Really, where do we stand?

[CobraCommander]

Tier1- Rockets and Warriors
Tier2- Cavs
Tier3 - All of the rest of playoff teams...if healthy. I think the rest of the teams could win or lose a 7 game series to each other and no one should be surprised.

The Wiz at full strength would be favorites in a series against a lot of the teams you have in tier3 and 4 if we took it to Vegas (Portland-Twolves-Pelicans)

This.

Rockets and Warriors are a class to themselves. The Warriors are better, but I give the Rockets at least a 25% chance of winning a 7-game series, so that makes them contenders. Nobody else has better than a 5% chance of defeating the Warriors.

The Cavs are a tier above everyone else because of Lebron. In the playoffs, when he is rested and motivated, he is still the most unstoppable player in the game. As long as Cleveland's other players can play a little D and hit open 3's, they're the favorites in the East.

The rest of the top 10 or so teams are all about the same. Toronto is probably a bit better than most, but other than them, I see little separation between San Antonio, OKC, New Orleans, Portland, Minnesota, Washington, Boston, and Philly. Any one of those teams could beat another, it will depend on matchups and hot shooting.

you said it better than me...but i agree.

[benb331]

Personally, I think the Wiz stand in as good a position as anyone in the East. If John can integrate with the flow of the team, the Wizards have depth at all positions that their competitors lack. Brooks has options to mix it up, but clearly members of this board (me included) have been a bit frustrated at his rotations. Almost every night, there's a favorable matchup to exploit. Chemistry when John returns and Brooks' rotations are going to determine the outcome of this season. I'm hopeful.

[payitforward]

I look at it this way.

There's two teams capable of winning it all:
Warriors & Rockets

There's 4 teams in the East with a legitimate shot at getting to the NBA finals:
Cavs, Celtics, Raptors & Wizards...

I agree about the Warriors & Rockets.

But, how you can claim we have a "legitimate shot" at the NBA finals I'll never understand.

I'd say we have "a legitimate shot" at getting out of R1 of the playoffs, b/c we've actually done that. But there's nothing I'd say gives us that kind of standing to go any further.

Now, I don't mean we won't go further. Can't say that -- any more than one could say that it's 100% for the Warriors or Rockets to win the title. Anything can happen. Just w/ more or less likelihood.

We have a very difficult schedule the rest of the way. It's going to be unlikely that we have home court advantage in R1. Our 2 most likely candidates for R1 opponents have both played well against us.

Even leaving all that aside, just looking at our personnel, how is this a team w/ a legitimate chance at the NBA Finals? As I say, anything can happen. We can hope that John Wall comes back & immediately plays at his career best level. That Mike Scott returns to his early season form. That Mahinmi produces at his very top efficiency level, including not fouling as much. That Jodie Meeks becomes the old Jodie Meeks. Etc. etc. etc.

But, that's all "hope." Would be great but for all that to happen...?

No "hope" involved. I'm talking playoffs, not playoff seedings. I'm talking if Wall comes back and returns to career norms. We can beat any team in the East this year - even moreso than last year with the development of Porter, Oubre & Sato. We can also lose to any of the playoff teams as well - especially Toronto, Boston or Cleveland.

I know it eats you alive that someone would dare be positive but it really doesn't matter that there are 10 teams better than the Wizards with an injured John Wall --- we don't need to beat 10 teams to make it to the finals --- only 3 Eastern teams. Considering how well we've played and haven't had a typical Wall type impact this season, its not a ridiculous stretch to say we got more than a puncher's chance of winning the East if he comes back healthy.

Dat... chill w/ the idea that I don't like, or want to be, "positive." I was positive about Porter long before you were! I was positive about Beal when most people here were calling him a bust (not pointing at you on that one, however). I was positive about Satoransky's performance before you (doesn't mean he was a good pick, of course). & I'm pretty sure I was more positive about Oubre -- both as a pick & about his development -- sooner than you.

I have no problem w/ the two statements of yours I've put in bold: if Wall comes back & right away plays at the level of his previous couple of years, sure, we have -- as you say -- "more than a puncher's chance of winning the East." Especially if someone else manages to eliminate Cleveland -- just b/c of LeBron.

But that's different from saying we have "a legitimate shot at the NBA Finals" -- that's a drastic overstatement. A team has "a legitimate" shot at doing something it's shown it can do. We've shown we can get to R2 of the playoffs. That's it. That's what this team has shown it can do.

Plus, you are making it depend on Wall coming back at his peak level. That would be great, of course. But, once you hang it on that, we are no longer in "legitimate shot" land & not by a long stretch. We are, precisely, in the land of "hope" -- & like you I hope Wall comes back right at his peak -- hell, at a new peak! As long as we're hoping, why not hope a little more?

I'm not being negative when I think of that as kind of unrealistic. It usually doesn't work that way, that's all. &... though I hate even to say this... John isn't back yet at all! We don't know when he'll return. The sooner he does the sooner he'll be back in form.

