The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[mtron929]

ROY was never complicated. The player who put up the most impressive offensive stats has won the award since forever. Never had to do with winning (guys like Kevin Durant had very bad advanced stats his rookie year). Never had to do with defense (KAT was a horrible defender his rookie year, but no one cared). Just who put up the most impressive offensive stats.

[PhilBlackson]

Simmons will win it (period).

At absolute worst "co-ROY"....personally I enjoy watching Mitchell more but in a league that is in love with the triple double/stats there's no way to really deny Ben of it.

Aside from that though I really like what we're finally seeing from Jackson now. His mechanics aren't quite smooth yet but still drastically improved imo which is very encouraging moving forward. Tatum is also getting a chance now to shine, having a big game tonight too.

[GreenBloodedC]

Tatum with 23 points again without Kyrie and Celtics W.

[SmartWentCrazy]

With Kyrie looking like he may get shut down, we’ll get a case study on how Tatum wouldve done with an increased role this season. FWIW, hes averaging 17-6-3-1– on 46/36 shooting with 14 shots per game during the past 4 games Kyrie and Jaylen missed.

Monster game from Tatum. 23-11-4-1–1 on 8/12 shooting (3/6 from deep, 4/4 FTs).

[bebopdeluxe]

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult. And to be frank most of the advanced stats are bull anyways. If you watch the way assists are given out for regular passes, rebounds being hugely influenced by team defensive schemes, steal and blocks being products of gambling and stat hunting as much as by product of good defense, plus minus stats being heavily influenced by who plays behind you and in what lineups a player plays, there is no way that advanced stats are reliable. Fruit of the poison tree and all that. The bloody things portray Jokic and Westbrook as good defenders... Nope no way id use them as the ultimate proof on who is what, only as indicators on where and what to look at. And when i looked i saw that Simmons is a player who needs to be built around to maximize his limited game while Mitchell is a player that is great wherever you throw him and will be much, MUCH better.

And to add, i think Simmons has great vision and passing ability, he just doesnt use it because the floor is closed to him since he has range shorter than his haircut. If he ever developed at least a mid range shot things could be much different.

Did you just basically argue that all stats (including assists, rebounds etc) are useless and overrated except ppg?


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Not that they are useless but that they can be and are often are misleading. And id include ppg there as well as there are players that are great at scoring the ball but are useless without the ball making the team as a whole worse.

Stats need to be used in context otherwise they are not a good proof of anything.

This post is like a word salad. I don’ t even know what the point of your first couple of sentances is.

Are you saying that statistics - both “counting” stats (like POINTZ!!!) as well as advanced analytics - aren’t able to say anything on an absolute level? That stats only matter in “context”? So...who determines the “context”?

(and just out of curiosity, do you feel the same way about “facts”?)

I haven’t seen a SINGLE national NBA observer link the phrase “Donovan Mitchell” with the phrase “All Defensive Team”. Not one. You can say anthing you want about Mitchell’s defense, but there is a reason why some national observers think that Simmons deserves that consideration - as well as some voters:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/7zgk39/kevin_arnovitz_reveals_one_of_his_allnba/

It comes from both advanced stats and just watching the guy play. He switches one through four, and he helped hang a MINUS FORTY on MKG last night.

And if your argument as to why Simmons’ defensive stats are what they are is because Embiid is behind him, then what is Mitchell’s excuse?

(only a couple more monrhs of this stuff)

[CoreyGallagher]

Yeah, that was a huge game from Tatum. Nice W

[Ascrilas]

Tatum is proving what us Celtics fans have always said - his stats may look pedestrian due to the sheer amount of good teammates he has had to play with the whole season, but his actual skill level is way higher. Now that he's got the same opportunity as guys like Mitchell, he shows what he can do. Homer knee-jerk reaction, but (while being aware of his slump the months earlier) just based on these few games I am ready to claim again that Tatum is still the most talented player drafted in 2017.

[deflated]

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult. And to be frank most of the advanced stats are bull anyways. If you watch the way assists are given out for regular passes, rebounds being hugely influenced by team defensive schemes, steal and blocks being products of gambling and stat hunting as much as by product of good defense, plus minus stats being heavily influenced by who plays behind you and in what lineups a player plays, there is no way that advanced stats are reliable. Fruit of the poison tree and all that. The bloody things portray Jokic and Westbrook as good defenders... Nope no way id use them as the ultimate proof on who is what, only as indicators on where and what to look at. And when i looked i saw that Simmons is a player who needs to be built around to maximize his limited game while Mitchell is a player that is great wherever you throw him and will be much, MUCH better.

