Luka Doncic Part III

[WalterBenjamin]

Porter jr would be up there, but back injuries are very scary and not sure if I'd take the gamble unless I was sitting at pick 6 or after. I've made my point about Doncic many times, just don't see how a wing who's not that fast, quick, and shoots 31% (his career high mind you) from a shorter 3 point line will dominate the league.

Just a question. Where do you think Doncic compares to other wings in terms of dribbling the ball then. I think he is top 3-4 in the NBA. Not many wings can dribble the ball in tight spaces like he can.

[burek3]

Yeah those seasons he took 1 or 2 threes a game, that's not a stat. When he actually took 3's, he missed them like no top tier wing ever should, especially when you consider the Euroleague 3 is that of the WNBA three. I get it, you're from Slovenia and donic is too, it makes sense why you'd support him, but have some objectivity in his serious flaws that are crucial for a wing to be successful in this league (lack of quick first step, lack of 3 point shot, no D whatsoever)

Twist it whatever you want, your number of 31% career high is BS and you know it.

Okay, take out career, he shot 31% this year from the WNBA line! What is he going to do in the big leagues against superior defenders? Go 25%?

You really refuse to read, don't you? He's 43/117 = 36.8 % from 3pt in Euroleague without the full court shots.

[BlueSan]

You missed the last page I guess where it tells you his shooting is actually more like 36%

[BlueSan]

Anyway today someone asked me to tell him about Dončič and why people regard him so highly and this is my take on Luka.

Heh where should I start I ll be as objective as I possibly can (every opinion is in the end subjective) But as someone who played basketball quite at a high level and with some really good players (both brothers Dragič) I think at least I have some knowledge and experience to back it up.

1)
First thing you need to consider with Doncic is his experience. No one in the entire NCAA not even the seniors do not have close to the experience playing basketball at the highest level, to what Doncic has.
- Doncic is playing in Spanish national league
- Doncic is playing in second best league in the world Euro League
- Doncic has played with his national team all the way to the finals and has won it and he did it by not being the fringe guy, he did it being one of the two main players together with Goran Dragič
- Doncic has already played Euro league final four with Real Madrid and he is about to play the playoffs (top) 8 teams in Europe ( Euroleague tournament) again.
- Doncic played so far a combined 157 games in ACB and Euroleague and he also played 9 games + friendlies with the Slovenian national team to win the chanpionship. He is also guaranteed basically to play at the minmum 4 more games this year (2 in regular Euroleague season and at least 2 in the playoffs) which brings you to a total of 170 games of a really high level basketball, playing with seniors, best European players as well as some good foreign players amonst them some former NBA guys)

So to wrap it up for my point 1 the guy has huge huge experience coming to the NBA and the guy turned 19 literally just now This is massive, massive for what all he has gone through from learning things along the way, to experiencing those really clutch moments and extreme high tension moments to being exposed to the media at the same time and having big expectations put on his shoulders for at least 2 years now. And to wrap all of this. He is the only guy if you compare it to his draft opposition who has really experienced "a long season". The guy has been playing similar amount of games in a year that an NBA playoff guy is playing. No one from Collegue basketball did that, especially the rookies since they just played those 30-40 games...while Luka was actually playing from January to December non stop and the break he should have had...instead he was playing in the European Championship with his national team resulting with well over 80 games in a single year. (so NBA amount of games)

2.)
Thing is his response to the above, to all the expectations, pressure, or to put it bluntly, what are his stats?
Well to give you his stats also in better perspective, I will split them in three years, to also show his progress as a player and again a reminder, he was considered a basketball prodigy from the start but with years going up he started getting more minutes and bigger responsibilities, while learning the ropes, improving as a player and growing as a man.

1st season 2015/2016 (Already playing in Spanish league as well as Euroleague) at the age of 16 - 17
- Minutes spent on court AVERAGE (13,3 mins)
- Rebounds per game (2,7)
- Assists per game (2,0)
- Points per game (4,5)

2nd season 2016/2017 - (Age 17-18)
- Minutes spent on court AVERAGE (19,9 mins)
- Rebounds per game (4,4)
- Assists per game (3,7)
- Points per game (7,8)

Before we go into his final current season lets do one important additional check. Luka Dončič after his second season is looking like a really nice prospect and he is picked to play for his national team durring summer in the European Championship. Slovenia is far from a favorite, in fact its like in current NCAA you would compare it to Loyola Chichago being in top 4 right now. So an outsider.
So before going into his final season stats, lets look at how well Luka Doncic did statistically in the European championship with his national team

EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP 2017 (Age - 18)
- Minutes spent on court AVERAGE (29,1 mins)
- Rebounds per game (8,1) -> 4th overall in the tournament among all players and he is a small forward/guard
- Assists per game (4,9) -> he was not a primary ball handler for national team Dragič and Prepelič were
- Points per game (14,3)

So Slovenia with a big help of Luka won the championship and this 18 year old kid well stats are above and show how well he did against the likes of Porzingis, Paul Gasol, Ricky Rubio and other NBA guys

Now his final 2017/2018 season STATS - (Age 18-19)
- Minutes spent on court AVERAGE (24,6 mins)
- Rebounds per game (5,3)
- Assists per game (4,5)
- Points per game (15,4)

Good to note here is also that he was an over 20 points shooter at the start of the season and he is still 3rd overall scorer in the entire Euroleague with 16,8 points per game. (This is not a high scoring league - keep in mind as i further on write my comment)

And before i stop the statistic part of my post, Luka Dončič currently has the highest index rating of all players in the Euro League with 22,72 PIR

So when you compare these stats to the stats of the highest rated NCAA players they are more or less there but with the difference that Luka is putting them in less minutes and against better opposition. I will show you what I mean quickly.:

1. Marvin Bagley
- Average playing time = 33,9 minutes (thats almost 10 minutes more then Luka Dončič aka 38% more playing time)
- 21 points
2. Deandre Ayton
- Average playing time = 33,5 minutes
- 20,1 points
3. Miles Bridges (The person I was writing this for, is extremely high on Bridges heh)
Average playing time = 31,4 minutes
- 17,1 points

So this leads me to a third arguement

3)
Position - play
When you are looking at a player and his potential, you keep on hearing, the athleticism aspect and how that gives you a high ceiling.
I will instead of that rather say it like this. Each player has a position and a role to play on a basketball court and how well he will succeed and how big of a monster he will be depends, not just on his skills but on what kind of role he can play on a team, how much he ll be seeing a basketball, what kind of mismatches he is going to create and how that will transfer to his defense.
Now let us take a quick look at what I am talking about:

Nowdays NBA is most dominated by the playmakers/small forwards, players who are seeing most of the ball, who are the instigators and create plays, dictate tempo and also in todays NBA shoot a lot of 3 pointers.
So when you are looking at top guys, you are mainly talking Lebron, Harden, Westbrook, Lillard, Curry, Giannis etc..
Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, those are the exceptions and when you bring a really good player like for instance Kevin Love near the instigator it usually shows by his stats dropping a bit and the instigator if a good one owershadowing the big man. Possession of the ball and what % of plays are ran through you is extremely important naturally
So basically yes you can have an Anthony Davis...however most of the bigs in todays NBA are required to make a block, pass the ball, stretch the D by visiting the 3 pointer area...heck they are required to hit 3 pointers and what not. So you also see Deandre Ayton and Marvin doing some of those stuff...its needed in todays game.

So back to Luka. Luka is the instigator, a guy with an increadible feeling for the game, a great overview and ability to dictate the tempo, think Curry in that sense...people are mostly looking at the other aspects of great point guards, small forwards now days and that is ISO play (isolation play - 1 on 1) and you could say Doncic is not great at that yep... he doesnt need to be, it is important to again note European basketball is different there is a lot less space around the basker than in NBA a lot less and thus a lot less opportunity for an ISO play 1 on 1 flashy stuff... and so smart players, good coaches dont like them... they create mismatches with playing a lot of post ups and pick and rolls. And then players get clean looks, mismatches and easier chance to score.

So my point? Well my point is...while Luka Doncic certainly isnt a great ISO player and people may think he lacks athleticism to do it...especially in NBA where it can be done, is done and is kind of required... well he has two other things because of which I think thats not really the case and that also Doncic can be a good if not great ISO player.
- 1 is his size...
with his size he is going to create a lot of mismatches by default. 6.8 and he can play a guard or a 2, while certainly there are guys in that range playing those positions in NBA mostly that is a mismatch and Doncic can use his size and strength to his adventage.

