2018 NBA Draft Talk

[Ranma]

If we happen to include our 2 lottery picks in a package along with Gallinari (for salary-matching purposes) in an offer for Kawhi Leonard, I hope we can convince the Spurs to include their first-round pick (18th overall) as part of the return with further expansion in trade talks such as including maybe Junior Rivers and/or DJ's contract(s) should either or both opt in for next season. I still really want an opportunity to further evaluate and possibly draft Anfernee Simons.

[Ranma]

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[madmaxmedia]

FTR: The Pistons' pick is Top 4-protected. It's pretty much locked in at #12, and the chance of losing it is 2.5%. The chance of landing in the top 3 with our own pick at lucky #13 is 2.2%.

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HT: http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

It will be interesting rooting for opposite outcomes for our consecutive picks. On lottery night when they announce the picks, do they immediately announce if the pick is conferred to another team?

After Denver (or whoever if they're lucky) pick, we could hear 0,1, or both Clipper picks announced. If it's only 1 pick, we will be on pins and needles until we know which pick is moving up.

There's only a .055% chance of this happening, but it would be outrageous if both Clipper picks ended up in Top 3. I think we would accept that outcome!

[Ranma]

It will be interesting rooting for opposite outcomes for our consecutive picks. On lottery night when they announce the picks, do they immediately announce if the pick is conferred to another team?

After Denver (or whoever if they're lucky) pick, we could hear 0,1, or both Clipper picks announced. If it's only 1 pick, we will be on pins and needles until we know which pick is moving up.

There's only a .055% chance of this happening, but it would be outrageous if both Clipper picks ended up in Top 3. I think we would accept that outcome!

Yeah, the NBA is well aware of the protections placed on picks or at least they should be, but based on previous half-time lottery-drawing shows, the discussion panel knows what picks are conferred to whom based on the results. With the drawing having taken place like an hour or half hour beforehand, it allows plenty of time to figure out which picks will actually go to whom, so they should have the envelopes ready with the current team for which a particular pick will go to enclosed in the corresponding envelope for the broadcast show.

Below is a link to a simulator for the lottery drawing. I played with it last night and, despite the slight difference in odds, Detroit's pick landed in the top 3 significantly more times than the the Clippers' pick. However, I was able to see both land in the top 3 after about 50 tries.

Tankathon 2018 NBA Draft Lottery Simulator

[madmaxmedia]

Just for fun I did it 50 times. Detroit got our pick 3 times, Clippers ended up in Top 3 once.

I forgot that the ping pong balls are drawn well before the picks are announced, with the team reps witnessing. So it should all be pretty much announced in realtime I guess. First they'll announce (or not announce) the Clippers own pick, then they'll announce (or not announce) the Clipper pick by way of Detroit.

So we're just hoping that around 12-13 they'll say Denver, and then the Clippers by way of Detroit trade. Man would that be a game changer...

[Quake Griffin]

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I don't hate him as a prospect but that scouting report is just about spot on to what I said about him a few pages ago. He doesn't have the ball skills I'd like for a 2 guard and the release on his shot is kind of slow, although i think mechanically his shot looks fine.

Best case scenario imo is Danny Green.
Long arm 2 Guard that can be a pest defensively, hit threes but can't create much off the dribble.

And TBH, in a scenario where SAS takes our 12 and 13 for Kawhi and gives us the 18, I don't think he'd be a bad pick there. Good thing about him is he's young, so there's reason to believe he can add to his skill set when taking this gamble.

[Quake Griffin]

But seriously, what do we do if we land in the 1,2, and 3 slots?

I've not given it much thought since we weren't taking tbh.
I wouldn't know what to do with it if we had it.

Ayton if top 2?
Luka?

Trade back with a crappy organization for their top pick and next year's 1st unprotected?

[TucsonClip]

My draft board would be:

1. Ayton
2. Doncic
3. Jackson Jr. / Bagley / Bamba

I can dive deeper into my scouting reports on them, perhaps at a later date. However, once we get to that third choice(s) it all depends on what we want to do with DJ.

Jackson Jr. would spend time next to him on the floor after we see his jumper continue to develop, but hes a modern day, two-way center, albeit much better defensively.

Bagley isnt going to provide much defensively, but plays his ass off, I think he has more off the bounce game than he was able to show at Duke, and a stud rebounder/athlete.

