The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[HurricaneKid]

I agree the current streak is not their biggest accomplishment, although Detroit needed to win to make the playoffs so no tank there.
And Minnesota was not tanking, nor Denver.
Philly are 17-12 vs the West.
Also, Philly beat Miami without Embiid in February.

Detroit has been eliminated for ages. They didn't have to win to make the playoffs. They had to win last night, win ALL THEIR REMAINING GAMES, AND have Milwaukee lose to BKLN AND Orl AND NYK AND Philly.

That's why I said "Detroit needed to win to make the playoffs".
Detroit were playing to win, because they knew they would be mathematically eliminated if they lost.
And if Detroit was in tanking mode, why did they win their last 5 games?
This is not "a run against tanking teams" when Denver, Minnesota and Detroit are in the streak.

If the three best wins you have over the course of >5 weeks are two non-playoff teams (outside the top half of the league) and a team without its best player playing on the road on a B2B, you don't get to brag. You just don't.

Yes, Detroit wasn't actively trying to lose the game. That doesn't make it an impressive win. If an 2-8 NFL team loses their 11th game to get removed from playoff possibilities it doesn't mean its a good win. It means a bad team lost AGAIN.

[Winglish]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

[dkj5061]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

Joel Embiid also did

[CoreyGallagher]

Yes, Detroit wasn't actively trying to lose the game. That doesn't make it an impressive win. If an 2-8 NFL team loses their 11th game to get removed from playoff possibilities it doesn't mean its a good win. It means a bad team lost AGAIN.

That's an awful analogy.

Detroit would be comparable to a team with a record of 7-8 or so, that needed to win and a lot to go their way in the final week/week and half.

They played Drummond 38 minutes last night, implies to me that they thought of it as a must win game. Then considering they won 5 in a row, 7 of their last 8, and they were at home against us without 2 of our best players and on a back end of a back-to-back. You cite a lot of those reasons to belittle victories, not sure why they can't be cited conversely...

[HurricaneKid]

Yes, Detroit wasn't actively trying to lose the game. That doesn't make it an impressive win. If an 2-8 NFL team loses their 11th game to get removed from playoff possibilities it doesn't mean its a good win. It means a bad team lost AGAIN.

That's an awful analogy.

Detroit would be comparable to a team with a record of 7-8 or so, that needed to win and a lot to go their way in the final week/week and half.

What do you think the odds are that the Bucks lose all these games:

Nets, @Knicks, Magic, @Phi

No BTBs.

Bucks are -425 TONIGHT. I assume they would be higher than that against NYK and Orl (as they are both trying to get lottery balls at this point), but lets just say they are all -425 and they only have a 25% chance to beat Philly, who may not even be playing for anything.

That means had Detroit not only beaten the 76ers, but also won the final 4 games (including Tor), they would have had a 0.2% chance. Or 1/500 chance at making the playoffs (needing Milw to lose out). That is WITH the assumption that they were going to win out (which is obviously a foolish assumption as well) And frankly, that was using really generous odds. It might be closer to 1/90 and gone to < 1/2,000 by the time you include the odds they needed 5 straight (with games against Phi and Tor left) as well.

You seriously believe that is equivalent to an NFL team winning 1 single game?

You actually believe that Detroit felt like they were fighting for their playoff lives? I'm not suggesting they were throwing the game. I just assume everyone understood a long time ago they weren't going to the playoffs. Desperate teams don't go down 16 in the first 20 min of ballgames.

People need to understand math better. A 2-8 NFL team has a better chance of making the playoffs than the Pistons did right before tip against the 76ers.

[bebopdeluxe]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

1200, 600 and 600

Big O
Big Ben

[RB34]

First Ben Simmons couldn’t win without Embiid, now he can only beat trash teams without Embiid.

What’s next he can’t sweep the Warriors without Embiid?

[XDevilBoiX]

First Ben Simmons couldn’t win without Embiid, now he can only beat trash teams without Embiid.

What’s next he can’t sweep the Warriors without Embiid?

Not only beat but blow them out

[phifans]

Ben Simmons leads the team in +/- during this winning streak. The 76ers are outscoring the opponent by an average of 17.6 points per game with him in, or +27.6 points per 100 possessions (-4.9 w/o him).

The streak consists of 10 wins against lotto teams and one win against the TWolves at home when the TWolves were on a B2B without their best player.

Lets not get carried away with this.

FTR, I think he is the landslide winner of the RoY. I just don't think a run against tanking teams is what got him there.

Blah Blah Blah ...

Ben and Biid lead this team to 48-30 and tied for the fifth best records in the whole league right now.

Is that impressed you now ?

Or you may need some time to figure out a better excuse ?

[nbhadja]

Mitchell at 30% is a joke. Simmons should be the unanimous choice for ROY.

