Where should the Wizards go from here?

[gtn130]

Assuming they lose in 4-5 games to Toronto, what should the Wizards do besides fire EG?

They're going to be 5th in payroll next season before they make a single move. Having three max contracts + Ian Mahinmi has made it so that the Wizards have very little flexibility. What do they do?

I think there's a very good chance Wall's contract will be immovable. Maybe Detroit could move on from Blake (yuck). Maybe someone like Denver could make some sense. There are very few possibilities there because there simply aren't many teams who:

A) need a PG
B) would take on Wall's deal
C) have something the Wizards would want in return that matches salaries and is equitable

Beal might be the most movable piece among the max contract guys.

Is there an argument for keeping this group together? Does anyone actually want to see that happen even if it might be practical?

What is the move?

[Dat2U]

Assuming they lose in 4-5 games to Toronto, what should the Wizards do besides fire EG?

They're going to be 5th in payroll next season before they make a single move. Having three max contracts + Ian Mahinmi has made it so that the Wizards have very little flexibility. What do they do?

I think there's a very good chance Wall's contract will be immovable. Maybe Detroit could move on from Blake (yuck). Maybe someone like Denver could make some sense. There are very few possibilities there because there simply aren't many teams who:

A) need a PG
B) would take on Wall's deal
C) have something the Wizards would want in return that matches salaries and is equitable

Beal might be the most movable piece among the max contract guys.

Is there an argument for keeping this group together? Does anyone actually want to see that happen even if it might be practical?

What is the move?

There's only 4 good players on the team. 3 of them are getting max deals. The other one is a free agent next year and is currently a no show in these playoffs. Only one other player has value on the roster and that's Oubre who we'll have to make a financial decision on soon.

So if you start with that, it should make things pretty simple. The rest of the roster is garbage and a huge net negative.

I happen to think our top 3 are pretty good but it's obvious they can't compensate when basically 2/3rds of the roster is practically unplayable.

The unique factor is that while team is at a crossroads, the 5 players of any value on the roster are 27 or younger. Only Wall & maybe Sato are in their primes. Beal & Porter are entering their prime years now. Oubre is still another 2-3 years away. You trade Beal or Porter, you may see a better version of them somewhere else as they continue to improve. Wall is the only guy on the roster that can literally go get you 25 & 10 in EVERY playoff game. Despite all the hate for him... how many players in the league can actually do that. Nate33, Payit? I would love to know that answer. Assuming where you guys tend to place him among others, I'd assume another 30-40 NBA players are capable of averaging those numbers in the playoffs?

I like our core. I strongly dislike the lack of creativity from our coaching staff and the years of ineptitude from the front office. I believe a good GM could blow up the rest of the roster and put together a cheaper, younger & more athletic supporting cast.

[dlts20]

Can we wait until after the series. We can still make this competitive

[pinkman7382]

I would try to move any piece that isn't Wall, Beal or Otto. That includes Sato and Oubre. Gortat is probably traded. Morris should be too. Mahinmi probably stays because of his contract. Find a way to acquire another 1st rd pick because the draft is deep. Use the 15th pick on a center. Find a 4 and a backup 2 in FA or via trades. Pray that Meeks or Smith don't pick up their player options. That's all I got

[gtn130]

Can we wait until after the series. We can still make this competitive

Lol

[pcbothwel]

Assuming we do lose this series in the next 3 games, there is another avenue besides a blow up.
1) GM: Some think EG is set and no way Ted fires him, but I could certainly see an situation where EG steps back even further and others get more say (At the request of Ted of course)

2) Coach/play-style: Like above, most here acknowledge that Ted cant fire Brooks this early into a huge contract. That said, we have other ways to change our coaching. Look at the very team that is killing us, the Raptors. Casey has been a TERRIBLE coach most of his career, so how are they all of a sudden communicating on D and jacking up 3's? They were embarrassed in the playoffs last year and made the concerted effort to make changes. Just saying, there is precedent for this.

