WCQF: P1 | (4) OKC Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | Utah wins 4-2

[Catchall]

The Jazz *can* win this series, but their margin of error is small. I believe in the Jazz's defense, especially with the time they'll have to prepare, but the question will be the Jazz's ability to score. The Jazz need the Steve Nash version of Rubio to step up and shoot well enough. Ingles and Crowder are going to need to shoot well. Someone else is going to need to step up. Maybe it's Royce O'Neale, Dante Exum and Jonas Jerebko doing it by committee.

If PG13 and Westbrook drill 28-ft 3-pt shots, then hats off to them. There's nothing the Jazz can do. The match-up that might turn a couple games in the series is Derrick Favors v. Carmelo Anthony. Favors could be an X-factor for the Jazz if he can find his beast mode.

[Splashin]

I think you guys overrate the jazz, I see okc winning this one.

[Catchall]

Home Court Advantage-OKC
Season Series Advantage-OKC
Experience Level Advantage-OKC
Individual Match Up Advantage-OKC

I have a lot of respect for Utah. They are well coached, they have good chemistry, they play to their strengths and they are certainly capable of winning this series. It just seems like this is a case of a team who had a wonderful regular season and ended up with a very tough match up for them in the first round.

The Jazz and Thunder haven't played one another since December. Gobert was out for two of their games (both losses for the Jazz). The Jazz hadn't added Crowder, Royce O'Neale or Dante Exum to their rotation. The Jazz were a sub-500 team until they turned things around in February to finish 29-6. OKC isn't the same team without Roberson, who is a bonafide 1st-team defender.

Jazz have a coaching advantage.
The benches are even at best for OKC
Gobert is still a matchup advantage over Adams, as much as Adams gives Gobert problems.
Favors might be a match-up advantage over Carmelo unless Melo goes vintage-mode.
OKC isn't an efficient or even particularly good offensive team, whereas the Jazz have the #1 defense in the league.
The Jazz play a tough defensive-minded, slow-paced game that's conducive to the playoffs. To win, OKC needs both Westbrook and PG13 to be pretty dominant offensively.

I think this is going to be a great series that can go either way. Also, if the series doesn't go 7 games, there really isn't much if any homecourt advantage.

[DaPessimist]

Think I’m gonna change my pick on this series. I thought Jazz had HCA.

I’m gonna take OKC in 7.

[SeattleJazzFan]

after a pretty magical run to end the season, sucks the jazz have to play OKC of all teams. unfortunately, especially without HC, not sure the Jazz can make this happen.

[mischievous]

I think you guys overrate the jazz, I see okc winning this one.

To me it comes down to star power winning out. Okc has the best player and 2nd/3rd best player in the series.

[sonictecture]

Home Court Advantage-OKC
Season Series Advantage-OKC
Experience Level Advantage-OKC
Individual Match Up Advantage-OKC

I have a lot of respect for Utah. They are well coached, they have good chemistry, they play to their strengths and they are certainly capable of winning this series. It just seems like this is a case of a team who had a wonderful regular season and ended up with a very tough match up for them in the first round.

The Jazz and Thunder haven't played one another since December. Gobert was out for two of their games (both losses for the Jazz). The Jazz hadn't added Crowder, Royce O'Neale or Dante Exum to their rotation. The Jazz were a sub-500 team until they turned things around in February to finish 29-6. OKC isn't the same team without Roberson, who is a bonafide 1st-team defender.

This is a fair point the two teams haven't played since the end of December. The Thunder never had a period of the season where they were reaching their full potential, they kind of grinded their way through and both teams have the same record. The win of the season series did give OKC home court advantage.

Jazz have a coaching advantage.

I'm curious to how you see this advantage manifesting in this series.

The benches are even at best for OKC

OKC typically has a deep disadvantage with their bench, so to match up with a team where the benches may be even is good for OKC.