Bamba is the shoot for the moon replacement for DJ.

I obviously love Ayton, but we provide a great opportunity for Doncic to thrive. He would be able to share ball handling duties with guys like Bev and Lou, would be our ace PNR creator, and I think his jumper/spotting up off the ball is going to play quite well with some fine tuning.

[madmaxmedia]

Well, we have had a history of getting our ping pong balls picked in the last decade (even if we traded the pick!)

[esqtvd]

Well, we have had a history of getting our ping pong balls picked in the last decade (even if we traded the pick!)

ouch

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/5/18/2177310/kyrie-irving-cavaliers-clippers-nba-draft-2011

[TucsonClip]

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The one key phrase in that scouting report which should stick out is, "Smith’s a two-foot jumper who finishes above the rim with authority often."

It stands out to me for the wrong reasons. Yes, he is an amazing athlete. No, he doesnt have good ball skills or a polished offensive game. But guys need to be able to finish off one foot when attacking the basket. It is actually a negative trait to constantly be trying to finish off both feet. How many times per game is that even possible, let alone if you are attacking the basket with the ball in your hands?

This is one thing I immediately learned from a scout I trust. You need to be a functional athlete off one foot to finish at the rim off your own creation. Smith, to me, is a project at a position we have filled at least two fold. Im all for taking a chance on someone with elite length and athleticism, but he doesnt make sense considering how the roster is constructed presently.

Again, guys I would target have: Plus positional size, good athleticism, creation skills, projectable shot mechanics, are willing passers, can play defense, can play and defend multiple positions.

[Ranma]

Jeremy Woo, SI.com (4/18/18)

2018 NBA Mock Draft 6.1: All 60 Picks as Early-Entry Deadline Approaches

[QRich3]

The one key phrase in that scouting report which should stick out is, "Smith’s a two-foot jumper who finishes above the rim with authority often."

It stands out to me for the wrong reasons. Yes, he is an amazing athlete. No, he doesnt have good ball skills or a polished offensive game. But guys need to be able to finish off one foot when attacking the basket. It is actually a negative trait to constantly be trying to finish off both feet. How many times per game is that even possible, let alone if you are attacking the basket with the ball in your hands?

This is one thing I immediately learned from a scout I trust. You need to be a functional athlete off one foot to finish at the rim off your own creation. Smith, to me, is a project at a position we have filled at least two fold. Im all for taking a chance on someone with elite length and athleticism, but he doesnt make sense considering how the roster is constructed presently.

Again, guys I would target have: Plus positional size, good athleticism, creation skills, projectable shot mechanics, are willing passers, can play defense, can play and defend multiple positions.

Yeah I agree with this, but the problem is there's not a lot of depth in this draft at the positions we need the most, there's not a lot of wings and they'll be in high demand. So in the situation we're in, I'd rather go BPA for the guy that has the most chances to have a good career, and figure out the rest later. If you have to dump Austin or cut Milos, or even trade Bev or Lou to make room for him, so be it. Not saying Zhaire is that guy, but if they think he is, they should go ahead and pick him.

What are your thoughts on Khyri Thomas btw? I'm warming up to picking him more and more lately, even though he'd present the same guards-glut problem.

[Quake Griffin]

Chandler Hutchison is being mocked all over the place. I tend to believe the mocks that have him in the 1st round and view any mocks that have him in the 2nd round as being in the stone age.

But, I still feel like I don't really have a feel of where he will land while other players are mocked around the same slots continuously.

And to that end,
The big difference between Mikal Bridges and Hutchison to everybody here is? I wouldn't say they are world's apart as talents at all.

[Quake Griffin]

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The one key phrase in that scouting report which should stick out is, "Smith’s a two-foot jumper who finishes above the rim with authority often."

It stands out to me for the wrong reasons. Yes, he is an amazing athlete. No, he doesnt have good ball skills or a polished offensive game. But guys need to be able to finish off one foot when attacking the basket. It is actually a negative trait to constantly be trying to finish off both feet. How many times per game is that even possible, let alone if you are attacking the basket with the ball in your hands?

This is one thing I immediately learned from a scout I trust. You need to be a functional athlete off one foot to finish at the rim off your own creation. Smith, to me, is a project at a position we have filled at least two fold. Im all for taking a chance on someone with elite length and athleticism, but he doesnt make sense considering how the roster is constructed presently.

