'17-'18 POY discussion

Post #701 » by **bondom34** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:29 pm

Random but what is up with Harden in the RAPM spreadsheet from Apbr? I'm not totally sure on Houston's lineups but he's behind CP, Gordon and just ahead of Tucker.

Post #702 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:49 pm

bondom34 wrote:Random but what is up with Harden in the RAPM spreadsheet from Apbr? I'm not totally sure on Houston's lineups but he's behind CP, Gordon and just ahead of Tucker.

Not going to claim I truly know, but it's been fascinating that Harden's on/off impact under D'Antoni just hasn't been anything like what Nash's was even last year. He's still my MVP this season, but I'm not yet convinced he belongs in the same tier as Steph Curry, and I"m also not convinced he's a better player than Chris Paul (who, me being crazy, will be #2 on my MVP ballot).

dontcalltimeout · Post #703 » by **dontcalltimeout** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:06 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Random but what is up with Harden in the RAPM spreadsheet from Apbr? I'm not totally sure on Houston's lineups but he's behind CP, Gordon and just ahead of Tucker.

Not going to claim I truly know, but it's been fascinating that Harden's on/off impact under D'Antoni just hasn't been anything like what Nash's was even last year. He's still my MVP this season, but I'm not yet convinced he belongs in the same tier as Steph Curry, and I"m also not convinced he's a better player than Chris Paul (who, me being crazy, will be #2 on my MVP ballot).

I just saw someone tweet about this. Is Harden's gonna be the first MVP recipient that's the second best player on his own team?

Post #704 » by **Doctor MJ** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:12 am

dontcalltimeout wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Random but what is up with Harden in the RAPM spreadsheet from Apbr? I'm not totally sure on Houston's lineups but he's behind CP, Gordon and just ahead of Tucker.

Not going to claim I truly know, but it's been fascinating that Harden's on/off impact under D'Antoni just hasn't been anything like what Nash's was even last year. He's still my MVP this season, but I'm not yet convinced he belongs in the same tier as Steph Curry, and I"m also not convinced he's a better player than Chris Paul (who, me being crazy, will be #2 on my MVP ballot).

I just saw someone tweet about this. Is Harden's gonna be the first MVP recipient that's the second best player on his own team?

With guys like Rose or Iverson, that might also be the case. This might be the only time though where I basically feel like only 2 guys in the entire league deserve it, and they both play on the same team.

Unbiased hater · Post #705 » by **Unbiased hater** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:45 am

Wiggins should be hero of the year, shoot really good whole game , scored clutch free throws and played great defense too in crucial game , best game in his career . Gibson played lockdown defence on Jokic in OT and final moments of regular time .

ShotCreator · Post #706 » by **ShotCreator** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:50 am

bondom34 wrote:Random but what is up with Harden in the RAPM spreadsheet from Apbr? I'm not totally sure on Houston's lineups but he's behind CP, Gordon and just ahead of Tucker.

It's NPI RAPM. I think the lack of PI RAPM for 2017 has made all the NPI stuff the most popular by default but what you are looking at is going to be so correlated to pure on/off it is pointless to even look at it. Even after a full regular season.

If it was PI RAPM then it would be a legit point to make.

Shame Engelmann mysteriously stopped caring enough to make PI RAPM. Very useful information.

Post #707 » by **Doctor MJ** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:40 am

My thoughts as of the moment:

1. James Harden
2. Chris Paul
3. LeBron James
4. Damian Lillard
5. Anthony Davis

Others I thought about: Giannis, Curry, Embiid/Simmons, Butler, Gobert, Oladipo

Kevin Durant is the glaring omission from that list, and I have to admit that his lack of representation there isn't necessarily going to stop him from leapfrogging a bunch of guys quickly. As things stand though I really don't see a Top 5 argument for him at all, and I really doubt I'll have him on my mind in the #1 conversation at post-season's end even if he dominates the finals.

I could very easily see Curry end up at #1 despite his current omission.

LeBron of course, is the other likely contender for the top spot.

Harden/Paul I'm sure seems crazy to most, but to me they've had the two most impressive seasons by a fair margin.

Honestly never thought Lillard would rate so high on a list of mine like this. Good for him.

Embiid/Simmons/Philly are the most exciting thing going on at the moment, but I also don't have a handle on them. We'll see how the playoffs play out.

Cannot tell you how much my respect for Jimmy Butler has grown this year. What a badass.

Gianis of course is someone I considered very seriously, and if you thought of him as being #6 on my list that wouldn't be unreasonable...but at this point his 2013 draftmate is actually considerably more proven as the focus of a highly effective team.

I'm really happy for Oladipo. I don't really buy the Pacers as a team that's scary in the playoffs or in the future unless they get something big added to the mix, but Oladipo figured something important out, and now he's a Hoosier state icon like few others.

I'll give a last shout out to DeRozan & Lowry. I don't think they are Top 5 worthy on this list, and I don't think either is a Top 10 player period, but Toronto doesn't have the success they have this season without those two guys having far better attitudes toward change than most veteran stars of perineal playoff teams.

EDIT: 2 names I didn't discuss, one mentioned, the other I really just wasn't thinking about.

So first, Anthony Davis. Pretty uncontroversial to have him in my top 5.

The second is Russell Westbrook. Everyone knows my ambivalence toward him. I'll just say he should have been on that "guys I thought about" list. I can see arguments for him in the Top 5.

Dr Spaceman · Post #708 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:52 am

Jus when I thought things couldn’t get any better for Philly, Markelle Fultz goes out and has the best game of his career heading into the playoffs. The kid is good.

Post #709 » by **bondom34** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:05 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:Jus when I thought things couldn’t get any better for Philly, Markelle Fultz goes out and has the best game of his career heading into the playoffs. The kid is good.