And to add, i think Simmons has great vision and passing ability, he just doesnt use it because the floor is closed to him since he has range shorter than his haircut. If he ever developed at least a mid range shot things could be much different.

Did you just basically argue that all stats (including assists, rebounds etc) are useless and overrated except ppg?


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Not that they are useless but that they can be and are often are misleading. And id include ppg there as well as there are players that are great at scoring the ball but are useless without the ball making the team as a whole worse.

Stats need to be used in context otherwise they are not a good proof of anything.

Do you understand that it is difficult to hold a discussion with you as you have effectively stated that statistics are misleading without context but you do not accept any context/interpretation other than your own? Particularly as that interpretation differs wildly from the vast majority of opinions from both amateur and professional commentators.

I guess we could break down game tape of Simmons and Mitchell if we wanted to take this further but your assessment of Simmons is so radically different from my own eye test I suspect it would go poorly.

[sfernald]

Wow dmitch 24 pts on 28 shots WTF

[bebopdeluxe]

28 shots. One for TEN from 3.

Also, 41 minutes...which is both notable and ridiculous. The way Snyder has basically turned the candy store over to Mitchell might both be 1) great for Mitchell’s development as well as 2) the only option he has.

To his credit, Mitchell is doing everything he can to help his team win. It can only benefit him as he grows his game.

[Alatan]

Did you just basically argue that all stats (including assists, rebounds etc) are useless and overrated except ppg?


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Not that they are useless but that they can be and are often are misleading. And id include ppg there as well as there are players that are great at scoring the ball but are useless without the ball making the team as a whole worse.

Stats need to be used in context otherwise they are not a good proof of anything.

Do you understand that it is difficult to hold a discussion with you as you have effectively stated that statistics are misleading without context but you do not accept any context/interpretation other than your own? Particularly as that interpretation differs wildly from the vast majority of opinions from both amateur and professional commentators.

I guess we could break down game tape of Simmons and Mitchell if we wanted to take this further but your assessment of Simmons is so radically different from my own eye test I suspect it would go poorly.

Ok, to clarify my point of view.

I am arguing that Mitchell is a more versatile and compared to his role, more efficient player than Simmons because he does everything that Simmons does except rebounding on a lesser level and does other things such as playing off ball, creating from multiple areas of the floor and finishing in a greater variety of ways much better.

The raw and advanced stats dont agree with that and therefor i have also argued that often the stats are misleading as in the case of Simmons. They are inflated due to his specific role in the Sixers offense and defense and that that led to his advanced stats being inflated as well. Im not arguing that he is not a good play maker or that he is not a good rebounder or even that he is a bad scorer but that his assist numbers are inflated because of him being the dominant ball handler that mostly creates slight advantages witch half the time i wouldnt call assists, that his rebounds are inflated by the rebounding scheme and role and that his efficiency numbers are inflated by him taking a low scoring volume and being a 2nd/3rd option on offense.

On the other hands Mitchells stats are lowered by him sharing ball handling duties with other players, his rebounding by playing D further from the rim and his efficiency by being the primary scoring option on a team without many shot creators and floor spacers.

Again i am not saying that Simmons is not a great player but that Mitchell is better.

Yes, i understand that it is difficult to prove anything if we dont have reliable, measurable and comparable facts but such is the case in basketball.

[deflated]

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult.

Not meaning to pile on about your opinions but this was far enough from what I've seen I couldn't leave it alone. Taking Simmons' 15 assist game against the Hornets as an example:
- I'd consider 3 of the assists to be drive-and-kick, all of them in transition.
- 1 was off a blown play (the Belinelli dunk), was his best pass of the night
- 1 was just putrid perimeter defense from the Hornets, SImmons down low with everyone open on the 3pt line (Roseanne could've picked up the assist if she was out there)
- the rest were in half court situations and did not involve drives; the bread and butter plays a PG has to make and he delivered on

The plays I found most interesting were the Sixers taking advantage of the Hornets refusal to guard Simmons at the perimeter. The conventional wisdom is that you sag off Simmons and deny the drive; his response was to dribble to a position where he could screen/hand-off to a Redick or Covington who then had a wide open attempt for 3 as the screen defender is down near the free throw line (Simmons appears to be a willing and effective screener). Simmons did a good job of keeping the threat of the drive in play until it was too late for his defender to help on the screen; there is a lot of potential in that pattern as teams get more serious about defending SImmons.

