'17-'18 POY discussion

[Krodis]

People are still way too caught up in unadjusted on/off numbers, or even relatively small sample size RAPM numbers. For example, if Harden and Paul never staggered their minutes their on/off would be much better(not that it isn't good already), and the Rockets would be much worse. (To put it into context: of the 2100 minutes Harden has played this year, less than 600 of them have been with both Paul and Capela) Or someone like Embiid. Embiid is great. But I'd be hesitant to give Embiid too much extra credit just because the Sixers bench can't put the ball in the basket. (Also: Embiid has played almost 70% of his minutes with BOTH Simmons and Covington)

Other asides:

Curry has played around 75% of his minutes with Durant, and nearly half his minutes with Durant, Green, AND Thompson

Jimmy Butler has played 85% of his minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns

While Anthony Davis has played only about half of his minutes with DeMarcus Cousins.



I like RAPM as a stat, I really really do, but I've just seen such a worrying trend of disregarding the noise in on/off stats, as if it weren't a huge deal. Rotations and teammates have a HUGE impact on +/- and on/off data, which is why RAPM has so many problems and why raw on/off should be taken with a metric ton of salt.

[bondom34]

People are still way too caught up in unadjusted on/off numbers, or even relatively small sample size RAPM numbers. For example, if Harden and Paul never staggered their minutes their on/off would be much better(not that it isn't good already), and the Rockets would be much worse. (To put it into context: of the 2100 minutes Harden has played this year, less than 600 of them have been with both Paul and Capela) Or someone like Embiid. Embiid is great. But I'd be hesitant to give Embiid too much extra credit just because the Sixers bench can't put the ball in the basket. (Also: Embiid has played almost 70% of his minutes with BOTH Simmons and Covington)

Other asides:

Curry has played around 75% of his minutes with Durant, and nearly half his minutes with Durant, Green, AND Thompson

Jimmy Butler has played 85% of his minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns

While Anthony Davis has played only about half of his minutes with DeMarcus Cousins.



I like RAPM as a stat, I really really do, but I've just seen such a worrying trend of disregarding the noise in on/off stats, as if it weren't a huge deal. Rotations and teammates have a HUGE impact on +/- and on/off data, which is why RAPM has so many problems and why raw on/off should be taken with a metric ton of salt.

I think most here use WOWY quite a bit, which negates this. Nobody straight ranks guys on APM I know of. And Harden and Paul are literally 1/2 in APM, so if you're arguing for them I'd think you'd want to use it.

The actually impressive numbers are Butler without Towns, Curry without Durant, and I haven't seen Davis without Cousins honestly.

[Krodis]

Butler without Towns is barely 300 minutes though. Through 300 minutes the Orlando Magic looked like a good basketball team.

[E-Balla]

You asked what metric shows they're on the same level. I cited 3 major ones. The difference between +14.9 and +15.6 is so minimal it makes no sense to use it as an argument for why one guy is better than the other. That's something you need to individually choose when players are so close.

I've said multiple times already in this thread the distance between Harden at #7 and Giannis at #1 is minimal at best.

How about this. Convince me Harden has done anything to separate himself from the pack? Y'all too busy crowning guys around here instead of letting what you see dictate your opinion.

How do you know what I see hasn't dictated my opinion? Pretty weak to act like I've come to my conclusions without watching games and doing my own research.

Here's my Harden clearly top of the league argument: He leads the league in all those major boxscore measures that I understand you don't care about in addition to being in the top tier in the league in the on-off metrics as well. The offense that he is the main conductor of is putting up literally GOAT level numbers and it is entirely predicated on him destroying people in iso situations with amazing spacing.

The team that he is leading is proving to be a viable threat to maybe the greatest collection of talent in NBA history.