3) Talent / Depth: Assuming no trade, I could see continued improvement by Otto and Oubre combining with Sato and Lawson to give us a strong depth at the 1-3. If we can bring Scott and Lawson back for cheap along with the 15th pick and possibly deep bench contributions from Sheldon Mac (He'll be back) and Devin Robinson... we might be okay from a depth POV.

That said, I think A team looking for a star/primary scorer/Harden-lite type player could pay big for Beal. I floated his name on the trade board and received some interesting trade offers:
Bulls: #6, Portis, Valentine
Philly: #10, #26, Holmes (If we take on bayless I think we get even more)

Id take that Bulls trade while throwing in Gortat (Or sending him elsewhere) and draft whoever falls out of Jackson, Porter, or Bamba. Then draft Smith at 15 and either Graham, Diop, Fernando, Frazier, or Carter at 44

Wall / Lawson / Graham
Sato / Valentine / Smith
Otto / Oubre / Valentine
Morris / Scott / Robinson
Mahinmi / Portis / Bamba

I keeps us out of the tax and with a Gobert type player in Bamba. That team isnt as top heavy without Beal, but has 10 legit NBA players on day 1... along with two very high ceiling wildcards in Smith and Bamba.

Hell, I wouldnt mind just keeping Gortat and sending Portis to another team for a top 35 pick to get Diop or Melvin Frazier.

After next year, we let Gortat and Morris walk and resign Oubre and Sato... still under the tax. Very big deal.

[nate33]

Wall is the only guy on the roster that can literally go get you 25 & 10 in EVERY playoff game. Despite all the hate for him... how many players in the league can actually do that. Nate33, Payit? I would love to know that answer. Assuming where you guys tend to place him among others, I'd assume another 30-40 NBA players are capable of averaging those numbers in the playoffs

I think Wall is somewhere around the 25th best player in the league.

And I think you are overstating Wall's production. He has averaged 25 and 10 in precisely one playoffs in his entire career. That said, he has certainly been our best player in this playoffs so far.

But whether or not Wall is the 15th best player or the 30th best player, and whether or not he averaged 25 and 10 and can be expected to do so going forward are secondary questions. The primary question I have for you is simple: do you think it's possible to build a contender with a team that features John Wall making 35% of the cap? And is it possible do so within the next 2 or 3 years before Wall's play declines? If the answer to either of those questions is no, then the course going forward is clear: trade Wall.

I think the answer to both questions is no.

Applying the same thought process: I think a team can win a championship with Porter or Beal making 25% of the cap, particularly since they may not yet have peaked and they have a much longer window in front of them before they decline. Therefore I wouldn't conclude that trading one of those guys is a prerequisite to putting us on a path to contention. I'd be open-minded to trading one or both if the value was right, but I'd also be content with keeping them and adding to them.

[NatP4]

Have a good draft. Attempt to bring in as many young players on rookie contracts as possible, acquire 2nd rounders, sign undrafted guys, get more athletic.

Wait out the end of Gortat/Mahinmi/Morris/Smith/Meeks contracts if you can’t get any draft picks for them. Surround Wall Beal Porter and Satoransky with all young players with upside.

Flip Oubre for another draft pick, I’ve given up on him, he’s too dumb.

Don’t sell the core, sell the supporting cast. That core is the reason you can still fix this thing, you don’t need to go hit on a superstar player, you just need to find a good big man, a Clint Capela and some decent young role players (like a Satoransky)

I don’t think Brooks is the man for the job though, he needs to go.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

TOR got swept in 2015 with their back-court, and now look at them. Wall, Beal, and Porter are great pieces, we just need to actually build a competent team around them. If that means trading 1 of them, so be it. We are really just a legit post player away from contending.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

...adding. EG should go, and that's the most important thing. It all starts there! Get a competent GM to evaluate and build.

add Kawhi. Beal & Porter for Kawhi, or Beal (or Porter) Oubre, and a 1st...anything really.

pick a package for Kawhi and we'll take Aldridge too.

