Where can we find our "Alpha"?

[Skybox]

Rockstar

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I'm in...the fact that he was successfully quadruple-teamed for the second half of the season may be what gets him to us.

[VFX]

For the record, the trade proposals for CJ and/or Kemba that I made INCLUDED the 2019 first. I understand that Evan and/or Vuc don't get you much on their own.

Which still isn’t that viable considering the trade that has to be offered. Why would either of those players resign to play in a significantly worse situation than they are currently?

Not only would Orlando still be bad, but they would be like the Nets, missing out on a high draft pick regardless.

The only real trade that makes sense, outside of the draft, to find an alpha would be trading AG (not an alpha) for picks and promising players. Isaac can fill in at PF and we can draft Doncic/Porter/Bridges. Then again, that isn’t a popular opinion either and also risky.

[Def Swami]

Usually your alpha players are your best players on the team. The problem with Orlando is they haven't had a clear "best player" since D12 left.

Among the 5 lottery picks that the Magic have had in the last 5 seasons, only 1 turned into an "alpha" and it was for another team (miss you, Victor) and he was the only one that had a clear alpha mentality coming out of college. He learned a lot from Westbrook, but I don't think he obtained that mentality from Westbrook. It was always innate for him. I don't believe you can teach an alpha how to be an alpha. Some guys are just built like that. It's partly why some of us preferred DSJ over Jonathan Isaac last draft (not saying Isaac was the wrong pick). It's why I shy away from players like Jaren Jackson Jr this year.

Quite frankly, the Magic have not taken advantage of the draft that a rebuilding team should. If you're going to commit to a rebuild, then you have to hit in the draft at some point. It doesn't guarantee long term success, but you can't even expect to escape bottom 7 finishes until you draft an elite player or one with that kind of potential. You can look through the rosters of all the lottery teams 1 thru 8 and they all lack a focal star talent (Memphis has missed Gasol and Conley for most of the season).

You don't have to be perfect and there are going to be misses. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor were clear misses, but those failed picks are so negligible in the grand scheme once you have Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. You're more likely to forgive that Elfrid Payton debacle if the Magic had the chance to get Porzingis in 2015.

Even teams that never drafted high in the lottery at least hit at some point, which is why they've turned their teams around before Orlando has. Give Utah credit for drafting foundational players like Rudy Gobert in the late 1st round and Donovan Mitchell in the late lottery. Milwaukee with Giannis. Portland with CJ. Denver with Jokic, Murray, and Harris.

Some of that is skill and a lot of that is luck. The latter part is the scarier thought of the two.

There have been so many franchises that have been bad for so many years. You would think that with all the draft picks that the Kings have had in the last 12 seasons!!!! that they would have just fallen ass backwards into some luck. Cleveland at least benefited from this during the post-Lebron seasons with 3 inexplicable #1 picks. The Wolves haven't made the playoffs in the last 14 seasons!!!! It took them nearly 11 years to for luck to fall into their hands and things to just go right for once. The Wolves and Cavs clearly aren't model front offices, but they benefitted from timing and luck.

Sometimes you get lucky in other ways. Toronto was prepared for a full-on tank for Wiggins in 2013-2014 when they traded Rudy Gay. No one in their front office ever thought that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan would explode like they have. Everyone thought that Indiana would be among the tankers this year, and then Oladipo turned himself into an all-NBA guard. Same with how Isaiah Thomas became that for Boston. A lot of that is simply luck and timing.

I bring these examples up just to reflect on how whimsical NBA success is. You expect a certain level of competence from your front office. But, even if those things occur, a lot of the time it's just luck that makes you good again, which is something no one can control. The Magic could be in this for long haul until they land their "alpha." And even then, it doesn't really guarantee long term success, but it gives them the best chance. It's not out of the question for this rebuild to extend to 10 to 15 seasons. It's a grim reality, but one that they're on pace for until they land their "alpha."

Drafting is definitely the most realistic way for Orlando to land a star player. There are examples of doing it via trade, but it's less common. Almost no star free agents are going to sign to play with a bad team. Again, you could get lucky. Maybe take a risk on Zach Lavine or Marcus Smart and they turn into star players in a different situation, but it's unlikely. Maybe trade for Kemba; I actually really like this idea. He'd at least establish some hierarchy on the team. Or draft a player with an alpha game for once - Deandre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, or Trae Young.