Harden versus Oladipo: In addition to everything above, Harden is way more efficient. Both are putting up impressive on-off metrics, but I'd argue it's harder to post those kind of on-off numbers when Chris Paul is you're back up point guard and the team is performing at +8-9 SRS level. That's not to say Oladipo is impressive, but it shows that what Harden is doing is more impressive because it's on a greater scale for a team with higher goals which should probably count for something in itself.

I'd argue that Harden is a significantly better playmaker and shooter than Oladipo and the basic numbers bare that out. In addition to the constant pressure that Harden's ability to draw fouls puts on the defense. Offensively I don't think it's all that close really. And I don't think Oladipo makes a big enough defensive impact to close the gap in any way that is substantial.

Still waiting of the Westbrook over Harden argument.

None of that sounded like an argument for Harden over the pack when almost everything you said applies to Chris Paul. That sounded like an argument for why Harden is in contention which is why like I said he's close as hell to Giannis to me.

I want to hear what makes him so much better than everyone else that its a travesty to not have him at 1?

And I care about how the team plays with the player on the floor not off. Oladipo has Indy playing at a +7.5 level with him on the floor and their 104.4 DRTG with Dipo would rate 2nd in the league if they played like that without him and he's their best defender by far (he's in the 91.3rd percentile of iso defenders and the 87.7th percentile of PNR defenders). Westbrook prior to Roberson's injury had OKC playing at a +7.4 level with him on the floor (now its down to +5.4) and OKC was playing great on both ends of the floor. Neither of them have Chris Paul, who is another legitimate top 5 level player. That's a legitimate knock against Harden in comparison to the others. Houston is 11-7 (+4.9) when CP3 is out and Harden has played every game CP3 missed. 18 games isn't a small sample either and his supporting cast is still very good without CP3.

Now he still averaged 33.8/5.3/10.3 on 62.9 TS% without CP3 so it's not like I'm saying he relies on CP3 for his own production. I'm saying that his team is so great because there's another player that's just as good as he is on the team.

[bondom34]

Butler without Towns is barely 300 minutes though. Through 300 minutes the Orlando Magic looked like a good basketball team.

That's actually pretty significant minutes for a lineup. Not many lineups play 300 minutes in a season.

[bondom34]

FTR:

Harden/Paul: +12.9
Harden on/Paul off: +9.0
Paul on/Harden off: +13.2

Curry/Durant: +13.9
Curry on/Durant off: +15.8
Durant on/Curry off: +1.0 (Wow)

Butler/Towns: +9.9
Butler on/Towns off: -.6
Towns on/Butler off: -1.8

So this is actually against your point since he still looks great in APM.

[Krodis]

So Westbrook > Harden because the Thunder with Roberson were better than the Rockets without Paul? And Oladipo >Harden because the Pacers with Oladipo on the floor > the Rockets without Paul? (Not even Harden on the floor without Paul, just the Rockets without Paul in general)

... what? That is some creative statistic fudging If I've ever seen it.

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[Krodis]

Butler without Towns is barely 300 minutes though. Through 300 minutes the Orlando Magic looked like a good basketball team.

That's actually pretty significant minutes for a lineup. Not many lineups play 300 minutes in a season.

The fact that not a lot of lineups play 300 minutes doesn't make it a substantial sample size.

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[bondom34]

Butler without Towns is barely 300 minutes though. Through 300 minutes the Orlando Magic looked like a good basketball team.

That's actually pretty significant minutes for a lineup. Not many lineups play 300 minutes in a season.

The fact that not a lot of lineups play 300 minutes doesn't make it a substantial sample size.

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So what's your cutoff?

400?
500?
1000?
A full season's worth?

It doesn't invalidate data at all, and you're doing it for everyone the same. To add, that data isn't actually helping Butler as shown above, if it was you'd expect Harden to be boosted more.

[Krodis]

FTR:

Harden/Paul: +12.9
Harden on/Paul off: +9.0
Paul on/Harden off: +13.2

Curry/Durant: +13.9
Curry on/Durant off: +15.8
Durant on/Curry off: +1.0 (Wow)

Butler/Towns: +9.9
Butler on/Towns off: -.6
Towns on/Butler off: -1.8

So this is actually against your point since he still looks great in APM.

