2018 Draft Thread #6

[Chi town]

That was the first time I've seen Porter in a game setting and my first impression was that he is absolutely not a 3 at the pro level. He's definitely a 4. He's bigger than I expected and not particularly quick.

Having a frontcourt of Porter/Markkanen seems…sub-optimal.

He’s the only guy in the top 9 I don’t want at all.

He is 100% a PF. He’s Niko lite IMO. Niko without the defense. PASS.

I didn't want him in the top 5 even before the injury, and considered him extremely overhyped as a potential #1 over-all pick. But if we end up picking 9th, there's no way I pass on him. You have to roll the dice at that point and hope you pulled a Paul Pierce type draft.

I don’t know about that. Let’s see after the tourney and combine. I’m all for rolling the dice and done believe MPJ will be there at 9... but at 9 someone would trade for him.

[Benedict Miller]

It should be fun today if Villanova sticks Bridges on Sexton today. I know Nova switches a lot on D but it should be interesting.

That would be a bad idea on Nova's part. Bridges can't stay in front of Sexton....

If Collin Sexton is the "fallback plan" I'm completely comfortable with that. No such thing as a sure thing but I think he's going to be a star.

I like Sexton myself, he could end up the best player available.

[Chi town]

It should be fun today if Villanova sticks Bridges on Sexton today. I know Nova switches a lot on D but it should be interesting.

That would be a bad idea on Nova's part. Bridges can't stay in front of Sexton....

If Collin Sexton is the "fallback plan" I'm completely comfortable with that. No such thing as a sure thing but I think he's going to be a star.

I'm not sold on any of the point guards as a top 10 pick, but if we go purely BPA and its a point guard, it better damn well be Sexton over Young.

No way. Young over Sexton all day.

Young fits into the new NBA. Sexton is fresh out the 90s. That game doesn’t translate anymore.

[Chi town]

He’s the only guy in the top 9 I don’t want at all.

He is 100% a PF. He’s Niko lite IMO. Niko without the defense. PASS.

I didn't want him in the top 5 even before the injury, and considered him extremely overhyped as a potential #1 over-all pick. But if we end up picking 9th, there's no way I pass on him. You have to roll the dice at that point and hope you pulled a Paul Pierce type draft.

I don’t know about that. Let’s see after the tourney and combine. I’m all for rolling the dice and done believe MPJ will be there at 9... but at 9 someone would trade for him.

Not to mention the back. That scares me.

I’d take Young over MPJ all day.

[Grodoboldo]

Shhhh, don’t go spreading the word.
Let someone else take Mikal before us. And Young also.

Miles had an great game no doubt, but that was a huge outlier against a team that was laughably mismatched from a physical explosiveness standpoint. He remains well behind Mikal as a prospect in my book.

However, “well behind” in this draft might only mean a slot or two due to the fall off. So I’m not discounting him as our pick. There’s just no way I take him over Mikal unless he continues to impress against teams that can at least get close to putting an athlete on him.

I wonder how many people even watched the MSU game. If anyone seriously thinks the way he got his points transfers to the NBA then I’ve got a bridge to sell them. He literally just bullied underdeveloped kids. Mikal remains a significantly better pro prospect.

C'mon guys, of course I'm not basing my entire opinion on this performance, we're just having fun over some confirmation bias after a game. Also, as I have said before, I'd be completely fine with Mikal, it's very reasonable to argue that he has a higher chance of having a more productive NBA career.

[DuckIII]

C'mon guys, of course I'm not basing my entire opinion on this performance, we're just having fun over some confirmation bias after a game. Also, as I have said before, I'd be completely fine with Mikal, it's very reasonable to argue that he has a higher chance of having a more productive NBA career.

Perfectly reasonable. I just think there is a notable gap between Mikal and Miles. However, I think there is a notable gap between the guys I have as the top 8 and then from 9 on down. Miles is in that second category for me.

So while I wouldn't entertain taking him over Mikal, I would entertain drafting him with our pick.

[_txchilibowl_]

That would be a bad idea on Nova's part. Bridges can't stay in front of Sexton....

If Collin Sexton is the "fallback plan" I'm completely comfortable with that. No such thing as a sure thing but I think he's going to be a star.

