'17-'18 POY discussion

[Dr Spaceman]

One thing not I want to note: according to Dunc’d on (haven’t run the numbers myself) Philly with their two stars playing without the other are hovering around neutral point differential right now.

However, the two stars together are at a +14 Net rating. This is an absolutely HUGE development, not only for this year, but for the future as well.

Fundamentally, good basketball players tend to be good at similar things, and so when you put two of them together they don’t actually perform that much better than when either are on their own.

The difference between good, competitive teams and elite title contenders in recent years has been precisely this dynamic. Teams who have great synergy between their stars (GSW and HOU this year, e.g.) have lineups that just outperform anything another team can put out, and this is how you win playoff series. Teams that don’t have this dynamic (TOR and LAC in years past) will generally be also-rans. There are some exceptions (MIA) but for the most part this axiom holds true.

So it’s really important that Philly is already this good with their two main guys, and frankly to me it’s the clearest signal that this team has legitimate dynasty potential. You don’t have to manage lineups or stagger minutes, etc. They’ve already found their death lineup, and it requires no sacrifices to get there.

[Missing Rings]

One thing not I want to note: according to Dunc’d on (haven’t run the numbers myself) Philly with their two stars playing without the other are hovering around neutral point differential right now.

However, the two stars together are at a +14 Net rating. This is an absolutely HUGE development, not only for this year, but for the future as well.

Fundamentally, good basketball players tend to be good at similar things, and so when you put two of them together they don’t actually perform that much better than when either are on their own.

The difference between good, competitive teams and elite title contenders in recent years has been precisely this dynamic. Teams who have great synergy between their stars (GSW and HOU this year, e.g.) have lineups that just outperform anything another team can put out, and this is how you win playoff series. Teams that don’t have this dynamic (TOR and LAC in years past) will generally be also-rans. There are some exceptions (MIA) but for the most part this axiom holds true.

So it’s really important that Philly is already this good with their two main guys, and frankly to me it’s the clearest signal that this team has legitimate dynasty potential. You don’t have to manage lineups or stagger minutes, etc. They’ve already found their death lineup, and it requires no sacrifices to get there.

The biggest reason for this is defense. Even as their games start to develop and overlap in skill-sets could occur, the fact that both of these guys are going to be great defenders (with Embiid ending up in the GOAT-level assuming he stays healthy) is going to allow them to always play fantastic together.

They have the 9th highest defensive rating for 2-man line-up in the NBA.

[kabstah]

One thing not I want to note: according to Dunc’d on (haven’t run the numbers myself) Philly with their two stars playing without the other are hovering around neutral point differential right now.

However, the two stars together are at a +14 Net rating. This is an absolutely HUGE development, not only for this year, but for the future as well.

Fundamentally, good basketball players tend to be good at similar things, and so when you put two of them together they don’t actually perform that much better than when either are on their own.

The difference between good, competitive teams and elite title contenders in recent years has been precisely this dynamic. Teams who have great synergy between their stars (GSW and HOU this year, e.g.) have lineups that just outperform anything another team can put out, and this is how you win playoff series. Teams that don’t have this dynamic (TOR and LAC in years past) will generally be also-rans. There are some exceptions (MIA) but for the most part this axiom holds true.

So it’s really important that Philly is already this good with their two main guys, and frankly to me it’s the clearest signal that this team has legitimate dynasty potential. You don’t have to manage lineups or stagger minutes, etc. They’ve already found their death lineup, and it requires no sacrifices to get there.

Sixers are actually a three-headed monster with RoCo/Embiid/Simmons. Going by nbawowy! numbers, Embiid is clearly the most important of the trio right now, and he actually manages to keep the team roughly neutral (-0.5 per 100) even when both RoCo and Simmons are on the bench. In contrast, RoCo + Simmons without Embiid are -2.5 per 100.

If you can only have two of them, Embiid + Simmons is +3 (elite offense with terrible defense) while Embiid + RoCo is +6 (good offense with elite defense). Put all three of them together to Complete the Process, however, and suddenly they're +17 while being stunningly good on both ends of the floor.

As long as they remain healthy, I think they're quite easily the best team in the East next season after getting a taste of the playoffs this year. If they were to swap Fultz + picks + whatever garbage for LeBron James in a sign and trade, they'd be the best team in the league even with LeBron / Simmons not being an optimal fit.

[MisterHibachi]

One thing not I want to note: according to Dunc’d on (haven’t run the numbers myself) Philly with their two stars playing without the other are hovering around neutral point differential right now.