To ve clear, my examples weren't necessarily intended to be pointed in terms of who I think is impactful, just demonstrative of different minutes grouping, I certainly wasn't trying to discredit Curry.

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[bondom34]

FTR:

Harden/Paul: +12.9
Harden on/Paul off: +9.0
Paul on/Harden off: +13.2

Curry/Durant: +13.9
Curry on/Durant off: +15.8
Durant on/Curry off: +1.0 (Wow)

Butler/Towns: +9.9
Butler on/Towns off: -.6
Towns on/Butler off: -1.8

So this is actually against your point since he still looks great in APM.

To ve clear, my examples weren't necessarily intended to be pointed in terms of who I think is impactful, just demonstrative of different minutes grouping, I certainly wasn't trying to discredit Curry.

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Didn't think you were, but the Butler point doesn't really work either. They're 4-3 with a 3.4 net rating because they shellacked the Bulls and Kings. They're a bad team without him. They're the 3 seed with him.

[Krodis]

I mean their losses are single digit losses to good teams and they also won @ Washington. I think it's probably too early to make any definitive judgements about the Butler-less Wolves.

I also am not really trying to discredit Butler, or Embiid, I'm just saying I'd be wary of assigning too much credit because of single season on/off data.

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[K_chile22]

FTR:

Harden/Paul: +12.9
Harden on/Paul off: +9.0
Paul on/Harden off: +13.2

Curry/Durant: +13.9
Curry on/Durant off: +15.8
Durant on/Curry off: +1.0 (Wow)

Butler/Towns: +9.9
Butler on/Towns off: -.6
Towns on/Butler off: -1.8

So this is actually against your point since he still looks great in APM.

And again, most of the Paul no Harden minutes are Paul vs bench units, where as the Townes no Butler stuff is vs starters when /Butler has missed because Thibs doesnt stagger


Edit: the Harden-Paul thing was +9 vs +11 before Harden didn't play vs the tanking mavs who got blown out, predictably lol

[bondom34]

I mean their losses are single digit losses to good teams and they also won @ Washington. I think it's probably too early to make any definitive judgements about the Butler-less Wolves.

I also am not really trying to discredit Butler, or Embiid, I'm just saying I'd be wary of assigning too much credit because of single season on/off data.

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They're a dreadful defensive team and Wiggins still looks bad. KAT is great, but they're not touching the playoffs without him.

FTR:

Harden/Paul: +12.9
Harden on/Paul off: +9.0
Paul on/Harden off: +13.2

Curry/Durant: +13.9
Curry on/Durant off: +15.8
Durant on/Curry off: +1.0 (Wow)

Butler/Towns: +9.9
Butler on/Towns off: -.6
Towns on/Butler off: -1.8

So this is actually against your point since he still looks great in APM.

And again, most of the Paul no Harden minutes are Paul vs bench units, where as the Townes no Butler stuff is vs starters when /Butler has missed because Thibs doesnt stagger

Possibly, but you'd have to watch every minute to track. It's a gauge.

[MO12msu]

How do you know what I see hasn't dictated my opinion? Pretty weak to act like I've come to my conclusions without watching games and doing my own research.

Here's my Harden clearly top of the league argument: He leads the league in all those major boxscore measures that I understand you don't care about in addition to being in the top tier in the league in the on-off metrics as well. The offense that he is the main conductor of is putting up literally GOAT level numbers and it is entirely predicated on him destroying people in iso situations with amazing spacing.

The team that he is leading is proving to be a viable threat to maybe the greatest collection of talent in NBA history.

