WCQF: P1 | (4) OKC Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | Utah wins 4-2

[OGLife]

Either way, I don't think they WANTED TO PLAY ON THE ROAD mate.

cmon now, be realistic.

It's debatable whether they wanted that. What's not debatable is UTA's road dominance, lazy fools need to be reminded.

Since you mentioned let me explain why #5 actually makes sense. Finish #3 and you're favorites. If you lose you fail. That'd put a lot of pressure on their young inexperienced squad. Rubio played 0 minutes. Our leading scorer is a rookie ffs. Isn't being an underdog better considering how the Jazz are playing on the road and the less pressure it brings? I'd say it's pretty realistic.
Besides watch what Quin Snyder said before POR game and think about why he pulled his starters off early vs POR which is very unusual of him.

this assessment lacks context too mate. In a conference where 2 wins separate the 3rd and 8th seed, how is the 3rd seed supposed to be favored? Let's say Utah finished 3rd and OKC finishes 6th, but OKC wins, is mitchell now considered a choke artist? Are the jazz then underachievers and get destroyed by fans and skip bayless?

Jazz, wolves and spurs are the teams with the least amount of pressure. Anthony Davis is under pressure to at least get his first playoff win, Russ has to prove he can get past the 1st round without KD and with a legit star in PG, HOU for obvious reasons and KD is also expected to have some success with 2 all-stars on his team.

And portland...are they really favorties against NOLA just cause theyre 3rd? Both teams have small but good players at PG / SG (POR better of course), both lack prolific wings, Davis is better than Nurkic.

Davis is going to handle Davis

[sonictecture]

Regarding home-away in the series, the Jazz were 15-2 on the road after January 24th when their season turned around. They were 14-4 at home during that time. If the series goes 6 games, each team will have 3 games at home. Home court only matters if the series goes 7.

Historically, from a statistical perspective HCA in the NBA playoffs matters in terms of winning the series. There is also the psychological.

From a historical perspective the game in a series where home court is overcome by opposing team most often, is game 6. Utah is at home in game 6 of this series.

I think the Jazz will have the Thunder schemed out by the third game of the series, and it will be up to Billy Donovan to make a few adjustments. The question for me is whether Westbrook or PG13 will be so dominant that they simply take over the series. They have the talent to do it, but they haven't been efficient offensively or consistent.

I'll be interested to see how the coaching factor effects the series. Quinn certainly deserves coach the year consideration and none of the hardcore fans in OKC seem to think Donovan is a very good coach.

The middle ground of Westbrook/George dominating or allowing teams to beat them with inefficiencyI mentioned earlier in this thread that OKC has grinded their way through the regular season. Westbrook and George have games where they are not terribly efficient or consistent within a game and still grind their way to a victory, even against good teams.

[Andri]

Regarding home-away in the series, the Jazz were 15-2 on the road after January 24th when their season turned around. They were 14-4 at home during that time. If the series goes 6 games, each team will have 3 games at home. Home court only matters if the series goes 7.

Historically, from a statistical perspective HCA in the NBA playoffs matters in terms of winning the series. There is also the psychological.

From a historical perspective the game in a series where home court is overcome by opposing team most often, is game 6. Utah is at home in game 6 of this series.

I think the Jazz will have the Thunder schemed out by the third game of the series, and it will be up to Billy Donovan to make a few adjustments. The question for me is whether Westbrook or PG13 will be so dominant that they simply take over the series. They have the talent to do it, but they haven't been efficient offensively or consistent.

I'll be interested to see how the coaching factor effects the series. Quinn certainly deserves coach the year consideration and none of the hardcore fans in OKC seem to think Donovan is a very good coach.

The middle ground of Westbrook/George dominating or allowing teams to beat them with inefficiencyI mentioned earlier in this thread that OKC has grinded their way through the regular season. Westbrook and George have games where they are not terribly efficient or consistent within a game and still grind their way to a victory, even against good teams.

HCA historically matters because the best team usually has it. Don't confuse correlation with causation.

Teams playing at home usually have better results across all sports though

[Pillendreher]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-what-will-decide-the-thunder-jazz-series/

[LookToShoot]

Thunder in 6. They won’t lose to a team led by a rookie and a bunch of role players.

[FJS]

Utah use to do well as 5th seed.
From 2007 to 2017 they have been 5th seed in 4 times (This year 5th)
2007 They won vs Yao-Tmac Rockets (4-3)
2008 They won vs T-Mac Rockets (4-2)
2010 They won vs the Anthony-Billups-Hilario Nuggets (4-2)
2017 They won vs the Jordan-Griffin-Paul Clippers (4-3)

Usually, the most of win without HCA come when 5th win 4th, because are the most similar teams.

Another point.
Westbrook will do insane numbers, but in his last 2 po appareances, his best is 40FG%. (Carreer average of 41.5, with 29.4 in 3pt)
Let Westbrook to do his thing, try to lock rebounds (watch out with Adams), and lock George and Anthony.