Morris, 1st, Oubre, Beal, Sato all avaialble for package.

Wall, Kawahi, Porter, LA.... dreams

[nate33]

TOR got swept in 2015 with their back-court, and now look at them. Wall, Beal, and Porter are great pieces, we just need to actually build a competent team around them. If that means trading 1 of them, so be it. We are really just a legit post player away from contending.

They had a sustainable pay structure and cap flexibility to sign a $20M free agent (Ibaka) and a $7M free agent (Miles), all while keeping all of their picks and using them to draft wisely.

We are facing the luxtax this year and the repeater tax next year unless we trade away first round picks to dump salary. We have no room whatsoever for free agents who earn more than the vet minimum, we've traded away most of our future 2nd round picks, and two of our starters are gone in a year and we have no cap room to replace them because of their cap dollars will go to pay Wall's extension. Also, we have Ernie Grunfeld making our draft picks, and Ted Leonsis as the architect of the franchise's ethos.

[tontoz]

Until EG gets fired everything else is basically irrelevant.

[FAH1223]

TOR got swept in 2015 with their back-court, and now look at them. Wall, Beal, and Porter are great pieces, we just need to actually build a competent team around them. If that means trading 1 of them, so be it. We are really just a legit post player away from contending.

They had a sustainable pay structure and cap flexibility to sign a $20M free agent (Ibaka) and a $7M free agent (Miles), all while keeping all of their picks and using them to draft wisely.

We are facing the luxtax this year and the repeater tax next year unless we trade away first round picks to dump salary. We have no room whatsoever for free agents who earn more than the vet minimum, we've traded away most of our future 2nd round picks, and two of our starters are gone in a year and we have no cap room to replace them because of their cap dollars will go to pay Wall's extension. Also, we have Ernie Grunfeld making our draft picks, and Ted Leonsis as the architect of the franchise's ethos.

They can't trade away 1st round picks because they even realize now that the cupboard is bare off the bench.

The G-League affiliate will be a good thing regardless as well.

Getting rid of Mahinmi has to be priority #1 in the next year.

[nate33]

Here's the type of plan I'd be looking at:

This summer:
* Trade John Wall and Ian Mahinmi to Sacramento for expiring contracts (Zach Randolph and Iman Shumpert), and a 2019 1st. We would also create a $20M TPE in the process.
* Sign Ty Lawson and Lucas Nogueira
* Spend the rest of the offseason trying to trade Gortat and Morris for anything of value, being willing to take back an extra year of salary if necessary. Let's assume we end up dumping Morris and get back a late 1st plus a worthless player with a contract that expires in 2020. We get no bites on Gortat so we buy him out.
* Sign a vet backup PF on a 1-year deal. Scott would be great, but others could work.

Roster in 2018/19:

Lawson/Sato
Beal/Shumpert/Meeks
Oubre/D.Robinson
Porter/2018 1st/Mike Scott
Nogueira/Randolph/Smith

Brooks, who is a decent player development coach, continues to work with Oubre, Sato, Nogueira, Robinson and our pick while being a terrible in-game strategist. We probably miss the playoffs, but not necessarily.

Trade Deadline in 2019:
*Trade our $20M TPE for a bad contract and a 2019 1st round pick

Summer of 2019:
*Draft young player with our 2019 (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with Sacramento's (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with the 1st round pick acquired at the Trade Deadline for our TPE
*Extend Oubre
*Extend Sato
*Fire Brooks and get a good coach

Roster in 2019/20:

PG 2019 1st/Sato
SG Beal/2019 1st
SF Oubre/Sato
PF Porter/2018 1st
C Noguiera/2019 1st
Deep Bench: 2 crappy overpriced vets (acquired in trades above) with expiring contracts.

[nate33]

They can't trade away 1st round picks because they even realize now that the cupboard is bare off the bench.

Getting rid of Mahinmi has to be priority #1 in the next year.

These two statements are mutually exclusive.

[NatP4]

Rule number 1 in sports: never attach an albatross contract to your best player and franchise guy in a trade and diminish some of his value. Never.

