On DeAndre Ayton
Deandre Ayton is another super safe bet. I’d bet against him becoming a weapon on defense, but on offense we are probably looking at a player who will fall somewhere between Andre Drummond and DeMarcus Cousins on the center spectrum. Offensive centers that defensive per-minute metrics like more than they should is due to rebounding. There is real opportunity cost with running possessions through a player like this if they aren’t among the most efficient players in the league, but I’d be surprised if Ayton is not seen by his peers and the coaches of the league as an all star.
The sheer number of centers in this draft should tell us something about their likely value going forward. I’ve even left out Mitchell Robinson, who by some sources is estimated to be the best defensive player of all of them. ...... They can’t all be a top 5 or a top 10 player at their position. And without injury, none of these players are particularly likely to overtake Joel Embiid or Anthony Davis (thank god he’s now playing center). Perhaps it’s possible for a player like Jaren Jackson, but also not entirely likely.
So we have a group of 8-10 players who are being considered near the top of this draft for a deep position (from traditional centers like Embiid, Kristaps, Gobert, Adams, Cousins, Capela, Drummond et al to traditional power forwards like Anthony Davis and Serge Ibaka sometimes manning the position, not to speak of Durant, Lebron, Giannis and the like who all sometimes play there). Does it strike you funny that the upside for all is spoken about as “best player in the league” or “best player at his position”? It does me.
If there are 8-10 players in the draft and one can’t sort through them well enough to figure out who the best one is, the likelihood is that none of them are all that great to begin with. True greatness at the center position is in most cases readily apparent in almost every case. The only exceptions we have to this rule in recent times are three overlooked European players: 1) Gobert, who I’m convinced was underrated 2) Jokic, who I know for a fact was underrated and 3) Marc Gasol, a fat guy with real skill who got into shape and improved athletically. Kristaps may soon join this list.
The lone American exception is 6-foot-7 dynamo Ben Wallace, who was underrated because he lacked the typical dimensions of a NBA center. Basically every other great player at this position in history is a guy like Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Tyson Chandler, Joel Embiid or even Karl Anthony-Towns. This kind of greatness was apparent from the get go, not just by the eyes, but by the all around numbers. Which is to say, if there is any doubt as to who the best player at this position might be, that probably is a sign that there is something lacking in the players at hand.
