The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[CoreyGallagher]

FG % is not the definitive measure of efficiency, PPP is much better. Simmons takes 15 possesions to score 16 points. Mitchell takes 18.5 to score 20. Meaning Mitchell gives you more points per possession than Simmons.

Idc about the actual discussion, but is this from synergy? Or are are you just using rounded fga and turnovers compared to points scored? It seems wrong.

[sfernald]

Simmons will finish his rookie season with more than 8rpg and 8apg.
Currently at 7.8rpg and 7.9apg....and rising dramatically.

If he gets to 16pts, 8rebs, 8asts, then this is the company he’ll join. This is a hall of fame level season...

[Alatan]

FG % is not the definitive measure of efficiency, PPP is much better. Simmons takes 15 possesions to score 16 points. Mitchell takes 18.5 to score 20. Meaning Mitchell gives you more points per possession than Simmons.

Idc about the discussion, but this seems wrong. Are you just using rounded fga and turnovers compared to points scored?

I used FGA+FTA/2 (i disregarded the and1s and assumed Simmons doesnt get fts for attempted 3s witch actually hurts Mitchell in comparison) compared to points scored all rounded down for the post. I dint include turnovers since they are affected by passing as well and Simmons has a higher responsibility in that area. But if you dont round it up Mitchell is still a more efficient scorer. Yeah its a rough approximation but its better than just using FG%.

[CoreyGallagher]

TS% and eFG% are better than fg% and estimating ppp.

EFG% effectively weighs a three point field goal as 50% more valuable to two point field goals, so basically weighing in game made field goals. TS% weighs field goals similarly, but with consideration of free throws (rate and %) as well, so overall scoring efficiency. I doubt Mitchell actually has higher ppp or rather pps rating when he has lesser TS% and eFG%.

That's not to say he's not a better scorer, I'd probably consider him that given their ways of scoring and roles.

[FinNasty]

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I thought that selecting Bam in the lottery was a reach, but I was so wrong. He's basically the prototypical modern non-stretching center. Can handle the ball in a motion offense, massive lob threat and incredible light feet in P&R defense. You can feel that Spoelstra prefers him over Whiteside at times.

He has definitely been earning Spo’s trust. Don’t worry about being wrong, even the Heat have been surprised lol. They figured he’d mainly be a developmental player this year. Had no idea they were getting a kid that contribute like he has in year 1...

[HartfordWhalers]

FG % is not the definitive measure of efficiency, PPP is much better. Simmons takes 15 possesions to score 16 points. Mitchell takes 18.5 to score 20. Meaning Mitchell gives you more points per possession than Simmons.

Idc about the discussion, but this seems wrong. Are you just using rounded fga and turnovers compared to points scored?

I used FGA+FTA/2 (i disregarded the and1s and assumed Simmons doesnt get fts for attempted 3s witch actually hurts Mitchell in comparison) compared to points scored all rounded down for the post. I dint include turnovers since they are affected by passing as well and Simmons has a higher responsibility in that area. But if you dont round it up Mitchell is still a more efficient scorer. Yeah its a rough approximation but its better than just using FG%.

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

[SmartWentCrazy]

With Kyrie looking like he may get shut down, we’ll get a case study on how Tatum wouldve done with an increased role this season. FWIW, hes averaging 17-6-3-1– on 46/36 shooting with 14 shots per game during the past 4 games Kyrie and Jaylen missed.

[Alatan]

Idc about the discussion, but this seems wrong. Are you just using rounded fga and turnovers compared to points scored?

I used FGA+FTA/2 (i disregarded the and1s and assumed Simmons doesnt get fts for attempted 3s witch actually hurts Mitchell in comparison) compared to points scored all rounded down for the post. I dint include turnovers since they are affected by passing as well and Simmons has a higher responsibility in that area. But if you dont round it up Mitchell is still a more efficient scorer. Yeah its a rough approximation but its better than just using FG%.

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

[HartfordWhalers]

I used FGA+FTA/2 (i disregarded the and1s and assumed Simmons doesnt get fts for attempted 3s witch actually hurts Mitchell in comparison) compared to points scored all rounded down for the post. I dint include turnovers since they are affected by passing as well and Simmons has a higher responsibility in that area. But if you dont round it up Mitchell is still a more efficient scorer. Yeah its a rough approximation but its better than just using FG%.

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

If your point was that Mitchell was the more efficient scorer, than creating a new stat showing Simmons is more efficient per possession wasn't great supporting basis.

[Alatan]

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

If your point was that Mitchell was the more efficient scorer, than creating a new stat showing Simmons is more efficient per possession wasn't great supporting basis.

My "artificial" stat, as rough as it is is still better than claiming that Simmons is a more efficient scorer because he has a higher FG% that is wildly present in this forum.
Didnt know that i needed to write a scientific paper to point that out. And the term artificial stat is a little bit funny since the advanced stats you probably love are as artificial as mine rough approximation but much more refined. Maybe this whole issue would be avoided if i didnt use the term PPP.