Are triple doubles good now? Asking for a friend

.

Bad Gatorade · Post #710 » by **Bad Gatorade** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:12 am

ShotCreator wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Random but what is up with Harden in the RAPM spreadsheet from Apbr? I'm not totally sure on Houston's lineups but he's behind CP, Gordon and just ahead of Tucker.

It's NPI RAPM. I think the lack of PI RAPM for 2017 has made all the NPI stuff the most popular by default but what you are looking at is going to be so correlated to pure on/off it is pointless to even look at it. Even after a full regular season.

If it was PI RAPM then it would be a legit point to make.

Shame Engelmann mysteriously stopped caring enough to make PI RAPM. Very useful information.

Yep, I agree with this. Single season RAPM is always going to have a bit more unwanted variance in its results.

It's worth noting that on an offensive beast such as Houston, there's going to be a lot of collinearity. Replacing Harden with Paul doesn't have much of a drop off, because Paul's usage changes from approximately Portland Andre Miller to approximately last year's James Harden once Harden goes to the bench. That's probably why ORAPM seems to underestimate Harden's impact (and seeing just how high Gordon and PJ Tucker are seems to jibe with the collinearity issue).

From memory, Harden led the league in NPI ORAPM in 2014-15, and it's not quite so surprising given all the injuries that Houston faced that year, leaving them offensively troubled outside of Harden. He was a lot more irreplaceable on that roster, ergo, it's more likely to be reflected in his ORAPM.

I agree though - PI RAPM needs to return. Does anybody that frequents APBRmetrics know if Shadow is willing to create a PI/multi-year RAPM? Not just typical PI RAPM, but even RAPM that spans certain eras the same way we've got data on, say, 2006-2011.

Dr Spaceman · Post #711 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:22 am

bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Jus when I thought things couldn’t get any better for Philly, Markelle Fultz goes out and has the best game of his career heading into the playoffs. The kid is good.

Are triple doubles good now? Asking for a friend .

Lol. I actually didn’t even see the line. I think it does make Philly the easy favorites though, now that they have two guys who can trip-dub. Nobody makes numbers rounder than them.

Post #712 » by **bondom34** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:23 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Jus when I thought things couldn’t get any better for Philly, Markelle Fultz goes out and has the best game of his career heading into the playoffs. The kid is good.

Are triple doubles good now? Asking for a friend .

Lol. I actually didn’t even see the line. I think it does make Philly the easy favorites though, now that they have two guys who can trip-dub. Nobody makes numbers rounder than them.

Miami plays them well. I still think they win, but 7. Don't see any upsets in the east.

ardee · Post #713 » by **ardee** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:35 am

It's insane that the 2 best teams post All-Star break after Houston were Utah and Philly. Houston finished 35-5, Utah finished 29-6 and Philly 27-5.

Dr Spaceman · Post #714 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:56 am

ardee wrote:It's insane that the 2 best teams post All-Star break after Houston were Utah and Philly. Houston finished 35-5, Utah finished 29-6 and Philly 27-5.

I am being completely truthful here when I say I could easily see a 2012 Thunder type of run from Philadelphia. This run that they’re on has been without their best player for a significant percentage.

ardee · Post #715 » by **ardee** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:13 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
ardee wrote:It's insane that the 2 best teams post All-Star break after Houston were Utah and Philly. Houston finished 35-5, Utah finished 29-6 and Philly 27-5.

I am being completely truthful here when I say I could easily see a 2012 Thunder type of run from Philadelphia. This run that they’re on has been without their best player for a significant percentage.

Well the issue is if when Embiid comes back is he going to be 100%? I know it's an orbital fracture so doesn't mess with his game physically but I just think coming back in the middle of the Playoffs onto a team that's killing it without him.

Dr Spaceman · Post #716 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:34 am

ardee wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
ardee wrote:It's insane that the 2 best teams post All-Star break after Houston were Utah and Philly. Houston finished 35-5, Utah finished 29-6 and Philly 27-5.

I am being completely truthful here when I say I could easily see a 2012 Thunder type of run from Philadelphia. This run that they’re on has been without their best player for a significant percentage.

Well the issue is if when Embiid comes back is he going to be 100%? I know it's an orbital fracture so doesn't mess with his game physically but I just think coming back in the middle of the Playoffs onto a team that's killing it without him.

Dunno. LeBron has one of the best games of his career with the mask on but Mike Conley was clearly hurt by it back in 2015. Guess we won’t know until we see.

Don’t think they need 100% Embiid to dispatch this Miami team, though.

SideshowBob · Post #717 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:11 pm

I'll start posting data tomorrow night or Saturday.

eminence · Post #718 » by **eminence** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:04 pm

Decent swan song for the Joker, but alas, he's out of the running. Still a ton of guys left.

dontcalltimeout · Post #719 » by **dontcalltimeout** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:12 pm

eminence wrote:Decent swan song for the Joker, but alas, he's out of the running. Still a ton of guys left.

I thought he played really well. He had to force the issue many times in the second half to even keep his team close. He made a lot of passes and plays that should have been buckets but the other Denver players went cold for long stretches. The Nuggets actually won the 46 minutes he played (+7) but lost by six. sigh

eminence · Post #720 » by **eminence** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:20 pm

dontcalltimeout wrote:
eminence wrote:Decent swan song for the Joker, but alas, he's out of the running. Still a ton of guys left.

I thought he played really well. He had to force the issue many times in the second half to even keep his team close. He made a lot of passes and plays that should have been buckets but the other Denver players went cold for long stretches. The Nuggets actually won the 46 minutes he played (+7) but lost by six. sigh

Yeah, decent was an understatement.