Gobert is still a matchup advantage over Adams, as much as Adams gives Gobert problems.

I disagree here. I think the match up is really close.

Favors might be a match-up advantage over Carmelo unless Melo goes vintage-mode.

OKC fans would kind of like to see Favors abuse Carmelo to get Patterson or Grant into the game sooner, but as an overall match up, Carmelo pulls Favors out of his comfort zone to the perimeter and has enough shot creation to cause issues.

OKC isn't an efficient or even particularly good offensive team, whereas the Jazz have the #1 defense in the league.
The Jazz play a tough defensive-minded, slow-paced game that's conducive to the playoffs. To win, OKC needs both Westbrook and PG13 to be pretty dominant offensively.

I think most observers would agree that Westbrook and PG13 have to carry the load for OKC, but that is how the team is built. They don't have to re-calibrate, they just have to be efficient enough to gain the advantage.

[ensiferum]

Jazz will win. Rubio has never lost a PO match. OKC are doomed.

[+2number4+]

Can we have the re-voting option open and see how the votes change every after game? It should be hilarious seeing the graph move like a sinusoid.

[Naero]

Expecting this to be a close-fought defensive slugfest.

The Jazz have forceful momentum under their tailwind moving into the playoffs, having won 17 of of their last 21 games, and an even more blaring home court than OKC, but they'll be too outpaced by the Thunder on the offensive end—even when combated by the Jazz's monolithic defense.

Rudy Gobert will need to control the paint relentlessly to be the much-needed equalizer. I don't doubt that he'll be the best rim-protector of the series by far; however, he's negatable enough if Steven Adams & co. continue to execute their pick'n'roll and move the ball well, as many mismatches are arrangeable in the Thunder's favor given their firepower.

Billy Donovan will need to manage his lineups better than he's done for much of the season and last playoffs; otherwise, OKC will probably suffer potentially fatal ruts on the offensive end. Now isn't the time to appease all his bench fodder as he likes to do; this is the playoffs where rotations must be winnowed down to the best 7-8 players of the team, and his lineup is too top-heavy to not stagger his big three/four throughout the game.

OKC's complementary stars will need to know when to defer to Westbrook when/if the games boil down to crunch time. They've been a boon in the sense that they've disburdened Westbrook from playing balls-to-the-wall for all, meaning he should have much fresher legs down the stretch, but they can be just as disadvantageous if they all clash when push comes to shove—something we've seen too often in the fourth quarter for this team earlier in the season.

I'm leaning towards the Thunder, but it should be an invaluable experience for the Jazz—especially for rookie revelation Donovan Mitchell—and a fun series overall.

Bottom-line prediction: Thunder in 7.

[Antinomy]

OKC in 6.

Playoffs are about stars or guys who can get theirs. Utah has no one to contain Westbrook, George or even Melo if he’s on.

They’ll win 2 games based on talent alone.

[KqWIN]

As a fan of basketball, I think you have to love this matchup. Stylistically, it will be a best on best matchup. Westbrook is going to meet Gobert in the paint and we’re going to see who wins out.

I don’t buy the “star argument” because the Thunders two biggest strengths are not things you’d normally associate with star power. They are the best in the league at offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers.

As a Jazz fan, that’s what I’m worrying about. Adams has and will test Gobert with his physicality. That’s actually the reason why Gobert fell in the draft. Adams kicked Gobert’s ass in workouts and made him look soft. Gobert will have to be the best version of himself, but he hasn’t looked that way recently.

The turnovers might decide the series, it is one area of severe mismatch. The Jazz have had problems all year with throwing lazy passes and commuting unforced turnovers. The Thunder could easily wipe them away if the Jazz get careless and/or overpass.

It’s gonna be a good one.

[Edrees]

Home Court Advantage-OKC
Season Series Advantage-OKC
Experience Level Advantage-OKC
Individual Match Up Advantage-OKC

I have a lot of respect for Utah. They are well coached, they have good chemistry, they play to their strengths and they are certainly capable of winning this series. It just seems like this is a case of a team who had a wonderful regular season and ended up with a very tough match up for them in the first round.

