'17-'18 POY discussion

[dhsilv2]

On Davis, Giannis, Embiid.

RPM our only easy to get real plus stat has them all really close 4.59-4.88. Nothing there imo could be seen as outside of margin for error. So for me I'd look at minutes and at that point Embiid falls out as a tier below those two. Now while RPM uses box metrics and might be underselling Embiid, the minute gap here is huge.

[dhsilv2]

I think I'm a bit higher on Davis than the Dr.'s both are but Harden is the clear 1. I'd debate Davis at 2 due to value added depending on how they finish and Curry 3rd but theyre 2 and 3. After that its pretty murky. I'm not sure I like Embiid there due to the lowered minutes just yet and Butler being hurt drops him a lot especially since he can't make the playoff impressions he would have. Giannis still probably is in at 4th and for now Butler at 5 til someone bumps him. So...
1. Harden
2. Curry or AD
3. AD or Curry
4. Giannis
5. Butler

No chris paul? Overall decent list, I have butler higher but expect him to fall so no issue there. Paul however imo is in that AD/Curry/Giannis level. Though I'm a bit of a hypocrite given his lower minutes, but unlike other's the wins are just insane. 70-71 win pace with him playing.

[bondom34]

I think I'm a bit higher on Davis than the Dr.'s both are but Harden is the clear 1. I'd debate Davis at 2 due to value added depending on how they finish and Curry 3rd but theyre 2 and 3. After that its pretty murky. I'm not sure I like Embiid there due to the lowered minutes just yet and Butler being hurt drops him a lot especially since he can't make the playoff impressions he would have. Giannis still probably is in at 4th and for now Butler at 5 til someone bumps him. So...
1. Harden
2. Curry or AD
3. AD or Curry
4. Giannis
5. Butler

No chris paul? Overall decent list, I have butler higher but expect him to fall so no issue there. Paul however imo is in that AD/Curry/Giannis level. Though I'm a bit of a hypocrite given his lower minutes, but unlike other's the wins are just insane. 70-71 win pace with him playing.

The minutes are an issue as is overlap with Harden. I struggle to put teammates together in the top 5 let alone higher.

[dhsilv2]

I think I'm a bit higher on Davis than the Dr.'s both are but Harden is the clear 1. I'd debate Davis at 2 due to value added depending on how they finish and Curry 3rd but theyre 2 and 3. After that its pretty murky. I'm not sure I like Embiid there due to the lowered minutes just yet and Butler being hurt drops him a lot especially since he can't make the playoff impressions he would have. Giannis still probably is in at 4th and for now Butler at 5 til someone bumps him. So...
1. Harden
2. Curry or AD
3. AD or Curry
4. Giannis
5. Butler

No chris paul? Overall decent list, I have butler higher but expect him to fall so no issue there. Paul however imo is in that AD/Curry/Giannis level. Though I'm a bit of a hypocrite given his lower minutes, but unlike other's the wins are just insane. 70-71 win pace with him playing.

The minutes are an issue as is overlap with Harden. I struggle to put teammates together in the top 5 let alone higher.

They're leading what might be the greatest offense in NBA history. They are 36 and 3 together (75.7 win pace) and with a point differential of 11.6.

I dunno, feels like either Harden is having the best season in NBA history or Paul's a top 5 guy. I don't buy that Harden is the greatest player ever.

[bondom34]

No chris paul? Overall decent list, I have butler higher but expect him to fall so no issue there. Paul however imo is in that AD/Curry/Giannis level. Though I'm a bit of a hypocrite given his lower minutes, but unlike other's the wins are just insane. 70-71 win pace with him playing.

The minutes are an issue as is overlap with Harden. I struggle to put teammates together in the top 5 let alone higher.

They're leading what might be the greatest offense in NBA history. They are 36 and 3 together (75.7 win pace) and with a point differential of 11.6.

I dunno, feels like either Harden is having the best season in NBA history or Paul's a top 5 guy. I don't buy that Harden is the greatest player ever.

The Warriors won 73 games and had 1 guy I put top 5. Some had Green but I wouldn't. Fit and scheme matter a lot, especially on offense and more so with MDA

[dhsilv2]

The minutes are an issue as is overlap with Harden. I struggle to put teammates together in the top 5 let alone higher.

They're leading what might be the greatest offense in NBA history. They are 36 and 3 together (75.7 win pace) and with a point differential of 11.6.

I dunno, feels like either Harden is having the best season in NBA history or Paul's a top 5 guy. I don't buy that Harden is the greatest player ever.

