What is your personal big board right now?

[thamadkant]

Yeah, Porter's talent certainly makes him intriguing even for the Suns. But I believe there are some overlaps between him and Booker in the way they like to operate – even though from different positions, obviously. But you still don't have someone who can create reliably, or someone who can get into the lane with ease, or anchor your defense. They might make it work but I'm not sure I really like the risk-reward here in the top 5.

Bridges can guard 1-3, and fits next to any on-ball creator offensively. I'm not completely sold on Jackson as a starter yet. If he becomes a good starter, I believe it will be by virtue of his playmaking skills which must be leveraged more (on top of good defense). In that case, Mikal fits well next to Booker (who has been tried out as a PG as we all know) and Jackson. If you need a PG AND Jackson still becomes a good starter based on other virtues then at worst Bridges projects to be a 25+ MPG 6th man type who fits next to all backcourt players on both ends. There are worse scenarios than this when looking at the 5th guy on your big board.

Re: Carter. Yeah, I do like him as a long-term NBA player but more towards the lower end of the lottery. Looks like a souped up version of Kyle O'Quinn (who, however, plays with an edge which makes him more valuable in the NBA) – that's a nice player, perhaps a starter especially if he can hit open 3's consistently or at least a good big off the bench. But I don't expect him to be anything special either.

Regarding JJJr, what are your thoughts on his rebounding?

I'm not concerned. He's long, aggressive and should end up being a pretty strong player. Not the greatest hands but such a player should still end up being a good team rebounder if he continues to work on box-outs, positioning and that kind of fundamental stuff.

His low rebounding numbers are by and large a product of how Michigan State plays – all players are drilled to crash the glass, a couple of above average positional rebounders play next to JJJ, and he literally never played at the 5 iirc due to the plethora of big bodies on that MSU team. Add to this his perimeter-oriented offensive game and, even more importantly, his aggressive rim protection (that leads to many blocks but less rebounding opportunities) and I'm not at all worried.

I must add, however, that I look at him as a 4 who can rotate over to play the 5 when teams size down during the game. Ergo I don't compare his rebounding to that of NBA Centers but rather NBA 4's which obviously lowers the expectations in this regard.

Yup agreed with the assessment about MSU's rebounding strategy. JJJ was not the designated rebounder, the team was clearly instructed to rebound from all position, JJJ was also roaming around up top and perimeter usually... due him covering the defensive zones, which is a sign of high defensive awareness...

To me JJJ is perfect for what the Suns need if he lives up to his potential, but he is so young I feel that it will take 3-4 years before he becomes that player and Suns need results SOON

[eminence]

Some changes for sure, feel almost ready to expand to a 5th tier. Thinking I'll leave off making the effort to scout internationals other than Doncic (guys like Robinson/Simmons as well).

[eminence]

Update, not making the effort to look into internationals other than Doncic (US guys like Robinson/Melton/Simmons/Porter Jr left off as well). Will slowly add more guys to this list, starting with the guys normally slotted in the top half of the lottery.

Firstly a way to keep score to myself. Cutting out the extreme outcomes for a player, but trying to put down my opinions on each players range.

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

Rank. Player: 20% Percentile Outcome - 80% Percentile Outcome
1. Luka Doncic: 5 - 9
2. Jaren Jackson Jr: 4 - 9
3. Trae Young: 3 - 8
4. Mikal Bridges: 4 - 7
5. Wendell Carter Jr: 3 - 7
6. Mohamed Bamba: 1 - 8
7. Marvin Bagley III: 3 - 6
8. DeAndre Ayton: 1 - 6

Rank only includes players currently listed.

[CptCrunch]

Update, not making the effort to look into internationals other than Doncic (US guys like Robinson/Melton/Simmons/Porter Jr left off as well). Will slowly add more guys to this list, starting with the guys normally slotted in the top half of the lottery.

Firstly a way to keep score to myself. Cutting out the extreme outcomes for a player, but trying to put down my opinions on each players range.

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

Rank. Player: 20% Percentile Outcome - 80% Percentile Outcome
1. Luka Doncic: 5 - 9
2. Jaren Jackson Jr: 4 - 9
3. Trae Young: 3 - 8
4. Mikal Bridges: 4 - 7
5. Wendell Carter Jr: 3 - 7
6. Mohamed Bamba: 1 - 8
7. Marvin Bagley III: 3 - 6
8. DeAndre Ayton: 1 - 6

Rank only includes players currently listed.

I like this scheme, gonna steal it for my big board.

