Luka Doncic Part III

Draft talk all year round

Moderators: Duke4life831, Marcus

User avatar
SportsGuy8
Starter
Posts: 2,160
And1: 1,050
Joined: Jun 17, 2006

Re: Luca Doncic Part III 

Post#21 » by SportsGuy8 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:57 am

realEAST wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:
realEAST wrote:I've been thinking about it a bit, and since my Bulls seem to be out of position to get Doncic, I'd like to see him go to Memphis the most.

No. 1, it is small market carrying less pressure, but one where he would be seen as clear franchise centerpiece for future, and important player right away imo.

He'd benefit from playing along a PG like Conley who imo is perfect guard along Doncic, especially as he matures, both as type of player (defense, floor general, shooter) and mentor. Also there is Gasol there who should make aclimatisation at least a bit easier. Also, Doncic imo works better with this type of C than strictly athletic beasts with little offensive game, as seen with Reyes this year. Also, having Green and Brooks as players who fit 3&D profile around him, along very good defenders in Conley and Gasol, should make it easier on defense initially as wing, SF.

Also, fact they'd look to be competitive would work as positive for him given his competitive spirit and fact that he has so far played his best in important games; but also fact he wouldn't be the primary focus of opp defenses, and would have room to play and improve (having ball in his hands with 2nd unit).

Lineup of Conley-Brooks-Doncic-Green-Gasol would be pretty interesting as a team, and good for Doncic development imo since it would offer a chance of competitive basketball, as well enough room and lack of pressure so he could develop. Amd he offers Grizzlies just what they lack, now and in the future.

There's a long-term problem with Memphis in that they would simply immediately be at least a borderline playoff team with that lineup, but obviously nowhere near good enough to be contenders. And if Doncic does end up becoming a real star, he could end up being on a pretender/treadmill team for his whole career, even after Gasol gets too old, with draft picks in the 15-20 range. Even if a team is very smart, picking in that range is still a crapshoot. And you can forget about good FA signings in Memphis.


I think they'd have two good seasons befor Gasol expires and Conley enters last year being 32/33, and with Doncic being only 21/22 at that point, and imo not yet developed enough to single handedly lead the team to PO, next two season could be ones to add talent through draft. And if he really is good enough to make a bad team fringe playoff at the age of 22, then there could be at least some second tier star interested in going there.

The problem is that both Gasol and Conley aren't just going to fall off the cliff. If they draft Doncic and he ends up being good, they're going to resign and then they're SLOWLY going to get worse, while Doncic is slowly going to improve during that same time, leading to a typical treadmill team, or pretender at best (and hope to win the jackpot with mid-1st round picks).
Image
User avatar
CptCrunch
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 4,697
Joined: Jun 30, 2016
   

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#22 » by CptCrunch » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:54 pm

1UPZ wrote:
paulbball wrote:Anyone drafting Ayton over him will be making a humongous mistake. Ayton is not a top 3 prospect this draft.

Doncic is the clear number 1.



Doncic is a beast

but to\say Ayton is not top 3 is nuts..

He's top 3 in almost everyones rankings...


The classic hive mind mentality. I'm telling you Ayton is not good.

He has extremely poor awareness as a result of poor basketball IQ. His chances of becoming a bluechip prospect is very poor in my opinion. In addition, he has a multitude of other flaws.
User avatar
SportsGuy8
Starter
Posts: 2,160
And1: 1,050
Joined: Jun 17, 2006

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#23 » by SportsGuy8 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:32 pm

I wouldn't say that Ayton's poor awareness is necessarily a result of a poor basketball IQ. Some people just lack awareness, the ability to concentrate on the task etc. Even many of the smartest people on the planet are like that.

Either way, his lack of awareness is indeed worrisome. He seems a good example of a player that could seriously struggle vs. more experienced players who are able to read his robotic predetermined moves (that are a result of his lack of awareness).
Image
User avatar
CptCrunch
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 4,697
Joined: Jun 30, 2016
   

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#24 » by CptCrunch » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:45 pm

SportsGuy8 wrote:I wouldn't say that Ayton's poor awareness is necessarily a result of a poor basketball IQ. Some people just lack awareness, the ability to concentrate on the task etc. Even many of the smartest people on the planet are like that.

Either way, his lack of awareness is indeed worrisome. He seems a good example of a player that could seriously struggle vs. more experienced players who are able to read his robotic predetermined moves (that are a result of his lack of awareness).


Basketball IQ is just the catch all terms for all the non (yet) measurable aspects of basketball.