Again, guys I would target have: Plus positional size, good athleticism, creation skills, projectable shot mechanics, are willing passers, can play defense, can play and defend multiple positions.

That's an interesting thing to point out.

I wonder what sports science has to say on such an issue. I was/ am a two foot jumper. In HS, I remember I could dunk the ball off two feet but couldn't do a single thing off of one foot. I took about 2-3 weeks to practice one foot jumping and I was eventually able to dunk it off one foot.

That colors my ideas on the subject. I wonder if it's just a matter of getting him in the gym and making him do and finish his drills off of one foot.

[Quake Griffin]

DiVincenzo declares for the draft.


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[Dunken Dave]

The Detroit is top 4 protected, which means if Detroit moves into the top 3 we won't get the pick this year. Really would love for the Clippers' pick to wind up in the top 3----opens up so many possibilities-----move down via trade or stay put. I think we need wing players but the guy who would best for us is Mikal Bridges------he won't be there at 12/13. Zhaire Smith, depending on work effort, will turn out to be an excellent player; doesn't force the game and will be a top notch defender----his offensive game will grow tremendously as he's still very young. I really like Hutchinson as well------he's a worker that has greatly improved in college.

[TucsonClip]

Yeah I agree with this, but the problem is there's not a lot of depth in this draft at the positions we need the most, there's not a lot of wings and they'll be in high demand. So in the situation we're in, I'd rather go BPA for the guy that has the most chances to have a good career, and figure out the rest later. If you have to dump Austin or cut Milos, or even trade Bev or Lou to make room for him, so be it. Not saying Zhaire is that guy, but if they think he is, they should go ahead and pick him.

What are your thoughts on Khyri Thomas btw? I'm warming up to picking him more and more lately, even though he'd present the same guards-glut problem.

Good point. I dont think Smith should be ruled out, but I would rather take guys like Knox and Hutchinson who can definitely play two, and possibly three positions (SG) based on development, their jumper, and lateral quickness/defense.

Regarding Thomas, I would put him in there with Smith, although I havent watched as much of him. They are both interesting, but I want size. Look at the Celtics, Warriors, 76ers, ect. I want big PGs who can play the 1/2, big wings who are athletic enough to play 2-4. Those are the guys I would be hunting for, as they provide the switchability that we are lacking, IMO.

All things considered, I would rather take a shot on Smith over Thomas.

[TucsonClip]

Chandler Hutchison is being mocked all over the place. I tend to believe the mocks that have him in the 1st round and view any mocks that have him in the 2nd round as being in the stone age.

But, I still feel like I don't really have a feel of where he will land while other players are mocked around the same slots continuously.

And to that end,
The big difference between Mikal Bridges and Hutchison to everybody here is? I wouldn't say they are world's apart as talents at all.

Mikal is the far better shooter, both off the catch and off the dribble (which he really developed this past season). I think hes an elite role player, someone who you know can defend, can already shoot, has some creation skills off closeouts. Hutchinson, to me, looks like the better athlete with a bit bigger frame, and has displayed more creations ability (although he would be more of a secondary ball handler at best, but also with the ability to attack on closeouts off limited dribbles).

Bridges can play 2-3, and Hutchinson hopefully 2-4 (but that might be pushing it).

Another big difference, is we are projecting Hutchinson's defense based on his athleticism and not results (as he played in a zone). Bridges is one of the elite defensive wings in the draft.

[TucsonClip]

That's an interesting thing to point out.

I wonder what sports science has to say on such an issue. I was/ am a two foot jumper. In HS, I remember I could dunk the ball off two feet but couldn't do a single thing off of one foot. I took about 2-3 weeks to practice one foot jumping and I was eventually able to dunk it off one foot.

That colors my ideas on the subject. I wonder if it's just a matter of getting him in the gym and making him do and finish his drills off of one foot.

THis is what Donovan Mitchell is going through. Hes an explosive athlete off two feet, but is being taught to attack off one foot. You will see him explode off one foot every now and then. Lately his killer move at the rim has been his change of pace, glide into a one foot layup, but he swings his massively long arms under the shot blocker's arms and finishes with an and-1 basically behind that player's back. Much like what Harden does by sticking the ball out and drawing contact. He did this to DJ at the end of the year.

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