The bottom line is i didnt try to precisely measure the efficiency of said players and pinpoint on who and how much is more efficient, but to show that Mitchell has the same efficiency as Simmons even though he has a much greater offensive load making him the more efficient player.

[michaelm]

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

If your point was that Mitchell was the more efficient scorer, than creating a new stat showing Simmons is more efficient per possession wasn't great supporting basis.

Mitchell is likely to be a great offensive player in the NBA for years to come and is likely to significantly improve including efficiency wise from what he is already doing ie being the most important scorer for what looks very much like an upper echelon team.

A semi-reliable jumpshot would make Simmons absolutely unstoppable and the lack thereof currently is obviously a flaw, but if his assists are to be discounted as some have done because he plays PG, then it would seem illogical to mark him down for averaging 3 points less than Mitchell when Mitchell is Utah’s primary scorer while Simmons isn’t the primary scorer for the Sixers. Many Sixers fans think he defers too much to other players he considers to be better options than him, given he has shown the ability on occasion to take a game by the scruff of the neck and get to the rim pretty much at will when he chooses to be aggressive, in the regular season at least.

[bebopdeluxe]

I used FGA+FTA/2 (i disregarded the and1s and assumed Simmons doesnt get fts for attempted 3s witch actually hurts Mitchell in comparison) compared to points scored all rounded down for the post. I dint include turnovers since they are affected by passing as well and Simmons has a higher responsibility in that area. But if you dont round it up Mitchell is still a more efficient scorer. Yeah its a rough approximation but its better than just using FG%.

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

Offensive load?

Simmons is the freaking POINT GUARD. He RUNS THE OFFENSE.

I am getting so sick of this “Yeah, but Mitchell carries the Jazz!” crap. The guy is FOURTH in WS and VORP on the Jazz.

FOURTH.

Simmons not only SMOKES Mitchell in the overwhelming majority of advanced analytics, he LEADS HIS TEAM in most of those categories as well.

Mitchell is a key contributor to the Jazz’s success. He is a phenominal scorer for a rookie. But there is more to carrying the “offensive load” then scoring the ball. When you combine Simmons’ efficiency as a scorer with the obvious production that comes with being in the top 5 in the NBA in assists, as well as the basic responsibility that comes with being a team’s POINT GUARD, it is pretty clear which player carries more of the “offensive load” for their team.

[Alatan]

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

Offensive load?

Simmons is the freaking POINT GUARD. He RUNS THE OFFENSE.

I am getting so sick of this “Yeah, but Mitchell carries the Jazz!” crap. The guy is FOURTH in WS and VORP on the Jazz.

FOURTH.

Simmons not only SMOKES Mitchell in the overwhelming majority of advanced analytics, he LEADS HIS TEAM in most of those categories as well.

Mitchell is a key contributor to the Jazz’s success. He is a phenominal scorer for a rookie. But there is more to carrying the “offensive load” then scoring the ball. When you combine Simmons’ efficiency as a scorer with the obvious production that comes with being in the top 5 in the NBA in assists, as well as the basic responsibility that comes with being a team’s POINT GUARD, it is pretty clear which player carries more of the “offensive load” for their team.

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult. And to be frank most of the advanced stats are bull anyways. If you watch the way assists are given out for regular passes, rebounds being hugely influenced by team defensive schemes, steal and blocks being products of gambling and stat hunting as much as by product of good defense, plus minus stats being heavily influenced by who plays behind you and in what lineups a player plays, there is no way that advanced stats are reliable. Fruit of the poison tree and all that. The bloody things portray Jokic and Westbrook as good defenders... Nope no way id use them as the ultimate proof on who is what, only as indicators on where and what to look at. And when i looked i saw that Simmons is a player who needs to be built around to maximize his limited game while Mitchell is a player that is great wherever you throw him and will be much, MUCH better.

And to add, i think Simmons has great vision and passing ability, he just doesnt use it because the floor is closed to him since he has range shorter than his haircut. If he ever developed at least a mid range shot things could be much different.

[Tomjas]

Ignoring whether your mathematical basis sucked to begin with, the execution was faulty.

As of now:
Mitchell: 1333 points: 1118 fga, 235 fta, Artificial possessions: 1235.5. Points per artificial possession: 1.078915419
Simmons: 1100 points. 871 fga, 294 fta, Artificial possessions: 1018. Points per artificial possession: 1.080550098

I wouldn't want to be making a big point off 1.0806 versus 1.0789, but Simmons is more efficient in that made up metric if you don't screw up the rounding.

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

Offensive load?

Simmons is the freaking POINT GUARD. He RUNS THE OFFENSE.

I am getting so sick of this “Yeah, but Mitchell carries the Jazz!” crap. The guy is FOURTH in WS and VORP on the Jazz.

FOURTH.

Simmons not only SMOKES Mitchell in the overwhelming majority of advanced analytics, he LEADS HIS TEAM in most of those categories as well.