The Warriors won 73 games and had 1 guy I put top 5. Some had Green but I wouldn't. Fit and scheme matter a lot, especially on offense and more so with MDA

75 win pace...

Most had Green top 5-10 and Klay top 15. Not sure I see Capella that highly myself. But fair enough.

[bondom34]

They're leading what might be the greatest offense in NBA history. They are 36 and 3 together (75.7 win pace) and with a point differential of 11.6.

I dunno, feels like either Harden is having the best season in NBA history or Paul's a top 5 guy. I don't buy that Harden is the greatest player ever.

The Warriors won 73 games and had 1 guy I put top 5. Some had Green but I wouldn't. Fit and scheme matter a lot, especially on offense and more so with MDA

75 win pace...

Most had Green top 5-10 and Klay top 15. Not sure I see Capella that highly myself. But fair enough.

75 win pace over about half a season. Hes missed 18 of 64 games, almost a third of the season.

Edit. Hes played 1475 minutes, about 200 less than Embiid and for reference still less than Porzingis.

[dhsilv2]

The Warriors won 73 games and had 1 guy I put top 5. Some had Green but I wouldn't. Fit and scheme matter a lot, especially on offense and more so with MDA

75 win pace...

Most had Green top 5-10 and Klay top 15. Not sure I see Capella that highly myself. But fair enough.

75 win pace over about half a season. Hes missed 18 of 64 games, almost a third of the season.

I get that, but he was also a new player on a team with an offense unlike anything he's seen. So that's including all the learning too. Which is what makes how fast they were great kinda impressive, no? Like they are still figuring this whole thing out while on a 17 game win streak.

[bondom34]

75 win pace...

Most had Green top 5-10 and Klay top 15. Not sure I see Capella that highly myself. But fair enough.

75 win pace over about half a season. Hes missed 18 of 64 games, almost a third of the season.

I get that, but he was also a new player on a team with an offense unlike anything he's seen. So that's including all the learning too. Which is what makes how fast they were great kinda impressive, no? Like they are still figuring this whole thing out while on a 17 game win streak.

I don't really think it was a hard fit to put an all time great point guard in an offense by MDA. Felt mostly seamless just so Harden was willing to play some off guard too. And missing a third of the season feels like a lot. If you knock Embiid this is more.

[dhsilv2]

75 win pace over about half a season. Hes missed 18 of 64 games, almost a third of the season.

I get that, but he was also a new player on a team with an offense unlike anything he's seen. So that's including all the learning too. Which is what makes how fast they were great kinda impressive, no? Like they are still figuring this whole thing out while on a 17 game win streak.

I don't really think it was a hard fit to put an all time great point guard in an offense by MDA. Felt mostly seamless just so Harden was willing to play some off guard too. And missing a third of the season feels like a lot. If you knock Embiid this is more.

Well I thought it was a good fit but I sure as heck heard everyone claim two ball dominate guys couldn't play together. They still aren't maximizing their value together, but it's getting there.

The difference in Embiid is that against the other players he's compared too, he looks to me their equal. Paul is top 5 in WS/48, BPM, 9th in PER, and Paul is number 1 in RPM (with harden 2nd). Also again the record, you can justify 32 minutes a game with paul if the team is winning at a 70 game pace when he plays.

[bondom34]

I get that, but he was also a new player on a team with an offense unlike anything he's seen. So that's including all the learning too. Which is what makes how fast they were great kinda impressive, no? Like they are still figuring this whole thing out while on a 17 game win streak.

I don't really think it was a hard fit to put an all time great point guard in an offense by MDA. Felt mostly seamless just so Harden was willing to play some off guard too. And missing a third of the season feels like a lot. If you knock Embiid this is more.

Well I thought it was a good fit but I sure as heck heard everyone claim two ball dominate guys couldn't play together. They still aren't maximizing their value together, but it's getting there.

The difference in Embiid is that against the other players he's compared too, he looks to me their equal. Paul is top 5 in WS/48, BPM, 9th in PER, and Paul is number 1 in RPM (with harden 2nd). Also again the record, you can justify 32 minutes a game with paul if the team is winning at a 70 game pace when he plays.

The team was winning at a great pace without him too. Theyre a 5.1 net rating when he's on the bench. I don't have Embiid top 5 wither but his team is more reliant on him. And Paul's RPM has been overstated for years IMO.

Also if you thought the fit was good that should be what matters. I wouldn't take other peoples opinion into account for my own vote.