However, the two stars together are at a +14 Net rating. This is an absolutely HUGE development, not only for this year, but for the future as well.

Fundamentally, good basketball players tend to be good at similar things, and so when you put two of them together they don’t actually perform that much better than when either are on their own.

The difference between good, competitive teams and elite title contenders in recent years has been precisely this dynamic. Teams who have great synergy between their stars (GSW and HOU this year, e.g.) have lineups that just outperform anything another team can put out, and this is how you win playoff series. Teams that don’t have this dynamic (TOR and LAC in years past) will generally be also-rans. There are some exceptions (MIA) but for the most part this axiom holds true.

So it’s really important that Philly is already this good with their two main guys, and frankly to me it’s the clearest signal that this team has legitimate dynasty potential. You don’t have to manage lineups or stagger minutes, etc. They’ve already found their death lineup, and it requires no sacrifices to get there.

Sixers are actually a three-headed monster with RoCo/Embiid/Simmons. Going by nbawowy! numbers, Embiid is clearly the most important of the trio right now, and he actually manages to keep the team roughly neutral (-0.5 per 100) even when both RoCo and Simmons are on the bench. In contrast, RoCo + Simmons without Embiid are -2.5 per 100.

If you can only have two of them, Embiid + Simmons is +3 (elite offense with terrible defense) while Embiid + RoCo is +6 (good offense with elite defense). Put all three of them together to Complete the Process, however, and suddenly they're +17 while being stunningly good on both ends of the floor.

As long as they remain healthy, I think they're quite easily the best team in the East next season after getting a taste of the playoffs this year. If they were to swap Fultz + picks + whatever garbage for LeBron James in a sign and trade, they'd be the best team in the league even with LeBron / Simmons not being an optimal fit.

Not a cap expert but I think the Sixers can make room for LeBron's contract without giving up any of their top player assets. Just need to get rid of Bayless, whose on a bad contract. Doesn't need to be a sign and trade.

[E-Balla]

I haven't given a top 5 on here for a while but with all these injuries I think its time headed into the final stretch. It'll also be a good way for me to spit out how I'm feeling about guys.

1. Giannis - Kind of a default pick with his lack of injuries compared to the others. I mean I get Curry and Embiid are better than him but I'm taking 12 more games of Giannis at this point of the season over what Curry gives me in 50 games.

2. Victor Oladipo - Another guy I would never say was top 5 level before. Fun fact my brother told me about the other day (he's always been a big Dipo fan since Indiana) but Indy plays at a 52 win pace when he plays and haven't won any of the 6 games he missed.

3. Westbrook - Honestly here by default thanks to the injuries. If he can't buck up and take OKC to the playoffs he's out the top 5 but by virtue of playing 16 and 12 more games than the 2 guys under him he's made it. Since Roberson's gone down he's had issues having those major runs they went on with him thanks to the serious handicap that is Billy Donovan.

4. Embiid - this will be an upset because of the implication of Embiid over Curry. Yes I'm sayign per minute no player has been better than Embiid. If Embiid was 100% healthy and played all games not only would he be my #1 but he would be #1 by far. Offensively he is strong but not a major positive but defensively he's the best player since peak Dwight Howard on that end (or old man KG depending on who you thought was better). Quite frankly I'll take that over Curry's amazing scoring and subpar defense.

5. Stephen Curry - What can I say? Amazing shooting, 60% on midrange shots (yes 60. Six zero), and basically impeccable from anywhere. If he didn't miss 17 games already I'd have him top 2 without a doubt.

HM. Jimmy Butler - I had to post about Jimmy because all I have to add on him is that Minny seems like they might fall short without him. They can blowout bad teams but against guys in their class they've fallen short.

All in all this might be the strangest year I can think of mainly because of all the injuries there has been. Of the 10 potential guys I have near my top 5 five of them have missed over 10 games already and Westbrook is the only one that hasn't missed at least 5 games. With all those injuries its no surprise my top 5 list is completely up for grabs even at this points hell Lebron can even make it in and he's not in my top 10.

[clyde21]

One thing not I want to note: according to Dunc’d on (haven’t run the numbers myself) Philly with their two stars playing without the other are hovering around neutral point differential right now.

However, the two stars together are at a +14 Net rating. This is an absolutely HUGE development, not only for this year, but for the future as well.

Fundamentally, good basketball players tend to be good at similar things, and so when you put two of them together they don’t actually perform that much better than when either are on their own.

