The Draft (Postseason Edition): 1/16/31/59 (NEW POLL)

[JMac1]

My comparison was more in line with their defensive abilities. Not with their mobility. I don’t care if someone is fast if they can’t play a lick of defense.

Can't is the key word. How about hasn't?

Most people here are can't people anyways so I shouldn't be surprise by that statement.

Well if he CAN and simply just hasn't, that's another issue. My I don't think that's necessarily the case.

Yea the issue is what he was asked to do at Duke..... See Josh Tatum.

At the end of the day, I really don't care how most here feel about Bagley, I'm done explaining why I prefer him over JJJ, everyone has their favorites. I just hope one of my four are wearing a Suns uniform come June 21st.

[Sunsfan12]

Lol! Okafor was immobile that’s why he couldn’t play D. But whatever.

Doesn’t matter if Bagley is more mobile if he can’t defend.

BS. Dude is big and mobile and active. If he did or didn't defend to your level of expectations there are many factors for his defense or lack thereof; But just to say he can't defend is a cop out. And Josh Jackson was a great defender, now he is horrible. They are so many factors involved from team defense to how much a player is held accountable.

I hear the same things about Doncic and Ayton and Trae.... Nobody can defend except Bamba and Bridges accroding to most. I see absolutely ZERO players getting drafted at the top because of their defense.

A great offense is a good defense.

You’re bashing me for not giving you details as to why he can’t defend but your not giving me details as to how he does. Are you coping out too?

It’s not BS. Amare was big mobile and active but he was a bad defender. Al Horford who is also slow like Okafor is a solid defender. I think we can agree on that. Mobility doesn’t translate to solid defensive fundamentals.

Doesn’t “nobody can” mean the same thing as can’t?

[JMac1]

Doesn’t matter if Bagley is more mobile if he can’t defend.

BS. Dude is big and mobile and active. If he did or didn't defend to your level of expectations there are many factors for his defense or lack thereof; But just to say he can't defend is a cop out. And Josh Jackson was a great defender, now he is horrible. They are so many factors involved from team defense to how much a player is held accountable.

I hear the same things about Doncic and Ayton and Trae.... Nobody can defend except Bamba and Bridges accroding to most. I see absolutely ZERO players getting drafted at the top because of their defense.

A great offense is a good defense.

You’re bashing me for not giving you details as to why he can’t defend but your not giving me details as to how he does. Are you coping out too?

It’s not BS. Amare was big mobile and active but he was a bad defender. Al Horford who is also slow like Okafor is a solid defender. I think we can agree on that. Mobility doesn’t translate to solid defensive fundamentals.

Doesn’t “nobody can” mean the same thing as can’t?

Amare was lazy. Mobility is everything on defense at every level in every sport. If you can't move, you can't get there. You have to be there in order to have a chance. Horford was never a Okafor on defense. Horford is mobile.

You said Bagley can't play defense. Don't get hot at me. You could have said he doesn't play defense, but he can't? You could have said he isn't motivated to play D or is lazy or something. But a big that moves like him can play D. How much and against who will vary, but he is capable of playing D.

[Saberestar]

Bagely also projects as a worse defender than Amare/Bosh. So keep in mind that if his offensive game doesn’t translate (NBA bigs are much better rim protectors than college bigs) then it will be a wasted pick. To me he is much more like Jahlil Okafor than those two. If he doesn’t develop his right hand or a 3 point shot he will be a bust.

I think that Bagley is probably the safest pick in this draft.

He screams "all around big" who can help on a lot of areas. Do not matter if he plays at PF or C, he can help on both positions.

He is sooo good around the rim that he is gonna create space for the perimeter players. And he has post moves and mid range game too.

He CAN shoot well from three.
.397 on 1.8 attempts per game...at 19 years old. It is a legend that Bagley can not shoot.

BTW, the "great" shooter JJJr shooted 4/14 (29%) from three on his last season at High School and 1.1 on 2.7 attempts (.396) at Michigan State.
What a big difference!