Edit. Checked Cleaning the Glass and their net rating is a 67 win pace when he's on and 57 off. Embiid is a 65 win pace on and 24 off. I'm not seeing Paul with a case over Embiid there.

[dhsilv2]

I don't really think it was a hard fit to put an all time great point guard in an offense by MDA. Felt mostly seamless just so Harden was willing to play some off guard too. And missing a third of the season feels like a lot. If you knock Embiid this is more.

Well I thought it was a good fit but I sure as heck heard everyone claim two ball dominate guys couldn't play together. They still aren't maximizing their value together, but it's getting there.

The difference in Embiid is that against the other players he's compared too, he looks to me their equal. Paul is top 5 in WS/48, BPM, 9th in PER, and Paul is number 1 in RPM (with harden 2nd). Also again the record, you can justify 32 minutes a game with paul if the team is winning at a 70 game pace when he plays.

The team was winning at a great pace without him too. Theyre a 5.1 net rating when he's on the bench. I don't have Embiid top 5 wither but his team is more reliant on him. And Paul's RPM has been overstated for years IMO.

Also if you thought the fit was good that should be what matters. I wouldn't take other peoples opinion into account for my own vote.

Edit. Checked Cleaning the Glass and their net rating is a 67 win pace when he's on and 57 off. Embiid is a 65 win pace on and 24 off. I'm not seeing Paul with a case over Embiid there.

That's a pretty strong case for Embiid!

Though not sure why RPM would overrate Paul or more to the point why on two different teams (very different) he'd remain so strong.

[bondom34]

Well I thought it was a good fit but I sure as heck heard everyone claim two ball dominate guys couldn't play together. They still aren't maximizing their value together, but it's getting there.

The difference in Embiid is that against the other players he's compared too, he looks to me their equal. Paul is top 5 in WS/48, BPM, 9th in PER, and Paul is number 1 in RPM (with harden 2nd). Also again the record, you can justify 32 minutes a game with paul if the team is winning at a 70 game pace when he plays.

The team was winning at a great pace without him too. Theyre a 5.1 net rating when he's on the bench. I don't have Embiid top 5 wither but his team is more reliant on him. And Paul's RPM has been overstated for years IMO.

Also if you thought the fit was good that should be what matters. I wouldn't take other peoples opinion into account for my own vote.

Edit. Checked Cleaning the Glass and their net rating is a 67 win pace when he's on and 57 off. Embiid is a 65 win pace on and 24 off. I'm not seeing Paul with a case over Embiid there.

That's a pretty strong case for Embiid!

Though not sure why RPM would overrate Paul or more to the point why on two different teams (very different) he'd remain so strong.

Heavy weight to the prior. Hes been great big I don't think he's been the best or 2nd best pg the last few years personally.

Just my opinion there though

[dhsilv2]

The team was winning at a great pace without him too. Theyre a 5.1 net rating when he's on the bench. I don't have Embiid top 5 wither but his team is more reliant on him. And Paul's RPM has been overstated for years IMO.

Also if you thought the fit was good that should be what matters. I wouldn't take other peoples opinion into account for my own vote.

Edit. Checked Cleaning the Glass and their net rating is a 67 win pace when he's on and 57 off. Embiid is a 65 win pace on and 24 off. I'm not seeing Paul with a case over Embiid there.

That's a pretty strong case for Embiid!

Though not sure why RPM would overrate Paul or more to the point why on two different teams (very different) he'd remain so strong.

Heavy weight to the prior. Hes been great big I don't think he's been the best or 2nd best pg the last few years personally.

Just my opinion there though

Paul's had great BPM numbers, but a westbrook or curry do too. I don't buy it. Is RAPM telling a different story?

[bondom34]

That's a pretty strong case for Embiid!

Though not sure why RPM would overrate Paul or more to the point why on two different teams (very different) he'd remain so strong.

Heavy weight to the prior. Hes been great big I don't think he's been the best or 2nd best pg the last few years personally.

Just my opinion there though

Paul's had great BPM numbers, but a westbrook or curry do too. I don't buy it. Is RAPM telling a different story?

Not really sure I follow. I think his prior years are still weighing too heavily even though he's been great is what I'm saying.

Also will need to see the playoffs too.

[dhsilv2]

Heavy weight to the prior. Hes been great big I don't think he's been the best or 2nd best pg the last few years personally.

Just my opinion there though

Paul's had great BPM numbers, but a westbrook or curry do too. I don't buy it. Is RAPM telling a different story?

Not really sure I follow. I think his prior years are still weighing too heavily even though he's been great is what I'm saying.

