2018 Draft Thread Lucky #7

[Dresden]

Someone let me know when the Jaren Jackson I’m supposed to use a top 3 pick on shows up in the tournament. I know Izzo’s PT is inconsistent, but he’s been a non factor when he’s been on the floor.

Exactly. This guy's draft stock has to be taking a bit of a dive after his last 5 performances or so. He was a complete non factor today. I know he's very young and all, but still, not very impressive.

[Dresden]

MSU is playing so sloppy, rushed, and indecisive, and it's not like Syracuse is stacked with seniors. Syracuse starts two freshmen, one sophomore, and two juniors. They have one of the worst offenses in the country, yet they've managed to catch the Spartans out of position defensively on many possessions. Credit them for making MSU have to take out-of-rhythm shots with their 2-3 Zone defense.

It's hard to take something out of this game for Jackson or Bridges. Chances are that the 2-3 zone isn't going to dominate the NBA any time soon. Too many good shooters and too much exposure to offensive boards to be able to use that defense.

The way zones are usually defeated is from shooting over it, and Bridges proved today that he's not a good enough shooter to do that. So I think it does reflect negatively on him. What was he, like 4-15 today or something?

[Dresden]

If today was the only time I'd have watched JJJ, I'd definitely be unimpressed. I definitely think some here are a bit TOO high on him, but he's absolutely worth taking at 8 or 9. If we wind up top 5, I'd take others though.

Miles Bridges? No way in hell I'd have him in consideration at 8 or 9.

I think that's about right. At 8 or 9, JJJ is a good gamble. At 4 or 5, I'd be very hesitant, unless he just blows me away in workouts.

[CoreyVillains]

Mikal Bridges looks like a very good college player, right now I'm just not sure about his offense on the pro level. Doug McDermott was a much better offensive player, but him lacking in ball handling limited his potential in the NBA. Bridges seems to lack ball handling, creativity and has a slim frame for rebounding at the 3.

If Doug had Bridges defensive ability he’d never come off the floor.

[Dresden]

Jaren Jackson has bust written all over him.. He's the player that goes high that you pray multiple teams fall in love with so your guy falls to you.

Agreed. Just one of those bust players that the Bulls board falls in love with. He will be added to the DaJuan Blairs, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Michael Beasleys.

It's not just Bulls fans. Draftnet had him as high as #2 this year.

[CoreyVillains]

Did Miles Bridges look as bad as his line suggests?

Yup. He showed his shot isn’t up to par and quite honestly I thought he showed a low iq. He kept chucking and avoided attacking at all costs. Even with Cuse sitting in a zone, he could have played the nail or the baseline and used his athleticism to attack the defense, but instead he kept chucking.

[Benedict Miller]

Mikal Bridges looks like a very good college player, right now I'm just not sure about his offense on the pro level. Doug McDermott was a much better offensive player, but him lacking in ball handling limited his potential in the NBA. Bridges seems to lack ball handling, creativity and has a slim frame for rebounding at the 3.

If Doug had Bridges defensive ability he’d never come off the floor.

I agree

[Dresden]

Safe pick vs. upside pick isn’t a binary decision. I tend to value upside, but I’m not taking a swing on a guy with a 10% chance of stardom and a 50% chance of busting.

At the same time, I think people underestimate how often “safe picks” bust. If you’re drafting m a guy with the expectation that he’s an automatic plug and play, you’re doing it wrong.

Of course that is true- Doug McDermott was supposed to be a safe pick, as was Denzel. I wouldn't say Denzel is a bust because of where he was picked, but he's not nearly as good in the nba as he was in college.

And at the same time, if you do swing for the fences every time, you wind up with a lot of Qyntel Woods and Darius Miles and Desagana Diops.

Nothing is a sure thing in the draft, but I do think you can look at guys like Mikal Bridges and see that he has nba length, and has the skills to play quality defense in the nba, and his 3 pt shot should translate fairly well, too. It's not a guarantee lock to do so, but I think you can make an educated guess on him more so than on a guy like Trae Young, who some say should not even go in the lottery.

Huh?