I'm not sold on any of the point guards as a top 10 pick, but if we go purely BPA and its a point guard, it better damn well be Sexton over Young.

No way. Young over Sexton all day.

Young fits into the new NBA. Sexton is fresh out the 90s. That game doesn’t translate anymore.

Funny because Trae Young reminds me of Mahmoud Abdul Rauf....

[bigworld2017]

That was the first time I've seen Porter in a game setting and my first impression was that he is absolutely not a 3 at the pro level. He's definitely a 4. He's bigger than I expected and not particularly quick.

Having a frontcourt of Porter/Markkanen seems…sub-optimal.

He’s the only guy in the top 9 I don’t want at all.

He is 100% a PF. He’s Niko lite IMO. Niko without the defense. PASS.

I didn't want him in the top 5 even before the injury, and considered him extremely overhyped as a potential #1 over-all pick. But if we end up picking 9th, there's no way I pass on him. You have to roll the dice at that point and hope you pulled a Paul Pierce type draft.

If we're picking 9th (or worse) and all the best prospects that fit our needs are gone, and we have to take a leap of faith on player based on potential then I think the enigma...Mitchell Robinson...might warrant a close look. The kid hasn't played in a year but his measurables are outstanding. In high school he averaged more blocks per 32 minutes than Bamba, Ayton or Bagley. The kid is a legitimate 7-1", has a 7' 4" wingspan and a 9' 3" standing reach. He can contest shots from the rim to the 3 point line. Like Bamba, he would be raw offensively. But he has the frame to put on muscle. He's athletic. At the combine he's very likely going to be able to match Bamba's performance. Porter Jr may have a great career going forward. I can't say. But he's a poor fit for us. He's not a "3". He's a "4". And that is our strongest position on the team. Lauri is better as a stretch "4" at this stage. Maybe 5 years and 20 pounds added and he could transition to a "5". But not right now. Lauri would play best with a rim protecting, strong rebounding "5" who is content with being the 5th option offensively. A lot will depend on the Combine and individual workouts. But Bamba and Robinson might not be that far apart in size or talent.

[bigworld2017]

Video for mitchell robinson nba draft▶ 3:06

Watch on YouTube

[Chi town]

He’s the only guy in the top 9 I don’t want at all.

He is 100% a PF. He’s Niko lite IMO. Niko without the defense. PASS.

I didn't want him in the top 5 even before the injury, and considered him extremely overhyped as a potential #1 over-all pick. But if we end up picking 9th, there's no way I pass on him. You have to roll the dice at that point and hope you pulled a Paul Pierce type draft.

If we're picking 9th (or worse) and all the best prospects that fit our needs are gone, and we have to take a leap of faith on player based on potential then I think the enigma...Mitchell Robinson...might warrant a close look. The kid hasn't played in a year but his measurables are outstanding. In high school he averaged more blocks per 32 minutes than Bamba, Ayton or Bagley. The kid is a legitimate 7-1", has a 7' 4" wingspan and a 9' 3" standing reach. He can contest shots from the rim to the 3 point line. Like Bamba, he would be raw offensively. But he has the frame to put on muscle. He's athletic. At the combine he's very likely going to be able to match Bamba's performance. Porter Jr may have a great career going forward. I can't say. But he's a poor fit for us. He's not a "3". He's a "4". And that is our strongest position on the team. Lauri is better as a stretch "4" at this stage. Maybe 5 years and 20 pounds added and he could transition to a "5". But not right now. Lauri would play best with a rim protecting, strong rebounding "5" who is content with being the 5th option offensively. A lot will depend on the Combine and individual workouts. But Bamba and Robinson might not be that far apart in size or talent.

I think Pels pick will be 14. I’d take Robinson there. Completely agree about Lauri next to a 5.

[CoreyVillains]

Miles had an great game no doubt, but that was a huge outlier against a team that was laughably mismatched from a physical explosiveness standpoint. He remains well behind Mikal as a prospect in my book.

However, “well behind” in this draft might only mean a slot or two due to the fall off. So I’m not discounting him as our pick. There’s just no way I take him over Mikal unless he continues to impress against teams that can at least get close to putting an athlete on him.