Bagley did not shoot well from the line (62.7%) but he shooted better in his last year in High School (67%).

His form is solid so I expect him to be a 70% FT shooter at least in the next few years.

He is skilled and has a solid ball handling for his size.

Amazing athlete who plays with intensity, effort and runs like a gazelle. And HARD WORKER.

As for shooting, Bagley got worse against tougher competition in conference play, shooting 33% from 3 on 1.7 attempts per game, whereas JJ Jr got better at 43% on 3.1 attempts per game. And the free throw discrepancy of 80% to 63% is huge and is usually the biggest predictor with how well you will shot from distance.

Sure, if you go back to high school Bagley was better in areas (like blocking shots for example) and JJ Jr wasn't as good, but I'm more impressed with guys that improve against tougher and higher levels of competition, not the ones who regress.

JJJr was terrible on tough games. He is raw even for the NCAA tournament.

His numbers in the last couple of games when the season was on the line? 4 points and 6 rebounds.

[In2ition]

JJJ is the type of player that would impact the game without taking shots away from others.

A typical game I expect would be around;
10 ppg
7-8 rpg (he does less perimeter roaming)
2-3 bpg

And maybe a 3pt here and there.
While actively protecting the paint.

Something the Suns need badly.

He sounds like a role player, not a star. He would be great to fill holes after getting your 3 superstars.

[Sunsfan12]

BS. Dude is big and mobile and active. If he did or didn't defend to your level of expectations there are many factors for his defense or lack thereof; But just to say he can't defend is a cop out. And Josh Jackson was a great defender, now he is horrible. They are so many factors involved from team defense to how much a player is held accountable.

I hear the same things about Doncic and Ayton and Trae.... Nobody can defend except Bamba and Bridges accroding to most. I see absolutely ZERO players getting drafted at the top because of their defense.

A great offense is a good defense.

You’re bashing me for not giving you details as to why he can’t defend but your not giving me details as to how he does. Are you coping out too?

It’s not BS. Amare was big mobile and active but he was a bad defender. Al Horford who is also slow like Okafor is a solid defender. I think we can agree on that. Mobility doesn’t translate to solid defensive fundamentals.

Doesn’t “nobody can” mean the same thing as can’t?

Amare was lazy. Mobility is everything on defense at every level in every sport. If you can't move, you can't get there. You have to be there in order to have a chance. Horford was never a Okafor on defense. Horford is mobile.

You said Bagley can't play defense. Don't get hot at me. You could have said he doesn't play defense, but he can't? You could have said he isn't motivated to play D or is lazy or something. But a big that moves like him can play D. How much and against who will vary, but he is capable of playing D.

You may want to watch Horford play. To say he is mobile is laughable. Is he active? Yes, but there is no speed to his game whatsoever. Activity matters more than mobility. As you pointed out with Josh Jackson. Dude is very mobile but he isn’t active enough on defense. He got better as the year went on because he was more active. He didn’t gain speed or mobility. Obviously you have to have some degree of mobility to play the game. That’s common sense.

I understand that he COULD play defense. That wasn’t my point. Then you proceeded to say “nobody can”... which means can’t... at the top of the draft save a couple. Pointing that out doesn’t mean I’m getting hot at you.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I think that Bagley is probably the safest pick in this draft.

He screams "all around big" who can help on a lot of areas. Do not matter if he plays at PF or C, he can help on both positions.

He is sooo good around the rim that he is gonna create space for the perimeter players. And he has post moves and mid range game too.

He CAN shoot well from three.
.397 on 1.8 attempts per game...at 19 years old. It is a legend that Bagley can not shoot.

BTW, the "great" shooter JJJr shooted 4/14 (29%) from three on his last season at High School and 1.1 on 2.7 attempts (.396) at Michigan State.
What a big difference!

Bagley did not shoot well from the line (62.7%) but he shooted better in his last year in High School (67%).