I'm not saying you'll be wrong, but I feel the same was said last year about the Jazz in the playoffs as well.

That's because Quin Snyder had the coaching advantage. And he does this time around as well. Jazz may not be experienced but under his leadship they sure act like it.

[Rauxcee]

There are way more people confident in the Jazz and their chances then I am. And they are my team.

OKC is a terrible match up for us. I think OKC takes it in 5. I'd be shocked at any other outcome.

[Pillendreher]

Favors might be a match-up advantage over Carmelo unless Melo goes vintage-mode.

OKC fans would kind of like to see Favors abuse Carmelo to get Patterson or Grant into the game sooner, but as an overall match up, Carmelo pulls Favors out of his comfort zone to the perimeter and has enough shot creation to cause issues.

One thing that should help the Thunder defensively is the fact that Utah does not have the kind of frontcourt to drag Adams and Melo out of the paint. Sure, Favors takes the odd mid-rangers here and there, but they don't have a guy like Towns that has Adams playing at the 3pt line because of his range. And I doubt they can actually 'play Anthony off the court' - no other team uses the PnR as often as the Jazz, yet only three other teams score less off of it (PnR Ball Handler per synergy). Only five teams play slower than the Jazz. The Jazz take the most drives per game, yet they're 29th in PTS%.

If there's one kind of offense the Thunder struggle with, it's fast paced PnR which has them scrambling. That's not the Jazz.

[SocalJazz]

OKC in 6.

Playoffs are about stars or guys who can get theirs. Utah has no one to contain Westbrook, George or even Melo if he’s on.

They’ll win 2 games based on talent alone.

You're telling me the best defense in the league can't contain these guys??

A weaker Jazz squad contained Melo 8 years ago, they'll contain him just fine now.

George will be hit-or-miss depending on the game.

Westbrook however, scares the absolute s### out of me...

[Splashin]

OKC in 6.

Playoffs are about stars or guys who can get theirs. Utah has no one to contain Westbrook, George or even Melo if he’s on.

They’ll win 2 games based on talent alone.

You're telling me the best defense in the league can't contain these guys??

A weaker Jazz squad contained Melo 8 years ago, they'll contain him just fine now.

George will be hit-or-miss depending on the game.

Westbrook however, scares the absolute s### out of me...

In the 2016 playoffs he scared me more than anyone in the post season, was a straight beast minus the last couple of games in the warriors series.

[Ballings7]

Utah in 6 tough games, one blow out.

I don't think OKC will be able to match Utah's depth across the board, and cohesion on both ends of the floor. This isn't a volume-scorer's or hero baller's series.

Russ and/or Paul George will win a couple games, but Utah will take this in 6.

[theGreatRC]

I think Utah wins this in 6 & Mitchell shows that he's a superstar in this league & Gobert looks like a runaway DPOY

[Hugi Mancura]

Center fight is the reason to watch these series. How does monster Adams can handle defensive superstar Gobert. Can Adams get those offensive rebounds? If we can Utah have no hope, but if Utah can keep him out of rebounds I can see Utah to have a chance. Other problem for Utah if offense. What if OKC decides to allow Mitchell to score as much he wishes from 1-vs-1 situation, but concentrates to stop Rubio and Ingles. Those two are the source for other players in Utah to score, so if OKC stops these two most likely Mitchell won't score enough to win these games, because rest of the team will suck. Put PG13 at Ingles and Huestis at Rubio. Westbrook can watch Mitchell score. Utah can defend and they will find a way to slow OKC offense, so I believe if OKC finds a way to slow Utah defense they will win, but if Okc thinks they can outshoot Utah without playing defense they will have hard time to win this. Still believe OKC will find a way to win series, but seems like interesting series.