Through all my years of basketball, I have never seen a dumb player become a smart one, never seen a player with terrible feel like Ayton become good feel one.

You can become more skilled, stronger and faster, but your horrid feel will barely improve.

Want to see someone with amazing feel for the game? Doncic is anti-Ayton. All the feels needed to succeed. Same for JJJ and Bagley.
Saciid11
General Manager
Posts: 8,572
And1: 4,225
Joined: May 22, 2009

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#25 » by Saciid11 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:14 pm

paulbball wrote:Anyone drafting Ayton over him will be making a humongous mistake. Ayton is not a top 3 prospect this draft.

Doncic is the clear number 1.


Ayton is the clear #1 in this draft followed by Bagley and Bamba . Anyone GM who passes up the only big man who can challenge Embiid for the title of best center in the league couple years should be fired...
realEAST
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,855
And1: 1,347
Joined: Mar 25, 2016
   

Re: Luca Doncic Part III 

Post#26 » by realEAST » Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:29 pm

SportsGuy8 wrote:
realEAST wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:There's a long-term problem with Memphis in that they would simply immediately be at least a borderline playoff team with that lineup, but obviously nowhere near good enough to be contenders. And if Doncic does end up becoming a real star, he could end up being on a pretender/treadmill team for his whole career, even after Gasol gets too old, with draft picks in the 15-20 range. Even if a team is very smart, picking in that range is still a crapshoot. And you can forget about good FA signings in Memphis.


I think they'd have two good seasons befor Gasol expires and Conley enters last year being 32/33, and with Doncic being only 21/22 at that point, and imo not yet developed enough to single handedly lead the team to PO, next two season could be ones to add talent through draft. And if he really is good enough to make a bad team fringe playoff at the age of 22, then there could be at least some second tier star interested in going there.

The problem is that both Gasol and Conley aren't just going to fall off the cliff. If they draft Doncic and he ends up being good, they're going to resign and then they're SLOWLY going to get worse, while Doncic is slowly going to improve during that same time, leading to a typical treadmill team, or pretender at best (and hope to win the jackpot with mid-1st round picks).


I think that will be the decision for their FO to make on the move, since it is hard and there really isn't much point into predicting and deciding those things at this moment. If Doncic develops quickly, and those two decline at slower rate, you re sign them and have good team with room to add fine complimentary pieces. If it is the opposite case and Doncic takes a bit longer to reach his peak level, while Conley and Gasol have sharper decline, you don't resign them, and tank a year or two while giving reigns to Doncic, hoping you land another star caliber prospect.
User avatar
SportsGuy8
Starter
Posts: 2,160
And1: 1,050
Joined: Jun 17, 2006

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#27 » by SportsGuy8 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:18 pm

paulbball wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:I wouldn't say that Ayton's poor awareness is necessarily a result of a poor basketball IQ. Some people just lack awareness, the ability to concentrate on the task etc. Even many of the smartest people on the planet are like that.

Either way, his lack of awareness is indeed worrisome. He seems a good example of a player that could seriously struggle vs. more experienced players who are able to read his robotic predetermined moves (that are a result of his lack of awareness).


Basketball IQ is just the catch all terms for all the non (yet) measurable aspects of basketball.

Through all my years of basketball, I have never seen a dumb player become a smart one, never seen a player with terrible feel like Ayton become good feel one.

You can become more skilled, stronger and faster, but your horrid feel will barely improve.

Want to see someone with amazing feel for the game? Doncic is anti-Ayton. All the feels needed to succeed. Same for JJJ and Bagley.

I completely agree, I've been "preaching" this for years. Most busts happen because teams naively expect that a player with low basketball IQ is one day going to go EUREKA, "get it", and become a smart player.
realEAST wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:
realEAST wrote:
I think they'd have two good seasons befor Gasol expires and Conley enters last year being 32/33, and with Doncic being only 21/22 at that point, and imo not yet developed enough to single handedly lead the team to PO, next two season could be ones to add talent through draft. And if he really is good enough to make a bad team fringe playoff at the age of 22, then there could be at least some second tier star interested in going there.

The problem is that both Gasol and Conley aren't just going to fall off the cliff. If they draft Doncic and he ends up being good, they're going to resign and then they're SLOWLY going to get worse, while Doncic is slowly going to improve during that same time, leading to a typical treadmill team, or pretender at best (and hope to win the jackpot with mid-1st round picks).