His form is solid so I expect him to be a 70% FT shooter at least in the next few years.

He is skilled and has a solid ball handling for his size.

Amazing athlete who plays with intensity, effort and runs like a gazelle. And HARD WORKER.

As for shooting, Bagley got worse against tougher competition in conference play, shooting 33% from 3 on 1.7 attempts per game, whereas JJ Jr got better at 43% on 3.1 attempts per game. And the free throw discrepancy of 80% to 63% is huge and is usually the biggest predictor with how well you will shot from distance.

Sure, if you go back to high school Bagley was better in areas (like blocking shots for example) and JJ Jr wasn't as good, but I'm more impressed with guys that improve against tougher and higher levels of competition, not the ones who regress.

JJJr was terrible on tough games. He is raw even for the NCAA tournament.

His numbers in the last couple of games when the season was on the line? 4 points and 6 rebounds.

Numbers like that are legitimate reasons to slow down the JJJ hype train. Dude is universally #2 on the stepien (and for good reason), but there is a real likelihood that he'll take some time, and time is something we don't really have at this point, especially when there are solid alternatives available.

All of this conversation makes me turn my attention back to Trae. If we can get solid defensively at positions 3-5, that's probably the most solid path forward to building a historically good team, if Doncic and Ayton are not available.

[bwgood77]

Numbers like that are legitimate reasons to slow down the JJJ hype train. Dude is universally #2 on the stepien (and for good reason), but there is a real likelihood that he'll take some time, and time is something we don't really have at this point, especially when there are solid alternatives available.

All of this conversation makes me turn my attention back to Trae. If we can get solid defensively at positions 3-5, that's probably the most solid path forward to building a historically good team, if Doncic and Ayton are not available.

Yeah, I have Trae #3. Point guards have shown serious adjustment time, but I think he makes the most difference in helping our whole team and PG is easily our biggest positional weakness right now that seems difficult to find a legit PG in free agency. Add in that 3 pt shooting is our other big area of weakness in addition to defense, he solves a positional need and a huge team weakness and takes pressure off of Booker. He also make JJ's job easier whereas a guy like Bagley might make things tougher for JJ, as well as duplicate the bad free throw shooting and likely bad perimeter shooting.

Which is why I have Porter right here in the conversation at 4 if is health checks out as well. For me it would be nice if I knew our FO had Trae at 3 on their board because that would likely mean we'd end up with him if we were at 3 or 4.

[thamadkant]

JJJ is the type of player that would impact the game without taking shots away from others.

A typical game I expect would be around;
10 ppg
7-8 rpg (he does less perimeter roaming)
2-3 bpg

And maybe a 3pt here and there.
While actively protecting the paint.

Something the Suns need badly.

He sounds like a role player, not a star. He would be great to fill holes after getting your 3 superstars.

Again... This is under the assumption Suns get pick 3 or 4.


A good role player who will anchor your defense is a great find at picks 3 or 4.

[kennydorglas]

That's why I only their NCAA stats against .500+ teams.
Josh Jackson for example had a +3 point increase in his PER against those teams.
This is the type of players you should go after.

[jcsunsfan]

College freshman stats.
11 points, 8 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 68% free throws, .200 from the three. 23 mpg
11 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 78% free throws, .396 from three. 21.8 mpg

Two players. Both 6-11 to 7-0 range. Both with wing spans in the 7-4 7-5 range. The first is Joel Embiid and the second is Jaren Jackson Jr.

I really like Bagley and I would not mind having him on the Suns at all. But evaluations have to be honest. Defense matters a lot in a big man. JJJr is ALREADY a significantly better defender than Bagley and has the physical tools that Bagley does not (length) to be much much better. Bagley has size, strength, and a motor. But that can only take you so far. For those who want to discount JJJr because of a couple of poor games at the end of the year, you will do it to your peril. He has a much better chance of being a AD type of player than Bagley does. Bagley simply does not have the physical tools or skill set. Bagley will be a rich man's Faried.

