'17-'18 POY discussion

[E-Balla]

Not sure what 12-8 has to do with anything. The Pelicans starters are still better than Clevelands.

I was just pointing out the mere difference in 4 points per 100 possessions, and most, if not all comes from the difference in caliber of teammates.

And I'm pointing out that it comes from Lebron being the worst defender in the L. The difference between Jrue Holiday and a bunch of scrubs and Lebron's starting cast doesn't explain the difference in performance at all. Is it so hard to admit Lebron hasn't been good?

I feel like you are now talking about something different than when you started.

My original reply was to the post stating LeBron's on-court rating is -0.2 while Davis is at +3.7. You pointed out the bench being the biggest differences, while I am under the belief that the starters are actually a larger difference.

I am not going to deny LeBron hasn't been good on the defensive end as he has been lackluster on that end. At the same time, he isn't the only Cavalier who has been a dumpster fire on that end. The team as a whole misses more rotations than I have seen from any team in the NBA this season.

The original premise was that Lebron leading Cleveland to 39 wins was more impressive than Davis doing it in NO. I pointed out Davis' superior on court rating and how Lebron's team without him being way better than NO without Davis is why. You blamed Lebron's starting 5. I mentioned Davis' team is still doing well without Boogie and without Boogie they have Davis, Jrue, and nobodies in the starting 5.

Davis and Bron don't play 100% of their minutes with starters so from the jump your premise was off.

[Dr Spaceman]

Duncan had an interesting point on New Orleans that I think I agree on. Taking out Cousins hasn't hurt as much since Davis is so variable in his game. Hes prone to having games he totally disappears but then totally goes off for a few weeks. So.when Cousins is there and he disappears they're still dropping games to bad teams and when he goes off it doesn't really help as much. But without him they're likely losing when he's bad anyway and he carries them to wins.

Cousins is a good offensive player but he hurts more on D than he helps on O. That’s been the entire turnaround. Their O is a little worse but D is now like 12th instead of 25th.

[Missing Rings]

The original premise was that Lebron leading Cleveland to 39 wins was more impressive than Davis doing it in NO.

My mistake. What Davis is doing is impressive, and more than anything shows how overrated a player like DeMarcus Cousins is.

[bondom34]

Wait.

NOLA had the 11th best net rating at 1.4 through 1/27.

Since they've been 18th at 0.8. I'm not really sure that's showing Cousins isn't really good. It was always an iffy fit and they were in short notice making it work.

[trex_8063]

Duncan had an interesting point on New Orleans that I think I agree on. Taking out Cousins hasn't hurt as much since Davis is so variable in his game. Hes prone to having games he totally disappears but then totally goes off for a few weeks. So.when Cousins is there and he disappears they're still dropping games to bad teams and when he goes off it doesn't really help as much. But without him they're likely losing when he's bad anyway and he carries them to wins.

Cousins is a good offensive player but he hurts more on D than he helps on O. That’s been the entire turnaround. Their O is a little worse but D is now like 12th instead of 25th.

I'm not a fan of Cousins, and have been disappointed in his defense this season, but you're over-simplifying here. It isn't just "Cousins left, they got better", because Cousins going down isn't the only change:
1) Shortly after he went down they got Mirotic (who imo is an underrated player);
2) Around the same time they also got aging Emeka Okafor (who's been playing very respectable defense in limited minutes).
3) Additionally, Cousins' absence has led to AD spending more time at the center position (where his defensive acumen is better utilized, imo).

[Moonbeam]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

Yeah, this season does seem a bit wonky. The tanking thing is a big storyline, and I wonder whether this is a permanent fixture or a last hurrah given the changes to the lottery from next year and the perceptions of the 2018 draft class.

