'17-'18 POY discussion

[dontcalltimeout]

Decent swan song for the Joker, but alas, he's out of the running. Still a ton of guys left.

I thought he played really well. He had to force the issue many times in the second half to even keep his team close. He made a lot of passes and plays that should have been buckets but the other Denver players went cold for long stretches. The Nuggets actually won the 46 minutes he played (+7) but lost by six. sigh

Yeah, decent was an understatement.

Hah. My apologies!

[Mystical Apples]

For awhile Jokic was practically dragging his Denver teammates. Kinda felt like a Final Four game, ages and everything.

And that's why you get Jimmy.

[ardee]

After rethinking it, Westbrook would be in my top 5. Just not sure who drops out, Giannis or Lillard.

[dontcalltimeout]

Anyone read Lowe's end of year awards?

Some really interesting stuff on Harden vs LeBron and the DPOY debate. He has Jokic and Simmons on his 3rd team All-NBA too.

[NinjaSheppard]

1. James Harden

2. LeBron James
3. Anthony Davis
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Feel pretty comfortable with those being my top 4 and I don't really see an argument for them not being on any list. Harden and James are obvious and whatever you might think of Davis and Giannis' limitations they have both played the majority of games and been top 5 defensive players in the league.

Lillard vs Oladipo would be my choice for number 5. Not really sure which way I'd lean towards on that one yet.

Jokic/Durant are the other heavy games players who have question marks. I'd put Durant on there if the team wasn't so ordinary without Curry.

Paul and Curry have missed too many games and Embiid has as well. Sixers run without him has also shown how flawed the simple +/- analysis people were using was.

[eminence]

General thoughts on each playoff team going into the playoffs. Jokic/Kemba were both great on non-playoff squads, but not enough imo to make serious runs at the Top 5 without a playoff showing.

Toronto - Team took a step forward this season, but it largely seemed to be on the back of some ridiculous depth. Lowry/DD seem to be about who they were in the past (some improvement for DD). Wouldn't have either top 10 as of now, but for the team to make a deep playoff run it'll likely need the stars to step up and that could be enough to get them in the conversation.

Boston - Horford is a pretty similar case to Lowry/DD above.

Philadelphia - Embiid was great when he played, and I don't think he's missed nearly enough games to get knocked down too far. A strong contender for top 5 imo. Simmons/Covington have both had great seasons as well, it'll be especially fun to see Simmons in his first playoffs.

Cleveland - All revolves around LeBron as usual. Weaker regular season, but if he has a 'normal' LeBron level playoffs I expect him to wind up solidly among my top 5 and competing for #1.

Indianapolis - Oladipo has been amazing this season and he's in my current top 5, we'll see if he can hang on, make a series of it against Cleveland and he just might.

Miami - Don't think they have any guys on the radar at this point.

Milwaukee - Giannis's progression slowed significantly this season imo, but he's still had a great season. With Boston banged up he has a real chance to make some noise.

Washington - Beal/Porter have been solid all season, but beat Toronto and then we'll start talking.

Houston - Harden and Paul have both had spectacular seasons, Harden is the closest guy in the league to being a lock for a top 5 spot on my list.

Golden State - Curry is the best player in the league when healthy. If he gets back quick enough and plays well enough he could still make a run at #1 on my board. KD/Draymond have both played far worse during this regular season but have both played well enough (~top 20 guys) that if they lock in they'll go shooting up the rankings. They have some equity built up in my book (similar to LeBron).

Portland - Lillard's been great, but I'm conflicted about where to put him. He's a contender for a spot for sure, but Portland is the 3 seed partially due to a spectacularly healthy season, when healthy I think the rest of the West 4-9 are all stronger teams.

Oklahoma City - Westbrook's been down from last season, but still very good. He's on the fringe of my top 5 currently. PG13 is deserving of some sort of HM, but not in real contention.

Utah - Gobert has missed a couple too many for me to seriously consider him as of now, it'd take a huge playoff run to make it. Mitchell/Ingles both deserving of an HM as well.

New Orleans - Davis has been phenomenal, and they've got a decent matchup in the 1st round, I'd like to see as much of him in the playoffs as possible. Shoutout to Jrue as well.

San Antonio - Aldridge is kind of in the Lowry/Horford/etc position. If they go deep he'll likely get a ton of credit.

Minnesota - Butler looked like a top 5 lock then missed a huge chunk, not sure if he can get back on without upsetting Houston. KAT deserves an HM as well.