My concern about JJJr is that he will take more time than the Suns really have to give him to mature. Bagley will be a double-couble machine from day one. But in the end I think JJJr will be the better player.

These three players all have real potential.
1. Bamba: length, rebounding, defense.
2. JJJr: length, defense, scoring.
3. Bagley: scoring, rebounding

[TOO]

JJJ is the type of player that would impact the game without taking shots away from others.

A typical game I expect would be around;
10 ppg
7-8 rpg (he does less perimeter roaming)
2-3 bpg

And maybe a 3pt here and there.
While actively protecting the paint.

Something the Suns need badly.

Not at 3. It’s not like we are scoring at will.....gotta score too.

That's my prediction in the next two seasons.

With a ceiling of maybe 17ppg 10rpg 3bpg 1.0spg
A taller shot blocking Marion who anchors the defense like Draymond Green/KG

Definitely worth 3 or 4

So you think this dude is a hall of famer? Because thats basically what youre describing...

[In2ition]

Not at 3. It’s not like we are scoring at will.....gotta score too.

That's my prediction in the next two seasons.

With a ceiling of maybe 17ppg 10rpg 3bpg 1.0spg
A taller shot blocking Marion who anchors the defense like Draymond Green/KG

Definitely worth 3 or 4

So you think this dude is a hall of famer? Because thats basically what youre describing...

He will probably win 10 titles and 6 MVPs, for sure.

[kennydorglas]

Going with the Stepien's top10 ranking by Win Share rates:

Jaren Jackson
.500+ opp 1.99
.500- opp 2.57

Trae Young
.500+ 3.93
.500- 1.93

DeAndre Ayton
.500+ 4.39
.500- 3.06

Wendell Carter
.500+ 3.63
.500- 2.42

Marvin Bagley III
.500+ 4.74
.500- 2.23

Mikal Bridges *Junior - career totals*
.500+ 11.39
.500- 5.92

Mohamed Bamba
.500+ 3.49
.500- 1.31

Miles Bridges *Soph - career totals*
.500+ 4.48
.500- 4.69

[JMac1]

You’re bashing me for not giving you details as to why he can’t defend but your not giving me details as to how he does. Are you coping out too?

It’s not BS. Amare was big mobile and active but he was a bad defender. Al Horford who is also slow like Okafor is a solid defender. I think we can agree on that. Mobility doesn’t translate to solid defensive fundamentals.

Doesn’t “nobody can” mean the same thing as can’t?

Amare was lazy. Mobility is everything on defense at every level in every sport. If you can't move, you can't get there. You have to be there in order to have a chance. Horford was never a Okafor on defense. Horford is mobile.

You said Bagley can't play defense. Don't get hot at me. You could have said he doesn't play defense, but he can't? You could have said he isn't motivated to play D or is lazy or something. But a big that moves like him can play D. How much and against who will vary, but he is capable of playing D.

You may want to watch Horford play. To say he is mobile is laughable. Is he active? Yes, but there is no speed to his game whatsoever. Activity matters more than mobility. As you pointed out with Josh Jackson. Dude is very mobile but he isn’t active enough on defense. He got better as the year went on because he was more active. He didn’t gain speed or mobility. Obviously you have to have some degree of mobility to play the game. That’s common sense.

I understand that he COULD play defense. That wasn’t my point. Then you proceeded to say “nobody can”... which means can’t... at the top of the draft save a couple. Pointing that out doesn’t mean I’m getting hot at you.

Now you want to play the semantics game....You can be active all you want, you wont get there unless you are mobile. The fact that I have to explain this is getting kinda ridiculous. Active=moving Mobility=your ability to move. Pete Rose=Charlie Hustle, limit mobility, Lou Brock= I rest my case.

[lilfishi22]

JJJ is the type of player that would impact the game without taking shots away from others.

