The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[Litany]

I didn't expect listening to a podcast to move people from their stance completely, just hoping to have people see that many following this believe this to be a close race. You have your guy, fine, but it is a close race even if you don't want to see why.

I saw this link on another thread...I think the per 100 possessions can be enlightening, after all, the defensive efficiency numbers rely on the per 100 possessions information.

This filter shows those that have 30+ pts, 5+ assists, and 2+ steals per 100 possessions in their rookie year. Donovan in pretty good company

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&type=per_poss&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c1stat=pts_per_poss&c1comp=gt&c1val=30&c2stat=stl_per_poss&c2comp=gt&c2val=2&c3stat=ast_per_poss&c3comp=gt&c3val=5&order_by=pts_per_poss&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#stats

[Winglish]

I didn't expect listening to a podcast to move people from their stance completely, just hoping to have people see that many following this believe this to be a close race. You have your guy, fine, but it is a close race even if you don't want to see why.

I saw this link on another thread...I think the per 100 possessions can be enlightening, after all, the defensive efficiency numbers rely on the per 100 possessions information.

This filter shows those that have 30+ pts, 5+ assists, and 2+ steals per 100 possessions in their rookie year. Donovan in pretty good company

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&type=per_poss&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c1stat=pts_per_poss&c1comp=gt&c1val=30&c2stat=stl_per_poss&c2comp=gt&c2val=2&c3stat=ast_per_poss&c3comp=gt&c3val=5&order_by=pts_per_poss&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#stats

Holy cow. Post that again.

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[Kobblehead]

Mitchell carried the team while Gobert injuried. The 76ers and Jazz currently have similar records . Do you think the 6ers would have the same record today If Embiid miss 26 games this year?

Rudy Gobert is a role playing big and the Jazz have Derrick Favors as a reserve. Embiid is a star and we have Amir Johnson as his back-up.

[Hedda Gambler]

Mitchell carried the team while Gobert injuried. The 76ers and Jazz currently have similar records . Do you think the 6ers would have the same record today If Embiid miss 26 games this year?

Rudy Gobert is a role playing big and the Jazz have Derrick Favors as a reserve. Embiid is a star and we have Amir Johnson as his back-up.

Dude, do yourself a favour and watch some Jazz games if this really is your honest opinion about Rudy.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Mitchell carried the team while Gobert injuried. The 76ers and Jazz currently have similar records . Do you think the 6ers would have the same record today If Embiid miss 26 games this year?

Rudy Gobert is a role playing big and the Jazz have Derrick Favors as a reserve. Embiid is a star and we have Amir Johnson as his back-up.

nah

[deflated]

I didn't expect listening to a podcast to move people from their stance completely, just hoping to have people see that many following this believe this to be a close race. You have your guy, fine, but it is a close race even if you don't want to see why.

I saw this link on another thread...I think the per 100 possessions can be enlightening, after all, the defensive efficiency numbers rely on the per 100 possessions information.

This filter shows those that have 30+ pts, 5+ assists, and 2+ steals per 100 possessions in their rookie year. Donovan in pretty good company

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&type=per_poss&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c1stat=pts_per_poss&c1comp=gt&c1val=30&c2stat=stl_per_poss&c2comp=gt&c2val=2&c3stat=ast_per_poss&c3comp=gt&c3val=5&order_by=pts_per_poss&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#stats

That podcast hurt your case, not helped - when they are so misinformed about one of the players I wonder if that sort of wilful ignorance is driving the whole debate.

This link is much better, Mitchell's numbers can speak for themselves.

[CoreyGallagher]

This filter shows those that have 30+ pts, 5+ assists, and 2+ steals per 100 possessions in their rookie year. Donovan in pretty good company

That is cool and Mitchell is having an impressive season.