- The second and even more important thing is his basketball IQ and his set of skills connected to that.
This guy is extremely smart, this guy has an elite step back, we are almost talking Harden level and when he starts training with NBA coaches and practicing those situations those things can lead to him creating a lot of 1 on 1 plays for himself just off of his IQ step backs and other tricks he has up his sleeves...ah not to mention he is a great pick and roll player and NBA is using pick and roll more and more.

4)
Last but not least is Luka Doncic and his contribution to the team.
The guy can obviously rebound, the guy can assist, the guy can score, the guy can play defense and he can do it off the bat as soon as he comes to NBA, especially because of his experience and roles he was used to in his career and coaches, GMs like that. Like that they are throwing money to the guy who will add something for sure and is the least likely to be a bust I think.

So instead of looking at those NCAA flashy moves, dunks, athleticism (hey I watch a lot of NCAA watched yesterdays Duke vs Kansas as also Villanova's game they are great, but it is totally different basketball, different baskteball and different level) so instead of that, think about that this guy is playing in a "non flashy league" think about that Porzingis, Šarič, Paul Gasol and others have came from the same league... and that some of them are now flashy and more and more European draft picks are proving themselves...

BUT none of them was on a level even close to Luka Dončič in Europe before coming to NBA and that tells you a lot

[WalterBenjamin]

Do I overrate how he dribbles the ball?! I don't see many guys his height that dribble the ball as good as he does in the NBA. Top 3-4 ballhandler at his size.

[daoneandonly]

Porter jr would be up there, but back injuries are very scary and not sure if I'd take the gamble unless I was sitting at pick 6 or after. I've made my point about Doncic many times, just don't see how a wing who's not that fast, quick, and shoots 31% (his career high mind you) from a shorter 3 point line will dominate the league.

Just a question. Where do you think Doncic compares to other wings in terms of dribbling the ball then. I think he is top 3-4 in the NBA. Not many wings can dribble the ball in tight spaces like he can.

Compared to who? You have to note the guys he's dribbling against and trying to outmaneuver can't spell NBA, so that's a massive factor. i've seen plenty of him to admit he has a nice handle and damn good vision, but his lack of foot speed and first step will not do him any favors in the real basketball league. Add to that he shoots a dreadful percentage from a 3 point line the WNBA uses, and I don't see a top 5 pick or all NBA guy, i see a role player.

[daoneandonly]

Twist it whatever you want, your number of 31% career high is BS and you know it.

Okay, take out career, he shot 31% this year from the WNBA line! What is he going to do in the big leagues against superior defenders? Go 25%?

You really refuse to read, don't you? He's 43/117 = 36.8 % from 3pt in Euroleague without the full court shots.

And you don't realize the Euroleague has the same 3 point line as the american women's basketball league, and he can't even crack a good percentage there. So what do the NBA defenders have to fear with him? he won't blow past them because he's not fast enough, even though eh is a child brimming with youth, and he does not have a respectable enough shot, so he'll never touch superstardom.

[UcanUwill]

Okay, take out career, he shot 31% this year from the WNBA line! What is he going to do in the big leagues against superior defenders? Go 25%?

You really refuse to read, don't you? He's 43/117 = 36.8 % from 3pt in Euroleague without the full court shots.

And you don't realize the Euroleague has the same 3 point line as the american women's basketball league, and he can't even crack a good percentage there. So what do the NBA defenders have to fear with him? he won't blow past them because he's not fast enough, even though eh is a child brimming with youth, and he does not have a respectable enough shot, so he'll never touch superstardom.

Most of his shots are off the dribble step back 3, so considering, his percentages arent that bad at all. He very rarely shoots open or out of catch and shoot.

[daoneandonly]

You really refuse to read, don't you? He's 43/117 = 36.8 % from 3pt in Euroleague without the full court shots.

And you don't realize the Euroleague has the same 3 point line as the american women's basketball league, and he can't even crack a good percentage there. So what do the NBA defenders have to fear with him? he won't blow past them because he's not fast enough, even though eh is a child brimming with youth, and he does not have a respectable enough shot, so he'll never touch superstardom.

Most of his shots are off the dribble step back 3, so considering, his percentages arent that bad at all. He very rarely shoots open or out of catch and shoot.

So then would it be fair to say his shot selection is questionable then? Of course many many young guys have that issue, but one of the attributes ppl always rave about with Doncic is his maturity and understanding of the game.