A typical game I expect would be around;
10 ppg
7-8 rpg (he does less perimeter roaming)
2-3 bpg

And maybe a 3pt here and there.
While actively protecting the paint.

Something the Suns need badly.

He sounds like a role player, not a star. He would be great to fill holes after getting your 3 superstars.

That's kind of my issue. He'd need to be KG or Gobert on defense for him to be that third star. That's a very tall order and I'm not sure I would project him out to be that. My thing has always been that if you're drafting in the top 5, you really want to swing big for a potential star player rather than good role players. If he deferred to 2019 for draft entrance, he'd have another year of experience under his belt, we'd presumably have our 3 stars with this draft's top pick (Booker, Ayton? JJ) and adding JJJ to that core would make a ton of sense.

[JMac1]

College freshman stats.
11 points, 8 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 68% free throws, .200 from the three. 23 mpg
11 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 78% free throws, .396 from three. 21.8 mpg

Two players. Both 6-11 to 7-0 range. Both with wing spans in the 7-4 7-5 range. The first is Joel Embiid and the second is Jaren Jackson Jr.

I really like Bagley and I would not mind having him on the Suns at all. But evaluations have to be honest. Defense matters a lot in a big man. JJJr is ALREADY a significantly better defender than Bagley and has the physical tools that Bagley does not (length) to be much much better. Bagley has size, strength, and a motor. But that can only take you so far. For those who want to discount JJJr because of a couple of poor games at the end of the year, you will do it to your peril. He has a much better chance of being a AD type of player than Bagley does. Bagley simply does not have the physical tools or skill set. Bagley will be a rich man's Faried.

My concern about JJJr is that he will take more time than the Suns really have to give him to mature. Bagley will be a double-couble machine from day one. But in the end I think JJJr will be the better player.

These three players all have real potential.
1. Bamba: length, rebounding, defense.
2. JJJr: length, defense, scoring.
3. Bagley: scoring, rebounding

I agree 100 percent. JJJ defense is better, however, Bagley offense is better. On projections, at least IMO, I think Bagley can become a better defensive of player than JJJ an offensive player. That's the exact reason I have no problem with Trae Young. Bagley has athleticism, which is a big factor in projecting defense. Just be sound.

Funny, after debating Bagley all day and watching more film of him, I am happy with a top three pick.

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[bwgood77]

Not at 3. It’s not like we are scoring at will.....gotta score too.

That's my prediction in the next two seasons.

With a ceiling of maybe 17ppg 10rpg 3bpg 1.0spg
A taller shot blocking Marion who anchors the defense like Draymond Green/KG

Definitely worth 3 or 4

So you think this dude is a hall of famer? Because thats basically what youre describing...

Well when someone is describing someone they would take at 3 or 4 in what is considered a stacked draft at the top, you'd hope their ceiling is potential hall of famer. The Stepien's Player Distribution Tool based on PIPM outrange of possibilities gives him a 16% chance of being a top 10 player in his top 3 seasons. I was messing around with it awhile the other day and was surprised at some of the outcomes that popped out. Even putting older players in like Booker, Jackson and other young players/rookies.... https://www.thestepien.com/player-distribution-tool/

[Blonde]

I approach the Bagley vs. Jackson Jr debate the same way I approached Tatum vs. Isaac last year. Go for all NBA upside in the top 5, not superstar role player upside. Bagley’s ceiling is higher than JJJ, but his floor is lower.

[JMac1]

I approach the Bagley vs. Jackson Jr debate the same way I approached Tatum vs. Isaac last year. Go for all NBA upside in the top 5, not superstar role player upside. Bagley’s ceiling is higher than JJJ, but his floor is lower.

Ding ding ding. Exactly. I wouldn't argue that. And I agree with you. Same with Bamba, his floor is higher than Young, but Young Ceiling is higher. For this Reason Doncic is number 1. High ceiling and floor. Ayton High ceiling and decent floor.