[laika]

They're still 10th overall on the season in DRtG. And have defended quite well when Westbrook commited to the defensive end, even without Roberson. With them defensively, it's more about discipline than skill imo. A lot of games lost on the defensive end because of lackadaisical rotations and bad effort. With Melo back there, you gotta move and help, but sometimes they were just unwilling to do that.

We will see. Maybe the Jazz will turn out to be an unusually poor playoff team but the regular season results overwhelmingly favor the Jazz.

Since Roberson got injured-

Offense-
Utah- 9th
OKC- 11th

Defense-
Utah- 1st by a mile.
OKC- 15th

Overall rating-
Utah- 11.8 (easily #1 in the league)
OKC- 2.2

Record-
Utah- 27-6
OKC- 19-14

[mdonnelly1989]

Ummmmmmmmmmm NOT REALLY

[Johnny Tomala]

Thunder in 6, Gobert donkey offense will be exposed in this round, motivated Westbrook the only true All Star on the team with overrated George and Melo will lead team on his back to round 2. This series won't be as close as people are expecting, definitely no Game 7.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

I feel like Westbrook is going to beast in the playoffs.

[mudsak]

I'm seriously shocked at all the people picking Utah in 5 or 6. I know OKC hasn't looked amazing this season but they can turn it on whenever they want too. The Jazz are solid but there's no damn chance they're beating this Thunder team in a 7 game series especially with OKC having homecourt.

I honestly don't think the Jazz will take this series...I just don't think there is anyway to stop Westbrook. But what you're saying... it's the same thing everyone was saying last year when the underdog Jazz beat the clips in a 7 game series. Regardless... I'm betting this series between OKC/JAZZ is going to be one of the better series of the entire playoffs.

[Rauxcee]

Thunder in 6. They won’t lose to a team led by a rookie and a bunch of role players.

You think Gobert is a role player? Okay....

[LookToShoot]

Thunder in 6. They won’t lose to a team led by a rookie and a bunch of role players.

You think Gobert is a role player? Okay....

Can he create his own offense?

[spicy6]

Thunder in 6. They won’t lose to a team led by a rookie and a bunch of role players.

You think Gobert is a role player? Okay....

Really besides gobert and mitchell, although it depends what ones definition of "role player" is

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Thunder in 6, Gobert donkey offense will be exposed in this round, motivated Westbrook the only true All Star on the team with overrated George and Melo will lead team on his back to round 2. This series won't be as close as people are expecting, definitely no Game 7.

You sound like Trump when you say, “overrated George and Melo.”

[KqWIN]

Thunder in 6. They won’t lose to a team led by a rookie and a bunch of role players.

You think Gobert is a role player? Okay....

He just can't take over a game like Melo can

[Rauxcee]

Thunder in 6. They won’t lose to a team led by a rookie and a bunch of role players.

You think Gobert is a role player? Okay....

Can he create his own offense?

Oh. Duh. I forgot offense is the only part of basketball. If your team doesn't have the ball then all you have to do is stand around and wait your turn to shoot. How silly of me to forget offense is the only thing played in basketball. Just embarrassing on my part.

[LookToShoot]

You think Gobert is a role player? Okay....

Can he create his own offense?

Oh. Duh. I forgot offense is the only part of basketball. If your team doesn't have the ball then all you have to do is stand around and wait your turn to shoot. How silly of me to forget offense is the only thing played in basketball. Just embarrassing on my part.

You can be in love with your team all you want. It’s a team full of role players, they’re not going to win the series.

[Catchall]

Technically, OKC has two stars (who historically are inefficient), a bunch of role players and a mediocre bench.

Otherwise, I wouldn't call Rubio a role player, especially the way he's been playing. How he plays will go a long way to determining the series. Gobert doesn't create offense in isolation, but he's an efficient offensive player around the rim.

The thing is, the Jazz don't have any defensive liabilities to exploit. Westbrook and PG13 may have stretches where they play at a superhuman level, but they'll have to beat good coverage for an entire series. That's hard to do.

[M2J]

This series comes down to how well OKC defends Utah IMO. I expect for OKC to have up and down games in large because they are such an inconsistent 3pt shooting team, and they don't consistently put their best players in position to be their best when it is working. But, I have faith in their Big 3 to get the baskets they need as they have what it takes to go up a notch in the plaoffs and understand how to make adjustments themselves if it is one of those grind it out types of series over what Utah has on it's roster.

I actually do believe it will be a defensive matchup, and the Thunder will out talent them in that situation. OKC has had stretches of being an elite defense this season, and with time to focus on Utah alone, I think we'll see more of that. They've missed Roberson, but Brewer (if he is able to play) has added balance to the starting lineup. A lineup that has been one of the most productive in the league. The bench will be less of an issue with Russ/PG/Melo playing near 40 minutes a night and Adams increasing his as well.