think the rest of the teams could win or lose a 7 game series to each other and no one should be surprised.

The Wiz at full strength would be favorites in a series against a lot of the teams you have in tier3 and 4 if we took it to Vegas (Portland-Twolves-Pelicans)

Thats about where I see it.

Although Rockets are tier 1 they still arent contenders because Warrios exist in their conference. I just cant see them winning a 7 game series to go through.

Then I have Cavs as contenders becuase, well, you gotta be in it to win it, and Lebron can get teams to the finals.

Its unlikely Lebron goes West. But could you imagine if he did? Wow. We'd be contenders (along with every other east team in tier 3).

[truwizfan4evr]

Tier1- Rockets and Warriors
Tier2- Cavs
Tier3 - All of the rest of playoff teams...if healthy. I think the rest of the teams could win or lose a 7 game series to each other and no one should be surprised.

The Wiz at full strength would be favorites in a series against a lot of the teams you have in tier3 and 4 if we took it to Vegas (Portland-Twolves-Pelicans)

Thats about where I see it.

Although Rockets are tier 1 they still arent contenders because Warrios exist in their conference. I just cant see them winning a 7 game series to go through.

Then I have Cavs as contenders becuase, well, you gotta be in it to win it, and Lebron can get teams to the finals.

Its unlikely Lebron goes West. But could you imagine if he did? Wow. We'd be contenders (along with every other east team in tier 3).

When Wall gets healthy, I actually think we could not only push cavs in a best of 7 series but actually win it.

[payitforward]

I look at it this way.

There's two teams capable of winning it all:
Warriors & Rockets

There's 4 teams in the East with a legitimate shot at getting to the NBA finals:
Cavs, Celtics, Raptors & Wizards...

I agree about the Warriors & Rockets.

But, how you can claim we have a "legitimate shot" at the NBA finals I'll never understand.

I'd say we have "a legitimate shot" at getting out of R1 of the playoffs, b/c we've actually done that. But there's nothing I'd say gives us that kind of standing to go any further.

Now, I don't mean we won't go further. Can't say that -- any more than one could say that it's 100% for the Warriors or Rockets to win the title. Anything can happen. Just w/ more or less likelihood.

We have a very difficult schedule the rest of the way. It's going to be unlikely that we have home court advantage in R1. Our 2 most likely candidates for R1 opponents have both played well against us.

Even leaving all that aside, just looking at our personnel, how is this a team w/ a legitimate chance at the NBA Finals? As I say, anything can happen. We can hope that John Wall comes back & immediately plays at his career best level. That Mike Scott returns to his early season form. That Mahinmi produces at his very top efficiency level, including not fouling as much. That Jodie Meeks becomes the old Jodie Meeks. Etc. etc. etc.

But, that's all "hope." Would be great but for all that to happen...?

[payitforward]

"Really, where... we stand" -- we're an above average NBA team overall. You can see that from our numbers vs. the league.

But there are 10 teams that have better numbers vs. the league than we do. 7 of them are in the West, & since teams in the West play one another more than they do the East, you can argue that 1 or 2 other teams in the West also might be better than the Wiz.

Only 3 teams in the East have better numbers vs. the league than we do. Our schedule the rest of the way may change that.

Now, if you take into account our financial situation going forward, then "where we stand" is likely to be best answered by saying that this generation of the Wizards would need something close to a miracle to get any better.

[nate33]

Tier1- Rockets and Warriors
Tier2- Cavs
Tier3 - All of the rest of playoff teams...if healthy. I think the rest of the teams could win or lose a 7 game series to each other and no one should be surprised.

The Wiz at full strength would be favorites in a series against a lot of the teams you have in tier3 and 4 if we took it to Vegas (Portland-Twolves-Pelicans)

This.

Rockets and Warriors are a class to themselves. The Warriors are better, but I give the Rockets at least a 25% chance of winning a 7-game series, so that makes them contenders. Nobody else has better than a 5% chance of defeating the Warriors.

The Cavs are a tier above everyone else because of Lebron. In the playoffs, when he is rested and motivated, he is still the most unstoppable player in the game. As long as Cleveland's other players can play a little D and hit open 3's, they're the favorites in the East.

The rest of the top 10 or so teams are all about the same. Toronto is probably a bit better than most, but other than them, I see little separation between San Antonio, OKC, New Orleans, Portland, Minnesota, Washington, Boston, and Philly. Any one of those teams could beat another, it will depend on matchups and hot shooting.

[Dat2U]

I look at it this way.

There's two teams capable of winning it all:
Warriors & Rockets

There's 4 teams in the East with a legitimate shot at getting to the NBA finals:
Cavs, Celtics, Raptors & Wizards...

I agree about the Warriors & Rockets.

But, how you can claim we have a "legitimate shot" at the NBA finals I'll never understand.

I'd say we have "a legitimate shot" at getting out of R1 of the playoffs, b/c we've actually done that. But there's nothing I'd say gives us that kind of standing to go any further.

Now, I don't mean we won't go further. Can't say that -- any more than one could say that it's 100% for the Warriors or Rockets to win the title. Anything can happen. Just w/ more or less likelihood.

We have a very difficult schedule the rest of the way. It's going to be unlikely that we have home court advantage in R1. Our 2 most likely candidates for R1 opponents have both played well against us.

Even leaving all that aside, just looking at our personnel, how is this a team w/ a legitimate chance at the NBA Finals? As I say, anything can happen. We can hope that John Wall comes back & immediately plays at his career best level. That Mike Scott returns to his early season form. That Mahinmi produces at his very top efficiency level, including not fouling as much. That Jodie Meeks becomes the old Jodie Meeks. Etc. etc. etc.

But, that's all "hope." Would be great but for all that to happen...?

No "hope" involved. I'm talking playoffs, not playoff seedings. I'm talking if Wall comes back and returns to career norms. We can beat any team in the East this year - even moreso than last year with the development of Porter, Oubre & Sato. We can also lose to any of the playoff teams as well - especially Toronto, Boston or Cleveland.

I know it eats you alive that someone would dare be positive but it really doesn't matter that there are 10 teams better than the Wizards with an injured John Wall --- we don't need to beat 10 teams to make it to the finals --- only 3 Eastern teams. Considering how well we've played and haven't had a typical Wall type impact this season, its not a ridiculous stretch to say we got more than a puncher's chance of winning the East if he comes back healthy.