Simmons isn't a one dimensional passer with no ability in the half court. There is no obvious signs of the Sixers offence bogging down because of his lack of an outside shot. He passes the eye test as a PG.

[RB34]

Ok, i was lazy, used average instead of total stats and rounded them down but why does my basis suck? The point still stands that if you consider the offensive load and defensive pressure Mithcell faces he is a more efficient scorer.

Offensive load?

Simmons is the freaking POINT GUARD. He RUNS THE OFFENSE.

I am getting so sick of this “Yeah, but Mitchell carries the Jazz!” crap. The guy is FOURTH in WS and VORP on the Jazz.

FOURTH.

Simmons not only SMOKES Mitchell in the overwhelming majority of advanced analytics, he LEADS HIS TEAM in most of those categories as well.

Mitchell is a key contributor to the Jazz’s success. He is a phenominal scorer for a rookie. But there is more to carrying the “offensive load” then scoring the ball. When you combine Simmons’ efficiency as a scorer with the obvious production that comes with being in the top 5 in the NBA in assists, as well as the basic responsibility that comes with being a team’s POINT GUARD, it is pretty clear which player carries more of the “offensive load” for their team.

Oh, spare me the story that Simmons runs the offense. The guy charges at the rim and kicks out 90% of the time. Super difficult. And to be frank most of the advanced stats are bull anyways. If you watch the way assists are given out for regular passes, rebounds being hugely influenced by team defensive schemes, steal and blocks being products of gambling and stat hunting as much as by product of good defense, plus minus stats being heavily influenced by who plays behind you and in what lineups a player plays, there is no way that advanced stats are reliable. Fruit of the poison tree and all that. The bloody things portray Jokic and Westbrook as good defenders... Nope no way id use them as the ultimate proof on who is what, only as indicators on where and what to look at. And when i looked i saw that Simmons is a player who needs to be built around to maximize his limited game while Mitchell is a player that is great wherever you throw him and will be much, MUCH better.

And to add, i think Simmons has great vision and passing ability, he just doesnt use it because the floor is closed to him since he has range shorter than his haircut. If he ever developed at least a mid range shot things could be much different.

Regardless of who wins it or who is better overall, this is honestly one of the worst posts I’ve ever read.

[HotelVitale]

Tatum is proving what us Celtics fans have always said - his stats may look pedestrian due to the sheer amount of good teammates he has had to play with the whole season, but his actual skill level is way higher. Now that he's got the same opportunity as guys like Mitchell, he shows what he can do. Homer knee-jerk reaction, but (while being aware of his slump the months earlier) just based on these few games I am ready to claim again that Tatum is still the most talented player drafted in 2017.

I've always liked Tatum and thought he was as good a prospect as anyone this year, and he's been better than I expected. Would be perfect fit on my Sixers too, not easy to keep from crying every time I think about that trade.

That said, the opportunity thing goes both ways and I don't think Tatum getting 18-20 shots per game this year would be pretty. As a rookie who shoots a lot of difficult jumpers, he'd have a ton of games where he went like 4/19, and he also doesn't have the ease getting shots that Mitchell has. Think there'd be a lot of pivots and fadeaways, and while his counting stats would be better he'd be a worse player by a good measure.

[PLO]

Jon Isaac is a menace. Doncic or Trae on that team would be really really fun to watch.

[BIGJ1ER]

Not that they are useless but that they can be and are often are misleading. And id include ppg there as well as there are players that are great at scoring the ball but are useless without the ball making the team as a whole worse.

Stats need to be used in context otherwise they are not a good proof of anything.

Do you understand that it is difficult to hold a discussion with you as you have effectively stated that statistics are misleading without context but you do not accept any context/interpretation other than your own? Particularly as that interpretation differs wildly from the vast majority of opinions from both amateur and professional commentators.

I guess we could break down game tape of Simmons and Mitchell if we wanted to take this further but your assessment of Simmons is so radically different from my own eye test I suspect it would go poorly.

Ok, to clarify my point of view.

I am arguing that Mitchell is a more versatile and compared to his role, more efficient player than Simmons because he does everything that Simmons does except rebounding on a lesser level and does other things such as playing off ball, creating from multiple areas of the floor and finishing in a greater variety of ways much better.