Do something similar to this for Simmons and he's the only rookie in their database (believe since 1983) with 22+ points, 10+ assists, and 10+ rebounds per 100 possessions. Lower the qualifier to 9+ assists and 9+ rebounds and Magic Johnson joins him.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Z6t63

In fact only Lebron, Magic, Hill, and Westbrook have ever put up those numbers per 100 possessions in any of the seasons in their careers.
http://bkref.com/tiny/LW4uI

[Litany]

This filter shows those that have 30+ pts, 5+ assists, and 2+ steals per 100 possessions in their rookie year. Donovan in pretty good company

That is cool and Mitchell is having an impressive season.

Do something similar to this for Simmons and he's the only rookie in their database (believe since 1983) with 22+ points, 10+ assists, and 10+ rebounds per 100 possessions. Lower the qualifier to 9+ assists and 9+ rebounds and Magic Johnson joins him.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Z6t63

In fact only Lebron, Magic, Hill, and Westbrook have ever put up those numbers per 100 possessions in any of the seasons in their careers.
http://bkref.com/tiny/LW4uI

Ha, that is just awesome. Love these websites so we can filter these stats to see these things. This rookie class is awesome and these two, i don't think it's crazy to say they're looking like future HOFer's

[nurseryc]

Donovan Mitchell made just 4 of 15 shots from the field today. Not sure why he is continually being given a licence by the coach to take as many shots as he wants, when he regularly shoots at such poor percentages. Especially when you have players like Ingles on the team who is ten times the shooter that Mitchell is and shoots way better percentages, yet he gets far less shots. If Mitchell wasnt a rookie and was shooting like this in his second season, he would be getting hammered. The Jazz continued their win streak today despite the high volume shots and poor shooting by Mitchell.

[vossy_3]

Mitchell carried the team while Gobert injuried. The 76ers and Jazz currently have similar records . Do you think the 6ers would have the same record today If Embiid miss 26 games this year?

Rudy Gobert is a role playing big and the Jazz have Derrick Favors as a reserve. Embiid is a star and we have Amir Johnson as his back-up.

I’m a Sixers fan... and this is not true.

I would argue that Gobert has been better then Embiid over the past 10 games or so.

Gobert is a better rebounder and shot blocker and has much more stamina.

Embiid is better offensively and is a better overall defender.

Both can have lapses and commit dumb turnovers.

Pretty much both suit there respective team, Embiid scores more which allows Simmons to do everything else. Gobert defends and hustles on offense whilst Mitchell takes up the scoring load.

[stitches]

Donovan Mitchell made just 4 of 15 shots from the field today. Not sure why he is continually being given a licence by the coach to take as many shots as he wants, when he regularly shoots at such poor percentages. Especially when you have players like Ingles on the team who is ten times the shooter that Mitchell is and shoots way better percentages, yet he gets far less shots. If Mitchell wasnt a rookie and was shooting like this in his second season, he would be getting hammered. The Jazz continued their win streak today despite the high volume shots and poor shooting by Mitchell.

WTF are you talking about? 15 shots in 34 minutes is not high volume. It's even low for a primary creator. He's also the only reliable player who can consistently create his own offense on the Jazz. This is why he's given license to shoot. Because he's the only one on the Jazz who can do it. For as good of a shooter as Ingles is, he is not a high volume offensive creator and if he was asked to do what Mitchell is doing his efficiency will be much worse.

It's almost as if when a player shoots all the easy shots he will shoot better. It's almost as if when a player is relied to create on-ball his %s are not as good as those of a player who shoots only open jumpers and layups. What a shocker! Are we still pretending that Mitchell is inefficient chucker? Seriously? Didn't that narrative die after the first two-three weeks of the season or so?

It's also kind of peculiar how selective you are with your slander. Like you know... popping in here once a month to note Mitchell's worst game of the month or so while ignoring all the good games. Oh well... if this is what floats your boat, keep doing it. I hope it makes you happy.

[stitches]

Also, the whole "Utah is carried by Mitchell" thing is exhausting to me. Rudy Gobert is the unquestioned MVP of that team, but even Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio provide more shot creation and defense than every other player on the Sixers team besides Joel Embiid. It's just a really solid team and much more balanced than the Sixers.