[CoreyGallagher]

You seriously believe that is equivalent to an NFL team winning 1 single game?

It's a tough analogy because of the lack of similarities, which is also why it wasn't a good analogy to begin with. I think the equivalency that best demonstrates the situation as well as what kind of team the Pistons are (which is what I was attempting to do, and why the analogy bothered me) in this context is putting them in the midst of games. Pistons needing to win a game they're losing significantly in at the time as well as winning another, while needing the Bucks to lose a game that they're significantly leading in at the time as well as losing another. Can adjust accordingly for probabilities, but comparing beating the Pistons and knocking them out to an NFL team beating a 2-8 team and knocking them out just seems like another attempt to belittle.

You actually believe that Detroit felt like they were fighting for their playoff lives? I'm not suggesting they were throwing the game. I just assume everyone understood a long time ago they weren't going to the playoffs. Desperate teams don't go down 16 in the first 20 min of ballgames.

I doubt they were fighting for their playoff lives, however I'm not going to assume their motivation to win, they clearly seemed to want to (citing their rotation) and had advantages to.

[Black Mage]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

He ranks 18th out of ALL nba players in shot attempts per game. He shoots 3 fewer shots a game than Harden (2nd) and 4 fewer shots than Westbrook (1st).

Yeah, I'd call him a high volume shooter.

[nurseryc]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

He ranks 18th out of ALL nba players in shot attempts per game. He shoots 3 fewer shots a game than Harden (2nd) and 4 fewer shots than Westbrook (1st).

Yeah, I'd call him a high volume shooter.

This

[michaelm]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

He ranks 18th out of ALL nba players in shot attempts per game. He shoots 3 fewer shots a game than Harden (2nd) and 4 fewer shots than Westbrook (1st).

Yeah, I'd call him a high volume shooter.

This

Maybe he will be a high volume shooter in the Kobe vein, and win 5 titles with the Jazz.

[nurseryc]

Ben Simmons low-balled by fellow rookies in 2017-18 Rookie Survey - a lot of fellow rookies now eating humble pie....,

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/basketball/nba/ben-simmons-lowballed-by-fellow-rookies-in-201718-rookie-survey/news-story/e471faa77ed55a7fecdff11257425399

[michaelm]

Ben Simmons low-balled by fellow rookies in 2017-18 Rookie Survey

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/basketball/nba/ben-simmons-lowballed-by-fellow-rookies-in-201718-rookie-survey/news-story/e471faa77ed55a7fecdff11257425399

The good thing is that I strongly suspect Ben gives absolutely no **** about what other rookies might think.

[EmperorLocky]

Ben Simmons low-balled by fellow rookies in 2017-18 Rookie Survey

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/basketball/nba/ben-simmons-lowballed-by-fellow-rookies-in-201718-rookie-survey/news-story/e471faa77ed55a7fecdff11257425399

He does talk a bit of trash out there so may not be a favourite of theirs on a personal level. Also they might have just been having a laugh if Dennis Smith jr leads the vote.

[nurseryc]

Ben Simmons low-balled by fellow rookies in 2017-18 Rookie Survey

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/basketball/nba/ben-simmons-lowballed-by-fellow-rookies-in-201718-rookie-survey/news-story/e471faa77ed55a7fecdff11257425399

He does talk a bit of trash out there so may not be a favourite of theirs on a personal level. Also they might have just been having a laugh if Dennis Smith jr leads the vote.

This was voted on before the start of the season. I get the feeling a lot of rookies were either severely underrating him or were ridiculously jealous of Ben’s natural gifts

[EmperorLocky]

Ben Simmons low-balled by fellow rookies in 2017-18 Rookie Survey

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/basketball/nba/ben-simmons-lowballed-by-fellow-rookies-in-201718-rookie-survey/news-story/e471faa77ed55a7fecdff11257425399

He does talk a bit of trash out there so may not be a favourite of theirs on a personal level. Also they might have just been having a laugh if Dennis Smith jr leads the vote.

This was voted on before the start of the season. I get the feeling a lot of rookies were either severely underrating him or were ridiculously jealous of Ben’s natural gifts

Makes sense then. Well in that case they did well with 25% vote for Dennis Smith jr. He has still had a pretty good rookie year.

[Snotbubbles]

2 rookies in NBA history have posted +29% usage rate at over 50% efg.

Michael Jordan
Donovan Mitchell

Just 2. Donovan and Michael.

(High volume shooter, they say. )

Joel Embiid also did

So did 42 other people. Though, there should be some minimum qualifiers. Like minutes played. Embiid did it but only played 786 minutes. Trevor Ruffin did it in 319 minutes. Billy Ray Bates did it in 235 minutes. Priest Lauderdale did it in 180 minutes. Mitchell and Jordan were over 2000.