WCQF: P1 | (4) OKC Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | Utah wins 4-2

[Pillendreher]

To me this comes down to OKC. If OKC plays smart and at their ceiling Utah can't compete. However we all know OKC is likely not to play smart and at their ceiling so this series can go either way.

That's a reasonable take. If you could summarize the Thunder's season in a couple of words, you'd probably say 'Things have never really come together for them'. They've dominated when they've played defense and actually scored as well. But most of the time, they either scored and couldn't defend, or defended well and couldn't score. The sometimes they don't grab rebounds, sometimes they throw the ball away, then they can't make free throws, then two of their 'Big 4' go like 10/30.

They gotta 'bring it'. Can't just half ass it.

BTW amazed by the scheduling for this series, this is likely going to be the best and most competitive first round series and no ABC games and all games in Utah 10 or later EST, shows it's all about the markets.

I'm good with the scheduling. Rest Melo needs his rest.

[clyde21]

This series is a toss-up for me. I legitimately have no idea who's going to win. But I'll go with the Jazz cuz D-Mitch.

[og15]

OKC in 6. Sucks they dont have roberson though...if they did and refs called an even series I pick OKC in the finals

Even series against whom? Why is there an implication that the refs would be calling an uneven series against OKC, what is this based on?

Probably means against Houston or GS who both tend to get a lot of calls their way. In fairness so does OKC. Stars tend to get the calls especially in the playoffs.

Yea, don't really see why we would conclude that OKC would be doomed to be screwed on calls. Those teams all have players that will put themselves in position to get calls and the also get leeway. Some guys on screens, offensive rebounds, defensively being more hands and aggressive, forcing calls on drives, etc, they all have guys who can get the benefit of the doubt on those kinds of things. Seems like one of those preemptive excuses so at the end one can just say "well, I knew they would lose because, refs".

[lebron stopper]

This series is a toss-up for me. I legitimately have no idea who's going to win. But I'll go with the Jazz cuz D-Mitch.

I think the Thunder will win this series. People here are talking about how the Jazz are better coached and play team ball but Mitchell is by far their best offensive player and he's going to have to score at will against the likes of Paul George if the Jazz hope to win enough games to move to Round 2. If Mitchell can carry the Jazz past this stacked Thunder team, then the Jazz can consider their season a tremendous success.

[flow]

I like Utah but if playoff Paul George shows up:

Playoff Paul was a disaster against the Cavs last year.

[Tigersrule]

Probably the best 1st round matchup

No doubt about it..and probably Wolves vs Rockets, Pelicans vs Blazers.

[Edrees]

Jazz in 6. They are just the much better team, especially of late

[sonictecture]

Home Court Advantage-OKC
Season Series Advantage-OKC
Experience Level Advantage-OKC
Individual Match Up Advantage-OKC

I have a lot of respect for Utah. They are well coached, they have good chemistry, they play to their strengths and they are certainly capable of winning this series. It just seems like this is a case of a team who had a wonderful regular season and ended up with a very tough match up for them in the first round.

[Litany]

There is no doubt this one will be a bloodbath. I would be surprised if it doesn't go to 7 games and shocked if it doesn't reach 6 games.

I think both sides have a legitimate chance and both have reasons why it could go either way.

For OKC, they haven't seemed to really gel and not having Roberson will hurt them and Melo isn't a star anymore, he just isn't. Westbook and George have strong playoff experience. If they can become the best version of themselves I can see them really making the Jazz uncomfortable.

For the Jazz, they don't have a lot of playoff experience in the main rotation guys. Gobert and Ingles have a little, but Mitchell and Rubio and Exum don't have any. Also, concern about playoff performance for Rookie Mitchell is something real. I'm not saying he can't be great, but it's a different game in the playoffs and he is going to have to be able to adjust game to game and to the tighter rotations and playing against the adjustments. This is so obvious, but it's not like reg season where teams just faced another opponent the day before and then have one day to prep for you. Throughout the series that's all they're focused on is gameplanning for the one opponent and it makes strategy and gameplan that much more critical. Luckily the Jazz have Snyder so they may be okay in that dept.

Either way, I think that it's likely going to 7 games and I'm gonna say the way the Jazz have been playing the past 3 months and gelled will overcome the weaknesses the Thunder are facing. Can't wait! Don't love the HUGe breaks in between games, ugh...

