WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | UTA 4-2

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Series Prediction

Thunder in 4
1
1%
Thunder in 5
6
8%
Thunder in 6
20
25%
Thunder in 7
6
8%
Jazz in 4
0
No votes
Jazz in 5
17
22%
Jazz in 6
25
32%
Jazz in 7
4
5%
 
Total votes: 79

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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#221 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:16 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:There's no tangible evidence that Gobert made a larger impact in the win column. In fact there's evidence pointing the opposite direction in the RPM wins data. This is literally the harden vs Westbrook mvp debate and you have flipped sides because of the player you prefer.

You don't think Gobert's team's season entirely flipping when he returned and KAT's team's season going down the drain without Butler is tangible?

slick_watts wrote:kat's edge on rpm is a lot smaller than the error in the data. rpm shows the polarizing impact of the two.

wolves are a net negative in 1k minutes with towns on the court without butler. gobert is the butler of the jazz.



This.

They were something like 11-17 with him prior to the hot steak, I'd say Rubio's sudden ability to but three pointers and Mitchell's meteoric rise, along with getting a top 20 player back created a set of circumstances where everything aligned.

Minny with Butler in and towns out was also a net negative, that means nothing except they were extremely reliant on those two guys.

When he returned they were the 10 seed and sub .500 with a middling defense. Since they were the best team in the NBA.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#222 » by spearsy23 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:23 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:You don't think Gobert's team's season entirely flipping when he returned and KAT's team's season going down the drain without Butler is tangible?




This.

They were something like 11-17 with him prior to the hot steak, I'd say Rubio's sudden ability to but three pointers and Mitchell's meteoric rise, along with getting a top 20 player back created a set of circumstances where everything aligned.

Minny with Butler in and towns out was also a net negative, that means nothing except they were extremely reliant on those two guys.

When he returned they were the 10 seed and sub .500 with a middling defense. Since they were the best team in the NBA.

That doesn't refute anything. They were 6-11 with him prior to that streak and 12-15 without him. Does he get credited with making them worse prior to that streak?
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#223 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:24 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:They were something like 11-17 with him prior to the hot steak, I'd say Rubio's sudden ability to but three pointers and Mitchell's meteoric rise, along with getting a top 20 player back created a set of circumstances where everything aligned.

Minny with Butler in and towns out was also a net negative, that means nothing except they were extremely reliant on those two guys.

When he returned they were the 10 seed and sub .500 with a middling defense. Since they were the best team in the NBA.

That doesn't refute anything. They were 6-11 with him prior to that streak and 12-15 without him. Does he get credited with making them worse prior to that streak?

How has KAT been without an MVP caliber player?
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#224 » by spearsy23 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:32 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:When he returned they were the 10 seed and sub .500 with a middling defense. Since they were the best team in the NBA.

That doesn't refute anything. They were 6-11 with him prior to that streak and 12-15 without him. Does he get credited with making them worse prior to that streak?

How has KAT been without an MVP caliber player?

I'm not sure how to take that question. If you're asking how much team success he's had them admit you're a hypocrite and James harden should've been the mvp last year.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#225 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:36 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:That doesn't refute anything. They were 6-11 with him prior to that streak and 12-15 without him. Does he get credited with making them worse prior to that streak?

How has KAT been without an MVP caliber player?

I'm not sure how to take that question. If you're asking how much team success he's had them admit you're a hypocrite and James harden should've been the mvp last year.

Because I think it's more valuable for a big man to be elite defensively than to be elite offensively and terrible defensively. Its entirely different. I don't find value in Enes for the same reason.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#226 » by spearsy23 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:46 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:How has KAT been without an MVP caliber player?

I'm not sure how to take that question. If you're asking how much team success he's had them admit you're a hypocrite and James harden should've been the mvp last year.

Because I think it's more valuable for a big man to be elite defensively than to be elite offensively and terrible defensively. Its entirely different. I don't find value in Enes for the same reason.

What you prefer has no bearing on the impact of the game. Your entire basis for your argument is that gobert's team won a lot and KAT's didn't, despite the fact that KAT's team was complete trash without him on the court and he raised their level more than Gobert did as shown by multiple metrics. But because Gobert had better players around him that must mean he was better, just like harden last year.