The difference between good, competitive teams and elite title contenders in recent years has been precisely this dynamic. Teams who have great synergy between their stars (GSW and HOU this year, e.g.) have lineups that just outperform anything another team can put out, and this is how you win playoff series. Teams that don’t have this dynamic (TOR and LAC in years past) will generally be also-rans. There are some exceptions (MIA) but for the most part this axiom holds true.

So it’s really important that Philly is already this good with their two main guys, and frankly to me it’s the clearest signal that this team has legitimate dynasty potential. You don’t have to manage lineups or stagger minutes, etc. They’ve already found their death lineup, and it requires no sacrifices to get there.

Sixers are actually a three-headed monster with RoCo/Embiid/Simmons. Going by nbawowy! numbers, Embiid is clearly the most important of the trio right now, and he actually manages to keep the team roughly neutral (-0.5 per 100) even when both RoCo and Simmons are on the bench. In contrast, RoCo + Simmons without Embiid are -2.5 per 100.

If you can only have two of them, Embiid + Simmons is +3 (elite offense with terrible defense) while Embiid + RoCo is +6 (good offense with elite defense). Put all three of them together to Complete the Process, however, and suddenly they're +17 while being stunningly good on both ends of the floor.

As long as they remain healthy, I think they're quite easily the best team in the East next season after getting a taste of the playoffs this year. If they were to swap Fultz + picks + whatever garbage for LeBron James in a sign and trade, they'd be the best team in the league even with LeBron / Simmons not being an optimal fit.

Not a cap expert but I think the Sixers can make room for LeBron's contract without giving up any of their top player assets. Just need to get rid of Bayless, whose on a bad contract. Doesn't need to be a sign and trade.

After renouncing Redick and Johnson they'll have $22.5mil in cap space. They'll need to free up another ~13mil. They can unload Jerry Bayless but that's only ~8mil. They'd need to include Markelle Fultz or Robert Covington, which easily doable. A S&T would work a lot cleaner. Cavs get Fultz/Bayless, Philly gets LeBron. Clean transaction.

[MisterHibachi]

Sixers are actually a three-headed monster with RoCo/Embiid/Simmons. Going by nbawowy! numbers, Embiid is clearly the most important of the trio right now, and he actually manages to keep the team roughly neutral (-0.5 per 100) even when both RoCo and Simmons are on the bench. In contrast, RoCo + Simmons without Embiid are -2.5 per 100.

If you can only have two of them, Embiid + Simmons is +3 (elite offense with terrible defense) while Embiid + RoCo is +6 (good offense with elite defense). Put all three of them together to Complete the Process, however, and suddenly they're +17 while being stunningly good on both ends of the floor.

As long as they remain healthy, I think they're quite easily the best team in the East next season after getting a taste of the playoffs this year. If they were to swap Fultz + picks + whatever garbage for LeBron James in a sign and trade, they'd be the best team in the league even with LeBron / Simmons not being an optimal fit.

Not a cap expert but I think the Sixers can make room for LeBron's contract without giving up any of their top player assets. Just need to get rid of Bayless, whose on a bad contract. Doesn't need to be a sign and trade.

After renouncing Redick and Johnson they'll have $22.5mil in cap space. They'll need to free up another ~13mil. They can unload Jerry Bayless but that's only ~8mil. They'd need to include Markelle Fultz or Robert Covington, which easily doable. A S&T would work a lot cleaner. Cavs get Fultz/Bayless, Philly gets LeBron. Clean transaction.

No need for a sign and trade

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/82hdan/oc_the_sixers_the_salary_cap_and_max_free_agents/

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/80g62s/oc_is_lebron_to_philly_a_possibility/

[clyde21]

Not a cap expert but I think the Sixers can make room for LeBron's contract without giving up any of their top player assets. Just need to get rid of Bayless, whose on a bad contract. Doesn't need to be a sign and trade.

After renouncing Redick and Johnson they'll have $22.5mil in cap space. They'll need to free up another ~13mil. They can unload Jerry Bayless but that's only ~8mil. They'd need to include Markelle Fultz or Robert Covington, which easily doable. A S&T would work a lot cleaner. Cavs get Fultz/Bayless, Philly gets LeBron. Clean transaction.

No need for a sign and trade

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/82hdan/oc_the_sixers_the_salary_cap_and_max_free_agents/

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/80g62s/oc_is_lebron_to_philly_a_possibility/

I'm not saying you need a S&T. I'm saying it's cleaner and easier.