The raw and advanced stats dont agree with that and therefor i have also argued that often the stats are misleading as in the case of Simmons. They are inflated due to his specific role in the Sixers offense and defense and that that led to his advanced stats being inflated as well. Im not arguing that he is not a good play maker or that he is not a good rebounder or even that he is a bad scorer but that his assist numbers are inflated because of him being the dominant ball handler that mostly creates slight advantages witch half the time i wouldnt call assists, that his rebounds are inflated by the rebounding scheme and role and that his efficiency numbers are inflated by him taking a low scoring volume and being a 2nd/3rd option on offense.

On the other hands Mitchells stats are lowered by him sharing ball handling duties with other players, his rebounding by playing D further from the rim and his efficiency by being the primary scoring option on a team without many shot creators and floor spacers.

Again i am not saying that Simmons is not a great player but that Mitchell is better.

Yes, i understand that it is difficult to prove anything if we dont have reliable, measurable and comparable facts but such is the case in basketball.

Are you really just saying to ignore all the stats because in your opinion donovan mitchell is just better? Because every statistic says otherwise. Even the eye test says otherwise IMO, but thats just me. And by the way, all this talk about simmons having the ball more, you realize mitchell has the higher usg% rate? A 6% difference is a solid margin, so I'd say if anything donny is using up more of utah's possessions than simmons, which gives him more opportunites to score and playmake. I don't really get your argument at all.

[Winglish]

This just in- Both Donovan Mitchell and the entire Utah Jazz sucked dog last night in a loss to the lowly Hawks.

There's no denying it. Last night the Jazz were AWFUL.

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[Mr Waternoose]

Embiid may be the primary scorer, but Simmons is fast becoming the most important payer for that team, if he isn't already.

Has been for the past month or so IMO

Embiid has an undeniable impact upon the game but he's a turnover machine at present

Fun fact: the Sixers top rated 5 man unit for the past month is run by Simmons and doesnt include Joel

Way overstated

Sixers Turnover percentage

with Embiid on floor 16.1
with Embiid off floor 18.4

Sixers turn the ball over significantly less when Embiid is on the floor

[Novocaine]

Embiid may be the primary scorer, but Simmons is fast becoming the most important payer for that team, if he isn't already.

Has been for the past month or so IMO

Embiid has an undeniable impact upon the game but he's a turnover machine at present

Fun fact: the Sixers top rated 5 man unit for the past month is run by Simmons and doesnt include Joel

Way overstated

Sixers Turnover percentage

with Embiid on floor 16.1
with Embiid off floor 18.4

Sixers turn the ball over significantly less when Embiid is on the floor

Very likely not because of Embiid though - he averages 6 turnovers per 100 possessions, which is extremely high by any standard and the highest on the team. In fact, in the entire league, the only player with a higher number of turnover per possession is Westbrook, one of the most ball-dominant players in the history of the game. Even if Embiid was contributing to lower the 76ers aggregate turnover rate (due to guys like Amir Johnson, McConnell or Saric turning over the ball even more without him making plays, forcing them to create more or whatever), he'd still be a turnover machine.

On/off stats should be forbidden. They have little to none explanatory power because of collinearity issues and people use them like they're drinking water.

[Mr Waternoose]

Has been for the past month or so IMO

Embiid has an undeniable impact upon the game but he's a turnover machine at present

Fun fact: the Sixers top rated 5 man unit for the past month is run by Simmons and doesnt include Joel

Way overstated

Sixers Turnover percentage

with Embiid on floor 16.1
with Embiid off floor 18.4

Sixers turn the ball over significantly less when Embiid is on the floor

Very likely not because of Embiid though - he averages 6 turnovers per 100 possessions, which is extremely high by any standard and the highest on the team. In fact, in the entire league, the only player with a higher number of turnover per possession is Westbrook, one of the most ball-dominant players in the history of the game. Even if Embiid was contributing to lower the 76ers aggregate turnover rate (due to guys like Amir Johnson, McConnell or Saric turning over the ball even more without him making plays, forcing them to create more or whatever), he'd still be a turnover machine.

On/off stats should be forbidden. They have little to none explanatory power because of collinearity issues and people use them like they're drinking water.

The stat you just cited should be banned. turnovers per possession? Who cares. Obviously a player with less usage will have less turnovers per possession. Turnover percentage while not perfect would at least be more applicable. I dont have the list of everybody but on quick glance Embiid is 15.9 vs. Simmons at 19.2 and TJ McConnell at 22. And Embiid Usage rate is basically the same as Westbrook. 33.7 vs 34.4