I the rest of the team better this year than last? Maybe a little. Otto this year is about the same as Otto last year. Beal was off for a long while from last year's numbers, but he does seem to be as productive now as last year. We definitely have some better bench players. But, Gortat is a little off & playing fewer minutes, Mahinmi hasn't been nearly as good as he was in the minutes we got from him last year, Scott has fallen through the floor. & Oubre hasn't sustained his big early-season improvements. Of course, the biggest improvement has been from Sato -- but once Wall comes back, his minutes will drop substantially.

It's easy to know how good our team is -- how good any team is. You look at the team's record. That's how good the team is. Right now we're the 5th best team in the East, & we have a very very tough last 15 games ahead of us to close out the season.

I hope we do well enough to get a favorable R1 match-up. I hope we win R1 & get a favorable R2 match-up. I hope we do something we haven't done in many decades -- actually get out of R2. & then I hope we win the ECF.

But none of that amounts to "we have a legitimate shot at the NBA Finals." No, Dat, we sure don't. We just hope it happens anyway!

[Dat2U]

Dat... chill w/ the idea that I don't like, or want to be, "positive." I was positive about Porter long before you were! I was positive about Beal when most people here were calling him a bust (not pointing at you on that one, however). I was positive about Satoransky's performance before you (doesn't mean he was a good pick, of course). & I'm pretty sure I was more positive about Oubre -- both as a pick & about his development -- sooner than you.

I have no problem w/ the two statements of yours I've put in bold: if Wall comes back & right away plays at the level of his previous couple of years, sure, we have -- as you say -- "more than a puncher's chance of winning the East." Especially if someone else manages to eliminate Cleveland -- just b/c of LeBron.

But that's different from saying we have "a legitimate shot at the NBA Finals" -- that's a drastic overstatement. A team has "a legitimate" shot at doing something it's shown it can do. We've shown we can get to R2 of the playoffs. That's it. That's what this team has shown it can do.

Plus, you are making it depend on Wall coming back at his peak level. That would be great, of course. But, once you hang it on that, we are no longer in "legitimate shot" land & not by a long stretch. We are, precisely, in the land of "hope" -- & like you I hope Wall comes back right at his peak -- hell, at a new peak! As long as we're hoping, why not hope a little more?

I'm not being negative when I think of that as kind of unrealistic. It usually doesn't work that way, that's all. &... though I hate even to say this... John isn't back yet at all! We don't know when he'll return. The sooner he does the sooner he'll be back in form.

I the rest of the team better this year than last? Maybe a little. Otto this year is about the same as Otto last year. Beal was off for a long while from last year's numbers, but he does seem to be as productive now as last year. We definitely have some better bench players. But, Gortat is a little off & playing fewer minutes, Mahinmi hasn't been nearly as good as he was in the minutes we got from him last year, Scott has fallen through the floor. & Oubre hasn't sustained his big early-season improvements. Of course, the biggest improvement has been from Sato -- but once Wall comes back, his minutes will drop substantially.

It's easy to know how good our team is -- how good any team is. You look at the team's record. That's how good the team is. Right now we're the 5th best team in the East, & we have a very very tough last 15 games ahead of us to close out the season.

I hope we do well enough to get a favorable R1 match-up. I hope we win R1 & get a favorable R2 match-up. I hope we do something we haven't done in many decades -- actually get out of R2. & then I hope we win the ECF.

But none of that amounts to "we have a legitimate shot at the NBA Finals." No, Dat, we sure don't. We just hope it happens anyway!

Woah. A lot to digest there. I won't get in a back-n-forth on my record vs yours. I don't know why you felt the need to do it while misleading what I've stated in the past.

I also never stated i expected Wall coming back at his peak level. I said career norms. That would mean NOT at his career peak! I was thinking 19 & 10, 52-53% TS and hopefully good defense. I expect him to be better than he's been this season b/c obviously he should be healthier.

Sato will of course lose some minutes but he's versatile to slide to the 2 or 3 and play with Wall.

Were 5th in the East. Were one game from being 3rd in the East. Were also 2.5 from being 8th. There also has been a ton a bad losses to non-playoff teams.

If i had to put odds on the East I'd say:

Toronto - 25%
Cleveland - 25%
Boston - 20%
Washington - 20%
Field - 10%

That's what I mean we I say we have a legitumate chance in a wide open East. I can see a scenario where we go to the finals, lose in first round & everything in between, it's that type of year. Matchups do matter, i never said it didn't. Facing Toronto in the 1st roung as the 8th seed in a worse case scenario to end the regular season wouldn't be ideal, but to imagine the Wizards winning that series doesn't feel like a huge stretch.

[BigA]

I'm concerned that the way Brooks coaches at the end of close games will be a liability in the playoffs against teams that the Wizards otherwise match up well with.

Hopeful that Wall can come back healthy and better than he was earlier in the year.