[MisterHibachi]

After renouncing Redick and Johnson they'll have $22.5mil in cap space. They'll need to free up another ~13mil. They can unload Jerry Bayless but that's only ~8mil. They'd need to include Markelle Fultz or Robert Covington, which easily doable. A S&T would work a lot cleaner. Cavs get Fultz/Bayless, Philly gets LeBron. Clean transaction.

No need for a sign and trade

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/82hdan/oc_the_sixers_the_salary_cap_and_max_free_agents/

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/80g62s/oc_is_lebron_to_philly_a_possibility/

I'm not saying you need a S&T. I'm saying it's cleaner and easier.

Why's it easier to get rid of a number 1 pick or one of the best 3&D guys in the league when you don't have to. That's idiotic, no GM would consider that.

[clyde21]

No need for a sign and trade

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/82hdan/oc_the_sixers_the_salary_cap_and_max_free_agents/

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/80g62s/oc_is_lebron_to_philly_a_possibility/

I'm not saying you need a S&T. I'm saying it's cleaner and easier.

Why's it easier to get rid of a number 1 pick or one of the best 3&D guys in the league when you don't have to. That's idiotic, no GM would consider that.

It's Fultz+Bayless.

And you're going to have to get rid of someone regardless even if it's a straight up singing in FA. You have 22mil after you've renounced everybody. How do you plan on clearing the rest of the 13mil without getting rid of Fultz/Covington?

The scenario you had in the reddit post was still 8mil short of signing LeBron.

[MisterHibachi]

I'm not saying you need a S&T. I'm saying it's cleaner and easier.

Why's it easier to get rid of a number 1 pick or one of the best 3&D guys in the league when you don't have to. That's idiotic, no GM would consider that.

It's Fultz+Bayless.

And you're going to have to get rid of someone regardless even if it's a straight up singing in FA. You have 22mil after you've renounced everybody. How do you plan on clearing the rest of the 13mil without getting rid of Fultz/Covington?

The scenario you had in the reddit post was still 8mil short of signing LeBron.

Both links show max cap space.

Getting rid of guys like Ilyasova, Johnson, etc is a different thing than trading a core piece like Fultz or Covington.

[MO12msu]

I haven't given a top 5 on here for a while but with all these injuries I think its time headed into the final stretch. It'll also be a good way for me to spit out how I'm feeling about guys.

1. Giannis - Kind of a default pick with his lack of injuries compared to the others. I mean I get Curry and Embiid are better than him but I'm taking 12 more games of Giannis at this point of the season over what Curry gives me in 50 games.

2. Victor Oladipo - Another guy I would never say was top 5 level before. Fun fact my brother told me about the other day (he's always been a big Dipo fan since Indiana) but Indy plays at a 52 win pace when he plays and haven't won any of the 6 games he missed.

3. Westbrook - Honestly here by default thanks to the injuries. If he can't buck up and take OKC to the playoffs he's out the top 5 but by virtue of playing 16 and 12 more games than the 2 guys under him he's made it. Since Roberson's gone down he's had issues having those major runs they went on with him thanks to the serious handicap that is Billy Donovan.

4. Embiid - this will be an upset because of the implication of Embiid over Curry. Yes I'm sayign per minute no player has been better than Embiid. If Embiid was 100% healthy and played all games not only would he be my #1 but he would be #1 by far. Offensively he is strong but not a major positive but defensively he's the best player since peak Dwight Howard on that end (or old man KG depending on who you thought was better). Quite frankly I'll take that over Curry's amazing scoring and subpar defense.

5. Stephen Curry - What can I say? Amazing shooting, 60% on midrange shots (yes 60. Six zero), and basically impeccable from anywhere. If he didn't miss 17 games already I'd have him top 2 without a doubt.

HM. Jimmy Butler - I had to post about Jimmy because all I have to add on him is that Minny seems like they might fall short without him. They can blowout bad teams but against guys in their class they've fallen short.

All in all this might be the strangest year I can think of mainly because of all the injuries there has been. Of the 10 potential guys I have near my top 5 five of them have missed over 10 games already and Westbrook is the only one that hasn't missed at least 5 games. With all those injuries its no surprise my top 5 list is completely up for grabs even at this points hell Lebron can even make it in and he's not in my top 10.

Ok how is James Harden not even worthy of an honorable mention when it comes to player of the year?

[E-Balla]

I haven't given a top 5 on here for a while but with all these injuries I think its time headed into the final stretch. It'll also be a good way for me to spit out how I'm feeling about guys.

1. Giannis - Kind of a default pick with his lack of injuries compared to the others. I mean I get Curry and Embiid are better than him but I'm taking 12 more games of Giannis at this point of the season over what Curry gives me in 50 games.