And even so, it's not even an NBA 3 point distance, its WNBA

[UcanUwill]

And you don't realize the Euroleague has the same 3 point line as the american women's basketball league, and he can't even crack a good percentage there. So what do the NBA defenders have to fear with him? he won't blow past them because he's not fast enough, even though eh is a child brimming with youth, and he does not have a respectable enough shot, so he'll never touch superstardom.

Most of his shots are off the dribble step back 3, so considering, his percentages arent that bad at all. He very rarely shoots open or out of catch and shoot.

So then would it be fair to say his shot selection is questionable then? Of course many many young guys have that issue, but one of the attributes ppl always rave about with Doncic is his maturity and understanding of the game.

And even so, it's not even an NBA 3 point distance, its WNBA

He is very efficient overall, 61.9 TS%, so I wouldn't say his shot selection is bad at all, its just that he is very high usage perimeter scorer. Star perimeter ball handler will shoot a lot of these shots. Like most Harden's 3s are the same, its just that at this point of his career, Harden is far more reliable shooter.

[daoneandonly]

Most of his shots are off the dribble step back 3, so considering, his percentages arent that bad at all. He very rarely shoots open or out of catch and shoot.

So then would it be fair to say his shot selection is questionable then? Of course many many young guys have that issue, but one of the attributes ppl always rave about with Doncic is his maturity and understanding of the game.

And even so, it's not even an NBA 3 point distance, its WNBA

He is very efficient overall, 61.9 TS%, so I wouldn't say his shot selection is bad at all, its just that he is very high usage perimeter scorer. Star perimeter ball handler will shoot a lot of these shots. Like most Harden's 3s are the same, its just that at this point of his career, Harden is far more reliable shooter.

Mind if I ask where would you rate him compared to the other top guys in the upcoming draft. if you had to rank 1-7, how would it go between Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Bamba, Bridges, JJJ, and Porter (assume he's cleared to play in this scenario, but still question marks on his health)

[HeadtopChunes]

"Luka has played 25 games in EL and has has had 19 attempt for three(he has made 1 vs Barcelona) at the end of periods. So if you look at his 3PT statistic (44/136 = 32.4%) minus the last second atempts(1/19) you get 43/117 = 36.8 % , and that IMO is a more accurate showing of his percentages this year"

How accurate is this statement?

[UcanUwill]

So then would it be fair to say his shot selection is questionable then? Of course many many young guys have that issue, but one of the attributes ppl always rave about with Doncic is his maturity and understanding of the game.

And even so, it's not even an NBA 3 point distance, its WNBA

He is very efficient overall, 61.9 TS%, so I wouldn't say his shot selection is bad at all, its just that he is very high usage perimeter scorer. Star perimeter ball handler will shoot a lot of these shots. Like most Harden's 3s are the same, its just that at this point of his career, Harden is far more reliable shooter.

Mind if I ask where would you rate him compared to the other top guys in the upcoming draft. if you had to rank 1-7, how would it go between Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Bamba, Bridges, JJJ, and Porter (assume he's cleared to play in this scenario, but still question marks on his health)

I really can't answer that, I dont watch NCAA games at all, I just watch highlights. But I have big question marks about most tier 1 prospects, Doncic is not the only one that has serious question marks. Doncic, Ayton and Young has highest ceilings, but I think all of them could disappoint bigtime. Personally, I see Ayton as a lock disappointment, people are buying his superstar cool aid too much. If lets say my team has high pick, and passes on these 3 and picks JJJ or Bamba, I wouldn't be mad.

[UcanUwill]

"Luka has played 25 games in EL and has has had 19 attempt for three(he has made 1 vs Barcelona) at the end of periods. So if you look at his 3PT statistic (44/136 = 32.4%) minus the last second atempts(1/19) you get 43/117 = 36.8 % , and that IMO is a more accurate showing of his percentages this year"

How accurate is this statement?

I think its pretty accurate, because I feel like he attempts full court shot every time I watch them.

[daoneandonly]

"Luka has played 25 games in EL and has has had 19 attempt for three(he has made 1 vs Barcelona) at the end of periods. So if you look at his 3PT statistic (44/136 = 32.4%) minus the last second atempts(1/19) you get 43/117 = 36.8 % , and that IMO is a more accurate showing of his percentages this year"

How accurate is this statement?

I think its pretty accurate, because I feel like he attempts full court shot every time I watch them.