Harden versus Oladipo: In addition to everything above, Harden is way more efficient. Both are putting up impressive on-off metrics, but I'd argue it's harder to post those kind of on-off numbers when Chris Paul is you're back up point guard and the team is performing at +8-9 SRS level. That's not to say Oladipo is impressive, but it shows that what Harden is doing is more impressive because it's on a greater scale for a team with higher goals which should probably count for something in itself.

I'd argue that Harden is a significantly better playmaker and shooter than Oladipo and the basic numbers bare that out. In addition to the constant pressure that Harden's ability to draw fouls puts on the defense. Offensively I don't think it's all that close really. And I don't think Oladipo makes a big enough defensive impact to close the gap in any way that is substantial.

Still waiting of the Westbrook over Harden argument.

None of that sounded like an argument for Harden over the pack when almost everything you said applies to Chris Paul. That sounded like an argument for why Harden is in contention which is why like I said he's close as hell to Giannis to me.

I want to hear what makes him so much better than everyone else that its a travesty to not have him at 1?

And I care about how the team plays with the player on the floor not off. Oladipo has Indy playing at a +7.5 level with him on the floor and their 104.4 DRTG with Dipo would rate 2nd in the league if they played like that without him and he's their best defender by far (he's in the 91.3rd percentile of iso defenders and the 87.7th percentile of PNR defenders). Westbrook prior to Roberson's injury had OKC playing at a +7.4 level with him on the floor (now its down to +5.4) and OKC was playing great on both ends of the floor. Neither of them have Chris Paul, who is another legitimate top 5 level player. That's a legitimate knock against Harden in comparison to the others. Houston is 11-7 (+4.9) when CP3 is out and Harden has played every game CP3 missed. 18 games isn't a small sample either and his supporting cast is still very good without CP3.

Now he still averaged 33.8/5.3/10.3 on 62.9 TS% without CP3 so it's not like I'm saying he relies on CP3 for his own production. I'm saying that his team is so great because there's another player that's just as good as he is on the team.

Good points.

The thing that separates Harden from Paul for me is the load that Harden carries; more usage, more games played, Paul's minutes as the lead orchestrator are against more bench orientated lineups compared to Harden. CP is my favorite player all time, but at this stage of his career(or really any stage post 08) I don't think Paul could handle the load that Harden carries at all for a season.

I never said it was a travesty to not have Harden #1 but I did want to understand the thought process behind not even naming the consensus #1 in your original post at all.

The Westbrook stuff just tells me how important Roberson was to the team, which doesn't surprise me because I thought he was a legit DPOY candidate this season.

And I don't think it's fair to show Oladipo and Westbrook's net ratings with them on the floor and then compare how Harden's entire team did in an 18 game sample size without CP3. Why not just use Harden's net rating without CP3 for the whole year?

[K_chile22]

Houston is 11-7 (+4.9) when CP3 is out and Harden has played every game CP3 missed. 18 games isn't a small sample either and his supporting cast is still very good without CP3.

The net rating is bad there because the minutes Harden is off are deep in the red. That's some hardcore cherrypicking. Just use Harden on, Paul off for the season, him not playing at all doesn't make a difference there. They are -6 without either on the floor, and most of the time CP3 missed was pre-gerald Green

[bondom34]

Sigh...Roberson .

[K_chile22]

Harden on, Cp off is +9.

Russ on, Adams on, PG on, Melo on, thunder are +8.3

There's 0 argument for Russ over Harden

[bondom34]

Harden on, Cp off is +9.

Russ on, Adams on, PG on, Melo on, thunder are +8.3

There's 0 argument for Russ over Harden

Not arguing anything here at all but wanted to make a totally un POY related note.

Check that without Melo.

I hate everything.

[K_chile22]

Harden on, Cp off is +9.

Russ on, Adams on, PG on, Melo on, thunder are +8.3

There's 0 argument for Russ over Harden

Not arguing anything here at all but wanted to make a totally un POY related note.

Check that without Melo.

I hate everything.

I did, it was my first thought lol they're worse without Melo. Just +5.8, which was surprising