It's really easy to filter out the minutes with and without Gobert/Embiid and see how each impacts their respective team with or without Mitchell/Simmons. The reality is Embiid and Gobert are the unquestionable MVPs of PHI and UTA and neither of the rookies has been able to produce wins without them. I'm sick of this argument "Mitchell doesn't carry Utah to wins by himself"... well duh! Pretty much no rookie ever does that. You mean if we took out a second team All-NBA center off of a team that already lacks high end talent, that team won't perform as well as with this All-NBA center?!? Oh wow! What a shocker! Now why don't you take the next step and ask yourself what does SImmons do without Embiid? Lets see what the numbers actually show:

by NBAwowy:

Gobert+Mitchell: +5.7
Embiid+Simmons: +14.1(holy smokes this is awesome and bodes well for PHI's future!!! Eastern conf teams should be trying hard to avoid PHI in the playoffs when this combo will play heavy minutes together)

Mitchell-Gobert: -0.7
Simmons-Embiid: -6.6

Gobert-Mitchell: +1.4
Embiid-Simmons: +2.1

So who carries what?

[dr0welf]

These guys (Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux) dove into discussion about awards. They both agree Simmons has the edge for ROY, but it isn't an easy pick.

Simmons fans constantly posting the same "THIS ESSSNTTT EVEN CLOSE WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU" should take the time to listen to this and remove the emotion and try to be objective. It isn't as clear cut as you want it to be.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/duncdon/2018/03/07/awards-through-february-mvp-all-nba-coy-roy-and-more

Next response from people who want to downplay it is "they only do this to create a narrative" sigh. At that point I can't help you if you want to reject everyone who wants to argue it's a real race.

I really enjoy listening to their podcasts, but both live in the West coast and I'd question if they are sufficiently informed about Simmons. Not blaming them, you can't watch every team in the end. You can tell they don't watch the Sixers as much, most of their arguments are read of the stat sheet.

"Oh, Ben Simmons has more blocks than I thought."
"I bet that he's making less than 20% of his shots beyond 16 feet."
It's actually 42.3% according to NBA stats if you subtract the 10 heaves.
"Ben Simmons benefits a lot from being the number 3 big, next to Joel Embiid and Robert Covington"
Haha okay, Ben Simmons shares the defensive task with guarding the opponent's PG with Robert Covington in the starting and closing lineup.
"In terms of RPM they're really similar"
Ah so 2.58 and 1.04 is really similar now?

So they discussed the following things, that made it close.

Defense
Is there really an argument who is the better defender between the two? Mitchell does a fine job at the perimeter, he's not a liability, which is extremely impressive as a rookie. However Simmons is a difference maker at that end, can guard 1-4 (even 5 at times) and creates a huge amount of deflections, steals and blocks.

Turnovers
Simmons turns the ball over, a lot, certainly compared to Donovan Mitchell. However, when you're tasked to create for others you will automatically turn the ball over more as well. In the end Simmons has a 2.14 AST/TOV ratio and Mitchell a 1.30 AST/TOV ratio.

Even after this pod, I listen to the arguments, and I still have to hear/see someone make a good case for Mitchell to be honest. Mitchell has has some tremendous scoring outbursts, but in the end he scores just 3 PPG more than Simmons on similar efficiency. Is that really enough to outweigh all the other things Simmons does?

Also, the whole "Utah is carried by Mitchell" thing is exhausting to me. Rudy Gobert is the unquestioned MVP of that team, but even Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio provide more shot creation and defense than every other player on the Sixers team besides Joel Embiid. It's just a really solid team and much more balanced than the Sixers.