2nd season MSU - 29.4 min, .408 FG, .377 3pt, .677 FT, 8.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.8 ast

2nd season CHI - 27.5 min, .419 FG, .391 3pt, .800 FT, 10.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.2 ast

Per 36 MSU Year 2 - 9.8 pts, 7.4 reb, 4.6 ast, 2.2 to (2.09 ast/to), 1.2 stl, .516 TS%

Per 36 CHI Year 2 - 13.3 pts, 7.0 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.6 to (2.72 ast/to), 1.0 stl, .531 TS%

I'm thinking it's quite damned rare for a college player - ESPECIALLY a 4-year college player - to put up basically the exact same stats in his 2nd NBA season that he put up in his 2nd NCAA season. I can't prove it, but I'm assuming there's a couple of posters who can give us the advanced stats on this.

I said before the Butler trade and tank - which I was (and still am) 100% against - that the only enjoyment I would get out of it would be the complete drinking of the kool-aid opinions that guys who don't have a 15+ PER and an above-league average TS% as a rookie, they are doomed to never have any chance of becoming an All-Star. And that they'll be gosh darned lucky to even be a competent NBA starter in their career.

I was called crazy for not drinking the kool-aid flavor that said the entire roster last year was nothing but garbage players who had no NBA future. Portis and Valentine were complete wastes of 1st-round picks. That Payne wasn't even a G-League level player and PaxGar were complete fools to pick up his 4th year option.

After the trade, the kool-aid flavor of the month was that Lauri was yet another slow Euro-stiff undoubtedly headed for Bust Mountain. That Dunn was already an absolute bust, possibly one of the worst in NBA history.

The season starts, and the Bulls start winning too many games, and the new kool-aid flavor is that PaxGar are idiots who put too much talent on this team to sucessfully tank. I have yet to hear from one single person who said BEFORE the season that this team had far too much talent to properly tank, hello where are you????????

The preseason "how many wins" thread had an easy majority saying the Bulls would win 25 games or less, BEFORE Niko missed 23 games and BEFORE Portis was suspended for 8 games and BEFORE LaVine was held out an extra 6-8 weeks and BEFORE Dunn missed 17 games.

And of course, the big tanker-truck full of kool-aid says that the Bulls have completely screwed up their future by not landing a top-3 pick. It's being closely followed down the highway by the ice cream truck-sized kool-aid tank that says there are 7 franchise players in this draft and the Bulls are completely effed because they'll be picking 8th at best.

The way all the other kool-aid spoiled so quickly, I'm actually now quite excited to see us pick 8th or 9th this summer. The kool-aid tells me that we'll get one of the 2 or 3 best players in the draft, and only have to pay him less than half what the top-3 picks will be paid over the next 4 years.

And I'm also getting pretty excited about the Pels' pick. 2 weeks ago, the kool-aid flayor was "that pick is going to be upper-20s at best", now it sits one game in the loss column out of the lottery. The 31-loss Clippers have a home game against the 30-loss Pels the last week of the season. If all things stay the same between now and then, a Clipper win puts them in the playoffs, and the Pels in the lottery.

For as much as I was against the Jimmy trade, the tank, and the Niko trade, I've actually received a pretty good level of enjoyment out of this Bulls season.

My official, early 2018-19 Bulls prediction: Assuming our pick doesn't hit top-3, no matter who we draft this summer, the kool-aid flavor will be that one of them is a bust by the All-Star break, and the other is a bust by the summer of 2019.

His last year in college, he put up 19/7/8 and a PER just shy of 30. Do you really think in two more years of NBA action he'll achieve that sort of success? If he did, I'd do backflips, but I just don't see that happening.

[bigworld2017]

Welp, MSU is out.

Duke (Bagley, Carter), Kentucky (Knox, Shai) and Villanova (Mikal Bridges) are the only teams left worth watching.

Mikal is going to play himself into the top 5.

I don't know. After today's game I'm looking forward to seeing Texas A&M again. Davis and Williams III were beasts out there. If we needed a "4" in this draft I think I'd go after Williams III. NBA body. Athletic. He impressed the hell out of me. I think he played his way into a lot of top "8 or 9" draft boards today.

[bigworld2017]

Interested to watch Robert Williams for A&M. He’s probably my favorite big for the Pels pick.

He'll go Top 10 in my opinion, based on his measurables and today's performance. Body wise he is NBA ready. Rugged. Can jump. He'll be a top 10 Rebounder in the NBA by his second year.

