'17-'18 POY discussion

[Doctor MJ]

Does AD have a case as being a better player than Harden? I honestly feel AD is reaching his prime and its debatable that he is already better than Harden

Nope. Not even a slight chance IMO.

Sorry to be so pithy but I am really starting to understand why Rockets fans get so defensive about James being overlooked.

I see a real pull in people to put guys like Davis or Giannis ahead of perimeter guys. To me this makes sense from a perspective of the big guys seeming to have the ability to dominate on both sides of the court...but the reality is that it really seems at this point that these nearly-entirely-offense perimeter guys are still the ones having the most success as the fulcrum around which elite teams are being built.

None of this is to say the AD/Giannises of the world can't surpass them, but they have more learning to do in order to do so.

(Here's where I'll say how interesting it is that Embiid seems to "get" impact a lot more organically than the other bigs in the game. Embiid too has a lot to learn, but he seems to have some of that Shaq-attack in him where his mere presence is so disruptive impact seems a foregone conclusion.)

[dhsilv2]

Curry with no chance to play in the first round. That's pretty rough.

[SideshowBob]

Read on Twitter

[eminence]

Round 1 could be extremely interesting with Curry out depending on who they draw.

[PaulieWal]

Round 1 could be extremely interesting with Curry out depending on who they draw.

Not wishing for injuries and want to see Curry come back but if he's gonna be out in round 1, man I hope GSW draws Utah or OKC. I want them knocked out in round 1 lol.

Otherwise if Curry is gonna come back healthy and GSW is gonna survive, give me a fully healthy Rockets vs GSW WCF but at that point GSW will be the fav IMO to win it all. Even without Curry GSW is a fav to win at least round 1.

[Senior]

Yeah Russillo said it really well last week: It’s always over before you think it is.

The guy that really upsets me is Durant. As the new guy I expected him to revitalize them and supercharge the team when the other guys can’t muster it and yet he’s been by far their biggest coaster. Even worse than Draymond, who is a player that relies almost entirely on motor and hustle.

Yeah. There were some teams like the older Celtics/Lakers/Rockets teams that knew their window was small but some such as Shaq/Kobe Lakers and big 3 heat that were projected to win like 5-6 titles. Then real life happened. Same with the Warriors - after last year everyone thought we might as well take a nap until 2020 when those guys get old. Problem is, those multiple years of playoff runs tack on basketball years/mileage at a much higher rate than a typical season. The difference between 60 and 80 vs 80 and 100 is much bigger than it appears to be, and all those teams I mentioned had significant and crippling injuries throughout their RS and then in the playoffs. GS isn't any different with all 4 of their main guys out. Most of those teams had playoff series that went the distance the year before they fell apart, so we'll see if that plays out with their likely WCF opponent in Houston.

Durant...I don't like playing armchair psychologist, but it's possible he saw how easily they wiped everyone last year and settled himself into coast-mode knowing the Warriors could just snooze through the RS. Not really an indefensible thing to do - and he himself has been making deep playoff runs (albeit with 1 year off). So as long as he can turn that on-off switch to ON, it shouldn't be damning.

To build on this...

Do you think this makes what LeBron has done more impressive?
Do you think LeBron knows this?
Is there an advantage for LeBron changing casts every 3-4 years since 07?

1. Could go both ways, Lebron's insane durability and management of himself during the RS is definitely a credit to him, but he basically reset the timer by changing teams. Wade was breaking down in year 3, their older vets like Allen and Battier were finished, and Bosh was eventually forced out so I'm not sure Miami would have enough to make it back even against a relatively weak conference. No one in the East was even close to Lebron either.
2. Yes. Too smart not to.
3. Absolutely. Left Wade and old Miami just as the ship was about to sink, and even now with the huge roster turnover/Kyrie gone/many guys injured, he might leave again. At this point no one knows what he will do and the clock is ticking.

[Pillendreher]

Round 1 could be extremely interesting with Curry out depending on who they draw.

Not wishing for injuries and want to see Curry come back but if he's gonna be out in round 1, man I hope GSW draws Utah or OKC. I want them knocked out in round 1 lol.

Otherwise if Curry is gonna come back healthy and GSW is gonna survive, give me a fully healthy Rockets vs GSW WCF but at that point GSW will be the fav IMO to win it all. Even without Curry GSW is a fav to win at least round 1.

I'm ready. If they were to knock them out, Westbrook would probably wear a Durant jersey in games the rest of the way.

[ardee]

If Houston wins out, they'll finish at 68-14 after having been 30-12 at one point. That's as good as 2013 Miami going from 29-14 to 66-16.

They were also 34-13 at one point, winning out would have them ending at 34-1.

[K_chile22]

If Houston wins out, they'll finish at 68-14 after having been 30-12 at one point. That's as good as 2013 Miami going from 29-14 to 66-16.