I think that will be the decision for their FO to make on the move, since it is hard and there really isn't much point into predicting and deciding those things at this moment. If Doncic develops quickly, and those two decline at slower rate, you re sign them and have good team with room to add fine complimentary pieces. If it is the opposite case and Doncic takes a bit longer to reach his peak level, while Conley and Gasol have sharper decline, you don't resign them, and tank a year or two while giving reigns to Doncic, hoping you land another star caliber prospect.

If Doncic develops quickly (= gets to a very high level), then we're talking about what described, a most likely treadmill team for years to come, at most a pretender.

But if he starts slowly, I would get seriously worried about him ever becoming a star. His game is too advanced, too far along, he's too well-rounded and good at too many things ... If he's not in serious ROY contention in his 1st season and looking at least like a borderline-All-Star by his 2nd season, I am seriously going to start worrying that there's some untranslatable underlying issue that he's never going to be able to overcome.
Image
User avatar
SportsGuy8
Starter
Posts: 2,160
And1: 1,050
Joined: Jun 17, 2006

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#28 » by SportsGuy8 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:30 pm

Saciid11 wrote:
paulbball wrote:Anyone drafting Ayton over him will be making a humongous mistake. Ayton is not a top 3 prospect this draft.

Doncic is the clear number 1.


Ayton is the clear #1 in this draft followed by Bagley and Bamba . Anyone GM who passes up the only big man who can challenge Embiid for the title of best center in the league couple years should be fired...

They have clear question-marks when it comes to bball-IQ and actually knowing how to play the game.

Anthony Davis, for example, had inferior stats, but he looked much better. You could tell that his understanding of the game was already at least decent, he also had great awareness, especially defensively.

Doncic isn't as physically gifted as these guys, obviously, but he's simply good at ... you know ... BASKETBALL! He's a savant and the NBA is soon going to realize that also.
Image
User avatar
UcanUwill
RealGM
Posts: 33,184
And1: 36,743
Joined: Aug 07, 2011
 

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#29 » by UcanUwill » Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:26 pm

All top prospects this year have serious red flags.

Sent from my SM-A510F using RealGM mobile app
Alatan
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,826
And1: 4,110
Joined: May 06, 2017

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#30 » by Alatan » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:04 pm

SportsGuy8 wrote:
Saciid11 wrote:
paulbball wrote:Anyone drafting Ayton over him will be making a humongous mistake. Ayton is not a top 3 prospect this draft.

Doncic is the clear number 1.


Ayton is the clear #1 in this draft followed by Bagley and Bamba . Anyone GM who passes up the only big man who can challenge Embiid for the title of best center in the league couple years should be fired...

They have clear question-marks when it comes to bball-IQ and actually knowing how to play the game.

Anthony Davis, for example, had inferior stats, but he looked much better. You could tell that his understanding of the game was already at least decent, he also had great awareness, especially defensively.

Doncic isn't as physically gifted as these guys, obviously, but he's simply good at ... you know ... BASKETBALL! He's a savant and the NBA is soon going to realize that also.


I agree that Doncic has a good feel for the game but he is super athletically limited. It takes both skill and athletic ability to become a star.
XTraderXL
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,691
And1: 1,342
Joined: Dec 07, 2015

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#31 » by XTraderXL » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:06 pm

I wonder where peja_the_legend is today? Real is playing much better without Doncic, yeah right;-) Now we can see what this team really is without him. This is their reality, hopefully they can win at least one game in EL until he comes back. I would say they have a better chance this week against Armani, it will be much harder in Valencia.
User avatar
SportsGuy8
Starter
Posts: 2,160
And1: 1,050
Joined: Jun 17, 2006

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#32 » by SportsGuy8 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:13 pm

This is not good. If they lose in the Euroleague also, they are going to be too desperate to get him back.
Alatan wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:
Saciid11 wrote:
Ayton is the clear #1 in this draft followed by Bagley and Bamba . Anyone GM who passes up the only big man who can challenge Embiid for the title of best center in the league couple years should be fired...

They have clear question-marks when it comes to bball-IQ and actually knowing how to play the game.

Anthony Davis, for example, had inferior stats, but he looked much better. You could tell that his understanding of the game was already at least decent, he also had great awareness, especially defensively.

Doncic isn't as physically gifted as these guys, obviously, but he's simply good at ... you know ... BASKETBALL! He's a savant and the NBA is soon going to realize that also.


I agree that Doncic has a good feel for the game but he is super athletically limited. It takes both skill and athletic ability to become a star.

He's definitely not "super athletically limited", far from it. Teodosic is "super athletically limited".