Mitchell is a key contributor to the Jazz’s success. He is a phenominal scorer for a rookie. But there is more to carrying the “offensive load” then scoring the ball. When you combine Simmons’ efficiency as a scorer with the obvious production that comes with being in the top 5 in the NBA in assists, as well as the basic responsibility that comes with being a team’s POINT GUARD, it is pretty clear which player carries more of the “offensive load” for their team.

I found that to be a very strange claim as well

Many also make it sound as if Simmons and Embiid are playing together constantly when the reality is that they share the floor for less than 17 minutes per game with more than 50% of their time being spent running secondary units independently

[Stonk]

Embiid may be the primary scorer, but Simmons is fast becoming the most important payer for that team, if he isn't already.

[Tomjas]

Embiid may be the primary scorer, but Simmons is fast becoming the most important payer for that team, if he isn't already.

Has been for the past month or so IMO

Embiid has an undeniable impact upon the game but he's a turnover machine at present

Fun fact: the Sixers top rated 5 man unit for the past month is run by Simmons and doesnt include Joel

[_Joker]

Is this Alatan for real?

[_Joker]

Embiid may be the primary scorer, but Simmons is fast becoming the most important payer for that team, if he isn't already.

During yesterday's game Embiid put up some monster stats with points and boards, but was a net-negative in the +/- (of 9).

Simmons was net positive of 30.

[mediocrityrules]

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

Offensive load?

Simmons is the freaking POINT GUARD. He RUNS THE OFFENSE.

I am getting so sick of this “Yeah, but Mitchell carries the Jazz!” crap. The guy is FOURTH in WS and VORP on the Jazz.

FOURTH.

Simmons not only SMOKES Mitchell in the overwhelming majority of advanced analytics, he LEADS HIS TEAM in most of those categories as well.

Mitchell is a key contributor to the Jazz’s success. He is a phenominal scorer for a rookie. But there is more to carrying the “offensive load” then scoring the ball. When you combine Simmons’ efficiency as a scorer with the obvious production that comes with being in the top 5 in the NBA in assists, as well as the basic responsibility that comes with being a team’s POINT GUARD, it is pretty clear which player carries more of the “offensive load” for their team.

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult. And to be frank most of the advanced stats are bull anyways. If you watch the way assists are given out for regular passes, rebounds being hugely influenced by team defensive schemes, steal and blocks being products of gambling and stat hunting as much as by product of good defense, plus minus stats being heavily influenced by who plays behind you and in what lineups a player plays, there is no way that advanced stats are reliable. Fruit of the poison tree and all that. The bloody things portray Jokic and Westbrook as good defenders... Nope no way id use them as the ultimate proof on who is what, only as indicators on where and what to look at. And when i looked i saw that Simmons is a player who needs to be built around to maximize his limited game while Mitchell is a player that is great wherever you throw him and will be much, MUCH better.

And to add, i think Simmons has great vision and passing ability, he just doesnt use it because the floor is closed to him since he has range shorter than his haircut. If he ever developed at least a mid range shot things could be much different.

Did you just basically argue that all stats (including assists, rebounds etc) are useless and overrated except ppg?


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[Alatan]

Offensive load?

Simmons is the freaking POINT GUARD. He RUNS THE OFFENSE.

I am getting so sick of this “Yeah, but Mitchell carries the Jazz!” crap. The guy is FOURTH in WS and VORP on the Jazz.

FOURTH.

Simmons not only SMOKES Mitchell in the overwhelming majority of advanced analytics, he LEADS HIS TEAM in most of those categories as well.

Mitchell is a key contributor to the Jazz’s success. He is a phenominal scorer for a rookie. But there is more to carrying the “offensive load” then scoring the ball. When you combine Simmons’ efficiency as a scorer with the obvious production that comes with being in the top 5 in the NBA in assists, as well as the basic responsibility that comes with being a team’s POINT GUARD, it is pretty clear which player carries more of the “offensive load” for their team.

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult. And to be frank most of the advanced stats are bull anyways. If you watch the way assists are given out for regular passes, rebounds being hugely influenced by team defensive schemes, steal and blocks being products of gambling and stat hunting as much as by product of good defense, plus minus stats being heavily influenced by who plays behind you and in what lineups a player plays, there is no way that advanced stats are reliable. Fruit of the poison tree and all that. The bloody things portray Jokic and Westbrook as good defenders... Nope no way id use them as the ultimate proof on who is what, only as indicators on where and what to look at. And when i looked i saw that Simmons is a player who needs to be built around to maximize his limited game while Mitchell is a player that is great wherever you throw him and will be much, MUCH better.

And to add, i think Simmons has great vision and passing ability, he just doesnt use it because the floor is closed to him since he has range shorter than his haircut. If he ever developed at least a mid range shot things could be much different.

Did you just basically argue that all stats (including assists, rebounds etc) are useless and overrated except ppg?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Not that they are useless but that they can be and are often are misleading. And id include ppg there as well as there are players that are great at scoring the ball but are useless without the ball making the team as a whole worse.

Stats need to be used in context otherwise they are not a good proof of anything.