It's really easy to filter out the minutes with and without Gobert/Embiid and see how each impacts their respective team with or without Mitchell/Simmons. The reality is Embiid and Gobert are the unquestionable MVPs of PHI and UTA and neither of the rookies has been able to produce wins without them. I'm sick of this argument "Mitchell doesn't carry Utah"... well duh! Pretty much no rookie ever does that. You mean if we took out a second team All-NBA center off of a team that already lacks high end talent, that team won't perform as well as with this All-NBA center?!? Oh wow! What a shocker! Now why don't you take the next step and ask yourself what does SImmons do without Embiid? Lets see what the numbers actually show:

by NBAwowy:

Gobert+Mitchell: +5.7
Embiid+Simmons: +14.1(holy smokes this is awesome and bodes well for PHI's future!!! Eastern conf teams should be trying hard to avoid PHI in the playoffs when this combo will play heavy minutes together)

Mitchell-Gobert: -0.7
Simmons-Embiid: -6.6

Gobert-Mitchell: +1.4
Embiid-Simmons: +2.1

So who carries what?

That's great analysis showing the impacts with and without their star centers. Both teams have solid futures ahead of them if they can keep their core players together.

[kuclas]

Sixers are 32-21 with Joel Embiid playing this year. And 3-8 without embiid in the lineup. Forget all the other analytic crap. Simmons cannot carry the sixers as a rookie. Maybe in future years.

No rookie in today’s nba game can carry an nba team especially one with only one year college experience.

The only “rookie” I can remeber who had significant impact on teams performance was 4 year college player David Robinson Plus 2 years navy commitment. So Robinson was not ur typical “rookie”

Saying that. I think Simmons will still win the rookie of the year going away. More national tv exposure alone. But he’s had solid season. Mitchell plays in small market. And maybe suffers Damian Lillard syndrome. Where voters forget about him.

[Kobblehead]

Being a mid-to-high volume scorer at modest efficiency is impressive for a rookie, but Simmons has been outstanding across multiple facets. He's clearly the superior basketball talent and player.

The only case I see being made for Mitchell would be the natural rookie thing. Which shouldn't be a legitimate case because the rules are the rules. Until they change the criteria for RotY eligibility, that should be disregarded.

[CoreyGallagher]

Also, the whole "Utah is carried by Mitchell" thing is exhausting to me. Rudy Gobert is the unquestioned MVP of that team, but even Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio provide more shot creation and defense than every other player on the Sixers team besides Joel Embiid. It's just a really solid team and much more balanced than the Sixers.

It's really easy to filter out the minutes with and without Gobert/Embiid and see how each impacts their respective team with or without Mitchell/Simmons. The reality is Embiid and Gobert are the unquestionable MVPs of PHI and UTA and neither of the rookies has been able to produce wins without them. I'm sick of this argument "Mitchell doesn't carry Utah to wins by himself"... well duh! Pretty much no rookie ever does that. You mean if we took out a second team All-NBA center off of a team that already lacks high end talent, that team won't perform as well as with this All-NBA center?!? Oh wow! What a shocker! Now why don't you take the next step and ask yourself what does SImmons do without Embiid? Lets see what the numbers actually show:

by NBAwowy:

Gobert+Mitchell: +5.7
Embiid+Simmons: +14.1(holy smokes this is awesome and bodes well for PHI's future!!! Eastern conf teams should be trying hard to avoid PHI in the playoffs when this combo will play heavy minutes together)

Mitchell-Gobert: -0.7
Simmons-Embiid: -6.6

Gobert-Mitchell: +1.4
Embiid-Simmons: +2.1

So who carries what?

I suggest not using NBAwowy unless you absolutely have to, such as removing multiple players since it seems to be the only site that seems to allow it, but then you're using a site that may be wrong because those numbers are wrong (at least compared to NBA.com - which I trust much more).

[stitches]

Also, the whole "Utah is carried by Mitchell" thing is exhausting to me. Rudy Gobert is the unquestioned MVP of that team, but even Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio provide more shot creation and defense than every other player on the Sixers team besides Joel Embiid. It's just a really solid team and much more balanced than the Sixers.