His athleticism is at least average. In the last clip he was 16. With NBA's athletically oriented training he should get that back and then some.

Besides, I consider strength as part of athleticism. He already has decent strength and he's surely going to become even stronger. It's questionable if other aspects of athleticism are going to improve much, but strength improving should be a given. Men simply keep getting stronger in their 20s.
Image
Alatan
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,826
And1: 4,110
Joined: May 06, 2017

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#33 » by Alatan » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:36 pm

SportsGuy8 wrote:This is not good. If they lose in the Euroleague also, they are going to be too desperate to get him back.
Alatan wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:They have clear question-marks when it comes to bball-IQ and actually knowing how to play the game.

Anthony Davis, for example, had inferior stats, but he looked much better. You could tell that his understanding of the game was already at least decent, he also had great awareness, especially defensively.

Doncic isn't as physically gifted as these guys, obviously, but he's simply good at ... you know ... BASKETBALL! He's a savant and the NBA is soon going to realize that also.


I agree that Doncic has a good feel for the game but he is super athletically limited. It takes both skill and athletic ability to become a star.

He's definitely not "super athletically limited", far from it. Teodosic is "super athletically limited".




His athleticism is at least average. In the last clip he was 16. With NBA's athletically oriented training he should get that back and then some.

Besides, I consider strength as part of athleticism. He already has decent strength and he's surely going to become even stronger. It's questionable if other aspects of athleticism are going to improve much, but strength improving should be a given. Men simply keep getting stronger in their 20s.


Why are you comparing him to Teodosic? Teodosic is currently a bench pg in the NBA while being a much better playmaker than Doncic. Doncic is not average compared to NBA starting perimeter players. He is not explosive at all, he is slow with the ball and has a hunched dribble that throws him off balance when changing directions. His vertical jump is bad and his hang time is short. In essence he is a slow below the rim player in the NBA. Getting stronger wont fix that.
realEAST
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,855
And1: 1,347
Joined: Mar 25, 2016
   

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#34 » by realEAST » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:45 pm

SportsGuy8 wrote:
paulbball wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:I wouldn't say that Ayton's poor awareness is necessarily a result of a poor basketball IQ. Some people just lack awareness, the ability to concentrate on the task etc. Even many of the smartest people on the planet are like that.

Either way, his lack of awareness is indeed worrisome. He seems a good example of a player that could seriously struggle vs. more experienced players who are able to read his robotic predetermined moves (that are a result of his lack of awareness).


Basketball IQ is just the catch all terms for all the non (yet) measurable aspects of basketball.

Through all my years of basketball, I have never seen a dumb player become a smart one, never seen a player with terrible feel like Ayton become good feel one.

You can become more skilled, stronger and faster, but your horrid feel will barely improve.

Want to see someone with amazing feel for the game? Doncic is anti-Ayton. All the feels needed to succeed. Same for JJJ and Bagley.

I completely agree, I've been "preaching" this for years. Most busts happen because teams naively expect that a player with low basketball IQ is one day going to go EUREKA, "get it", and become a smart player.
realEAST wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:The problem is that both Gasol and Conley aren't just going to fall off the cliff. If they draft Doncic and he ends up being good, they're going to resign and then they're SLOWLY going to get worse, while Doncic is slowly going to improve during that same time, leading to a typical treadmill team, or pretender at best (and hope to win the jackpot with mid-1st round picks).


I think that will be the decision for their FO to make on the move, since it is hard and there really isn't much point into predicting and deciding those things at this moment. If Doncic develops quickly, and those two decline at slower rate, you re sign them and have good team with room to add fine complimentary pieces. If it is the opposite case and Doncic takes a bit longer to reach his peak level, while Conley and Gasol have sharper decline, you don't resign them, and tank a year or two while giving reigns to Doncic, hoping you land another star caliber prospect.

If Doncic develops quickly (= gets to a very high level), then we're talking about what described, a most likely treadmill team for years to come, at most a pretender.

But if he starts slowly, I would get seriously worried about him ever becoming a star. His game is too advanced, too far along, he's too well-rounded and good at too many things ... If he's not in serious ROY contention in his 1st season and looking at least like a borderline-All-Star by his 2nd season, I am seriously going to start worrying that there's some untranslatable underlying issue that he's never going to be able to overcome.