They were also 34-13 at one point, winning out would have them ending at 34-1.

I don't think they will, have sat CP3 out two extra games here recently, resting Harden and Clint tonight, they know they have home court in the bag and are going to sit a lot of guys. Would be cool tho

[dhsilv2]

Haven't been looking at the stat much but Kyle Lowry is now 5th in RPM after looking off all year. I swear is there anyone who gets less respect without being a defense only guy than him?

[dhsilv2]

If Houston wins out, they'll finish at 68-14 after having been 30-12 at one point. That's as good as 2013 Miami going from 29-14 to 66-16.

They were also 34-13 at one point, winning out would have them ending at 34-1.

That level of ending didn't work so well for the 12 spurs though. Not sure it's worth chasing.

[Dr Positivity]

Haven't been looking at the stat much but Kyle Lowry is now 5th in RPM after looking off all year. I swear is there anyone who gets less respect without being a defense only guy than him?

It's been frustrating compared to years past to see him go entire games without driving to the basket, but you can have a lot of impact with 41% 3pt on 7.6 attempts/game, defense, rebounding and passing. Still most valuable Raptor

[bondom34]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

I'm not totally sure but it may be related to this and the idea of a bunch of middle of the pack teams. A lot of bizarre bad losses by playoff level teams seem to be happening to me. Memphis over Denver then Minny. Atlanta over Minny, Golden State's C squad currently hanging with Indiana, it feels like a nightly occurrence. Oh and Boston without 3 starters beating OKC and Portland within days.

[Bucketz_McGee]

LeBron stop playing from Jan to trade deadline. His poor performance during that time is unprecedented for an elite player like that.

He doesn't deserve the MVP this year just because he can fill a stat sheet. MVP stands for Most Valuable Player not most talented. Harden has been exactly that for the Rockets.

"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfy or reassuring" C.S

[Missing Rings]

LeBron stop playing from Jan to trade deadline. His poor performance during that time is unprecedented for an elite player like that.

He doesn't deserve the MVP this year just because he can fill a stat sheet. MVP stands for Most Valuable Player not most talented. Harden has been exactly that for the Rockets.

I have not seen a single person claim LeBron should be an MVP candidate since his sub-par stretch.

Also, why do you keep posting that quote?

[Pillendreher]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

I'm not totally sure but it may be related to this and the idea of a bunch of middle of the pack teams. A lot of bizarre bad losses by playoff level teams seem to be happening to me. Memphis over Denver then Minny. Atlanta over Minny, Golden State's C squad currently hanging with Indiana, it feels like a nightly occurrence. Oh and Boston without 3 starters beating OKC and Portland within days.

I think 3 point shooting and the variance that comes with it is certainly influencing this. So far on the season, there have been over 300 games with 15 or more 3s by a team in a game. From 2003/04 to 2013/14, the total number is 335.

We've experienced it first hand what it means when bad teams and players suddenly get hot from against us. Remeber that Hawks game where they had like 3 guys with almost career nights from 3? If that happens, everything is possible.

[Bucketz_McGee]

LeBron stop playing from Jan to trade deadline. His poor performance during that time is unprecedented for an elite player like that.

He doesn't deserve the MVP this year just because he can fill a stat sheet. MVP stands for Most Valuable Player not most talented. Harden has been exactly that for the Rockets.

I have not seen a single person claim LeBron should be an MVP candidate since his sub-par stretch.

Also, why do you keep posting that quote?

This whole thread is befuddled that he isn't in the conversation for MVP. I wouldn't have said it if people actually agreed.

"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfy or reassuring" C.S

[bondom34]

LeBron stop playing from Jan to trade deadline. His poor performance during that time is unprecedented for an elite player like that.

He doesn't deserve the MVP this year just because he can fill a stat sheet. MVP stands for Most Valuable Player not most talented. Harden has been exactly that for the Rockets.

I have not seen a single person claim LeBron should be an MVP candidate since his sub-par stretch.

Also, why do you keep posting that quote?

This whole thread is befuddled that he isn't in the conversation for MVP. I wouldn't have said it if people actually agreed.

"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfy or reassuring" C.S

This isn't an MVP thread. And most people didn't even have him top 5 a few weeks ago

[ardee]

Now that Curry is missing the rest of the RS, I think my top 5 is going to be:

Harden
LeBron
Davis
Lillard
Giannis/Westbrook?

Curry was great when he played but 31 games missed is waaay too much for me.

[trex_8063]

Curry with no chance to play in the first round. That's pretty rough.

That could make things interesting [potentially, anyway]. If they get matched up against a fully healthy Jazz team, for instance......I'd not be surprised if a healthy Jazz team gives a Curry-less Warriors team a run for their money. Could easily see that series going 7 games, at least.