No one is giving up a 1st for Morris, he sucks.

If we trade Wall, it’s gotta be for some really good young players and draft picks. Not just a salary dump and a future pick.

Reload not rebuild for me.

[nate33]

Rule number 1 in sports: never attach an albatross contract to your best player and franchise guy in a trade and diminish some of his value. Never.

No one is giving up a 1st for Morris, he sucks.

If we trade Wall, it’s gotta be for some really good young players and draft picks. Not just a salary dump and a future pick.

Reload not rebuild for me.

They wouldn't be giving up the 1st for Morris per se. They'd be giving it up to dump a $9M-ish contract that lasts until 2020. Morris' value in the trade is mostly that he is expiring.

I'd be all for a trade that swaps Wall for really good young players and draft picks. I just don't think it is likely. In this deal, I effectively get two picks (Sacramento's likely late lotto pick and a pick that I buy with the TPE and the cap room generated by dumping Mahinmi). Also, I temporarily make the team worse to improve our chances of getting a lotto pick by tanking. That's also why I keep Brooks around for 1 more year. Finally, I'm being realistic on the business end of things. Dumping Mahinmi saves Ted tens of millions of dollars in luxtax fees. That may not have value to us as fans, but it certainly helps Ted make up for the lost fan interest with Wall gone.

[Dat2U]

Wall is the only guy on the roster that can literally go get you 25 & 10 in EVERY playoff game. Despite all the hate for him... how many players in the league can actually do that. Nate33, Payit? I would love to know that answer. Assuming where you guys tend to place him among others, I'd assume another 30-40 NBA players are capable of averaging those numbers in the playoffs

I think Wall is somewhere around the 25th best player in the league.

And I think you are overstating Wall's production. He has averaged 25 and 10 in precisely one playoffs in his entire career. That said, he has certainly been our best player in this playoffs so far.

But whether or not Wall is the 15th best player or the 30th best player, and whether or not he averaged 25 and 10 and can be expected to do so going forward are secondary questions. The primary question I have for you is simple: do you think it's possible to build a contender with a team that features John Wall making 35% of the cap? And is it possible do so within the next 2 or 3 years before Wall's play declines? If the answer to either of those questions is no, then the course going forward is clear: trade Wall.

I think the answer to both questions is no.

Applying the same thought process: I think a team can win a championship with Porter or Beal making 25% of the cap, particularly since they may not yet have peaked and they have a much longer window in front of them before they decline. Therefore I wouldn't conclude that trading one of those guys is a prerequisite to putting us on a path to contention. I'd be open-minded to trading one or both if the value was right, but I'd also be content with keeping them and adding to them.

Can we win with John Wall at 30% of the cap? No, not under Grunfeld, no way no how. That's clearly been proven. If Wall was making the minimum, I'd still have no faith that Grunfeld could build a roster good enough around him. I dunno... like I said we are one quality big away from being at least in the conversation as contenders. I know that upsets PIF but we don't need a 13-deep roster like Toronto has. They aren't going to be able to keep everyone.

As for Wall declining... he's had a tough year due to injury but watching him at basically 80-85% right now --- he looks lightning quick, especially with the weight loss. He looks like Wall in his prime... I think he's athletic enough to lose one or two steps and still be one of the best athletes in the NBA. 2-3 years in the NBA is an eternity, I would not be making decisions based on a 27 yr old declining in a few years without evidence that he's beginning to do so.

The secondary problem is what do you replace Wall with and where does it leave us a franchise? You take Wall off this team and despite the nice month long run we had, we probably aren't a playoff team. Well then what? Hope the late lottery picks hit? Trading Wall doesn't automatically create cap room to sign someone as good or better.

As far cap "heck" - sorry I'm at work, lol. I keep bringing up Otto having the option to opt out in 2 years. I see no reason why he won't. That means we'll literally have one season where Wall's extension kicks in and were paying both Otto & Brad. Is that really worth all the hand wringing were doing now over this? I'd be more worried about losing Otto after 2 more years than anything else. After that, it's just basically John & Brad signed long term.