Btw, without Butler Kat put up 25/12.5/2.5/1 on 54/43/85
Team was -2.3 net while KAT was on and -11 with him off. That's still a better on/off than gobert
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#227 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:47 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:I'm not sure how to take that question. If you're asking how much team success he's had them admit you're a hypocrite and James harden should've been the mvp last year.

Because I think it's more valuable for a big man to be elite defensively than to be elite offensively and terrible defensively. Its entirely different. I don't find value in Enes for the same reason.

What you prefer has no bearing on the impact of the game. Your entire basis for your argument is that gobert's team won a lot and KAT's didn't, despite the fact that KAT's team was complete trash without him on the court and he raised their level more than Gobert did as shown by multiple metrics. But because Gobert had better players around him that must mean he was better, just like harden last year.

Btw, without Butler Kat put up 25/12.5/2.5/1 on 54/43/85
Team was -2.3 net while KAT was on and -11 with him off. That's still a better on/off than gobert

Pretty sure its a worse on court rating. And Utah while talented isn't really moreso than Minny.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#228 » by spearsy23 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:15 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Because I think it's more valuable for a big man to be elite defensively than to be elite offensively and terrible defensively. Its entirely different. I don't find value in Enes for the same reason.

What you prefer has no bearing on the impact of the game. Your entire basis for your argument is that gobert's team won a lot and KAT's didn't, despite the fact that KAT's team was complete trash without him on the court and he raised their level more than Gobert did as shown by multiple metrics. But because Gobert had better players around him that must mean he was better, just like harden last year.

Btw, without Butler Kat put up 25/12.5/2.5/1 on 54/43/85
Team was -2.3 net while KAT was on and -11 with him off. That's still a better on/off than gobert

Pretty sure its a worse on court rating.

Just like Westbrook and harden last year! Boy it's amazing the parallels. Really the only difference is that Utah only won 1 more game, which hurts your case even more.

And Utah while talented isn't really moreso than Minny.

Lol okay. Utah has a quality starter at every position, using RPM for starters they have the 12th best PG, 5th best sg, 4th best SF, and 17th PF for an average of 9.5. Minny is 16th, 2nd , 20th(ish?), 18 for an average of 14th. Then there's the benches, where Utah has the 4th best in the league and Minny the 20th. So yes, Utah is SIGNIFICANTLY more talented.

Minny has no bench while Utah has one of the best in the league.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#229 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:19 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:What you prefer has no bearing on the impact of the game. Your entire basis for your argument is that gobert's team won a lot and KAT's didn't, despite the fact that KAT's team was complete trash without him on the court and he raised their level more than Gobert did as shown by multiple metrics. But because Gobert had better players around him that must mean he was better, just like harden last year.

Btw, without Butler Kat put up 25/12.5/2.5/1 on 54/43/85
Team was -2.3 net while KAT was on and -11 with him off. That's still a better on/off than gobert

Pretty sure its a worse on court rating.

Just like Westbrook and harden last year! Boy it's amazing the parallels. Really the only difference is that Utah only won 1 more game, which hurts your case even more.

And Utah while talented isn't really moreso than Minny.

Lol okay. Utah has a quality starter at every position, using RPM for starters they have the 12th best PG, 5th best sg, 4th best SF, and 17th PF for an average of 9.5. Minny is 16th, 2nd , 20th(ish?), 18 for an average of 14th. Then there's the benches, where Utah has the 4th best in the league and Minny the 20th. So yes, Utah is SIGNIFICANTLY more talented.

Minny has no bench while Utah has one of the best in the league.

Really it's not amazing the parallels, because there aren't any. KAT's team was literally non-competetive and he's not their best player, at all. Utah's starters outside Gobert are comparable to Minny's w/o Kat. Utah is better coached.

But the value of defense in a big is more than that on offense in the current NBA. It's having a PG who hurts your offense having a big who can't defend. Enes was amazing on offense but he's a backup big because of his defense. KAT's not that bad defensively but it lowers his value IMO.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#230 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:29 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Pretty sure its a worse on court rating.

Just like Westbrook and harden last year! Boy it's amazing the parallels. Really the only difference is that Utah only won 1 more game, which hurts your case even more.

And Utah while talented isn't really moreso than Minny.