Don't think him not being board line All Star in 2nd season would be that worrying, the way I see/expect it, even if he has productive summer, he'll still need time to adjust to league, and it may took better part of season to adjust and start figuring it out, speaking on a level of actually contributing to winning through creation (which imo is highest level/type of ability). I think his second season is going to be mostly adjusting too, but in a sense of further developing skills to be more productive and have greater impact. In his third season I can see him really approaching his peak performances, but it may even take better parr of season to start playing on that level consistently. That third season could be the one they get a good pick, Doncic being surrounded with younger players and low level vets let's say. He'll be only 23 at season end.
Nikson
Junior
Posts: 402
And1: 79
Joined: Oct 21, 2017

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#35 » by Nikson » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:49 pm

So, you say he will get better every season?
Nikson
Junior
Posts: 402
And1: 79
Joined: Oct 21, 2017

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#36 » by Nikson » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:53 pm

Alatan wrote:
SportsGuy8 wrote:This is not good. If they lose in the Euroleague also, they are going to be too desperate to get him back.
Alatan wrote:
I agree that Doncic has a good feel for the game but he is super athletically limited. It takes both skill and athletic ability to become a star.

He's definitely not "super athletically limited", far from it. Teodosic is "super athletically limited".




His athleticism is at least average. In the last clip he was 16. With NBA's athletically oriented training he should get that back and then some.

Besides, I consider strength as part of athleticism. He already has decent strength and he's surely going to become even stronger. It's questionable if other aspects of athleticism are going to improve much, but strength improving should be a given. Men simply keep getting stronger in their 20s.


Why are you comparing him to Teodosic? Teodosic is currently a bench pg in the NBA while being a much better playmaker than Doncic. Doncic is not average compared to NBA starting perimeter players. He is not explosive at all, he is slow with the ball and has a hunched dribble that throws him off balance when changing directions. His vertical jump is bad and his hang time is short. In essence he is a slow below the rim player in the NBA. Getting stronger wont fix that.


I don’t see where he is compared to Teodosić. I just see Teo as "super athletically limited" is not really comparable to Dončić, see?
Nikson
Junior
Posts: 402
And1: 79
Joined: Oct 21, 2017

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#37 » by Nikson » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:54 pm

My god how good will he become as he will not be super linited anymore. Scary!!
JMac1
Suns Forum Training Specialist
Posts: 10,032
And1: 4,004
Joined: May 23, 2009

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#38 » by JMac1 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:08 pm

Looks like a 6’8 James Harden...crafty as heck.
VCfor3
Forum Mod - Grizzlies
Forum Mod - Grizzlies
Posts: 7,096
And1: 4,123
Joined: May 11, 2017
 

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#39 » by VCfor3 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:40 am

As far as the whole Memphis situation goes, I think that it could potentially work out beautifully for him but it is more likely to be disappointing. In a perfect world, Memphis drafts him and competes next year. They end up as a bubble team and maybe make the playoffs. Doncic will get to learn from Mike and Marc in a winning environment as he transitions to the NBA. After that, Memphis will have a decision to make in regards to Marc and Mike. (Random side not: No idea who will be in charge at this point due to the whole Pera/minor owners buyout thing going on)

If Memphis decides to move on from Marc and Mike and go for a rebuild, Marc (and Parsons) would be expiring contracts. I'm sure there will be teams more than happy to add an expiring Marc, get his bird rights, and move a bad contract. Memphis would have all their own picks at this point so tanking for a year or two and getting 1-2 high picks plus whatever you get in return for the moveable vets should help build a core around Doncic. (Brooks is looking pretty decent and some of the other young guys on Memphis could be solid bench players). Mike may not be moveable but he would be a good vet to have around worst case scenario and probably could be moved the next year when he is an expiring.

The problem is that I don't know if Memphis wants to ever enter a full rebuild and the current FO seems content on being a treadmill team as long as they are making the playoffs.
zaymon
Head Coach
Posts: 6,128
And1: 3,436
Joined: Jul 01, 2015
   

Re: Luka Doncic Part III 

Post#40 » by zaymon » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:21 am

paulbball wrote:
1UPZ wrote:
paulbball wrote:Anyone drafting Ayton over him will be making a humongous mistake. Ayton is not a top 3 prospect this draft.

Doncic is the clear number 1.



Doncic is a beast

but to\say Ayton is not top 3 is nuts..

He's top 3 in almost everyones rankings...


The classic hive mind mentality. I'm telling you Ayton is not good.

He has extremely poor awareness as a result of poor basketball IQ. His chances of becoming a bluechip prospect is very poor in my opinion. In addition, he has a multitude of other flaws.



And i thought i am alone on this. He doesnt have the most important talent in basketball it will be an uphill battle for him.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !

Return to NBA Draft