[npiper17]

Usually your alpha players are your best players on the team. The problem with Orlando is they haven't had a clear "best player" since D12 left.

Among the 5 lottery picks that the Magic have had in the last 5 seasons, only 1 turned into an "alpha" and it was for another team (miss you, Victor) and he was the only one that had a clear alpha mentality coming out of college. He learned a lot from Westbrook, but I don't think he obtained that mentality from Westbrook. It was always innate for him. I don't believe you can teach an alpha how to be an alpha. Some guys are just built like that. It's partly why some of us preferred DSJ over Jonathan Isaac last draft (not saying Isaac was the wrong pick). It's why I shy away from players like Jaren Jackson Jr this year.

Quite frankly, the Magic have not taken advantage of the draft that a rebuilding team should. If you're going to commit to a rebuild, then you have to hit in the draft at some point. It doesn't guarantee long term success, but you can't even expect to escape bottom 7 finishes until you draft an elite player or one with that kind of potential. You can look through the rosters of all the lottery teams 1 thru 8 and they all lack a focal star talent (Memphis has missed Gasol and Conley for most of the season).

You don't have to be perfect and there are going to be misses. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor were clear misses, but those failed picks are so negligible in the grand scheme once you have Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. You're more likely to forgive that Elfrid Payton debacle if the Magic had the chance to get Porzingis in 2015.

Even teams that never drafted high in the lottery at least hit at some point, which is why they've turned their teams around before Orlando has. Give Utah credit for drafting foundational players like Rudy Gobert in the late 1st round and Donovan Mitchell in the late lottery. Milwaukee with Giannis. Portland with CJ. Denver with Jokic, Murray, and Harris.

Some of that is skill and a lot of that is luck. The latter part is the scarier thought of the two.

There have been so many franchises that have been bad for so many years. You would think that with all the draft picks that the Kings have had in the last 12 seasons!!!! that they would have just fallen ass backwards into some luck. Cleveland at least benefited from this during the post-Lebron seasons with 3 inexplicable #1 picks. The Wolves haven't made the playoffs in the last 14 seasons!!!! It took them nearly 11 years to for luck to fall into their hands and things to just go right for once. The Wolves and Cavs clearly aren't model front offices, but they benefitted from timing and luck.

Sometimes you get lucky in other ways. Toronto was prepared for a full-on tank for Wiggins in 2013-2014 when they traded Rudy Gay. No one in their front office ever thought that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan would explode like they have. Everyone thought that Indiana would be among the tankers this year, and then Oladipo turned himself into an all-NBA guard. Same with how Isaiah Thomas became that for Boston. A lot of that is simply luck and timing.

I bring these examples up just to reflect on how whimsical NBA success is. You expect a certain level of competence from your front office. But, even if those things occur, a lot of the time it's just luck that makes you good again, which is something no one can control. The Magic could be in this for long haul until they land their "alpha." And even then, it doesn't really guarantee long term success, but it gives them the best chance. It's not out of the question for this rebuild to extend to 10 to 15 seasons. It's a grim reality, but one that they're on pace for until they land their "alpha."

Drafting is definitely the most realistic way for Orlando to land a star player. There are examples of doing it via trade, but it's less common. Almost no star free agents are going to sign to play with a bad team. Again, you could get lucky. Maybe take a risk on Zach Lavine or Marcus Smart and they turn into star players in a different situation, but it's unlikely. Maybe trade for Kemba; I actually really like this idea. He'd at least establish some hierarchy on the team. Or draft a player with an alpha game for once - Deandre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, or Trae Young.

Excellent post. Thank you for highlighting just how important a role luck plays in NBA success.

[Skybox]

Usually your alpha players are your best players on the team. The problem with Orlando is they haven't had a clear "best player" since D12 left.

Among the 5 lottery picks that the Magic have had in the last 5 seasons, only 1 turned into an "alpha" and it was for another team (miss you, Victor) and he was the only one that had a clear alpha mentality coming out of college. He learned a lot from Westbrook, but I don't think he obtained that mentality from Westbrook. It was always innate for him. I don't believe you can teach an alpha how to be an alpha. Some guys are just built like that. It's partly why some of us preferred DSJ over Jonathan Isaac last draft (not saying Isaac was the wrong pick). It's why I shy away from players like Jaren Jackson Jr this year.