2. Victor Oladipo - Another guy I would never say was top 5 level before. Fun fact my brother told me about the other day (he's always been a big Dipo fan since Indiana) but Indy plays at a 52 win pace when he plays and haven't won any of the 6 games he missed.

3. Westbrook - Honestly here by default thanks to the injuries. If he can't buck up and take OKC to the playoffs he's out the top 5 but by virtue of playing 16 and 12 more games than the 2 guys under him he's made it. Since Roberson's gone down he's had issues having those major runs they went on with him thanks to the serious handicap that is Billy Donovan.

4. Embiid - this will be an upset because of the implication of Embiid over Curry. Yes I'm sayign per minute no player has been better than Embiid. If Embiid was 100% healthy and played all games not only would he be my #1 but he would be #1 by far. Offensively he is strong but not a major positive but defensively he's the best player since peak Dwight Howard on that end (or old man KG depending on who you thought was better). Quite frankly I'll take that over Curry's amazing scoring and subpar defense.

5. Stephen Curry - What can I say? Amazing shooting, 60% on midrange shots (yes 60. Six zero), and basically impeccable from anywhere. If he didn't miss 17 games already I'd have him top 2 without a doubt.

HM. Jimmy Butler - I had to post about Jimmy because all I have to add on him is that Minny seems like they might fall short without him. They can blowout bad teams but against guys in their class they've fallen short.

All in all this might be the strangest year I can think of mainly because of all the injuries there has been. Of the 10 potential guys I have near my top 5 five of them have missed over 10 games already and Westbrook is the only one that hasn't missed at least 5 games. With all those injuries its no surprise my top 5 list is completely up for grabs even at this points hell Lebron can even make it in and he's not in my top 10.

Ok how is James Harden not even worthy of an honorable mention when it comes to player of the year?

I only did one HM. Harden would be my 2nd HM in that 7 spot with Anthony Davis in the 8 spot.

[clyde21]

Why's it easier to get rid of a number 1 pick or one of the best 3&D guys in the league when you don't have to. That's idiotic, no GM would consider that.

It's Fultz+Bayless.

And you're going to have to get rid of someone regardless even if it's a straight up singing in FA. You have 22mil after you've renounced everybody. How do you plan on clearing the rest of the 13mil without getting rid of Fultz/Covington?

The scenario you had in the reddit post was still 8mil short of signing LeBron.

Both links show max cap space.

Getting rid of guys like Ilyasova, Johnson, etc is a different thing than trading a core piece like Fultz or Covington.

Johnson and Ilyasova is already included in the projection I gave you.

You're renouncing Johnson/Redick/Ilyasova/Belinelli and you're STILL at $22mil. If you somehow find a way to shed Bayless (without taking back ANY money) you're now at $30mil. About $5-6mil short. Means that you'd have to get rid of Saric+Anderson to free that space up.

And again...you'd have to make all of these moves without getting any $$$ back. Certainly doable. I'm not saying it is. But doing a Bayless+Fultz or heck a Bayless+Lakers 1st would get the job done in a S&T a lot cleaner and easier.

Also...doing a S&T gives the Cavs more room to make moves after bringing on LeBron vs. signing up to the full max off the market.

[MO12msu]

I only did one HM. Harden would be my 2nd HM in that 7 spot with Anthony Davis in the 8 spot.

I guess my point is I think it's a little unconventional to not have harden among the top 3 at this point and you don't even mention him in your post at all. What's the thought process behind having Oladipo and Westbrook ahead of him?

[E-Balla]

I only did one HM. Harden would be my 2nd HM in that 7 spot with Anthony Davis in the 8 spot.

I guess my point is I think it's a little unconventional to not have harden among the top 3 at this point and you don't even mention him in your post at all. What's the thought process behind having Oladipo and Westbrook ahead of him?

Westbrook has played at about an equal level with Harden imo but he's played more games. Like I said its close. Oladipo has been a monster too. Definitely in that top class so far this year. Indy is a top 3 seed when they were expected to fall off and no one seems to be mentioning how that's all because of Dipo.

[CBA]

Just for the sake of entertainment, by what measures do you believe Westbrook has been a top 3 player and at about an equal level as the runaway MVP?

[bondom34]

I think Harden's a bit overrated but he's still ahead of Russ this year only.

[DoItALL9]

Folks, please reflect on the phenomenal play of Damian Lillard.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

[K_chile22]

I think Harden's a bit overrated but he's still ahead of Russ this year only.

But what about *squints hard* Victor Oladipo