I wonder how many people even watched the MSU game. If anyone seriously thinks the way he got his points transfers to the NBA then I’ve got a bridge to sell them. He literally just bullied underdeveloped kids. Mikal remains a significantly better pro prospect.

C'mon guys, of course I'm not basing my entire opinion on this performance, we're just having fun over some confirmation bias after a game. Also, as I have said before, I'd be completely fine with Mikal, it's very reasonable to argue that he has a higher chance of having a more productive NBA career.

If the Pels pick somehow made its way to the lottery then I'd love to take him in that range. His attitude is really great, he plays super hard, most guys like that will find a way to contribute. I just think that people need to slow their roll on his upside because it isn't that high. There isn't any world in which he turns into a star player the way he plays now. It'd take him reworking his shot, learning to dribble, slimming down, reworking how he moves on the court. Right now he's a two foot jump hustle guy in the NBA.

[JimmyJammer]

If we go back at least 10 drafts, we'll find that there is always one or two players drafted 9 and down who end up overachieving and become a very solid player. In the 2011 draft, it was even more evident because most of the good players were drafted from 9-30. Klay Thompson(11), kawhi(15), kemba Walker(9), Tobias Harris(19), Morris brothers(13,14), Reggie Jackson(24), Mirotic(23), Butler(30). In the 2012 draft, Draymond Green, Crowder, Khris Middleton, Will Barton were all second rounders, with Drummond being selected at #9. 2013 brought us Antetokoumpo at 15, CJ McCollum at #10, Schroeder, etc. So, it's the job of the front office to find a key player at #8 or 9. Mikal Bridges is the obvious choice there, but what about Sexton, Kevin Knox, Lonnie Walker? There is always that one guy like Donovan Mitchell that nobody expects to be as good as they are.

[Dresden]

MPJ looks like complete ****.

He's also definitely a big and won't cut it at the 3 in the NBA.

2nd game back from back surgery. I don’t know what game you were watching but he clearly didn’t have his legs underneath him and was fatigued throughout the whole game. Also it’s known he hasn’t even been practicing (meaning he’s rusty).

I’m just glad you aren’t a Bulls scout cuz you’d prob take Mikal Bridges over him cuz he looked better.

Bingo!

[Dresden]

Robert Williams is really starting to catch my eye... Unreal athlete at 6-9... Can guard the perimeter... Reminds me of Aaron Gordon when he was at Zona

He's shooting like 46% though from the free throw line.

[Dresden]

That was the first time I've seen Porter in a game setting and my first impression was that he is absolutely not a 3 at the pro level. He's definitely a 4. He's bigger than I expected and not particularly quick.

Having a frontcourt of Porter/Markkanen seems…sub-optimal.

He’s the only guy in the top 9 I don’t want at all.

He is 100% a PF. He’s Niko lite IMO. Niko without the defense. PASS.

What can you possibly know about his defense?

[NDave79]

I was doing some research on Wendell Carter and decided do sort of an analytics comparison with his popular comparison Al Horford (also Draymond Green later on). Obviously, just looking at numbers can only take you so far, but I find it to be a good compliment to the eye test.

First off, here are a comparison of their measurements.

Horford- 6'8" barefoot, 6'9.75" with shoes (those are some thick soles), 8'11 standing reach, 246 lbs, 7'0.75" winspan

https://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-anthro/?SeasonYear=2017-18#!?SeasonYear=2007-08

Here are a couple sets of measurements taken of Wendell Carter

2016 USA basketball

6'9" with shoes, 9'1.5" standing reach, 254 lbs, 7'3.5" wingspan

http://ukrecruiting.bloginky.com/2016/06/18/official-measurements-for-uk-basketball-targets/

2017 Nike Hoop Summit

6'10" with shoes, 9.0" standing reach, 257 lbs, 7'3" wingspan

http://d1vision.com/nike-hoop-summit-usa-measurements/

So, there are some inconsistencies here and I'll be curious how he measures at the combine, but overall he appears to be a little bigger than Horford.

Next, I found it interesting how close Carters numbers compared to Horford's final (Junior) year numbers. Carter's numbers with Horford's in parenthesis. I'm using per 40 numbers to equalize, but their minutes played our similar anyways.