Tier 1

1. Luka Doncic – 6-10

Tier 2

2. Jaren Jackson Jr – 4-9
3. Marvin Bagley III – 6-9

Tier 3

4. Mikal Bridges – 4-8
5. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander – 4-7
6. DeAndre Ayton – 4-7

Tier 4
7. Mohamed Bamba – 2-8
8. Zhaire Smith – 2-7
9. Trae Young – 2-8
10. Wendell Carter Jr - 4-7

[The-Power]

Update, not making the effort to look into internationals other than Doncic (US guys like Robinson/Melton/Simmons/Porter Jr left off as well). Will slowly add more guys to this list, starting with the guys normally slotted in the top half of the lottery.

Firstly a way to keep score to myself. Cutting out the extreme outcomes for a player, but trying to put down my opinions on each players range.

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

Rank. Player: 20% Percentile Outcome - 80% Percentile Outcome
1. Luka Doncic: 5 - 9
2. Jaren Jackson Jr: 4 - 9
3. Trae Young: 3 - 8
4. Mikal Bridges: 4 - 7
5. Wendell Carter Jr: 3 - 7
6. Mohamed Bamba: 1 - 8
7. Marvin Bagley III: 3 - 6
8. DeAndre Ayton: 1 - 6

Rank only includes players currently listed.

I like your approach here. Going by that, I'd have the following list for now:

Luka Doncic: 6 - 9
Jaren Jackson: 5 - 8
Michael Porter: 4 - 8
Mikal Bridges: 5 - 7
DeAndre Ayton: 3 - 6
Trae Young: 2 - 8

Note that with Porter I assume health clearance when the draft happens. Him and Bridges are then basically a coin flip, but I'm not super confindent in my evaluation of Porter when it comes to his ability to play the 3 and defend in space. Bagley would be somewhere between 3 and 5 or 6 with a little less positional flexibility/more exposable flaws than Ayton. But I understand if someone is higher on his ceiling. Bamba ranges from from 1 to 6, or 7 at the absolute best but that's closer to his maximum ceiling imo. Wendell Carter would be between 2 and 5 or 6 for me. Young scores higher than Ayton if we take the average but the lower floor makes this pick more risky (I actually thought about putting a 1 next to his name, but that might be a little too harsh) and I also believe there's not so much in-between 2 and 8 – simply put, he either becomes great with the way he plays or he'll be clearly limited and perhaps limited to a bench role.

Then there are other players who I haven't mentioned yet but who I'm higher on than draft sites. Aaron Holiday, for example, looks to be a player in the 2-5 range and that might very well be worth a shot pretty early in the draft considering that many players after the top prospects must realistically be ascribed a 1 as the 20% Percentile Outcome and usually don't have higher a 80% Percentile Outcome than 6 or 7 at best (only a couple players each draft reach a higher level, and that's usually by completely outperforming expectations with regard to development).

I have to think about the numbers a bit more, though. Things can easily change a little bit once we're getting closer to the draft and I have scouted the players a bit more. Also, I think it bears mentioning that I treated the categories in the way I would rank the players. Players who I don't have pegged as All-Stars might very well become actual All-Stars due to the nature of the selection process which focuses on different aspects than I do. Take DeRozan, for example. He's a multiple-time All-Star but on your scale I'd barely rank him as a good starter – maybe even one tier lower.

[BlueSan]

1. Marvin Bagley
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Luka Dončič
4. Mikal Bridges
5. Kevin Knox
6. Jaren Jackson Jr.
7. Mo Bamba
8. Miles Bridges
9. Trae Young
10. Collin Sexton

[homecourtloss]

Update, not making the effort to look into internationals other than Doncic (US guys like Robinson/Melton/Simmons/Porter Jr left off as well). Will slowly add more guys to this list, starting with the guys normally slotted in the top half of the lottery.

Firstly a way to keep score to myself. Cutting out the extreme outcomes for a player, but trying to put down my opinions on each players range.

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

Rank. Player: 20% Percentile Outcome - 80% Percentile Outcome
1. Luka Doncic: 5 - 9
2. Jaren Jackson Jr: 4 - 9
3. Trae Young: 3 - 8
4. Mikal Bridges: 4 - 7
5. Wendell Carter Jr: 3 - 7
6. Mohamed Bamba: 1 - 8
7. Marvin Bagley III: 3 - 6
8. DeAndre Ayton: 1 - 6

Rank only includes players currently listed.

This is nice—all draft projections everywhere should follow this model. Copyright this ****, @eminence.

[BlueSan]

Fine here it is heh

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

1. Marvin Bagley (4 - 8)
2. Deandre Ayton (3 - 8)
3. Luka Dončič (3 - 7)
4. Mikal Bridges (3 - 8)
5. Kevin Knox (2 - 8)
6. Jaren Jackson Jr. (3 - 8)
7. Mo Bamba (3 - 8)
8. Miles Bridges(3 - 8)
9. Trae Young (2 - 5)
10. Collin Sexton(2 - 6)

[doordoor123]

Fine here it is heh

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

1. Marvin Bagley (4 - 8)
2. Deandre Ayton (3 - 8)
3. Luka Dončič (3 - 7)
4. Mikal Bridges (3 - 8)
5. Kevin Knox (2 - 8)
6. Jaren Jackson Jr. (3 - 8)
7. Mo Bamba (3 - 8)
8. Miles Bridges(3 - 8)
9. Trae Young (2 - 5)
10. Collin Sexton(2 - 6)

I don’t agree with you, but I appreciate your out-of-the-box thinking in terms of how you ranked players.