[Dat2U]

Here's the type of plan I'd be looking at:

This summer:
* Trade John Wall and Ian Mahinmi to Sacramento for expiring contracts (Zach Randolph and Iman Shumpert), and a 2019 1st. We would also create a $20M TPE in the process.
* Sign Ty Lawson and Lucas Nogueira
* Spend the rest of the offseason trying to trade Gortat and Morris for anything of value, being willing to take back an extra year of salary if necessary. Let's assume we end up dumping Morris and get back a late 1st plus a worthless player with a contract that expires in 2020. We get no bites on Gortat so we buy him out.
* Sign a vet backup PF on a 1-year deal. Scott would be great, but others could work.

Roster in 2018/19:

Lawson/Sato
Beal/Shumpert/Meeks
Oubre/D.Robinson
Porter/2018 1st/Mike Scott
Nogueira/Randolph/Smith

Brooks, who is a decent player development coach, continues to work with Oubre, Sato, Nogueira, Robinson and our pick while being a terrible in-game strategist. We probably miss the playoffs, but not necessarily.

Trade Deadline in 2019:
*Trade our $20M TPE for a bad contract and a 2019 1st round pick

Summer of 2019:
*Draft young player with our 2019 (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with Sacramento's (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with the 1st round pick acquired at the Trade Deadline for our TPE
*Extend Oubre
*Extend Sato
*Fire Brooks and get a good coach

Roster in 2019/20:

PG 2019 1st/Sato
SG Beal/2019 1st
SF Oubre/Sato
PF Porter/2018 1st
C Noguiera/2019 1st
Deep Bench: 2 crappy overpriced vets (acquired in trades above) with expiring contracts.

So we trade John Wall and we don't even get a draft pick until 2019? After he's likely made the team competitive? Oh come on man! I think the entire league would raise a huge eyebrow on that one.

[nate33]

Here's the type of plan I'd be looking at:

This summer:
* Trade John Wall and Ian Mahinmi to Sacramento for expiring contracts (Zach Randolph and Iman Shumpert), and a 2019 1st. We would also create a $20M TPE in the process.
* Sign Ty Lawson and Lucas Nogueira
* Spend the rest of the offseason trying to trade Gortat and Morris for anything of value, being willing to take back an extra year of salary if necessary. Let's assume we end up dumping Morris and get back a late 1st plus a worthless player with a contract that expires in 2020. We get no bites on Gortat so we buy him out.
* Sign a vet backup PF on a 1-year deal. Scott would be great, but others could work.

Roster in 2018/19:

Lawson/Sato
Beal/Shumpert/Meeks
Oubre/D.Robinson
Porter/2018 1st/Mike Scott
Nogueira/Randolph/Smith

Brooks, who is a decent player development coach, continues to work with Oubre, Sato, Nogueira, Robinson and our pick while being a terrible in-game strategist. We probably miss the playoffs, but not necessarily.

Trade Deadline in 2019:
*Trade our $20M TPE for a bad contract and a 2019 1st round pick

Summer of 2019:
*Draft young player with our 2019 (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with Sacramento's (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with the 1st round pick acquired at the Trade Deadline for our TPE
*Extend Oubre
*Extend Sato
*Fire Brooks and get a good coach

Roster in 2019/20:

PG 2019 1st/Sato
SG Beal/2019 1st
SF Oubre/Sato
PF Porter/2018 1st
C Noguiera/2019 1st
Deep Bench: 2 crappy overpriced vets (acquired in trades above) with expiring contracts.

So we trade John Wall and we don't even get a draft pick until 2019? After he's likely made the team competitive? Oh come on man! I think the entire league would raise a huge eyebrow on that one.

I really don't think you appreciate the negative value of John's contract. He'll be making $46M in 2022-23 when he is 32 years old. Frankly, I think we'd be pretty lucky to land Sacramento's pick in that package.