Also will need to see the playoffs too.

RPM is a single year metric. Or are you saying RAPM (prior informed) still has too much prior for this year to be useful?

[bondom34]

Paul's had great BPM numbers, but a westbrook or curry do too. I don't buy it. Is RAPM telling a different story?

Not really sure I follow. I think his prior years are still weighing too heavily even though he's been great is what I'm saying.

Also will need to see the playoffs too.

RPM is a single year metric. Or are you saying RAPM (prior informed) still has too much prior for this year to be useful?

I think Rpm has a prior too.

But I'd say for sure rapm does. I don't think Paul has been the best player or pg in the league and if I say that I inherently think rpm oveemrrates him

[dhsilv2]

Not really sure I follow. I think his prior years are still weighing too heavily even though he's been great is what I'm saying.

Also will need to see the playoffs too.

RPM is a single year metric. Or are you saying RAPM (prior informed) still has too much prior for this year to be useful?

I think Rpm has a prior too.

But I'd say for sure rapm does. I don't think Paul has been the best player or pg in the league and if I say that I inherently think rpm oveemrrates him

The RPM prior is box score and apparently height based. Not prior year informed. That much I am sure about RPM.

[bondom34]

RPM is a single year metric. Or are you saying RAPM (prior informed) still has too much prior for this year to be useful?

I think Rpm has a prior too.

But I'd say for sure rapm does. I don't think Paul has been the best player or pg in the league and if I say that I inherently think rpm oveemrrates him

The RPM prior is box score and apparently height based. Not prior year informed. That much I am sure about RPM.

I'm not totally sure the last part but I may be mistaken. I know rookies have a terribly low rpm every year.

[Bad Gatorade]

I think Rpm has a prior too.

But I'd say for sure rapm does. I don't think Paul has been the best player or pg in the league and if I say that I inherently think rpm oveemrrates him

The RPM prior is box score and apparently height based. Not prior year informed. That much I am sure about RPM.

I'm not totally sure the last part but I may be mistaken. I know rookies have a terribly low rpm every year.

RPM has a prior, but dhsilv2 is correct - the prior is box score and height based (although the height factor isn't overly large from what I know). Willing to bet that height has more of an impact on offensive/defensive split than total RPM. Only 2013-14 RPM (i.e. the very first year) used prior years in its calculations.

FWIW, the most recent rendition of single year RAPM available has Paul coming in at 3rd in the league - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1825430955&single=true

Now, single year RAPM is always a prickly beast, especially on a team with offensive weapons to the degree of Houston, so these numbers do need to be taken with a grain of salt. However...

It's also worth mentioning that without Harden, CP3 (per 100 possessions, 1363 total possessions) is averaging 37.1 points on 61 TS% and 15.8 assists with only 4.3 turnovers.

As a comparison, Harden's season last year was 38.4 points on 61.3 TS%, 14.8 assists with 7.6 turnovers (and clearly worse defence).

Playing against bench lineups or not, CP3, when free to do his thing, has been awesome for the Rockets (before the all star break anyway... his play certainly hasn't been "player of the year" worthy since then).

Generally, when Harden is on the court, CP3 lets Harden do his thing (and given how Harden has played offensively this year, plus CP3's physical state... rightfully so, IMO) and then CP3 lets loose when Harden is on the bench. Now, this has impact implications, because there is clearly a lot of collinearity with this Houston squad, and RAPM might have trouble allotting the correct impact numbers to everybody. And the impact numbers probably aren't fully correct either, because the solution to RAPM is more linear than actual basketball is. But hey, when almost everything (box score, raw plus/minus, RAPM etc) places CP3 as well as he does... he's probably had a good season.

FWIW, I probably wouldn't put CP3 in the top 3 of my ballot, because he's missed quite a lot of time. But he has generally been fairly awesome when healthy. But I think Curry has been better, and has played more, so he'd clearly be ahead of CP3 IMO, and even if Harden/CP3 are in the ballpark of one another (as most impact numbers seem to be suggesting), Harden's load and better health clearly shift him ahead of CP3 on a single season basis. Plus, you've got guys like Davis/Giannis, who have been available to play (despite Davis' frequent locker room trips) and been very impressive in their own right.

I dunno - injuries have really thrown a giant spanner into the works of the PoY ballot. It's crazy - it feels like NBA talent is at an all time high, but there haven't been many "dominant seasons" this year, simply because guys like Paul, Curry, Butler, Kawhi etc have all faced these dastardly injury problems.

After Harden... I really don't know who I'd pick at this point.