[Duke4life831]

Fine here it is heh

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

1. Marvin Bagley (4 - 8)
2. Deandre Ayton (3 - 8)
3. Luka Dončič (3 - 7)
4. Mikal Bridges (3 - 8)
5. Kevin Knox (2 - 8)
6. Jaren Jackson Jr. (3 - 8)
7. Mo Bamba (3 - 8)
8. Miles Bridges(3 - 8)
9. Trae Young (2 - 5)
10. Collin Sexton(2 - 6)

You dont think anyone has at least All NBA potential from this class?

[Duke4life831]

My college big board to end the season (I know its not over but only Mikal is left and I feel like Ive seen all I need to from him)

1. Bagley
2. Ayton
3. Bamba
4. MPJ
5. Mikal
6. JJJ
7. Carter

/*
* I lose a lot of excitement for this draft after this group
*/

8. Miles Bridges
9. Robert Williams
10. Sexton

[BlueSan]

Ha thats why I didnt use this on my first list, well hard to say. Was anyone seeing Curry as MVP? You get me what I am saying? Anyone out of those 10 could potentially be a 10 but is it likely? Not really I think, so in that list dont take it as a CANT be, but more about I think they wont be. Marvin is the guy I personally think is the closest to a 9 or 10 guy but like I discussed in a Luka Dončič thread now days the game is run more by ballhandlers, instigators, as they see majority of the ball. So you can still have great centers and amazing players at other positions, it is just less likely and they need to be something really special, for idk New Orleans to run the ball through Anthony Davis and allow him to be what he is today. We can also see what has happened to Kevin Love ever since he left the Wolves, he has a new role in this role it is hard to again become the MVP candidate. If you are the instigator, the guy who has the ball and makes the offense then of course that is easier

[BlueSan]

Fine here it is heh

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

1. Marvin Bagley (4 - 8)
2. Deandre Ayton (3 - 8)
3. Luka Dončič (3 - 7)
4. Mikal Bridges (3 - 8)
5. Kevin Knox (2 - 8)
6. Jaren Jackson Jr. (3 - 8)
7. Mo Bamba (3 - 8)
8. Miles Bridges(3 - 8)
9. Trae Young (2 - 5)
10. Collin Sexton(2 - 6)

I don’t agree with you, but I appreciate your out-of-the-box thinking in terms of how you ranked players.

Yeah no problem, thats why we are here on these forums, to discuss our different views and see the views of others which may be different, I always believed that as long as someone can give you a valid opinion on something you should respect it even if different and always be opened to change your own if you think the arguement the other person is making is good enough.

[76ciology]

My last and final mock draft. Players in the tier are in order.

Tier 1 - very likely to be a star
Doncic (star lead guard which i value highly)


Tier 2 - high upside low risk
Jaren Jackson (15BPM and his deflection rate)
Bamba (freakish length and 11BPM)

Tier 3 - Safe and yet projected to be a good impact player but not much upside
Mikal Bridges

Tier 4 - high upside but higher risk than tier 2
Porter (health risk; could be top 3 if health issue is resolved)
Ayton (ridiculously LOW deflection rate)
Bagley (low shooting, assists and low deflection rate)
Trae Young (more style than substance)

Tier 5 - low risk but not so high upside
Miles Bridges
Wendell Carter

[Stillwater]

All subject to change with
workouts and combine numbers etc:
Tier 1A perenial all-star/ Franchise cornerstone Ayton , Doncic.
1B Franchise potential Jackson, Porter.
1C eventual all star high level starter Bagley,Bamba, Robinson.
2A High level Starter w/ all star potential Young, Williams, Carter, Sexton,Mikal Bridges.
2B potential high level starters Miles Bridges, Gilgeous-Alexander, Zhaire Smith, Jacob Evans, K Thomas, Troy Brown,Knox,Anfernee Simons.
2C starter potential Lonnie Walker, Josh Okogie, Wagner, Musa, Trent,Duval, P.J. Washington,Dean Wade,Marquise Reed,Brandon McCoy,D'Marcus Simonds,Bruce Brown,Bates-Diop,Metu,Tillie,Edwards and Melton.
3A Rotation players Battle, Melvin Frazier,Aaron Holiday,Admiral Schofield, Caleb Martin, Kyle Washington,Hamidou Diallo,Milton,Alexander-Walker,Devonte Graham,Grayson Allen,Silva,Jevon Carter,Vanderbilt,Milton, Kurucs,Gabriel,Vick, and probably a few more...Jalen Hudson ,Jerome Robinson,Huchinson,Udoka Azubuike, Charles Matthews etc
3B potential rotation level: Maltisse Thabulle, Alize Johnson, Casslus Winston,Jalen Brunson,Mykhailiuk etc
A lot of prospects still under the radar or just coming into view as having higher potential at the end of the season or in the tournament than originally projected
examples: Jontay Porter, Tony Carr, Malik Newman, Ponds, Gary Clark, Hunter, Sneed, DiVincenzo, Jeremy Harris,Jairus Lyles, Donte Ingram,Jon Elmore,Shannon Bogues,Jaylen Adams, J.P. Macura,Quentin Goodin,Mike Daum,Ike Obiagu,Christ Koumadje,Donta Hall,Jordan Caroline,Donte Grantham,Mustapha Heron,Kyron Cartwright,Duncan Robinson, Khadeen Carrington,Desi Rodriguez,Jarrell Brantley, Jared Terrell,Oshae Brissett ... of course half of them will never see the NBA besides G-League.