To me, what is lacking is a class behind the elite class (Houston, GSW, Toronto), and this is where injuries come in. Right now I think only Boston is in that next tier, and they may have been in the elite class with a healthy Hayward and without resting Kyrie. The Spurs with Kawhi, Wolves with Butler, Cavs with Love, and Jazz with Gobert would probably make up that next tier above the middle class, but their injuries have seemed to have the effect of expanding the middle class and shifting it upwards a bit. The end result is that there are 12 teams with an SRS between 0.5 and 3.5, and that doesn't even include Cleveland.

As far as the winning streaks go, I think Utah's and Portland's are legitimate - they've both been awesome defensively of late, like sub-100 DRTG awesome. While Portland's streak is surprising, they have beaten some legitimately good teams, hot teams, and some good and hot teams in that span. Granted, some of those teams were missing key guys, but still: a win against a healthy Warriors team to start the streak, a road blowout of a healthy Utah (breaking their 11 game streak), a home win against an OKC team (minus Melo and Roberson), a road win against a then-hot Lakers team (minus Ingram), a home blowout of a Curry-less Warriors team, and a road blowout win on a back-to-back against a Clippers team fighting for its playoff lives. While I don't think Portland is suddenly a 60-win level juggernaut, they've convinced me they are better than the "crushingly mediocre" label that I myself had long given them.

[ardee]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

When you say there's something wrong, do you just mean unusual or do you mean you think it's a bad thing?

[ardee]

Yeah I think my top 5 is going to be Curry, Harden, Davis, LeBron and then one of Lillard, Westbrook or Giannis in some order going into the Playoffs.

[Pillendreher]

Yeah I think my top 5 is going to be Curry, Harden, Davis, LeBron and then one of Lillard, Westbrook or Giannis in some order going into the Playoffs.

What about Corey Brewer tho?

[iggymcfrack]

Top 5 for MVP vote (paying attention to games/minutes played):

1. Harden: Obviously. Pretty clear MVP this year, running away in every sense on one of the best teams of all time.
2. Giannis: 2nd in wins portion of RPM, 1st in Roland rating, 3rd in PER, 5th in WS
3. AD: 2nd in PER, 3rd in Roland Rating, 4th in WS, 6th in wins portion of RPM
4. Oladipo: Mad underrated, playing great on both ends and Pacers have a worse net rating than anyone in the league when he sits.
5. Honestly like a 10-way tie. Curry, Paul, and Butler are best in that order, but they’ve also missed most games in that order. James, Towns, and Westbrook have been flawed but incredibly durable. And in the middle, Embiid, Jokic, and Lillard all have good cases too. Really don’t see how you separate it.

[SideshowBob]

Read on Twitter

I will post In/Out data once the season wraps up.

Feel free to throw me requests.

[dontcalltimeout]

Read on Twitter

I will post In/Out data once the season wraps up.

Feel free to throw me requests.

I'm guessing you will do the contenders but I'm curious about the Jazz/Rudy, T-Wolves/Butler, and Wizards/Wall. (If that's too much Utah is the one I'm most interested in) Thanks!

[Dr Spaceman]

Read on Twitter

I will post In/Out data once the season wraps up.

Feel free to throw me requests.

I’m *gulp* trending in that direction as well.

I dunno. It seems like Draymond might just not be the same guy anymore. He wouldn’t be the first undersized guy who relies on motor to not have it after several years at a high level. If he isn’t 100% 2017 peak Draymond, I don’t know how I pick the Warriors. Throw in the injuries GSW are suffering right now and it feels like the tide is turning.

Houston is good, guys. All they have to do is maintain their current level and they’re in the GOAT conversation. I never thought we’d see two teams like this at the same time but here t is.

[Clyde Frazier]

Read on Twitter

I will post In/Out data once the season wraps up.

Feel free to throw me requests.

I’m *gulp* trending in that direction as well.

I dunno. It seems like Draymond might just not be the same guy anymore. He wouldn’t be the first undersized guy who relies on motor to not have it after several years at a high level. If he isn’t 100% 2017 peak Draymond, I don’t know how I pick the Warriors. Throw in the injuries GSW are suffering right now and it feels like the tide is turning.