Current top 5 (will undergo big changes due to how heavily I weight playoffs):
1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Oladipo
4. Westbrook
5. Giannis/LeBron

[ShotCreator]

Jokic/Durant are the other heavy games players who have question marks. I'd put Durant on there if the team wasn't so ordinary without Curry.

Putting Jokic and Durant on the same level is incredibly unfair to Jokic. Do people not realize how bad Durant got inflamed defensively this year?

He was at over 120 ORTG before Curry went down and the last couple months tanked him to 117.4, his DRTG stayed at 110.6 on the whole.

He was a mere +6.8 on-court guy getting staggered with Curry for the vast majority of his minutes. "Ordinary" without Curry? On the standard of your average NBA all-star, at-best, yes. "Ordinary" for a top 5 or top 10 guy? Absolutely not.

A guy like Victor Oladipo, and his should-be lottery ish team around him, won as much in his on-court minutes as KD and the Warriors, at +6.6. Think about what that entails for a second....


Durant was no better than Draymond in his massive down year, and really not better than a guy like Lamarcus Aldridge this season in my honest opinion.

His defense was atrocious and his offense while still hisprime level, took a bit of a step back in terms of rim pressure.

I know when Durant plays like normal MVP, he gets GOAT hype, and when he plays like a normal All-NBA guy, he gets MVP hype, and so on and so forth, but being a generic all-star level player and getting top 5 talk is just too much for me to let go as far as posting goes.

[bondom34]

Honestly I'm still pretty close to where I was a few weeks ago and agree with a lot of what eminence just posted. I've got Lebron a bit higher and the only guys I know are in my 5 right now are Davis, Harden, and Lebron. After that there's a group of Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Oladipo, Lillard, Aldridge, Embiid, Gobert, and Giannis. Then probably a drop unless I'm forgetting someone.

[therealbig3]

Honestly I'm still pretty close to where I was a few weeks ago and agree with a lot of what eminence just posted. I've got Lebron a bit higher and the only guys I know are in my 5 right now are Davis, Harden, and Lebron. After that there's a group of Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Oladipo, Lillard, Aldridge, Embiid, Gobert, and Giannis. Then probably a drop unless I'm forgetting someone.

If you're considering health though, not sure I can keep Paul, Curry, and Embiid in the running. Giannis, Oladipo, Lillard, and Westbrook, in addition to Davis, Harden, and LeBron, would be my top 7. Of course, if Curry or Paul absolutely kill it in the playoffs, they might be back in the running, but they would have to be so much better than the guys ahead of them to make up the fact that they missed so many RS games. Not to mention that Curry is out for the 1st round any way.

[bondom34]

Honestly I'm still pretty close to where I was a few weeks ago and agree with a lot of what eminence just posted. I've got Lebron a bit higher and the only guys I know are in my 5 right now are Davis, Harden, and Lebron. After that there's a group of Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Oladipo, Lillard, Aldridge, Embiid, Gobert, and Giannis. Then probably a drop unless I'm forgetting someone.

If you're considering health though, not sure I can keep Paul, Curry, and Embiid in the running. Giannis, Oladipo, Lillard, and Westbrook, in addition to Davis, Harden, and LeBron, would be my top 7. Of course, if Curry or Paul absolutely kill it in the playoffs, they might be back in the running, but they would have to be so much better than the guys ahead of them to make up the fact that they missed so many RS games. Not to mention that Curry is out for the 1st round any way.

Yeah I'm still at the ppint where outside the top few the playoffs are gonna matter way more than usual because I don't feel strongly about many.

[SideshowBob]

Putting In/Out data together today for the RS.

Any ideas as to what splits to use for Cleveland? Too many guys in and out of the lineup.

[MisterHibachi]

Putting In/Out data together today for the RS.

Any ideas as to what splits to use for Cleveland? Too many guys in and out of the lineup.

LeBron/Love/Nance/Hill

And maybe Green, seen some numbers floating around showing him as a significant positive. I don't think Hood's played enough for a meaningful sample, although that holds true for basically all post deadline lineups.

Actually, might be better to just do pre-IT, IT, and post-trade splits.

[eminence]

2nd Season Day 1, pair of blowouts, pair of good games. Studs and duds for guys I have as contenders in my mind (not too late to get on the list with some great games - Jrue!)

Studs:
KD
Dray
Simmons
Davis

Duds:
Aldridge
Lowry
DeRozan
Lillard

[ardee]

Why are some people so crazy high on Oladipo? He's good, very good, but I just don't see him as a top 5 contender. None of the stats spell it out and neither does the eye test. Are people doing it because of plus-minus?