Quite frankly, the Magic have not taken advantage of the draft that a rebuilding team should. If you're going to commit to a rebuild, then you have to hit in the draft at some point. It doesn't guarantee long term success, but you can't even expect to escape bottom 7 finishes until you draft an elite player or one with that kind of potential. You can look through the rosters of all the lottery teams 1 thru 8 and they all lack a focal star talent (Memphis has missed Gasol and Conley for most of the season).

You don't have to be perfect and there are going to be misses. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor were clear misses, but those failed picks are so negligible in the grand scheme once you have Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. You're more likely to forgive that Elfrid Payton debacle if the Magic had the chance to get Porzingis in 2015.

Even teams that never drafted high in the lottery at least hit at some point, which is why they've turned their teams around before Orlando has. Give Utah credit for drafting foundational players like Rudy Gobert in the late 1st round and Donovan Mitchell in the late lottery. Milwaukee with Giannis. Portland with CJ. Denver with Jokic, Murray, and Harris.

Some of that is skill and a lot of that is luck. The latter part is the scarier thought of the two.

There have been so many franchises that have been bad for so many years. You would think that with all the draft picks that the Kings have had in the last 12 seasons!!!! that they would have just fallen ass backwards into some luck. Cleveland at least benefited from this during the post-Lebron seasons with 3 inexplicable #1 picks. The Wolves haven't made the playoffs in the last 14 seasons!!!! It took them nearly 11 years to for luck to fall into their hands and things to just go right for once. The Wolves and Cavs clearly aren't model front offices, but they benefitted from timing and luck.

Sometimes you get lucky in other ways. Toronto was prepared for a full-on tank for Wiggins in 2013-2014 when they traded Rudy Gay. No one in their front office ever thought that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan would explode like they have. Everyone thought that Indiana would be among the tankers this year, and then Oladipo turned himself into an all-NBA guard. Same with how Isaiah Thomas became that for Boston. A lot of that is simply luck and timing.

I bring these examples up just to reflect on how whimsical NBA success is. You expect a certain level of competence from your front office. But, even if those things occur, a lot of the time it's just luck that makes you good again, which is something no one can control. The Magic could be in this for long haul until they land their "alpha." And even then, it doesn't really guarantee long term success, but it gives them the best chance. It's not out of the question for this rebuild to extend to 10 to 15 seasons. It's a grim reality, but one that they're on pace for until they land their "alpha."

Drafting is definitely the most realistic way for Orlando to land a star player. There are examples of doing it via trade, but it's less common. Almost no star free agents are going to sign to play with a bad team. Again, you could get lucky. Maybe take a risk on Zach Lavine or Marcus Smart and they turn into star players in a different situation, but it's unlikely. Maybe trade for Kemba; I actually really like this idea. He'd at least establish some hierarchy on the team. Or draft a player with an alpha game for once - Deandre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, or Trae Young.

Great summary...and then, you have the lottery balls to factor in to all the plans

[Max Power]

In a dream scenario, we some way, some how acquire Kawhi Leonard. I think Fournier and Vuc aren’t enough to get him but they at least open the talks. Vuc and Fournier would fit the Spurs like a glove and would insert some youth in there for a small-ish rebuild. They’d still be a playoff team and wouldn’t have the drama from this year.

Now a lineup of Ayton (In case we get #1), Leonard, Gordon, Simmons is a pretty good start, and I’d do everything I could to draft Jalen Brunson. I think he’s got a Jameer Nelson level career in his future. You’ll keep Issac on the bench learning a year while winning some games finally. I think the Magic are foolish if they don’t at least look at this.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[J the Drafter]

A single good player is not the difference between a lottery team and a playoff team. There are multiple areas of weakness that bring the Magic to their current state: really bad defense (as a result of having no interior defenders and having only a single perimeter one), a dearth or capable offensive players (Fournier, Vucevic and Gordon are the only players one would want to count on for offense—though D.J. Is capable of chipping in—and Vucevic, Fournier and Gordon have all displayed a lack of consistency), and our bench is composed of G Leaguers aside from Ross, Simmons (both out), Biyombo (who has not been good) and Mario (inconsistent). On top of that, our rebounding has been poor (presumably because we’ve played rather small, with Evan at sf and Gordon at pf, though Vuc’s string of bad rebounding games has probably also hurt).