[KobesScarf]

I treated the categories in the way I would rank the players. Players who I don't have pegged as All-Stars might very well become actual All-Stars due to the nature of the selection process which focuses on different aspects than I do. Take DeRozan, for example. He's a multiple-time All-Star but on your scale I'd barely rank him as a good starter – maybe even one tier lower.

da ****?

So the best player on a 60+ win team is maybe not a starter?

[The-Power]

I treated the categories in the way I would rank the players. Players who I don't have pegged as All-Stars might very well become actual All-Stars due to the nature of the selection process which focuses on different aspects than I do. Take DeRozan, for example. He's a multiple-time All-Star but on your scale I'd barely rank him as a good starter – maybe even one tier lower.

da ****?

So the best player on a 60+ win team is maybe not a starter?

Okay Starter/Great Bench is not an insult, it's a top 100 player in the league. I'm not sure that DeRozan is the best player on the Raptors – I'd say no –, but most importantly the Raptors are this great because of their amazing depth and the way the play on both ends of the floor. The Raptors have been consistently worse with DeRozan on the floor than without in the past years, so I don't see how considering DeRozan merely an okay/good starter is anything to be surprised about. His ability to score comes in handy in certain situations and has value, but its overall impact on the game is clearly overrated imo and DeMar doesn't offer you much else while clearly being a net negative on defense. DeRozan is a player for whom I'd say that the better the team he is on, the less impact he has because his strengths are diminished while his weaknesses weigh more.

[KobesScarf]

I treated the categories in the way I would rank the players. Players who I don't have pegged as All-Stars might very well become actual All-Stars due to the nature of the selection process which focuses on different aspects than I do. Take DeRozan, for example. He's a multiple-time All-Star but on your scale I'd barely rank him as a good starter – maybe even one tier lower.

da ****?

So the best player on a 60+ win team is maybe not a starter?

Okay Starter/Great Bench is not an insult, it's a top 100 player in the league. I'm not sure that DeRozan is the best player on the Raptors – I'd say no –, but most importantly the Raptors are this great because of their amazing depth and the way the play on both ends of the floor. The Raptors have been consistently worse with DeRozan on the floor than without in the past years, so I don't see how considering DeRozan merely an okay/good starter is anything to be surprised about. His ability to score comes in handy in certain situations and has value, but its overall impact on the game is clearly overrated imo and DeMar doesn't offer you much else while clearly being a net negative on defense. DeRozan is a player for whom I'd say that the better the team he is on, the less impact he has because his strengths are diminished while his weaknesses weigh more.

He's clearly the Raptors best player and his impact has been greater this year leading the Raptors to 60+ wins than it ever was.

Did you start watching basketball in 2014? The Warriors did not invent basketball.

[Humblerbee]

Doncic
Ayton
JJJ
Young
Bagley
Mikal
MPJ
Bamba
Carter

[The-Power]

He's clearly the Raptors best player and his impact has been greater this year leading the Raptors to 60+ wins than it ever was.

He's not been clearly their best player and there's plenty of evidence that his impact isn't great at all. Agree to disagree.

Did you start watching basketball in 2014? The Warriors did not invent basketball.

Tell me, why are you here again? To be insolent to people who disagree with you while not adding anything of value to this board? But if you want to play that game: did you stop trying to understand basketball past 1980 when focusing primarily on basic boxscores without context was still acceptable? The Warriors have literally nothing to do with this by the way, but nice try.

edit: but this thread isn't about DeRozan. DeRozan was an example to illustrate my approach to eminence's interesting way to rank prospects. Nothing more and nothing less. If you want to have a discussion about the goodness and impact of DeRozan you might want to consider opening a thread on the PC board. Here it is clearly OT and I won't further comment on DeRozan in this thread.