[dhsilv2]

Why are some people so crazy high on Oladipo? He's good, very good, but I just don't see him as a top 5 contender. None of the stats spell it out and neither does the eye test. Are people doing it because of plus-minus?

Plus minus ARE stats. So I'm not sure why you're dismissing them.

But two things to think about with him.

1. People like to give it to the best player at their "position" and I'd say he pretty clearly was the best shooting guard since butler got hurt and Harden has become a point.
2. His defense was really really good this year. Of the people healthy he's got a good case as the best defensive guard in the league...again your definition of guard may vary.

I wouldn't rank him top 5 or even 10, but his defense certainly is enough to second guess the box score metrics along with playing 75 games at 34 a game which there weren't a lot of stars who did that this year. We had a lot of great top 10 candidates miss a lot of games.

[mischievous]

Why are some people so crazy high on Oladipo? He's good, very good, but I just don't see him as a top 5 contender. None of the stats spell it out and neither does the eye test. Are people doing it because of plus-minus?

It’s equally ridiculous to Kyle Lowry getting top 5 mentions at some points in the season last year. People like to overreact, and the dare to be different come out of some people when a player takes a big leap like that.

I probably haven’t watched as much Pacers and Oladipo as others, but it seems really stupid to take him over Giannis for example who some are omitting from their top 5.

I have to say though, it kind of seems like a weak year for the top 5-7 competition with Kawhi being out, Westbrook having a subpar year, Curry, Kd and Butler missing significant time, Cp3 missing his annual 20ish games etc!

[Unbiased hater]

I dont like what refs did on Portland vs NO game with those fast calls when Nurkic and Ed Davis just touched NO players at the beginning of the game bc refs established criteria that helps Pelicans and Anthony Davis. He can shoot 3's and midranges so those who guard him need to follow him away from basket and with this criteria he got free ride to the basket bc his defenders knew that they cant play hard defense on him and that they would get foul called if they tried to play defense against him. Refs neutralised one of the biggest advantages that Portland has in this matchup. Everyone is talking about physicality in playoffs but refs allowed less physicality than in RS .

[laika]

-----------------On---Off---On/Off---RAPM---RPM---PER----Min
1.Curry-------14.3--+0.1----14.2--------2-------2------4-----1630
2.Paul--------13.0--+4.5------8.5--------5-------1-----15----1850
3.Harden------9.9--+5.8------4.1------17-------3-------1----2550
4.Lillard-------6.2---4.9-----11.1--------6-----10-------7----2670
5.Butler--------8.3---5.1----13.4--------7-------4-----18-----2160

6.Oladipo------6.3---7.6----13.9--------9-------7-----19-----2550
7.Davis---------5.2--7.1----12.3-------29-------8------2-----2730
8.Embiid------12.2--2.7----14.9--------4------13-----20-----1910
9.Giannis-------2.6--6.9-----9.5-------21------16------5-----2760
10.Lebron------1.6--1.4------3.0-------36-----15------3-----3030
11.Towns-------6.2--8.8----15.0-------16------17----10-----2920
12.Westbrook--6.3--4.7----11.0-------19-----12-----11-----2910
13.Aldridge-----5.4--1.5-----6.9-------12------25------8-----2510
14.Gobert-------9.1-+0.2----8.9--------26-----19-----31-----1820
15.Durant-------7.2-+4.2----3.0--------78-----35-------6-----2330
16.Simmons----6.8--0.7-----7.5--------35-----27-----39-----2730
17.Lowry--------7.7--7.8---N0.1--------29-------9-----46-----2510
18.Porter--------5.3--7.4---12.7---------8------11-----57-----2430
19.Horford------7.3--1.5----8.8---------41-----20-----69-----2280
NR-Green-------6.5-+5.2----1.3---------53-----29----111-----2290

Curry has been clearly the best player per minute in the NBA this year but he has the least minutes of the top players. He'll have to lead the Warriors to the title to finish #1. Paul and Harden are almost tied. Paul has the better impact numbers but Harden has the better box score stats. Lebron's impact has severely fallen. He is not in my top 5 unless he at least makes the finals.

I heavily weight the playoffs though so these rankings can change significantly.

[eminence]

Harden great in game 1, CP3 not so much. Wolves couldn't take advantage.

Oladipo another big performer. If LeBron gets upended in round 1 I doubt he makes my ballot.

PG13 powered the Thunder. Gobert battled to a standstill by Adams.

Giannis and Middleton left the supporting cast in Milwaukee. Good balanced effort from Boston.

[bondom34]

Thanks to reddit.