What are the circumstances though? I'd have to believe there's a bit more that can be said. Is he heaving up shots because he's not fast enough to just get to the paint in the last seconds? Is he not looking for teammates in these last moments and just chucking up a prayerful shot? I'd do more digging into that than just go with the black & white of the only reason his shooting is so low is because of those type of shots.

And while 36% is a lot more respectable don't get me wrong, again, the 3 point line is closer and the defenders are a lot weaker/inferior in Euroleague as opposed to what he'll deal with at the next level, so those are factors as well.

[juanc]

"Luka has played 25 games in EL and has has had 19 attempt for three(he has made 1 vs Barcelona) at the end of periods. So if you look at his 3PT statistic (44/136 = 32.4%) minus the last second atempts(1/19) you get 43/117 = 36.8 % , and that IMO is a more accurate showing of his percentages this year"

How accurate is this statement?

As I mentioned before, I went through every EL game(play-by-play) and I managed to find 19 of those shots. I have never said that those were full/half court shots, those were just last second shots(last second of every quarter). If some of you don't belive me then I suggest that you make the same research. It's not that hard since euroleague has play-by-play for every quater, so you just need to open all Real games and scroll to the bottom of every quater

[HeadtopChunes]

"Luka has played 25 games in EL and has has had 19 attempt for three(he has made 1 vs Barcelona) at the end of periods. So if you look at his 3PT statistic (44/136 = 32.4%) minus the last second atempts(1/19) you get 43/117 = 36.8 % , and that IMO is a more accurate showing of his percentages this year"

How accurate is this statement?

As I mentioned before, I went through every EL game(play-by-play) and I managed to find 19 of those shots. I have never said that those were full/half court shots, those were just last second shots(last second of every quater). If some of you don't belive me then I suggest that you make the same research. It's not that hard since euroleague has play-by-play for every quater, so you just need to open all Real games and scroll to the bottom of every quater

Oh this was you? lol I found this on reddit just verifiying if it was true. It kinda changes my opinion on Doncic

[UcanUwill]

How accurate is this statement?

I think its pretty accurate, because I feel like he attempts full court shot every time I watch them.

What are the circumstances though? I'd have to believe there's a bit more that can be said. Is he heaving up shots because he's not fast enough to just get to the paint in the last seconds? Is he not looking for teammates in these last moments and just chucking up a prayerful shot? I'd do more digging into that than just go with the black & white of the only reason his shooting is so low is because of those type of shots.

And while 36% is a lot more respectable don't get me wrong, again, the 3 point line is closer and the defenders are a lot weaker/inferior in Euroleague as opposed to what he'll deal with at the next level, so those are factors as well.

Its prayer shots where he gets the ball with one second left. I think you overstating the difference of 3 point line, its like 1 feet difference, and Doncic shoots a lot of deep 3s.

But I will say that 3 point shot from Europe to NBA doesn't translate very smoothly. Some players became far more reliable 3 point shooters in the NBA, and deeper 3 wasnt problem for them at all, like Saric, Bjelica or Ingles. But on the other hand we had elite Euroleague shooters who are just average in the NBA, like Nikola Mirotic. I think Doncic has potential to shoot much better in the NBA almost instantly, if he has good teammates that can set him up, instead of him setting up everything, but first year in the NBA is almost always a transitional process for all the shooters. I am actually kinda surprised Milos Teodosic shoots 37% from 3 in his rookie year, he is great shooter, but I would have guessed his first season would be worse.

[BlueSan]

How accurate is this statement?

I think its pretty accurate, because I feel like he attempts full court shot every time I watch them.

What are the circumstances though? I'd have to believe there's a bit more that can be said. Is he heaving up shots because he's not fast enough to just get to the paint in the last seconds? Is he not looking for teammates in these last moments and just chucking up a prayerful shot? I'd do more digging into that than just go with the black & white of the only reason his shooting is so low is because of those type of shots.

And while 36% is a lot more respectable don't get me wrong, again, the 3 point line is closer and the defenders are a lot weaker/inferior in Euroleague as opposed to what he'll deal with at the next level, so those are factors as well.

I dont know I wrote you half of page of analysis above, read it if you are interested in Doncic at all

[Alatan]

Do I overrate how he dribbles the ball?! I don't see many guys his height that dribble the ball as good as he does in the NBA. Top 3-4 ballhandler at his size.

The more important question is is he a good ballhandler for his desired position of primary ballhandler and i would say no. He is average. Maybe even below average if you account for his speed with the ball in half court.