[bigworld2017]

Did Miles Bridges look as bad as his line suggests?

Not just Miles. The whole Spartan team. You can't expect to beat anybody when you shoot 17 for 66 overall and 8 of 37 from "3". It's like they never played against a zone before. They kept launching "3s" and losing the long rebounds all game long. Pathetic performance. Just pathetic.

[GimmeDat]

Williams is an elite vertical athlete on both ends, NBA ready frame, blocks shots, boards. It's clear he won't be able to ever do much more than that though. Doesn't really get to the line, can't shoot FT's when he gets there (46% this season), numbers are more or less the same as his freshman year.

He's got a very particular role. The question is, is he more of a Bismack (not the greatest comparison but the point being, a low skill level, limited player), or a Capela/Deandre.

That's why I wonder how he compares to Gafford. Gafford, if you're simply projecting him in a similar rim runner role, is pretty damn good in his own right - prolific dunker, shot blocker, rebounds pretty well, high motor. But he also has better touch on interior shots, better footwork, a little more semblance of a jumper (though not good either).. he just seems a little more well rounded potential wise.

He's not quite the phenom Williams is an explosive athlete but he's very good none-the-less.

Then you look at Johntay Porter who is super young, could still be growing, blocks a decent amount of shots, and has a far superior skill level to both, and I think we have a number of intriguing big options with the Pels pick. Not sure exactly where my preferences lie.

[TankForAyton]

Man, I just could not take Johntay over Williams. I think you pretty much nailed what Williams will be. He is absolutely devastating on the glass. He has a chance to be a real defensive dynamo.

[Chitownbulls]

Miles Bridges looked terrible today. Kid doesnt know how to attack the rim. He's a jump shooter, Ill pass.

[Dresden]

Williams has a 7'5.5" wingspan, at 6'9' or 10". That's bigger than Ayton's, and he's 3-4 inches shorter. I don't know if you can say he's never going to be more than a defender/rebounder. In the highlights of the first round, he showed some nice moves in the post, as well as a decent looking shot. That's not to say he'll blossom into Karl Malone, but he's got a bit of offensive potential. I'd consider him with the Pel pick for sure.

[Repeat 3-peat]

Williams reminds me of Bam Adebayo last year, whom went #14 to Miami. Bam has shown some good flashes of his potential, and could very well be Miami's future center if they want to move on from Whiteside.

[Benedict Miller]

Miles Bridges would be a reach at our current position.

[Polynice4Pippen]

I love watching J.P. Macura play.

[IcemanGervin]

Man, I just could not take Johntay over Williams. I think you pretty much nailed what Williams will be. He is absolutely devastating on the glass. He has a chance to be a real defensive dynamo.

Any GM that does that should be fired immediately

[FecesOfDeath]

MSU is playing so sloppy, rushed, and indecisive, and it's not like Syracuse is stacked with seniors. Syracuse starts two freshmen, one sophomore, and two juniors. They have one of the worst offenses in the country, yet they've managed to catch the Spartans out of position defensively on many possessions. Credit them for making MSU have to take out-of-rhythm shots with their 2-3 Zone defense.

It's hard to take something out of this game for Jackson or Bridges. Chances are that the 2-3 zone isn't going to dominate the NBA any time soon. Too many good shooters and too much exposure to offensive boards to be able to use that defense.

The way zones are usually defeated is from shooting over it, and Bridges proved today that he's not a good enough shooter to do that. So I think it does reflect negatively on him. What was he, like 4-15 today or something?

Syracuse was giving Michigan State the free throw area jump shot all game long, but then none of the MSU bigs assigned to that area (JJJ and his backup Ben Carter) wanted to take that shot. I believe JJJ took that shot on the first possession. Winston didn't even attempt that shot in the few times he was able to reach that area. It was like MSU was stuck in the analytics mindset of only shooting 3s or layups and dunks. If the Spartans knocked down a few of those 12-15 footers they would've easily loosened up that zone.

Miles isn't really a great spot up or catch and shoot shooter. He's a scorer and a rhythm shooter who needs a little bit of gathering time to get his shot up accurately. Obviously you can't leave him alone, but you don't need to chase him around like he's Korver or Redick. Syracuse basically turned Bridges into a spot up shooter, and his lack of assertiveness in the midrange rendered him ineffective.