Lol okay. Utah has a quality starter at every position, using RPM for starters they have the 12th best PG, 5th best sg, 4th best SF, and 17th PF for an average of 9.5. Minny is 16th, 2nd , 20th(ish?), 18 for an average of 14th. Then there's the benches, where Utah has the 4th best in the league and Minny the 20th. So yes, Utah is SIGNIFICANTLY more talented.

Minny has no bench while Utah has one of the best in the league.

Really it's not amazing the parallels, because there aren't any. KAT's team was literally non-competetive and he's not their best player, at all. Utah's starters outside Gobert are comparable to Minny's w/o Kat. Utah is better coached.

But the value of defense in a big is more than that on offense in the current NBA. It's having a PG who hurts your offense having a big who can't defend. Enes was amazing on offense but he's a backup big because of his defense. KAT's not that bad defensively but it lowers his value IMO.

And FYI, I'll own it if/when I'm wrong but the poll is at 6 KAT, 5 Gobert, 3 PG so far. So these 3 are close and you may have the edge.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#231 » by spearsy23 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:31 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Pretty sure its a worse on court rating.

Just like Westbrook and harden last year! Boy it's amazing the parallels. Really the only difference is that Utah only won 1 more game, which hurts your case even more.

And Utah while talented isn't really moreso than Minny.

Lol okay. Utah has a quality starter at every position, using RPM for starters they have the 12th best PG, 5th best sg, 4th best SF, and 17th PF for an average of 9.5. Minny is 16th, 2nd , 20th(ish?), 18 for an average of 14th. Then there's the benches, where Utah has the 4th best in the league and Minny the 20th. So yes, Utah is SIGNIFICANTLY more talented.

Minny has no bench while Utah has one of the best in the league.

Really it's not amazing the parallels, because there aren't any.

Yeah, right. Except for all of them that I've even pointed out as we went along.

KAT's team was literally non-competetive and he's not their best player, at all.

KAT's team won 1 less game than Gobert's...
Utah's starters outside Gobert are comparable to Minny's w/o Kat.

I literally just showed that they weren't we're talking an average of 4.5 players separating them at each position .

Utah is better coached.

And has a vastly better supporting cast.

But the value of defense in a big is more than that on offense in the current NBA.

That's absolutely a fair point of you're starting a team and want to build a certain way. It's irrelevant when we've got data showing the effect players are having on their current team. An offensive big is less valuable than a defensive unless that offensive big adds more value in his area of strength and subtracts less in his area of weakness, which is exactly what happened with Towns/Gobert. And even if you disagree with that despite the arguments being 100% the same as the ones you've used in the past (not only for Westbrook, but also Roberson), there's absolutely no way to justify saying Gobert had a better year when impact stats are extremely close, wins are almost identical, and Gobert played 20 fewer games.

There is no logical way to conclude Gobert had a better season outside of team performance is the deciding factor in who the better player is.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#232 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:34 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:Just like Westbrook and harden last year! Boy it's amazing the parallels. Really the only difference is that Utah only won 1 more game, which hurts your case even more.


Lol okay. Utah has a quality starter at every position, using RPM for starters they have the 12th best PG, 5th best sg, 4th best SF, and 17th PF for an average of 9.5. Minny is 16th, 2nd , 20th(ish?), 18 for an average of 14th. Then there's the benches, where Utah has the 4th best in the league and Minny the 20th. So yes, Utah is SIGNIFICANTLY more talented.

Minny has no bench while Utah has one of the best in the league.

Really it's not amazing the parallels, because there aren't any.

Yeah, right. Except for all of them that I've even pointed out as we went along.

KAT's team was literally non-competetive and he's not their best player, at all.

KAT's team won 1 less game than Gobert's...
Utah's starters outside Gobert are comparable to Minny's w/o Kat.

I literally just showed that they weren't we're talking an average of 4.5 players separating them at each position .

Utah is better coached.

And has a vastly better supporting cast.

But the value of defense in a big is more than that on offense in the current NBA.

That's absolutely a fair point of you're starting a team and want to build a certain way. It's irrelevant when we've got data showing the effect players are having on their current team. An offensive big is less valuable than a defensive unless that offensive big adds more value in his area of strength and subtracts less in his area of weakness, which is exactly what happened with Towns/Gobert. And even if you disagree with that despite the arguments being 100% the same as the ones you've used in the past (not only for Westbrook, but also Roberson), there's absolutely no way to justify saying Gobert had a better year when impact stats are extremely close, wins are almost identical, and Gobert played 20 fewer games.