Houston is good, guys. All they have to do is maintain their current level and they’re in the GOAT conversation. I never thought we’d see two teams like this at the same time but here t is.

HOU is certainly the only real competition for GSW, but if I had actual money on the line and both teams were at full strength, I still pick the warriors without hesitation. I'd say their continuity alone gives them an edge in a 7 game series. I'm still looking forward to seeing just how far the rockets can take this momentum going into the playoffs, though.

[Missing Rings]

Where do you guys have Rudy Gobert at the moment? Do you see him making a case for top 10?

[dhsilv2]

Where do you guys have Rudy Gobert at the moment? Do you see him making a case for top 10?

Missed too many games and he wasn't as good at the start of the year as he seems to be right now (where he might be playing around 10th right now).

[therealbig3]

Not sure how Curry is in the top 5 based on games played. He’s the best player when healthy, but he’s played so many less games than the competition.

[ronnymac2]

LeBron
KD
Curry
Harden
Davis

Sucks that Butler went down. Sucks that Kawhi isn't even here this season. Giannis, Westbrook, and Embiid just miss the cut. Lillard and Oladipo and Kyrie lead the next tier.

James Harden is clearly the MVP of the league. Not a huge fan, but he's an absolute workhorse. Nobody is more deserving of the MVP than James Harden. He's got it all. Best team in the league record-wise. Sidekick going down a lot and yet Harden continues to set them on a winning course. MPG and great stats. He's the complete package when it comes to Most Valuable Player.

Bron, KD, and Curry lead the pack because until further notice, those guys give you the best chance at a title in my opinion.

LeBron is LeBron . B-b-but player x is having a better season!

Obviously KD is the most controversial pick here. Granted, he's not the most impactful Warrior. But that SF/PF with good defense and great offense (portable 3-point shooting) archetype is so damn valuable to me. ElGee summed it up well in his writeup of KD in my opinion.

Curry is a clear number three. Again, not a big fan, but I don't hold the missed games against him, and to me, he's clearly a better player than James Harden. Curry's complete arsenal as a shooter is simply mind-boggling. He's just a juggernaut offensive player. Career-high foul draw by a lot shows me he is improving still. Career-high in defensive rebound rate, TS%, and 3-point attempt rate, too. Amazing season, and it's probably getting underrated.

I spoke on Harden. Davis is 5th barely so far. He's truly having an all-time great big man season. Considering his volume, his TOV% is absurd. Efficient offense, underrated ball-handler, great shooter, and he's playing very good defense as well.

[Dr Spaceman]

Read on Twitter

I will post In/Out data once the season wraps up.

Feel free to throw me requests.

I’m *gulp* trending in that direction as well.

I dunno. It seems like Draymond might just not be the same guy anymore. He wouldn’t be the first undersized guy who relies on motor to not have it after several years at a high level. If he isn’t 100% 2017 peak Draymond, I don’t know how I pick the Warriors. Throw in the injuries GSW are suffering right now and it feels like the tide is turning.

Houston is good, guys. All they have to do is maintain their current level and they’re in the GOAT conversation. I never thought we’d see two teams like this at the same time but here t is.

HOU is certainly the only real competition for GSW, but if I had actual money on the line and both teams were at full strength, I still pick the warriors without hesitation. I'd say their continuity alone gives them an edge in a 7 game series. I'm still looking forward to seeing just how far the rockets can take this momentum going into the playoffs, though.

I have GSW as favorites in a healthy matchup still, but at the beginning of the season I gave HOU a 0% shot, in January I was at about 10%, but as February and March have trucked along ive jumped to 30 and now 40-45%. Tucker gives the team a whole new dimension. There’s now downside to playing him unlike Anderson; he’s a workhorse on the offensive glass, he’s a great man defender at the four, shoots the three okay, he changes the series for me because no switch is going to kill them anymore.