Scoring- 20.2 (19.0)
TS%- .627 (.624)
rebs- 13.7 (13.6)
assts- 3.0 (3.1)
stls- 1.2 (1.1)
blks- 3.2 (2.6)
tovs- 3.0 (2.6)

Carter is a more impressive shooter at this point shooting .735 on free throws compared to Horford's .644 and .442 on 3's while Horford basically didn't shoot any.

These numbers don't say much about defensive ability, one of Horford's biggest strengths. In the past, I've doubted Carter's ability to play out in space/defend pick and roll as well as his ability to protect the rim. However, some numbers suggest Carter's a fairly elite defender.

His defensive rating is 92.7. The defensive rating of Duke's 4 other starters are as follows:

Bagley- 96.3
Duval- 102.8
Allen- 102.0
Trent Jr- 102.7

His DBPM (defensive box plus minus) is a huge 7.7, while his total BPM is 13.7 (3rd highest in the country).

Draymond Green never put up all that impressive numbers, but he was a BPM monster his Junior (1st in college) and Senior (5th, Anthony Davis came in first) year. Interestingly, his BPM numbers are very similar to Carter.

Green

OPBM- 6.3 (Jr.), 5.5 (Sr.)

DPBM- 7.3 (Jr.), 7.2 (Sr.)

Carter-

OPBM- 6.0

DPBM- 7.7

This just made me wonder if their is any chance Carter could sort of become a bigger version of Draymond Green on the defensive end? Because in certain ways they remind me of each other. Slightly undersized (Green at the 4 and Carter at the 5), long armed, powerfully built, not considered elite athletes, intelligent.

So I'm not sure how I feel about Carter yet, but I have become more intrigued with him lately.

Just figured I'd share some of my random thoughts and research, lol.

[BigUps]

C'mon guys, of course I'm not basing my entire opinion on this performance, we're just having fun over some confirmation bias after a game. Also, as I have said before, I'd be completely fine with Mikal, it's very reasonable to argue that he has a higher chance of having a more productive NBA career.

Perfectly reasonable. I just think there is a notable gap between Mikal and Miles. However, I think there is a notable gap between the guys I have as the top 8 and then from 9 on down. Miles is in that second category for me.

So while I wouldn't entertain taking him over Mikal, I would entertain drafting him with our pick.

Don't worry, GarPax would take Mikal over Miles 99/100 days. I think Miles has a significantly higher ceiling (and floor for that matter). Maybe I'll change my opinion as the tournament goes on and I dive deeper into scouting them, but I want the high ceiling guy over the safer pick right now. This team needs a home run, not a single. My 2 cents.

[Fastbrk4brkfast]

So the folks whose entire body of understanding about MPJ is his one game last night aren't sold on him? Shocking.

[IcemanGervin]

So the folks whose entire body of understanding about MPJ is his one game last night aren't sold on him? Shocking.

I saw a video on ESPN where he was talking after the game and he was clearly distraught and said he wanted to things on the court that he always could but right now he just can't do them. Then he closed saying he is pain free for the first time in years and looks forward to getting back to 100%. So I mean what people saw in 2 whole college games was not even close to the type of player he is or will be.

[Fastbrk4brkfast]

That was the first time I've seen Porter in a game setting and my first impression was that he is absolutely not a 3 at the pro level. He's definitely a 4. He's bigger than I expected and not particularly quick.

Having a frontcourt of Porter/Markkanen seems…sub-optimal.

Respectfully disagree. If you want to take MPJ off your board because of health, I get that. Personally I'd absolutely roll the dice on him even if the Bulls wound up drafting #1. But if others like yourself knock him because of his injury that's a reasonable choice.

His game, however, is not a question mark from what I've seen. First, I definitely think he projects as a 3 at least early in his career similar to Durant. He has the handle and the perimeter game for it. His understanding of the game is unparalleled in this draft with the possible exception of Luka. If he somehow winds up a Bull next to Lauri, and they can stay reasonably healthy, you're looking at an Eastern conference champ in 6 or 7 years. He's going to be that kind of guy.