There is no logical way to conclude Gobert had a better season outside of team performance is the deciding factor in who the better player is.

You didn't point them out. And they don't have a vastly better cast, its slight at best. The value of defense in a big man is a huge deal to me. And as I said, the poll is tight.
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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

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Re: WCQF | (4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | OKC 1-0 

Post#240 » by Pillendreher » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:35 am

Excellent win. After being down 16-4, they outscored the Jazz 105-75 over the next 40 minutes (+31 NetRtG). I don't care much for the ending, but at that point the game was over.

After the rough start initially, I think the defensive gameplan was working very, very well. Since Gobert came back, the Jazz were averaging 307 passes per game, 28 assists adjusted per game and 427 touches per game. Yesterday? 276 passes, 24 assists adjusted and 398 touches. They only took 22 pull up FGA per game, yet yesterday they took 27.
The team did an excellent job taking them out of rhythm and forcing their worst offensive players to make plays: Rubio with a 31 USG% is probably the best that can happen for the Thunder. 18 USG% for Crowder is also a very good sign that the defensive gameplan was working. Meanwhile Ingles was only 8th (!!!) on their team in USG%. The Jazz are 25-25 in the RS when his USG% is below 17 %. I think this 'just let George take him out of plays' strategy worked really well. Since Gobert came back, Ingles averaged 53 touches per game: Yesterday he had 40.

Now with regards to the 'Yeah, but if the Jazz shoot better' replies: That's a direct result of the Thunder's defensive gameplan. They Mitchell as probably the one guy who can create shots for himself and others. He played well. Other than that, they heavily rely on their system getting them good looks. They basically rely on 5 guys for their outside shooting: Mitchell, who has shot 33.2 % from 3 since Gobert came back, Ingles, whom they took out of the game, Crowder, who's shooting 31.6 % from 3 with the Jazz, Rubio, who's a 32.5 % career 3pt shooter, and Jerebko, who's just taking two 3s a game. So when you force the non-shooters to make shots, this is what happens. And let's not act like they were bricking left and right: 39.3 % from 3 is still very good.

With regards to shooting, this is also interesting: Per stats.nba.com, they shot 34 contested shots and made 18; we took 32 contested shots and made 12th. They took 53 uncontested shots and made 23 (and again: The defensive gameplan forced this - Rubio and Crowder got 20 of those 53 and made 4); we took 53 uncontested shots and made 29. Closest defender breakdown:

Very tight: OKC 4-8 | UTA 5-7
Tight: OKC 16-28 | UTA 18-27
Open: OKC 14-29 | UTA 11-26
Wide Open: OKC 7-13 | UTA 7-22

Again: It matters who's taking the shots. Rubio+Crowder were 3-18 on open and wide open shots (11 of them were 3s). Meanwhile, Anthony, George and Abrines went 12-20 on open and wide open 3s. They didn't make our worst shooters shoot - we did with theirs.

Which brings me to the offense: It was very good to see George going off like this. He won't be able to do this all postseason long, but just making shots is so important. And it's not like this is new or whatever: Before the ASB, he was shooting 45.4 % on open and wide open 3s. He's very capable of making those. His shot just left him after the break, but I do hope it's back and here to stay.
Generally though, they are going to have to find ways to score without relying on the pull ups so much. 36 pull ups compared to 26 attempts at the rim is not a good enough balance. Russ was very hesitant in the PnR and threw some dangerous passes behind the role man. Even with Gobert on the bench, they weren't really going at them. Russ making some jumpers changed how much Gobert hang back, but they still need to find ways to attack the rim. I'd like to see them use Grant a little bit more, just to put some pressure on them.

Shoutout to Melo btw. I know his % don't look all that great, but I think he played well. Timely buckets, 3 steals, 2 blocks. I didn't like the isos against Favors though: Pick your spots with that.

Abrines also continues to impress. His defense has improved and he's been making shots at a very high rate. Since that loss to Houston in March, he's shooting 47.8 % from 3 (22/46) in 16 games. Maybe he's not dead money afterall. ;)
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said

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