[Litany]

Home Court Advantage-OKC
Season Series Advantage-OKC
Experience Level Advantage-OKC
Individual Match Up Advantage-OKC

I have a lot of respect for Utah. They are well coached, they have good chemistry, they play to their strengths and they are certainly capable of winning this series. It just seems like this is a case of a team who had a wonderful regular season and ended up with a very tough match up for them in the first round.

Home court - I don't get as worried about the home court advantage like other seasons. Jazz went on a tear the past 20 or so games on the road, so it doesn't seem to matter as much. Especially not til game 7. I agree with one posters take that it is in a weird way advantageous to them not being the higher seed, sort of like going in as underdogs in the two games and they could easily steal one. BUT, if they don't steal one, as I said earlier, this will likely go to 7.

Season series - This isn't really relevant IMO due to when the Jazz turned their season around and players missing in those season series.

Experience level - I definitely agree here. Jazz don't have much playoff xp at all in their main rotation guys. They will need to be able to pivot better when opponents take things away. Mitchell could struggle badly in the playoffs as a rookie and not having playoff xp. I'm not as worried about Rubio adjusting, but Mitchell, not sure. He's fantastic and doesn't shy away from big moments, so it may not matter, but we just dont' know.

Individual Matchup - I think it is sort of a wash overall given how guys are performing and the floor and ceiling of each. I still think Goberts impact is constantly underrated overall, but he is going to have to be smart about how he plays Adams and doesnt let Adams pick up some easy early fouls.

Wish it was tonight!

[jpengland]

Let me address this real quick:

Playoff experience among those who have played at least 700 minutes this season (overall) and who are not injured:

Thunder: 11 players total, 389 games, 12555 minutes
Jazz: 10 players total, 104 games, 2382 minutes

Let me put it this way: Their starting backcourt combines for 0 minutes of Playoff experience and Carmelo Anthony by himself has played more minutes in the Playoffs than this Utah squad combined. Hell, Patterson+Felton combined are close to the total Jazz minutes.

Melo can have all the playoff experience in the world, but if he's being abused on PnR and clunking fall away deep 2s, it matters jot.

What's with the goalpost moving? I specifically answered regarding the cited 'deep playoff experience' for the Jazz. That's all.

To put the Melo impact into context, hes playing on a team distinctly lacking depth and his .500 TS% and appalling defense is resulting in the Thunder being 3.8 points better off with him being off the court.

Could it be that you're looking at Grant and not at Anthony?

Nope numbers for Anthony taken direct from BR

[John Murdoch]

The Thunder bench is atrocious lets be honest. Yes rotations shorten in the PO but i dont see Russel getting any kind of rest in this series and its only going to get tougher as they advance.

[loveandbeer]

Ugh hate this matchup for us. Jazz have been hot AF since the all-star break. Don’t feel confident at all.

[SocalJazz]

This series is the biggest tossup of the first round. No clue who is winning this one, I'd be shocked if this series ends in less than 6 games. Going to be a match-up of who can shut down each other's offense more effectively.

[Nate505]

Home Court Advantage-OKC
Season Series Advantage-OKC
Experience Level Advantage-OKC
Individual Match Up Advantage-OKC

I have a lot of respect for Utah. They are well coached, they have good chemistry, they play to their strengths and they are certainly capable of winning this series. It just seems like this is a case of a team who had a wonderful regular season and ended up with a very tough match up for them in the first round.

I'm not saying you'll be wrong, but I feel the same was said last year about the Jazz in the playoffs as well.

[DusterBuster]

Jazz in 5

[Pillendreher]

Melo can have all the playoff experience in the world, but if he's being abused on PnR and clunking fall away deep 2s, it matters jot.

What's with the goalpost moving? I specifically answered regarding the cited 'deep playoff experience' for the Jazz. That's all.

To put the Melo impact into context, hes playing on a team distinctly lacking depth and his .500 TS% and appalling defense is resulting in the Thunder being 3.8 points better off with him being off the court.

Could it be that you're looking at Grant and not at Anthony?

Nope numbers for Anthony taken direct from BR

Still don't see -3.8:

[Anti Chalmers]

Okc in 6

[dynamic duo]

westgoat in 4.

[Perishable517]

Dang, this is going to be a great series. Best of the first round, I think. I say Jazz in 7 but really, I could see it go to the Thunder in 7.