HOU has a waaaaaaaay better bench as well. It’s not even close at this point. You can go all the way down their roster and still find guys who play really quality minutes. That’s not the case for GSW anymore. With Paul and Harden the Rockets get 48 minutes of that hyper-effective point guard controlling the offense and from there they can just throw guys at you. Ariza, Gordon, Tucker, MAM, Anderson, Capela, Nene is a video game-level supporting cast and they all bring something unique and valuable to the table. GSW does not have this type of lineup consistency; they can’t play Curry 48 minutes.

The Russillo/Simmons podcast they did recently really changed my mind on some things. A lot of smart people I trust are making a lot of noise about how fatigue, championship hangovers, loss of motivation, things like that are affecting GSW. Obviously you assume they will flip the switch until they don’t, just like LeBron, but I don’t know. Houston for 70% of the season has matched the absolute best basketball we’ve seen from golden State and they’re getting better as the year goes on. If GSW doesn’t have their big 4 at exactly 100% we are in for a real nail biter.

[dhsilv2]

I’m *gulp* trending in that direction as well.

I dunno. It seems like Draymond might just not be the same guy anymore. He wouldn’t be the first undersized guy who relies on motor to not have it after several years at a high level. If he isn’t 100% 2017 peak Draymond, I don’t know how I pick the Warriors. Throw in the injuries GSW are suffering right now and it feels like the tide is turning.

Houston is good, guys. All they have to do is maintain their current level and they’re in the GOAT conversation. I never thought we’d see two teams like this at the same time but here t is.

HOU is certainly the only real competition for GSW, but if I had actual money on the line and both teams were at full strength, I still pick the warriors without hesitation. I'd say their continuity alone gives them an edge in a 7 game series. I'm still looking forward to seeing just how far the rockets can take this momentum going into the playoffs, though.

I have GSW as favorites in a healthy matchup still, but at the beginning of the season I gave HOU a 0% shot, in January I was at about 10%, but as February and March have trucked along ive jumped to 30 and now 40-45%. Tucker gives the team a whole new dimension. There’s now downside to playing him unlike Anderson; he’s a workhorse on the offensive glass, he’s a great man defender at the four, shoots the three okay, he changes the series for me because no switch is going to kill them anymore.

HOU has a waaaaaaaay better bench as well. It’s not even close at this point. You can go all the way down their roster and still find guys who play really quality minutes. That’s not the case for GSW anymore. With Paul and Harden the Rockets get 48 minutes of that hyper-effective point guard controlling the offense and from there they can just throw guys at you. Ariza, Gordon, Tucker, MAM, Anderson, Capela, Nene is a video game-level supporting cast and they all bring something unique and valuable to the table. GSW does not have this type of lineup consistency; they can’t play Curry 48 minutes.

The Russillo/Simmons podcast they did recently really changed my mind on some things. A lot of smart people I trust are making a lot of noise about how fatigue, championship hangovers, loss of motivation, things like that are affecting GSW. Obviously you assume they will flip the switch until they don’t, just like LeBron, but I don’t know. Houston for 70% of the season has matched the absolute best basketball we’ve seen from golden State and they’re getting better as the year goes on. If GSW doesn’t have their big 4 at exactly 100% we are in for a real nail biter.

God I was going horse (online) over how absurd some of the GSW predictions were when KG went there, because that is not just real but it's dramatic. The reason lebron is so freakish is that nobody in a modern playoff format has been able to come close to what he keeps doing in the playoffs. The warriors have a team of humans, many of whom are somewhat injury prone, these long playoffs runs simply don't work with humans. No team has ever had a switch for 4 straight playoff runs. We saw it catchup with Kobe and Shaq, the spurs couldn't even string 2 straight titles, the bulls maybe could have had mj not retired, but my god Pippen basically gave away his health and career for their 6th title. Magic and he lakers are the closet other example I suppose but what was their best finals in a row? Warriors would almost be better off losing in the first round and coming back refreshed for another 2-3 year run. Though that won't happen.