It's really easy to filter out the minutes with and without Gobert/Embiid and see how each impacts their respective team with or without Mitchell/Simmons. The reality is Embiid and Gobert are the unquestionable MVPs of PHI and UTA and neither of the rookies has been able to produce wins without them. I'm sick of this argument "Mitchell doesn't carry Utah to wins by himself"... well duh! Pretty much no rookie ever does that. You mean if we took out a second team All-NBA center off of a team that already lacks high end talent, that team won't perform as well as with this All-NBA center?!? Oh wow! What a shocker! Now why don't you take the next step and ask yourself what does SImmons do without Embiid? Lets see what the numbers actually show:

by NBAwowy:

Gobert+Mitchell: +5.7
Embiid+Simmons: +14.1(holy smokes this is awesome and bodes well for PHI's future!!! Eastern conf teams should be trying hard to avoid PHI in the playoffs when this combo will play heavy minutes together)

Mitchell-Gobert: -0.7
Simmons-Embiid: -6.6

Gobert-Mitchell: +1.4
Embiid-Simmons: +2.1

So who carries what?

I suggest not using NBAwowy unless you absolutely have to, such as removing multiple players since it seems to be the only place that allows it, but then you're using a site that may be wrong because those numbers are wrong.

How wrong are they? I know they use some estimation instead of exact possession counts(I think, or was that bball ref?), but they must still produce somewhat of a good approximation. What other site can I use? Can you give us the exact numbers?

[CoreyGallagher]

How wrong are they? I know they use some estimation instead of exact possession counts(I think, or was that bball ref?), but they must still produce somewhat of a good approximation. What other site can I use? Can you give us the exact numbers?

I'd use NBA.com. Altho, as I mentioned, I'm not sure there are other sites that can allow you to remove multiple players, so I'd use wowy for that, otherwise I'd just stick to the official.


Gobert with Mitchell: +7.3
Embiid with Simmons: +13.6

Mitchell without Gobert: -0.6
Simmons without Embiid: -3.9

Gobert without Mitchell: +0.6
Embiid without Simmons: +1.2

Now consider this...

Simmons with Amir (back-up Center) is -1.7
Simmons with Holmes (third string Center) is +0.7

So it's not our back-up Centers... Oh yeah...

Simmons with Okafor was -52.1 in 23 minutes. Which a net rating that poor in even that few minutes (2% of the minutes without Embiid) can noticeably affect the overall net.

[eminence]

How wrong are they? I know they use some estimation instead of exact possession counts(I think, or was that bball ref?), but they must still produce somewhat of a good approximation. What other site can I use? Can you give us the exact numbers?

Nah, Evan at NBA-WOWY uses the real possessions, it's bbref that uses estimates.

[Kolkmania]

Also, the whole "Utah is carried by Mitchell" thing is exhausting to me. Rudy Gobert is the unquestioned MVP of that team, but even Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio provide more shot creation and defense than every other player on the Sixers team besides Joel Embiid. It's just a really solid team and much more balanced than the Sixers.

It's really easy to filter out the minutes with and without Gobert/Embiid and see how each impacts their respective team with or without Mitchell/Simmons. The reality is Embiid and Gobert are the unquestionable MVPs of PHI and UTA and neither of the rookies has been able to produce wins without them. I'm sick of this argument "Mitchell doesn't carry Utah to wins by himself"... well duh! Pretty much no rookie ever does that. You mean if we took out a second team All-NBA center off of a team that already lacks high end talent, that team won't perform as well as with this All-NBA center?!? Oh wow! What a shocker! Now why don't you take the next step and ask yourself what does SImmons do without Embiid? Lets see what the numbers actually show:

by NBAwowy:

Gobert+Mitchell: +5.7
Embiid+Simmons: +14.1(holy smokes this is awesome and bodes well for PHI's future!!! Eastern conf teams should be trying hard to avoid PHI in the playoffs when this combo will play heavy minutes together)

Mitchell-Gobert: -0.7
Simmons-Embiid: -6.6

Gobert-Mitchell: +1.4
Embiid-Simmons: +2.1

So who carries what?

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Simmons is carrying Philly. Rational fans agree that Gobert and Embiid are the MVP's of their team, however multiple players, reporters and TV personalities imply that Mitchell caries the Jazz due to his PPG. That bothers me somehow.

I do think that Simmons is the second most important player on this team, during this winning streak for the Jazz I might lean towards Joe Ingles.