It’s true that a talented scorer/playmaker would significantly improve the offense, but adding a Trae or Doncic is merely one way improving the roster. Taj Gibson, for example, would have gone a long way to improving our defense, and by extension, our record.

To;dr, we’re talking about contending for the playoffs, not a title. There are other things to consider besides superstar scorers.

[Mauro Pedrosa]

How about Zach Lavine?

[Skybox]

How about Zach Lavine?

I thought about him. He's got all of the pieces, but the light behind his eyes looks just a little bit dim...don't know if he's got the killer gene.

[pepe1991]

Lance Stephenson

[Furinkazan]

at the Alfa Romeo dealer

[Furinkazan]

but to be serious only obvious route is the draft but you need to do what it takes to get top 3
we aint doing that
whats left is luck that maybe even at 5-10 pick we will struck gold but we certainly aint doing oursleves any favors by not tanking hard

[drsd]

but to be serious only obvious route is the draft but you need to do what it takes to get top 3
we aint doing that
whats left is luck that maybe even at 5-10 pick we will struck gold but we certainly aint doing oursleves any favors by not tanking hard

The Magic is primed to draft at the 6 slot.


..

[drsd]

Maybe trade for Kemba; I actually really like this idea. He'd at least establish some hierarchy on the team. Or draft a player with an alpha game for once - Deandre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, or Trae Young.

I am settling in to the idea of both of these things. Charlotte is going to have to go full tank, and that means the must trade Walker. I believe the Magic's 2019 and 2021 1st are enough for that. For salary purposes, in releasing Fournier, the Magic could also absorb the salary costs of either Marvin Williams or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (recall the Hornets is not looking for value in this trade, but rather, future assets); I will call it as Williams as the aged vet. Simmons can be thrown in. After drafting Dončić and resigning Hezonja, the Magic becomes:

Walker/Augustin/Mack
Dončić/Ross/Iwundu
Hezonja/Isaac
Gordon/Williams
Vučević/Biyombo/Birch

There would now be a clear alpha on the team, who happens to be the floor general. Frankly I see this as a playoff team next year - with a clear 10-man rotation, AND I really like the assets moving forward.

..

[Furinkazan]

but to be serious only obvious route is the draft but you need to do what it takes to get top 3
we aint doing that
whats left is luck that maybe even at 5-10 pick we will struck gold but we certainly aint doing oursleves any favors by not tanking hard

The Magic is primed to draft at the 6 slot.


..

seems like evry year same sht
we are copying Sacramento Kings

2017 draft 6th pick
2016 8th
2015 6th
2014 8th
2013 7th
2012 5th
2011 7th
2010 5th
2009 4th

always outside top 3 like many of you like
what a template to follow
they did struck gold once with Cousins
but how many players they missed on during that half assed effort of rebuild?

good to know our organisation copy the best

but meh once a decade you may even get a top dog at 5th-8th
so I guess you like those chances

[drsd]

but meh once a decade you may even get a top dog at 5th-8th

Here they are:
2016: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Jamal Murray, Marquese Chriss
2015: Mario Hezonja, Willie Cauley-Stein, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson
2014: Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas
2013: Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
2012: Thomas Robinson, Damian Lillard, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Ross
2011: Jonas Valančiūnas, Jan Veselý, Bismack Biyombo, Brandon Knight
2010: DeMarcus Cousins, Ekpe Udoh, Greg Monroe, Al-Farouq Aminu
2009: Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill
2008: Kevin Love, Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, Joe Alexander

One MVP and three marginal all-stars. So you are correct.

I found it interesting to see how many Magicians are in these draft lines.


..

[Furinkazan]

while the list of the players they missed on in top 3 only

2017 Fultz Ball Tatum (kind of meh they did ok for a position they got though tatum looks like one of the best players of that draft so far)
2016 Simmons Ingram Brown
2015 KAT Russell Okafor Ill throw in Porzgingis too
2014 WIggins Parker Embiid and AG( just for the sake of Magic touch)
2013 Bennet lol Dipo Porter
2012 Davis MKG Beal
2011 Irving Williams Kanter
2010 Wall Turner Favors
2009 Griffin Thabeet Harden

nice pool to make an all star team they missed on because they werent commited to tanking
ofc there is no telling who would they take maybe busts like Thabeet Bennet Okafor and Willams or Kanter
but at the same time It could have been Davis Irving Simmons Beal instead of what they got at 5th to 8th